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sidhujag
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Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
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June 28, 2016, 05:40:19 AM |
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I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is what he wrote on June 17th in his private blog @ ask-socrates.com:  "The Dow reacted strong back from the brink, but it was not quite strong enough just yet. The Weekly Bullish now stands at 17915 and the Weekly Bearish is 17580 on our minor model. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 17900 and the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 17437. We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 17579 and a June closing beneath 17790 will indicate the market is still positioned neutrally. This is the same number showing up on indicators for the Quarterly timing level. A June closing beneath 17037 will signal a break to retest the support perhaps creating a September low. To imply a breakout requires a June closing above 18137.50 to hint that we may run into a September high crossing the 20,000 level." For me the way I interpreted this was to short the market under the assumption that we would either elect those reversals or come very near to electing them (basically viewing them as a target), and hold over the weekend if it looked like the numbers were going to be elected as Friday came to a close. On late Friday afternoon we were still well below his weekly reversal of 17580, so I held UVXY and sold it today over 16$. That's over a 40% profit. The reason I sold is because I expect the DOW to rise back up to test his Minor Monthly Bearish reversals @ 17579 by Thursday, and because common sense simply tells me that markets tend to consolidate after big swings like that. Holding over the weekend was somewhat risky (I hate holding over the weekend), but according to his 1% rule (which basically says the narrower you elect the reversal by, the stronger the signal) I was relatively safe to assume there would be a little bit more energy pushing the market slightly lower on Monday's opening. This worked perfectly for me, so I'm really having trouble understanding all the scepticism here. Martin's reversal system seems to work. except if it keeps going down you miss out on the big run which is the one you want.. better you cut half take 20% and let the rest ride. |
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Lateralus
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June 28, 2016, 07:31:41 AM |
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except if it keeps going down you miss out on the big run which is the one you want.. better you cut half take 20% and let the rest ride.
Good point, but still a 40% trade is nothing to laugh at, and I prefer to play it relatively safe and watch the monthly reversals. |
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iamnotback
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June 28, 2016, 08:50:04 AM |
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Dollar rally still ahead (Q4 2016?), and possible lower lows in gold and corrections in crypto-currencies: which warns that everything can flip against the EU come early July. We have also been warning of a coming dollar rally that will make the dollar bears’ noses bleed from vertigo. The critical monthly closing support remains at 13660 in the cash pound against the dollar. A June closing beneath this level will confirm the dollar rally is beginning in a broader trend.
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Things will be moving into August/September. June was a Directional Change and that seems to have been on target along with our computer’s forecast years in advance.
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August looks to be rather chaotic. We should begin to see other countries move more rapidly for referendums. As this process begins, we should begin to see the realization that the euro is in crisis; not the pound.
We can see that the Yearly Bearish we elected at the 116 level at year-end 2015 has proven to be dramatic. We rallied back to retest the 116 level, which took a little longer, but it has fallen sharply and we can see the trend is in motion for a big dollar rally.
