Martin Armstrong Discussion

[dysonlu]

Thought this was a pretty decent post by M.A. explaining his theory (the dollar strengthening first over the next while) vs what a lot of others think (dollar steadily weakening from this point).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/dollar-reality-end-of-petro-dollars/

I watched "The Forecaster" documentary last night and I started reading about his theories/forecasts today. (Never heard of him before .

That post is gold to me.  It nicely summarizes his view of the current situation.  And his scenario does seem to make sense.  But what I find to be pure gold is the following:

"People who have no real world experience in trading or seriously advising in the big leagues have way too much time on their hands to come up with theories that amount to just sophistry. You would not ask someone to operate on your brain because they smile nice or sound good but happen to be a piano player instead of a doctor. There are just some things you cannot understand without experience. That is why school is so bad in the social sciences (economics) beyond reading, writing, and math. It teaches theory – not reality."

I totally agree with him that Economics is a social sciences like psychology rather than pure science like math, where experience trumps theories any day.  But there are so many scholars in the domain who advocate Economics as a pure science, who act like charlatans pretending they know how economics work and pretending they know what they are doing but end up screwing up all the time.

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[deisik]

I totally agree with him that Economics is a social sciences like psychology rather than pure science like math, where experience trumps theories any day.  But there are so many scholars in the domain who advocate Economics as a pure science, who act like charlatans pretending they know how economics work and pretending they know what they are doing but end up screwing up all the time.

The history of LTCM as well as its ultimate and miserable collapse seems to be a sizzling example of this

Profits always trump prophets

[OROBTC]

...

Most economists who dare to make predictions have pretty poor records.  This has been studied to death, including (especially) economists and analysts at Goldman-Sachs.  At G-S, they issue their predictions, front-run their "muppet" clients, and then cash in.  Goldman is also the investment bank that paid Hillary $675,000 for three "speeches", funny how no one can produce a video or even ONE transcript.

It's really pretty disgusting.

Yet there are so few investments now that yield much, and yet the economy could go anywhere (up, down, inflation, deflation).  In many ways this is not a good time to invest for most.  Maybe the very well connected can make big money now.

At least Bitcoin and (physical) gold are somewhat beyond the range of the market manipulators.

[hdbuck]

At least Bitcoin and (physical) gold are somewhat beyond the range of the market manipulators.

gold markets (as in 'price', doesnt matter if its physical or not, because we talking market 'quotation' here no?) are rigged (at least) since bretton wood's exit.

and as for bitcoin, well there is literally nothing (not even 'regulation'! lel) stoping manipulators.

but it's all free market: people with incentives (eg. profit!) and resources (eg monay/algorithms) to manipulate, well, do manipulate.

all day err'day.

[iamnotback]

Thought this was a pretty decent post by M.A. explaining his theory (the dollar strengthening first over the next while) vs what a lot of others think (dollar steadily weakening from this point).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/dollar-reality-end-of-petro-dollars/

That post is gold to me.  It nicely summarizes his view of the current situation.  And his scenario does seem to make sense.

That MA blog post well summarized what had been explained in this thread by those who understood well MA's theme. Heck I first read about the dollar short phenomenon in MA's 2013 blog post. He wrote about it again in 2014.


Gold deadcat bounced to $1309 precisely as predicted. Now is threatening to break down through $1205 to make eventually lower lows below $1050.

Bitcoin is making its deadcat bounce now on the rumor of halving. Bitcoin has always been out-of-phase with gold, yet aligned on the secular trend. Remember buy the rumor, sell the news. Nothing has changed since Bitcoin's gold rush fever mania peaked at $1200 in 2013. A permabull would see the current pattern since the 2013 peak resembles the pattern since the April 2013 peak and crash that lead to the $1200 peak. So the permabull thinks Bitcoin is headed to $3000+ now. But the permabull fails to note that BTC did not make lower lows after the initial waterfall crash in April 2013, yet during the current declining pattern since the $1200 peak, BTC continued to make lower lows. Bitcoin can't enter a new goldrush fever now, as there is no impetus for it. The big money will sell on 100% gain off the $250 level. For example, Australia just sold 29,000 confiscated BTC because of the rise of the price.

