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god.aur
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October 29, 2016, 01:23:22 PM
 #421

Just to set expectations for the results of today's parliamentary elections in Iceland:

  • The Pirate Party is definitely not going to win as in becoming the biggest political party,
  • however, the bloc (APSV) controlled by the Pirates has a 58% chance of winning the majority of seats in the Althingi,
  • augmented to a 98% chance if the right-liberal C party joins the bloc, as they have been invited to, while
  • the current (BD) majority is 98% guaranteed to fall, and
  • the only majority not including the Pirates (BCD) is 42% likely.

For the mathematically inclined, here are the results of a statistically rigid Monte Carlo simulation based on a weighted and probability-distributed set of the latest polls:
http://kosningaspa.is/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/thingmannaspa28-9.png

Key to the figure:
The red line denotes the cut-off for a majority in the 63-seat Althingi
APSV=the Pirate-led (P) bloc
BD=the currently reigning parties
C=the new right-wing liberal (wildcard) party
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RJF19
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October 29, 2016, 01:51:00 PM
 #422

Just to set expectations for the results of today's parliamentary elections in Iceland:

  • The Pirate Party is definitely not going to win as in becoming the biggest political party,
  • however, the bloc (APSV) controlled by the Pirates has a 58% chance of winning the majority of seats in the Althingi,
  • augmented to a 98% chance if the right-liberal C party joins the bloc, as they have been invited to, while
  • the current (BD) majority is 98% guaranteed to fall, and
  • the only majority not including the Pirates (BCD) is 42% likely.

For the mathematically inclined, here are the results of a statistically rigid Monte Carlo simulation based on a weighted and probability-distributed set of the latest polls:


Key to the figure:
The red line denotes the cut-off for a majority in the 63-seat Althingi
APSV=the Pirate-led (P) bloc
BD=the currently reigning parties
C=the new right-wing liberal (wildcard) party


Interesting analysis, always more than meets the eye. But, I would refrain from using the word "definitely" when speaking of anything political...

Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time. Thomas A. Edison
god.aur
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October 29, 2016, 02:13:52 PM
 #423


Interesting analysis, always more than meets the eye. But, I would refrain from using the word "definitely" when speaking of anything political...


I stand by it in this case. The cumulative probability density plot for the number of MPs for individual parties can be found here:
http://kosningaspa.is/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/thingmannaspa28-7.png

The statistical difference between the Pirates (P) and the Independence Party (D) is really quite exorbitant.

The Pirates remain the most likely to lead a government coalition, though.
RJF19
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October 29, 2016, 02:22:23 PM
 #424


Interesting analysis, always more than meets the eye. But, I would refrain from using the word "definitely" when speaking of anything political...  Smiley


I stand by it in this case. The cumulative probability density plot for the number of MPs for individual parties can be found here:
http://kosningaspa.is/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/thingmannaspa28-7.png

The statistical difference between the Pirates (P) and the Independence Party (D) is really quite exorbitant.

The Pirates remain the most likely to lead a government coalition, though.

And that's really what matters.

Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time. Thomas A. Edison
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October 29, 2016, 02:55:05 PM
 #425

Let's say the pirate party does form a coalition or outright wins majority seats, what would be considered a reasonable time frame for Bitcoin and Auroracoin to become legal tender if they announced that was their first priority and the process for such a thing to be enshrined in law? 6 months, a year?
god.aur
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October 29, 2016, 04:04:13 PM
 #426

Let's say the pirate party does form a coalition or outright wins majority seats, what would be considered a reasonable time frame for Bitcoin and Auroracoin to become legal tender if they announced that was their first priority and the process for such a thing to be enshrined in law? 6 months, a year?

The Icelandic regulatory framework is gradually becoming clearer already now, largely thanks to the work of the Auraráð Foundation (Auroracoin Foundation Iceland). We already have preliminary rulings to the effect that digital currencies are treated equally to other currencies for transaction and trading purposes.

However, Iceland is also bound by the rulings of the European Court of Justice as part of the European Economic Area. Most importantly, the ECJ Hedqvist case from October 2015 pretty much puts digital currencies on equal footing with traditional currencies:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/bitcoin-virtual-currency-exchange-is-tax-free-eu-court-says-ig21wzcd

With only the slightest sliver of reservation it can be said that digital currencies are already legal tender in Europe even if they're not sovereign money. (In the US, however, the situation is entirely different, but that's another story.)
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October 29, 2016, 09:18:59 PM
 #427

Thanks for all the valuable info you posted above.

Allow me a remark on one thing, though:

With only the slightest sliver of reservation it can be said that digital currencies are already legal tender in Europe even if they're not sovereign money.

Your "slight sliver of reservation" looks like "strong doubt" on my side: "legal tender" usually refers to "anything which when offered in payment extinguishes the debt.".

This is not the case for bitcoin. It's also not the case for gold bars or houses or our beloved Auroracoin.

The german bundesbank offers another definition:

Legal tender is the means of payment that nobody can refuse to settle a monetary obligation without experiencing legal disadvantages.

For the case of germany they state some legal fact:

Quote
In Germany, banknotes denominated in euro are the sole unrestricted legal tender.

Not even coins are legal tender in germany without restriction. The obligation to accept them is limited.

Surely one can refuse to accept cryptocurrency for settlement of debt. Otherwise I could pay my taxes in potcoin, which would be outrageous, no?