QUESTION: Marty; I have been reading your blog on gold and get all your reports. One things that I have notices was this 1206 number. Back in 2013, it was important back then. Here it showed up again in 2015. This seems to be an amazing number. Can you explain why. ANSWER: Today, it seems to be 1206. True, it was appearing in 2013 and now again it has emerged once again. It has now become a Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Bearish. So it is migrating to more levels in time. I am not entirely sure that we can predict if such numbers in advance will be the ones to reappear time and again. It is a phenomenon that warrants more investigation. Since this model is physics based it is complex. Sometimes it will produce a high or low precisely or within a few ticks. The Monthly Bullish from the December low has remained unchanged at $1362. We warned back on February 11 that $1362 was the top of the range for gold that it had to exceed: “The Monthly Bullish stands up at 1362. That is what we need to elect to suggest that a change in trend is possible.” It is fascinating to watch the precision within markets. I always have to laugh when people try to attack me in the same manner as other analysts, claiming I am wrong for one reason or another when these numbers are not what I “think” and they are certainly not my opinion. They simply exist within any market.  Many comments and emails are pouring in that our model correctly forecast BREXIT years in advance. Here is the picture for the next big chaos period — the US Presidential Election in November. You can see that 3 out of 4 models show a Republican victory. I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is what he wrote on June 17th in his private blog @ ask-socrates.com: "The Dow reacted strong back from the brink, but it was not quite strong enough just yet. The Weekly Bullish now stands at 17915 and the Weekly Bearish is 17580 on our minor model. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 17900 and the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 17437. We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 17579 and a June closing beneath 17790 will indicate the market is still positioned neutrally. This is the same number showing up on indicators for the Quarterly timing level. A June closing beneath 17037 will signal a break to retest the support perhaps creating a September low. To imply a breakout requires a June closing above 18137.50 to hint that we may run into a September high crossing the 20,000 level." For me the way I interpreted this was to short the market under the assumption that we would either elect those reversals or come very near to electing them (basically viewing them as a target), and hold over the weekend if it looked like the numbers were going to be elected as Friday came to a close. On late Friday afternoon we were still well below his weekly reversal of 17580, so I held UVXY and sold it today over 16$. That's over a 40% profit. The reason I sold is because I expect the DOW to rise back up to test his Minor Monthly Bearish reversals @ 17579 by Thursday, and because common sense simply tells me that markets tend to consolidate after big swings like that. Holding over the weekend was somewhat risky (I hate holding over the weekend), but according to his 1% rule (which basically says the narrower you elect the reversal by, the stronger the signal) I was relatively safe to assume there would be a little bit more energy pushing the market slightly lower on Monday's opening. This worked perfectly for me, so I'm really having trouble understanding all the scepticism here. Martin's reversal system seems to work. |
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tabnloz
Legendary
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Merit: 1000
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June 28, 2016, 09:34:28 AM |
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Interesting aspect to note is that the USD and Gold have both strengthened (as per vid below). Goes against the current line of thought but maybe a double safe haven play as currency wars & EU bank debt worries linger? TPTB_needswar: That's not to say it will continue but unless there is some miraculous central bank inspired magic trick coming, how does gold plummet after this? For me MA was the first I heard saying that this US Pres cycle is the year of the outsider, first to say Trump would be nominee, first I heard say about uprising movements. Also first to say that a pension crisis is looming as rates stay so low. Following on, here is a good discussion regarding brexit etc https://realvisiontv.com/landing/brexitI noticed they mentioned the possibility of investors piling into UST's and abandoning Eu area govt bonds, another trend MA mentioned a long while back. edit: just saw this Mario Draghi: "We have to think not just about the composition of policies within our jurisdictions, but about the global composition that can maximize the effects of monetary policy so that our respective mandates can best be delivered without overburdening further monetary policy.....This is not a preference or a choice. It is simply the new reality we face.” This means a formal Shanghai Accord, don't see how it solves anything or how it can last. |
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iamnotback
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June 28, 2016, 08:26:51 PM |
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TPTB_needswar: That's not to say it will continue but unless there is some miraculous central bank inspired magic trick coming, how does gold plummet after this?
Strong dollar = crashing gold (at least initially) Trump victory will also support a strong dollar. |
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tabnloz
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June 29, 2016, 08:57:00 AM |
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TPTB_needswar: That's not to say it will continue but unless there is some miraculous central bank inspired magic trick coming, how does gold plummet after this?