We have a deadcat bounce same as for gold and all alternative assets, because the BREXIT will fail and thus we will get a deadcat rise on the Euro to 1.21 - 1.25 which will suck capital out of all the safe haven assets as speculators chase the stampede back into the renewed (erroneous) confidence in the Euro and Europe. MA predicted all these levels, and even the 1.16 reversal to 1.11. Everything has been playing out exactly as predicted by MA.

Bottoms are only reached with either a V bottom due to the permabulls capitulating short at the bottom and the massive short covering rally, or by a long drawn out U bottom. Neither of those have occurred yet for gold nor BTC. So the bottoms are much lower still.

r0ach will not believe until it happens.

When Trump is elected and especially given he will ignite trade and currency wars, this will turn the focus back towards the dollar and the deadcat bounce of the "Happy Days Are Here Again For Yurope" will be Dashed. And then by Q1 2017, the mad stampede back into the dollar safe haven and alternative assets. And that is when the $10 trillion short carry trade on dollars in corporate bonds and currency pegs will unravel, interest rates in the USA will go up and the scorched earth will be underway.

Prepare accordingly yours truly,
Iamnotback

P.S. It is possible that Bitcoin is not correlated to macro economics and is on its own path due to being a nascent technology. Anything is possible. I write my 2 cents about what I think is most probable. The current rise in Bitcoin is too fast (nearly vertical on the long-term view) and is not backed by a new mania. There is no reason for a mania to form now. The mania of global economic totalitarianism and safe haven seeking will start in earnest 2017. Also the instant micro-transactions might ignite the next mania in Bitcoin, but I doubt that is 2016:

For the moment Bitcoin is only a gambler's paradise, but the conversion to instant microtransactions is the key to launching it into mass adoption.

That is why the block chain size debate has been so contentious, because it is a battle over who (Chinese mining cartel + Blockstream, all controlled behind the curtain by the banksters) owns Bitcoin as it is scaled out.

China and others are looking to use BTC as a way to move capital out of the country into dollars, and TPTB created Bitcoin to entrap them ex post facto with the fully traceable public ledger and to simultaneously disrupt any national resistance to globalized digital currency. Thus any excuse they can use to pump up the price and dump on bag holders so as to provide more liquidity. Note the volume surge recently. If these large capital players have a macro economic contagion induced margin call, then BTC gets dumped. r0ach doesn't understand the importance of liquidity and how BTC has transitioned from 2013 P&D by the early miners to a capital controls evasion device.

...

But the permabull fails to note that BTC did not make lower lows after the initial waterfall crash in April 2013, yet during the current declining pattern since the $1200 peak, BTC continued to make lower lows.

...

In addition to the quoted point which is evident by studying the blue highlighted sections on the edited chart below, also notice historically on this chart Bitcoin must make a higher high than the highest high seen since the prior peak, before there is a confirmed breakout:

 (readers need to click the link for the image because a newbie's images don't appear)

Those prior blue peaks before the $1200 one, were extremely deep crashes followed by immediate reaccumulation evident by the higher lows and higher highs, i.e. "oh shit the sky is falling selll!... oh shit, no it is not buy!". Whereas the $1200 peak was a gradually increasing capitulation as the permabulls gradually capitulate evident by the lower lows and lower highs. And that capitulation is not complete, evidence r0ach and the other religious, irrational permabulls have to lose their BTC wealth first before the bottom is in. When ever you see a tinfoil hat married to an asset, that is evidence of market froth. When an asset is universally hated or has level-headed investors, then it is ripe for under-the-radar accumulation.

Obviously Bitcoin is only in a deadcat bounce or in a long-winded, gradually rising U bottom, not on the verge of some immediately imminent vertical rocket upwards past the prior $1200 peak.

Looks like there is strong support for BTC historically in the $5 - 10 range. The other range of support is in the $50 - $150 range, which the range I am expecting for the ultimate bottom. But < $10 is not impossible.

Also notice the same chart pattern for gold, where support is in the $600 - $850 range after breaking through support in the $1000 - $1100 range:

You also can't compare gold and Bitcoin because gold is a mature market who has already reached maximum market penetration.

The masses using Bitcoin is still a vaporware dream. Both gold and Bitcoin are used by the wealthy and stealthy to transfer large wealth covertly. They are both alternative assets for the wealthy, not for your average Joe Blow.

