Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 10, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
The market continues to settle into this 580 - 600 $ range as positioning for the next breakout move intensifies. Given that Bitfinex will reopen operations within the next 48 hours, we are expecting volatility to pick up at least a little bit which very well could drive us out of this trading zone. A move out of this area will likely lead to a 30 $ move in either direction (550 $ if we break down, 630 $ if we break up), but is unlikely to go beyond that in our opinion.
Moving on to the technicals, we can see on the daily chart below that price is rolling over right around a historical resistance line, the bottom of the pivot area, and at the 9 EMA. Additionally, there is a volume profile notch just overhead and market structure is coming in bearish, while trading volumes continue to confirm the move to the downside last week. Lastly, notice that SCMR is painting red candles again while also showing multiple reversal cancellations over the past few days. This is not a great sign for the bulls, but is also not a death knell.
Despite these bearish indications, it is not all bad news for the bulls at this time. Notice that Willy is now testing the centerline while in a slight uptrend, RSI remains pinned in the lower half which means that there is room to run to the upside, and PPO is still painting bright green bars (a bullish signal). Also, MACD is still showing a substantial bullish divergence from the washout last week and is now challenging the zeroline, while the A/D line continues to press to the upside. Finally, it now appears that we could be in yet another triangle consolidation with a midpoint right around current levels. This might help explain the stagnation we have seen over the past week as players resign themselves to the fact that we may be at fair value for the time being.
All things considered, we do not want to alter our forecast in any significant way at this time. Near term caution, medium term neutrality, and longer term bullish bias are how we continue to view the market at this time. Until we get a breakout from this 580 - 600 $ range we will remain patient in letting the market come to us, however if price does make a move then the key levels to watch are 550 $ to the downside and 630 $ to the upside. To reiterate, we would continue to employ a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality for shorter term scalp trading while we continue to wait for lower prices to add to the longer term positions.
More charts, reports, and our slack channel here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/