Strong dollar = crashing gold (at least initially) Trump victory will also support a strong dollar. What I was trying to get at was the question talked about in the video: USD & Gold both increased on Brexit vote, so does this indicate that a sovereign debt crisis in Europe (if that what it morphs into) is the reason for this trend, against current thinking? |
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Lateralus
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June 30, 2016, 08:51:25 PM |
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Ok so looks like were closing for June around 17900 in the DOW, which unfortunately is between Martin's two numbers giving us no real signal. (Again, written on June 17th, on this private blog @ ask-socrates.com). 1. "...a June closing beneath 17790 will indicate the market is still positioned neutrally." 2. "To imply a breakout requires a June closing above 18137.50..." According to these two comments, the market is no longer positioned neutrally and yet at the same time it not positioned for a breakout. Either this is simply poor wording on Martin's part, or we should take this to mean we are now in a relatively bullish position but not enough to suggest a likely break out just yet (which may also mean we still a have a little more bearish energy to expect in the immmediate short term). This is why I'm really excited for the trader version of Socrates to come out, as when the trader preview was still being updated I was able to see the reversals and arrays in real time and didn't have to depend on Martin who sometimes make these unfortunate contradictions in his comments. Further, he made another update on the DOW today, this time on his public blog (Again Martin can't seem to make up his mind, does he want to charge people money for this information or does he want to keep giving it away for free as he's always done?): https://i.imgur.com/aTAxJx5.png"Here is our original technical projection from the 1987 low that we made while looking forward into the end of this private wave (51.6-year) target of 2032. Looking where we are right now, that is the top two price numbers showing 853315 on the bottom and 2264160 on the top. This remains our next primary target zone up in the 22,000-23,000 level. We just have to wait for a Monthly Bullish Reversal at 18104 to be elected. However, the 3rd quarter of 2016 is when volatility should start to rise. We have the US political elections and conventions are happening this summer, so expect the markets to get choppy. It is unlikely for a breakout at this time and we have no real Quarterly Bullish Reversals (18137) or Monthly (18104) within striking distance for today. Below the market gives us some concern to watch the important levels at 17579 and 17115. We have technical support during July at 17480 so this can become resistance if we close below it today. The 17120 level is still critical on our weekly model. A close below that on Friday will warn we are breaking down for the Summer, probably over the political instability with the US elections. This would become a possibility if we see a closing below 17579 today. For now, it does not seem we are ready for the breakout. It appears we have to still see the US elections as one influence, but then we have the EU crisis as its counter-balance. This will be determined by the numbers." I've taken a relatively small short position this afternoon (UVXY @ 9.51), as I expect the market to make a move lower by tomorrow or monday. The weekly bullish reversal is 17915 according to the private post Martin made on June 17th. Here are the various moves I plan to make, depending on how this plays out: 1. If it looks like we're going to narrowly fail to elect the weekly bullish reversal (17915) at tomorrow's close (within 1%) then I will hold my short position over the weekend and maybe even add to it. For those not familiar, see Martin's video on the 1% rule: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/instructional-video-reversals-1-rule/2. Depending on how low we go tomorrow I may just sell my position for a quick profit, especially if we get near his first technical support number without actually crossing it (17579). 3. If we continue to rally tomorrow I will begin to sell off my position at a loss early in the day, although like I said in my opinion a continued rally is unlikely without first consolidating and then bouncing off of Martin's technical support @ 17579. |
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iamnotback
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July 02, 2016, 06:26:29 AM |
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Hope everyone saw this: The dollar should make a reaction down during the US elections on uncertainty.
So looks like the strong dollar surge won't be until Q1 2017. It is unclear if gold is going to rise or fall with the dollar. Ditto Bitcoin. Volatility will surge, especially as the Fed (or the market) begins to raise interest rates in the USA. |
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OROBTC (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
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July 02, 2016, 03:50:30 PM |
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TPTB_needswar: That's not to say it will continue but unless there is some miraculous central bank inspired magic trick coming, how does gold plummet after this?
Strong dollar = crashing gold (at least initially) Trump victory will also support a strong dollar. What I was trying to get at was the question talked about in the video: USD & Gold both increased on Brexit vote, so does this indicate that a sovereign debt crisis in Europe (if that what it morphs into) is the reason for this trend, against current thinking? Yup, a rising dollar usually does mean a fall in the price of gold. But, not always! I forget who, but one of the commentators I read says that when BOTH the US$ and gold go up (sharply), "The End is Near". So, there. Now you all know a signal to watch for. |
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VERUMinNUMERIS
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July 02, 2016, 08:17:57 PM |
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There are exceptions to every economic rule and we are in a manipulation phase where that will happen a lot.
