Bitcoin Forum
December 04, 2016, 10:25:42 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

Pages: « 1 ... 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 [125] 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509072 times)
myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
December 13, 2012, 11:35:48 AM
 #2481

press alt+v and check your weekly candles O H L C against bitcoincharts raw data for example

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
1480847142
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480847142

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480847142
Reply with quote  #2

1480847142
Report to moderator
1480847142
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480847142

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480847142
Reply with quote  #2

1480847142
Report to moderator
1480847142
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480847142

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480847142
Reply with quote  #2

1480847142
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480847142
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480847142

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480847142
Reply with quote  #2

1480847142
Report to moderator
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
December 13, 2012, 06:33:51 PM
 #2482

in the end, the starting date does not matter as market psychologies and overall trends do not change with choosing an specific starting time
But for you, I moved the starting date by one day so you are happy :-)


http://bit.ly/qJDsYw

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
December 13, 2012, 08:29:48 PM
 #2483

in the end, the starting date does not matter as market psychologies and overall trends do not change with choosing an specific starting time
But for you, I moved the starting date by one day so you are happy :-)


Look at your candles and look at the real data, where are your weekly close ? how come u get green candle when there should be red ? also you are using moving average envelope that use the weekly close price but your weekly close price is not even near the real data, you do what you want but at least use the real data, i am out i am done with this ........





/out and subject is dead for me

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
ArticMine
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792


Monero Core Team


View Profile
December 13, 2012, 08:48:24 PM
 #2484

in the end, the starting date does not matter as market psychologies and overall trends do not change with choosing an specific starting time
But for you, I moved the starting date by one day so you are happy :-)


Look at your candles and look at the real data, where are your weekly close ? how come u get green candle when there should be red ? also you are using moving average envelope that use the weekly close price but your weekly close price is not even near the real data, you do what you want but at least use the real data, i am out i am done with this ........





/out and subject is dead for me


I looks to me like these charts are from different time zones.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
December 13, 2012, 09:50:13 PM
 #2485

my candles start on Mondays and last until Sunday night in the weekly charts.

I would be happy to change it to whatever day you think is better :-)

that said, I think most regions count their week from Monday to Sunday.. so we better keep consistency

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
December 14, 2012, 05:42:27 PM
 #2486


accumulation on the daily chart confirming the bitcoin price rally in the bitcoin chart:
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
lucif
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


Clown prophet


View Profile
December 15, 2012, 02:25:58 PM
 #2487

This is special short term update. Awaiting huge bear pennant confirmation with almost all requirements met, including huge negative rsi, macd, volume divergences. Textbook target is $5. Have a nice bitday.

S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
December 15, 2012, 03:59:25 PM
 #2488

This is special short term update. Awaiting huge bear pennant confirmation with almost all requirements met, including huge negative rsi, macd, volume divergences. Textbook target is $5. Have a nice bitday.



this is one alternative, indeed

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
lucif
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


Clown prophet


View Profile
December 15, 2012, 04:32:22 PM
 #2489

Yep. I noticed when your forecasts do not follow the volume, market shows huge opposite reaction.

People, speculate on that Wink
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
December 15, 2012, 04:41:54 PM
 #2490

Yep. I noticed when your forecasts do not follow the volume, market shows huge opposite reaction.

People, speculate on that Wink

no worries. my subscribers are always one step ahead. I gave a warning alert just a few minutes before the drop from 13.8 to 13$  :-)

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
Yuhfhrh
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile
December 15, 2012, 07:27:47 PM
 #2491

Yep. I noticed when your forecasts do not follow the volume, market shows huge opposite reaction.

People, speculate on that Wink

no worries. my subscribers are always one step ahead. I gave a warning alert just a few minutes before the drop from 13.8 to 13$  :-)

You caused this to happen!  Cheesy
smoothie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834


LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


View Profile
December 15, 2012, 09:04:16 PM
 #2492

Yep. I noticed when your forecasts do not follow the volume, market shows huge opposite reaction.