If the economy implodes and gold is actually spendable in it's native coin form, there will be no food on the shelves to buy with it anyway!

Refer to what I wrote in the prior post about a tinfoil hat (doom and extreme religion) permabull.

Obviously Bitcoin is only in a deadcat bounce or in a long-winded, gradually rising U bottom, not on the verge of some immediately imminent vertical rocket upwards past the prior $1200 peak.

It is possible that Bitcoin has U bottomed at $150 and will meander up to $1200 over the next several months.

A rocket shot to $3000+ is not in the cards this year.

If we do meander up to $1200, a flag 33 - 67% decline pattern is likely before advancing further.

I do hope for the U bottom scenario, because it means much more liquidity for altcoin moonshots, than the alternative crash scenario.

[STT]

At least Bitcoin and (physical) gold are somewhat beyond the range of the market manipulators.

The Bank of England selling off its gold reserves at the gold low was manipulation to do with bailing out some bank that had bet on a fall apparently.   I think it can be done but not long term on such a distributed market and obviously it was not a profitable diversion except in a political sense for certain people.  The people who hold Sterling lost value that day but they lose most years I guess so no big deal :/

[altcoinUK]

I don't like this bollocks at https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-numbers/

"Marty; your numbers are just incredible. Your number 17800 I thought would be elected. The Dow was above it and looked like it was preparing to take off. ... "

WTF? Why he needs this kind of nonsense with such hosanna from some random assholes? I have his private reports and I read his public blogs, but I can't remember he said anywhere anything about a DJIA 17.8K resistance. Anybody read anything from him about a DJIA 17.8K resistance?

In this particular instance even retail day traders like me could understand (i.e. without the input of Armstrong) and it was clear that the latest rally is a dead cat bounce. I probably even said in this blog that I expect DJIA is flattening out and pulling back. I have been almost as long on the market as Armstrong so by being on the market you learn to be calm and understand when the market is uncertain. Plus, all sane analysts like Caldaro and the rest say clearly that this is very much a bear market right now. So even my 4 years old grand daughter would started shorting from DJIA 18K 6 weeks ago and wouldn't fall for this latest bull trap. Why he needs such hosanna about fairly obvious numbers, when again, in fact he hasn't even said anything about the DJIA 17.8K resistance? (or I just completely missed that).

[pinky]

he hasn't even said anything about the DJIA 17.8K resistance?

Actually he did mention this, but in his private blog, not in the public. I warned people about taking any free advices on his public blog, it's great news source, but don't use it for trading, because sooner or later you'll get burned.

[OROBTC]

At least Bitcoin and (physical) gold are somewhat beyond the range of the market manipulators.

The Bank of England selling off its gold reserves at the gold low was manipulation to do with bailing out some bank that had bet on a fall apparently.   I think it can be done but not long term on such a distributed market and obviously it was not a profitable division except in a political sense for certain people.  The people who hold Sterling lost value that day but they lose most years I guess so no big deal :/

hdbuck & STT

I wrote somewhat resistant to manipulation, which is true.  If you buy physical gold, you are all set, resistant to manipulation (assuming you do not need to sell it soon).  And if the price has been held down, then you get your gold a little cheaper.

Re the Bank of England, that was (IIRC, which maybe I don't), that was more to save a bank or two over there.

Re almost everything else traded actively, yes, I agree that they are all manipulated.

*   *   *

The British Pound is going to be interesting to watch.  I heard at CNN that BREXIT now seems MOAR likely than BREMAIN.

We'll see.  Welcome to iamnotback to the Armstrong thread.   

[altcoinUK]

he hasn't even said anything about the DJIA 17.8K resistance?

Actually he did mention this, but in his private blog, not in the public.

I said in my post "I have his private reports and I read his public blogs". I am a paying customer of him. Even I attended his last conference. Anyway, doesn't matter what I do, but I said "I have his private reports". So in which private blog he mentioned the DJIA 17.8K? I might overlooked it, just tell me in what paid material he said what and I will check it.

I warned people about taking any free advices on his public blog, it's great news source, but don't use it for trading, because sooner or later you'll get burned.