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trollercoaster
Legendary
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Activity: 1050
Merit: 1001
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July 04, 2016, 09:58:27 PM |
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sloanf
Jr. Member
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Activity: 64
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July 05, 2016, 06:36:51 AM |
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Martin Armstrong is a total and absolute con artist and a charlatan. He's been babbling about rising rates since 2013, right? https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/interest-rates/54580/ He said the rates would rise starting from 2013 and "The longest would be 2015." Well, the rates not only not rising, they keep falling (and this is 2016!) and recently hit all time low. And the Fed is not raising rates contrary to MA bs predictions. Note, this is not a short-term forecast where MA is always wrong, this is a long-term story. Don't you guys see how flawed his bs ECM model is? It does not work, and never did. The same goes with his reversal random bs system. There's no computer (even if there was, it doesn't work anyway, so who cares), it's all him throwing random shit, flip-flopping, lying, etc, and hoping something will eventually work, but it doesn't. Poor Marti and his brainless drooling sheeps. |
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altcoinUK
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July 06, 2016, 12:47:09 AM |
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... are always long and short at the same time.
We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot. Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics. I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be. Hey did you buy options of vix or gdx on Friday I was scrambling to try to get my old brokerage account but it's been years since I played equities I really wanted to buy some dog options for 2 week expiry.. shit I bet I missed the boat. If you did hold that shit near to u. I still had my VIX and UVXY. I said last week in this thread that I am not going to sell them, because I don't agree with Armstrong's bullish projections nor with other bulls. Luckily Brexit worked out for me (an other bears) as my VIX and UVXY options calls and spread betting longs are in a very fine shape :-) though I was totally expecting a Bremain, even I was thinking to close them at 10 PM when the first polls projected a big win for Bremain. Luckily the Newcastle result quickly came and that sent the futures down in no time. By 2 AM I was drinking and celebrating Brexit, and the crashing market. Yea some of my friends made millions shorting pound.. the.big move is still to come imo I am not one of those big boyz who trade with millions and I rarely open larger trades than £15-20K, but this is a different time. I have already shorts on GBP and I will open a 200 point size short Monday morning. I can get it from my broker for £110K, which is a very reasonable margin price. I just need a serious hedge which I don't know what will be. I guess shorting 2 Years UK or 10 years Germany bonds could be a hedge for this, but we need to think through this. If the Pound goes to 1.265 which I think eventually it will, then the net profit is £200k, at 1.165 GBP/USD rate the profit is £400k. I see this as a very low risk trade, especially with bond hedges. Currently we are at 1.365 with the Pound which is only an 8% drop from the pre Brexit price. I think we should have at least 15% drop. Soros and many other can see it falls to 1.15 which is another 2100 points drop from the current rate. Surely, it must be fall from the current 1.365, otherwise this is the mother of all bear trap. A few retailers will be flushed out before it goes down, but it cannot stay this current high level for long. Well i fully expect the stock market to crash these next few weeks(wish i could get in on this, but no broker and takes time to set one up) so if it does then the pound will be the hardest hit.. so we can see it in a few days imo... lets see the gap down on sunday. You can open an account with IG here in the UK in 10 minutes and in the US as well. Their margins are too brutal for me, normally I make money with 1-2% gains which don't fit into their margins, but they are quite convenient if you don't trade every day. What do you think about my GBP shorting? :-))))) I am 800 points up as we speak since last week. Brexit is great. It's like a broken slot machine that keeps give out the money. The most hilarious is my hedging. I am hedging the pound short with GDX long, which is up as well. :-))))) this is the luckiest trade ever though the GBP drop was very obvious. Having such obvious tardes, I am wondering, why people bother with the completely unpredictable BTC trade, when we have a fairly predictable equity and forex market? It was no rocket science to understand that the Pound must fall further. Still people don't make such obvious trades. Like from 2012 to 2015, when the free QE money was driving up the market - free money all over the place. |
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altcoinUK
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July 06, 2016, 01:10:27 AM |
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He said the rates would rise starting from 2013 and "The longest would be 2015." Well, the rates not only not rising, they keep falling
Interest rates have nowhere to go in the longer-run except up, you idiot. Armstrong has predicted what any rational individual could predict and he had expected that the FED will fulfill its duties. Even Armstrong couldn't imagine that the sockpuppets of Goldman Sachs in the FED and ECB are so corrupt that they keep the interest rates so long so low. That is unprecedented you idiot - don't expect Armstrong can second guess the most corrupt and dishonest institutions of our age, the FED and ECB. |
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libertad
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July 06, 2016, 01:44:17 AM |
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Is MA still calling for gold to drop below $900? That call doesn't seem likely at this time.