People, speculate on that Wink

no worries. my subscribers are always one step ahead. I gave a warning alert just a few minutes before the drop from 13.8 to 13$  :-)

Right, as if you knew it was going to happen.

Let's only highlight when you are right and not when you are wrong.

lol  Cheesy

Pretty bold statement saying "always". This is a sign that someone has an ego problem.

"My subscribers are ALWAYS one step ahead."


███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
        ,p████████████████████N,       
      d█████████████████████████b     
    d██████████████████████████████æ   
  ,████²█████████████████████████████, 
 ,█████  ╙████████████████████╨  █████y
 ██████    `████████████████`    ██████
║██████       Ñ███████████`      ███████
███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
December 15, 2012, 10:08:11 PM
 #2493

a bit off topic, but this is an interesting read on the fiscal cliff negotiations:

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/09/opinion/logan-fiscal-cliff/index.html?hpt=ibu_r1

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
sturle
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1418

http://bitmynt.no


View Profile WWW
December 18, 2012, 06:46:19 PM
 #2494

I have been watching the trade feed from MtGox for currencies other than USD, and have noticed very different behaviour for traders using USD compared to other currencies.  While the USD traders keep selling, often large amounts in bulk, traders keep buying in other currencies.  GBP, EUR and AUD are especially active.  The prices in GBP, EUR and AUD are almost constantly 2.5% higher, which is where the currency's bid meets USD ask.  (Asks are matched from the USD order book, and exchanged at a 2.5% fee.  This is shown as mixed currency in the feed.)  Large USD sales are often satisfied from bids from the other currencies, and followed by large buys in other currencies.  Recently, when the price hit 13.9 USD, the buying from 13.5 and up was mostly done in non-USD currencies.  Same thing happened when a 10k sale for USD, followed by other large sales in USD, made the price drop below 13 USD.  Large AUD buys pushed the price back up to 13.3 USD.  The last week 18716 BTC was bought in AUD, 10359 BTC bought in GBP and 6767 BTC bought in EUR from the USD order book at a 2.5% fee.  Mostly triggered by bids in those currencies, but also by market sales in USD.  There were no matches in the other direction (where an order from another currency was matched against the bid side of the USD order book).

Is this significant?  Why are the USD users so very pessimistic, while the users of other currencies are so very optimistic?  Is it just dumb users buying BTC in other currencies, while the USD market is speculators selling?  I assume most serious investors would do a currency exchange in their own bank when transferring to get a better rate than the 2.5% MtGox offers.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
ArticMine
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792


Monero Core Team


View Profile
December 18, 2012, 07:14:08 PM
 #2495

I have noticed the exact opposite with CAD with Canadian buyers being very pessimistic with Virtex, the Canadian exchange trading almost always a few % below the MTGox USD price. In Canada's case my theory is that the cold Canadian winter combined with relatively low electricity rates makes Canada very attractive for Bitcoin mining. This leads to Canada being a net exporter of Bitcoins.

Australia should be a net importer for the exact opposite reason to Canada being a net exporter, especially during the Australian summer. One can also argue that the EU could be a net Bitcoin importer because of fear over the Euro.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
sturle
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1418

http://bitmynt.no


View Profile WWW
December 18, 2012, 09:06:50 PM
 #2496

I have noticed the exact opposite with CAD with Canadian buyers being very pessimistic with Virtex, the Canadian exchange trading almost always a few % below the MTGox USD price.
Comparing the price at two exchanges directly doesn't work for several reasons.  BTC-E is always lower as well.  Bitcurex and Intersango are ususally below MtGox EUR price (compared to USD it is more mixed).

Australia should be a net importer for the exact opposite reason to Canada being a net exporter, especially during the Australian summer. One can also argue that the EU could be a net Bitcoin importer because of fear over the Euro.
Currently the USD is doing much worse than any of the listed currencies.  This may actually be a reason why people choose to keep their own currencies when transferring to MtGox.