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October 29, 2016, 10:05:07 PM
 #428

I suppose there is a difference between 'legal tender' and 'accepted tender'. For example, I have paid my tax liabilities by cheque in the past, even though that is not considered 'legal tender'.  Huh

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_tender

Scaling and transaction rate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306
Do not allow demand to exceed capacity. Do not allow mempools to forget transactions. Relay all transactions. Eventually confirm all transactions.
god.aur
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October 29, 2016, 10:27:13 PM
 #429

To make things even more convoluted, anybody can issue their own euros (for example), simply by writing an IOU. This is effectively what banks do, making their version of the currency (theoretically) less valuable than euros issued by the ECB (sovereign money), simply because the private banks are less reliable issuers.
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October 29, 2016, 10:39:16 PM
 #430

To make things even more convoluted, anybody can issue their own euros (for example), simply by writing an IOU. This is effectively what banks do, making their version of the currency (theoretically) less valuable than euros issued by the ECB (sovereign money), simply because the private banks are less reliable issuers.

Both yes and no. I could write an IOU for a thousand euro's on one piece of paper, and write a 1000 euro's on another piece of paper, but I doubt anyone would accept the latter. But yes, this is what banks do with fictional reserve banking. They credit one account with a 1000 euro's, and debit another account for a 1000 euro's at the same time.

Scaling and transaction rate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306
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October 30, 2016, 08:02:41 AM
 #431

Looks like the Pirate Party are 3rd at this point, what is the official time for the end of the vote?

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/elections-2016-results/

























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AngryDwarf
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October 30, 2016, 09:15:25 AM
 #432

Looks like the Pirate Party are 3rd at this point, what is the official time for the end of the vote?

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/elections-2016-results/

When the votes are officially counted! Expected early today though.

Scaling and transaction rate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306
Do not allow demand to exceed capacity. Do not allow mempools to forget transactions. Relay all transactions. Eventually confirm all transactions.
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October 30, 2016, 05:17:15 PM
 #433

Coalition in the pipeline?

























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apcoins
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October 30, 2016, 05:55:26 PM
 #434

Coalition in the pipeline?

Nothing at the moment, only news are the president that holds the power to assign coalition discussions will talk first to the Independence party that got the highest votes
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October 30, 2016, 06:51:54 PM
 #435

The Pirates will likely be frozen out of a coalition.
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October 30, 2016, 08:08:06 PM
 #436

The Pirates will likely be frozen out of a coalition.

Independence party have 21 seats.

Left Green Movement have 10 seats.

Majority vote in the last government was 38, i'm assuming it's gonna be roughly the same.

That does leave them short of seats.

The Pirate Party gained 10 seats, do you think it's possible for a 3 party coalition? they would be short on a majority vote with 31 seats.

























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adamastor
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October 30, 2016, 08:17:34 PM
 #437

The Pirates will likely be frozen out of a coalition.

Independence party have 21 seats.

Left Green Movement have 10 seats.

Majority vote in the last government was 38, i'm assuming it's gonna be roughly the same.

That does leave them short of seats.

The Pirate Party gained 10 seats, do you think it's possible for a 3 party coalition? they would be short on a majority vote with 31 seats.

I don't see the Pirates being part of any coalition.  More work needed.
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October 31, 2016, 01:37:05 AM
 #438

I think it's good that the Pirate party didn't win this election. I'm an Pirate party supporter my self
Winning the next one will be better Smiley

There are many things that can go wrong here in the next 4 years and it would all been blamed on the Pirate party. because many people here fear the Pirate party, guess who? Cheesy

I'm 25 years old and my generation is getting really tired of the corruption here, more and more young Icelanders are moving out of the country thanks to high interest rates on loans
and over priced apartments. The health care system is been cut down, the police and the education. the food price is going up, they increase tax on food from 7% to 11% so they can decrease tax on
electronics :/  they say that the purchasing power is up and every one is happy, nothing has happened and everything is on the right track. except they are for getting the young people, old people, the disabled people, the police, the whole health care system and education system.

it will be interesting to see how they are going to fix all these problems when they don't even want to pay their taxes
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October 31, 2016, 02:03:35 AM
 #439

I think it's good that the Pirate party didn't win this election. I'm an Pirate party supporter my self
Winning the next one will be better Smiley

There are many things that can go wrong here in the next 4 years and it would all been blamed on the Pirate party. because many people here fear the Pirate party, guess who? Cheesy

I'm 25 years old and my generation is getting really tired of the corruption here, more and more young Icelanders are moving out of the country thanks to high interest rates on loans
and over priced apartments. The health care system is been cut down, the police and the education. the food price is going up, they increase tax on food from 7% to 11% so they can decrease tax on
electronics :/  they say that the purchasing power is up and every one is happy, nothing has happened and everything is on the right track. except they are for getting the young people, old people, the disabled people, the police, the whole health care system and education system.

it will be interesting to see how they are going to fix all these problems when they don't even want to pay their taxes


I see you have the similar problems as in the USA, that 1950s generation sure don't want to let us run the world.

Babyboomers messed up the world, blame us, and now we have to fix it so they can enjoy their retirement  Angry
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October 31, 2016, 10:29:18 AM
 #440

It will take a few days to find out what coalition will be formed.

There will have to be 3-5 parties in coalition to create any government in Iceland. We have had a history of two parties creating a coalition government but 3 or more party government has never held and always crumbled.

Most likely results are a 1 person majority of (Indipendance party, Regeneration and Bright Future) or 3 person majority (Pirates, Regeneration , Bright Future, Left-Green, Social Democratic)

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/elections-2016-results/


"Lost coins only make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone". Satoshi Nakamoto
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