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sloanf
Jr. Member
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Activity: 64
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July 06, 2016, 04:04:10 AM |
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He said the rates would rise starting from 2013 and "The longest would be 2015." Well, the rates not only not rising, they keep falling
Interest rates have nowhere to go in the longer-run except up, you idiot. Armstrong has predicted what any rational individual could predict and he had expected that the FED will fulfill its duties. Even Armstrong couldn't imagine that the sockpuppets of Goldman Sachs in the FED and ECB are so corrupt that they keep the interest rates so long so low. That is unprecedented you idiot - don't expect Armstrong can second guess the most corrupt and dishonest institutions of our age, the FED and ECB. getta f. out of here you brainless parrot. MA claims it's not him, it's his super computer with thousands years of data that makes all those forecasts, so none of your bs "Armstrong has predicted what any rational individual could predict and he had expected" and "don't expect Armstrong can second guess" is relevant. Furthermore, MA claims that there are no manipulations, markets can't be rigged, etc., so your arguments with the FED, ECB or anything along those lines are as always poor and weak. Anyway, it was a wrong forecast no matter what, period. Of course the rates will eventually go up, your don't have to be a genius to figure it out. The big question is when, and MA is just three years wrong. Well, given his appalling track record, three years for such a lousy fraudster Martin Armstrong is nothing. As long as sheep like you keep sending him money and attend his bs conferences. |
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iamnotback
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July 06, 2016, 06:14:07 AM
Last edit: July 06, 2016, 07:20:38 AM by iamnotback |
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That was not a prediction. Good find. Note that is not a prediction of his computer model. It is him pontificating off-the-cuff in one dimension with Pi cycles. But we know his model incorporates multi-dimensional (multiple cycles) wave interference. It is epitome of idiocy to criticize that which you haven't even bothered to comprehend. That you don't even know the basics of what I have written in the prior paragraph, you continue to display that you are not interested in the truth, but rather in some useless, non-factual, non-analytical smear campaign. Also, rates have already been rising! But you don't realize that, because you are not very smart. Central banks cannot “control” long-term rates. All they can do is try to “influence” it by buying debt in an attempt to reduce the supply. But they cannot FIX LONG-TERM rates. That is purely a market function. Capital is running away from government debt. The bondholders have been willing to sell this to them and many are starting to shift to corporate debt. Many pensions have started that process while others have tried to buy emerging debt with higher yields.
sloanf, you have basically failed at a simple math problem that you would find on an 8th grade math exam. When we say "interest rates rising", then the only objective measure is the weighted average of all money invested in bonds/loans of all types. So when capital starts shifting from 0% sovereign debt (leaving the Fed as the main buyer) to higher yielding corporate or emerging market debt, then even though the interest rates for those peripheral bonds declines, the weighted average increases. Please STFU your trolling smear campaign, and go back to middle school. |
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