I don't think mining is an important factor here.  The volume in those three currencies alone is far higher than the mining rate.  Could be trade balance, if the sellers trade in USD and the people who pay with Bitcoin come from all over the world.  Winter in Europe creates a high demand for alpaca socks, of course. Smiley

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
December 18, 2012, 09:30:55 PM
 #2497

We offer new services at cheaper prices down to 0.99 BTC per month.

More here: http://bit.ly/U77heH

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086



View Profile
December 19, 2012, 12:04:20 AM
 #2498

I have been watching the trade feed from MtGox for currencies other than USD, and have noticed very different behaviour for traders using USD compared to other currencies.  While the USD traders keep selling, often large amounts in bulk, traders keep buying in other currencies.  GBP, EUR and AUD are especially active.  The prices in GBP, EUR and AUD are almost constantly 2.5% higher, which is where the currency's bid meets USD ask.  (Asks are matched from the USD order book, and exchanged at a 2.5% fee.  This is shown as mixed currency in the feed.)  Large USD sales are often satisfied from bids from the other currencies, and followed by large buys in other currencies.  Recently, when the price hit 13.9 USD, the buying from 13.5 and up was mostly done in non-USD currencies.  Same thing happened when a 10k sale for USD, followed by other large sales in USD, made the price drop below 13 USD.  Large AUD buys pushed the price back up to 13.3 USD.  The last week 18716 BTC was bought in AUD, 10359 BTC bought in GBP and 6767 BTC bought in EUR from the USD order book at a 2.5% fee.  Mostly triggered by bids in those currencies, but also by market sales in USD.  There were no matches in the other direction (where an order from another currency was matched against the bid side of the USD order book).

Is this significant?  Why are the USD users so very pessimistic, while the users of other currencies are so very optimistic?  Is it just dumb users buying BTC in other currencies, while the USD market is speculators selling?  I assume most serious investors would do a currency exchange in their own bank when transferring to get a better rate than the 2.5% MtGox offers.

You seem to be approaching the analysis with the assumption that the motivation for trade is buyiing/selling bitcoins.

It may make sense if you consider that the large trades are for users who want to change from one fiat currency to another, and they are using bitcoin/MtGox as the vehicle for doing that (for various reasons). I.e. what you are describing might be simply the market moving money out of euros/aud/gbp and into/repatriating usd?

sturle
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1418

http://bitmynt.no


View Profile WWW
December 19, 2012, 07:02:53 AM
 #2499

It may make sense if you consider that the large trades are for users who want to change from one fiat currency to another, and they are using bitcoin/MtGox as the vehicle for doing that (for various reasons). I.e. what you are describing might be simply the market moving money out of euros/aud/gbp and into/repatriating usd?
That doesn't make sense.  Paying 2.5% + trade fee for currency conversion?  And often when it is already known that the AUD/GBP/EUR price will be much better the next day, making the effective conversion fee more than 3% in the USD -> currency direction?  (MtGox only change their exchange fee once a day.)  Even credit cards have better exchange rates, and the timing is exceptionally bad.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086



View Profile
December 19, 2012, 08:23:26 AM
 #2500

It may make sense if you consider that the large trades are for users who want to change from one fiat currency to another, and they are using bitcoin/MtGox as the vehicle for doing that (for various reasons). I.e. what you are describing might be simply the market moving money out of euros/aud/gbp and into/repatriating usd?
That doesn't make sense.  Paying 2.5% + trade fee for currency conversion?  And often when it is already known that the AUD/GBP/EUR price will be much better the next day, making the effective conversion fee more than 3% in the USD -> currency direction?  (MtGox only change their exchange fee once a day.)  Even credit cards have better exchange rates, and the timing is exceptionally bad.

Some users may be quite happy to pay the 3% for the user-defined anonymity features of bitcoins ....

Pages: « 1 ... 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 [125] 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!