WTF are you talking about? I posted in this forum many weeks ago that the latest DJIA 18K is a dead cat bounce and the short is the trade from there. What kind of burning are you talking about by presenting your infinite wisdom? Stop being so smart, especially if you have no idea about the market or just answer the question or say nothing.

I was not talking about the merit of his analysis. If you can read, you can see, I said that the DJIA pull back was obvious. What I was talking about, and not first time questioning/pointing out, why does he need this used car salesman approach when sockpuppets praise him by posting hosanna about his skills. He earned his reputation in the late 90s during the Russian crisis. He doesn't need such obvious shilling.

[deisik]

Gold deadcat bounced to $1309 precisely as predicted. Now is threatening to break down through $1205 to make eventually lower lows below $1050

Wow, that guy must have been reading my posts

Gold is the primary driver of all PMs (more so for silver, less for palladium and platinum). <...> Unless the US gov decides on another round of QE, I'm still expecting the price to hit sub-$1,050 level...

Not until then will I look into gold again

[pinky]

So in which private blog he mentioned the DJIA 17.8K?

Since you are so polite you will have to find it by yourself, but it's not that hard.

[freshman777]

Gold deadcat bounced to $1309 precisely as predicted. Now is threatening to break down through $1205 to make eventually lower lows below $1050

Wow, that guy must have been reading my posts

Gold is the primary driver of all PMs (more so for silver, less for palladium and platinum). <...> Unless the US gov decides on another round of QE, I'm still expecting the price to hit sub-$1,050 level...

Not until then will I look into gold again

You both talk about paper promises. Paper promises can go to zero, this is not relevant to the real world price of gold.

[deisik]

Gold deadcat bounced to $1309 precisely as predicted. Now is threatening to break down through $1205 to make eventually lower lows below $1050

Wow, that guy must have been reading my posts

Gold is the primary driver of all PMs (more so for silver, less for palladium and platinum). <...> Unless the US gov decides on another round of QE, I'm still expecting the price to hit sub-$1,050 level...

Not until then will I look into gold again

You both talk about paper promises. Paper promises can go to zero, this is not relevant to the real world price of gold.

Okay, if the "paper promises" hit the ground, real gold has nothing to do with that, I got it. But if they hit the sky, what then? Does it really cut only one way, walk only one side, Möbius style?

[altcoinUK]

You both talk about paper promises. Paper promises can go to zero, this is not relevant to the real world price of gold.

I don't think TPTB_need_war was talking about paper gold. When we talk about gold in this topic, normally we refer to gold related stocks such as gold miners, like GDX, GDL, GDXJ which normally reflect very accurately the gold price. Similarly, when we say buy oil then we talk about WTI and the likes. Armstrong is a market trader so we talk about stocks in relation to the market.

[altcoinUK]

So in which private blog he mentioned the DJIA 17.8K?

Since you are so polite you will have to find it by yourself, but it's not that hard.

First you give me a nonsense reply, then you are butthurt. It seems you are not even a payee customer of Armstrong. You just wanted to be smart by telling who should read what, so don't be surprised if your silly smartness is pointed out.

[pinky]

So in which private blog he mentioned the DJIA 17.8K?

Since you are so polite you will have to find it by yourself, but it's not that hard.

First you give me a nonsense reply, then you are butthurt. It seems you are not even a payee customer of Armstrong. You just wanted to be smart by telling who should read what, so don't be surprised if your silly smartness is pointed out.

It seems to me that you must suck at trading, since you are such a nervous person only searching for conflicts.

[iamnotback]

I hope you aren't planning on holding fiat during 2018 when the Rothschild owned magazine - The Economist, has all fiat currencies in flames.

Did you know that shelby wrote 6 and 8 years ago about that Economist magazine article entitled, “Get Ready for the Phoenix,”.

Don't delude yourself into thinking you know anything that Shelby didn't already know.

This means you would likely only get one single year (2017) for your possible deflationary decline of assets

Even if you believe 2017 will be a deflationary year for asset prices,

Then you have the other inconvenient truth that you believe there will be massive capital flight to the US dollar as the last bastion of hope.  Since Bitcoin is the king of capital flight, it would actually benefit EVEN MORE in your deflationary, capital flight to the US scenario.

I have never written that Bitcoin will decline in 2017. I don't know why you think that. I have always said it would be between 2015.75 and Q1 2017 if it occurs.

It has been explained to you many, many times already that the deflationary contagion after ZIRP ends (when the private sector loses confidence in government and stops buying sovereign bonds) will drive all private assets up, including Bitcoin, gold, the dollar, and USA stocks. After 2017.9, the dollar and stocks will peak then crash as well, then the ongoing rise is likely to be in gold and CC as we will have a monetary reset at some point 2018+ (but maybe not completed until 2024). The interim adjustment phase from the public confidence in government we have now and the stampede change of direction, is what can cause a liquidity selloff in private assets, before their big move gets underway in 2017. MA named this phenomenon, "The Slingshot Move", because first there is a sharp false move to the downside with a V bottom and slingshot to the moon thereafter.

So any precipitous and sharp decline in gold and Bitcoin is between now and Q1 2017. After that, it is upwards.

, but it's not going to happen for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is an emerging market; it is not gold whose market penetration is already maxed out.

 it makes zero difference for Bitcoin because it's the equivalent of a small cap equity that can do +2-10x at any time and far outweigh any deflation.

Being a small cap is a double-edge sword. On the upside it means larger gains. On the downside, it means larger declines.

Being a small cap, Bitcoin is super vulnerable to macro contagion that impacts the whales.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Bitcoin may have U bottomed and may meander up to $1200 over next months, then it might crash 33 - 67%, before renewing its move up in 2017. Or Bitcoin may not have bottomed yet, and may crash again to $150 or below before moving up to $1200 and beyond.

Those are the only two scenarios I see as likely based on both the chart analysis and also on the reality of lack of impetus for a gold rush mania for BTC in 2016. The probability of Bitcoin rocketing up now past $1200 and through the $3000 moonshot is very, very unlikely.  That will come later in 2017 or 2018, not now.

The trick is to jump off the Bitcoin train to other cryptocoins right before TPTB take it down

This Freshman777 guy is a shill account created in the year 2016 to try and hype IPO scamcoins.  You can stop pretending your propaganda works.  Nobody believes a damn word from your shill accounts (probably all operated by Come from Beyond).

A price move from $550 to $1200, is only a double for BTC holders. Ethereum and other ICO holders have earned 10 and 100 baggers interim.

I don't agree with freshman777 that TPTB will shut down BTC. Why would they do that when it is the greatest spying tool they ever created. They are getting the Chinese taipans to incriminate themselves by moving illicit funds through the traceable Bitcoin. Thus these taipans will be beholden to the TPTB to prevent their jail time. This is all about collecting more control over the wealth of the world by TPTB. Bitcoin is a Trojan Horse. And if you think I am going to standby and let them succeed, then you don't know me very well.

Now I will be gone. Have the last word, but please don't twist my words. Read carefully what I have written.

[altcoinUK]

The Nonfarm Payrolls came in substantially lower than expected. The dollar dropped with gold rising, but the Dow did not crash on the open in the same percentage move. So what is really going on here?
The economy is in a transition phase that is the same as what took place during the 1920s. Back then, the combustion engine displaced workers in many fields. Suddenly, a tractor could replace 100 farmhands. Today, we have the internet wiping out stores as Amazon changed the face of bookstores and publishing. Robots are displacing workers on a major scale.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/upside-down-statistics-what-is-down-maybe-up/


Cheers Marty :-)) You could tell this a bit earlier :-)) because I started to buy VIX and UVXY yesterday evening by expecting a weak Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Anyway, I am not buying the CNBC mantra which says exactly same what Armstrong does: the robotics and automation is the reason of the weak job data and there is a shift in the society, the institutional and retail investors are so smart that see that all, and such infinite knowledge about automation and robotics prevents the crash. Robotics my ass. None of my broker friends have a clue about automation and robotics, but they execute more and more trades for the Chinese and Russians. Most likely the capital flow - that Armstrong predicted a long time ago - started and that keeps the market in a relatively healthy shape.

[iamnotback]

As MA predicted, the bounce off 1.11, to continue the deadcat moonshot to 1.21+ on the BREXIT "Remain" result before the collapse of the Euro to 0.85: