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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509304 times)
sturle
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December 19, 2012, 10:13:05 AM
 #2501

It may make sense if you consider that the large trades are for users who want to change from one fiat currency to another, and they are using bitcoin/MtGox as the vehicle for doing that (for various reasons). I.e. what you are describing might be simply the market moving money out of euros/aud/gbp and into/repatriating usd?
That doesn't make sense.  Paying 2.5% + trade fee for currency conversion?  And often when it is already known that the AUD/GBP/EUR price will be much better the next day, making the effective conversion fee more than 3% in the USD -> currency direction?  (MtGox only change their exchange fee once a day.)  Even credit cards have better exchange rates, and the timing is exceptionally bad.
Some users may be quite happy to pay the 3% for the user-defined anonymity features of bitcoins ....
Obviously, which is one reason to buy coins.  Deposits of that size triggers identity verification, and if you just use MtGox as a currency exchange between fiat currencies you don't get any anonymity.  Just a very expensive currency exchange.  At least 4% including two trade fees and the known rate change, which is even more than PayPal charges.  People using AUD, GBP and EUR are buying coins, not changing from one fiat currency to another.

This change of sentiment happened after Bitcoin-Central announced their deal with a PSP.  This was even announced on the BBC, and may have increased belief in and knowledge about Bitcoin in Europe, while it seems some Americans have reacted negatively to the news.  Many of my regular customers bought a lot after the news came out (NOK and EUR), and put me temporarily out of funds on the exchanges (doesn't happen often).  AUD users have always been buying more than selling, and it may be that they as well had a positive reaction to the news.   This is just one possible explanation.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
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S3052
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December 19, 2012, 08:51:37 PM
 #2502

It may make sense if you consider that the large trades are for users who want to change from one fiat currency to another, and they are using bitcoin/MtGox as the vehicle for doing that (for various reasons). I.e. what you are describing might be simply the market moving money out of euros/aud/gbp and into/repatriating usd?
That doesn't make sense.  Paying 2.5% + trade fee for currency conversion?  And often when it is already known that the AUD/GBP/EUR price will be much better the next day, making the effective conversion fee more than 3% in the USD -> currency direction?  (MtGox only change their exchange fee once a day.)  Even credit cards have better exchange rates, and the timing is exceptionally bad.
Some users may be quite happy to pay the 3% for the user-defined anonymity features of bitcoins ....
Obviously, which is one reason to buy coins.  Deposits of that size triggers identity verification, and if you just use MtGox as a currency exchange between fiat currencies you don't get any anonymity.  Just a very expensive currency exchange.  At least 4% including two trade fees and the known rate change, which is even more than PayPal charges.  People using AUD, GBP and EUR are buying coins, not changing from one fiat currency to another.

This change of sentiment happened after Bitcoin-Central announced their deal with a PSP.  This was even announced on the BBC, and may have increased belief in and knowledge about Bitcoin in Europe, while it seems some Americans have reacted negatively to the news.  Many of my regular customers bought a lot after the news came out (NOK and EUR), and put me temporarily out of funds on the exchanges (doesn't happen often).  AUD users have always been buying more than selling, and it may be that they as well had a positive reaction to the news.   This is just one possible explanation.

by the way, over the past 5-7 days, the Euro gained 3-4 % vs. the USD. Did you consider this as potential reason?

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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sturle
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December 19, 2012, 10:56:29 PM
 #2503

by the way, over the past 5-7 days, the Euro gained 3-4 % vs. the USD. Did you consider this as potential reason?
Yes, and it should have the opposite effect.  People should hold their EUR knowing it will buy more BTC (from the USD order book) the next day.  Perhaps even sell for EUR and hope to buy back cheaper because USD is the dominant currency in BTC trading.  Unless they think BTC will be cost at least 0.5% more in USD the next day.  Which means the EUR, GBP and AUD buyers must have very strong belief in price increase.  And I assume the opposite is true for the USD users who are selling, because they are not selling for EUR, GBP or AUD.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
S3052
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December 21, 2012, 07:08:29 PM
 #2504

Is The NASDAQ Close To The End Of The World?
http://bit.ly/Wv5Qqc

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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cypherdoc
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December 21, 2012, 07:11:10 PM
 #2505

Is The NASDAQ Close To The End Of The World?
http://bit.ly/Wv5Qqc


nice post.  geezus, you sound like me.  but what did lucif call us?
lucif
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December 21, 2012, 07:15:38 PM
 #2506

Coz you both fanatically bullish and dont see obivous things from ta basics.
notme
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December 21, 2012, 07:17:31 PM
 #2507

Coz you both fanatically bullish and dont see obivous things from ta basics.

Or you are too focused on the short term and they've realized it isn't worth the headache and take the easy > 100% profit for the year.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
S3052
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December 21, 2012, 07:17:54 PM
 #2508

Coz you both fanatically bullish and dont see obivous things from ta basics.

bullish on what?

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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S3052
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December 21, 2012, 07:18:34 PM
 #2509

Coz you both fanatically bullish and dont see obivous things from ta basics.

Or you are too focused on the short term and they've realized it isn't worth the headache and take the easy > 100% profit for the year.

^ +1

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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lucif
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December 21, 2012, 07:19:03 PM
 #2510

You both see bitcoin like a tight heaven of trading while all stocks has a storm. Gold 2.0 and other shit.

But wait, stocks will drop and bitcoin will not stay aside of that.
lucif
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December 21, 2012, 07:20:21 PM
 #2511

^ +1
Dont you have hourly charts also in your updates?
cypherdoc
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December 21, 2012, 07:22:18 PM
 #2512

You both see bitcoin like a tight heaven of trading while all stocks has a storm. Gold 2.0 and other shit.

But wait, stocks will drop and bitcoin will not stay aside of that.

heaven, hell, satan, spirits, lucifer...what the hell is this?  Wink
S3052
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December 21, 2012, 07:22:23 PM
 #2513

You both see bitcoin like a tight heaven of trading while all stocks has a storm. Gold 2.0 and other shit.

But wait, stocks will drop and bitcoin will not stay aside of that.

It is entirely possible that bitcoin goes down with all other assets at least for a certain period of time.
but, right now there is no sign that this is happening nearterm.
there is also the possibility that bitcoin gains so much traction that funds move INTO bitcoins big time (i.e. I know of some projects out there that can make this explode)
more in the subscriber section

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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lucif
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December 21, 2012, 07:23:59 PM
 #2514

S3052: why dont you tell about highly possible h&s pattern to your subs? I dont beleive you dont see it.
cypherdoc
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December 21, 2012, 07:25:05 PM
 #2515

You both see bitcoin like a tight heaven of trading while all stocks has a storm. Gold 2.0 and other shit.

But wait, stocks will drop and bitcoin will not stay aside of that.

It is entirely possible that bitcoin goes down with all other assets at least for a certain period of time.
but, right now there is no sign that this is happening nearterm.
there is also the possibility that bitcoin gains so much traction that funds move INTO bitcoins big time (i.e. I know of some projects out there that can make this explode)
more in the subscriber section


exactly.  and THEN you'll see all the volume you've been complaining about, lucif.

edit:  and then you will be in short covering hell.
lucif
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December 21, 2012, 07:31:47 PM
 #2516

So this is just what: you are both totally bullish. I just make bearish work instead of you.

You |dont see|dont want to see|hiding from subs| (<-- choose yours) obvious bearish things.
S3052
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December 21, 2012, 07:32:09 PM
 #2517

S3052: why dont you tell about highly possible h&s pattern to your subs? I dont beleive you dont see it.

how do you know that I am not telling this to subscribers. are you a subscriber?

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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cypherdoc
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December 21, 2012, 07:41:28 PM
 #2518

S3052: why dont you tell about highly possible h&s pattern to your subs? I dont beleive you dont see it.

how do you know that I am not telling this to subscribers. are you a subscriber?

you've been infiltrated.  just like me.  Cheesy

look on the bright side; at least he pays his bills.
lucif
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December 21, 2012, 08:04:32 PM
 #2519

Yes I am subscriber. And this is my feedback.

Another dumb question. Why did you told "we are going to the moon" at the top of this tripple zigzag correction and obivous bearish wedge?

lucif
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December 21, 2012, 08:10:11 PM
 #2520

you've been infiltrated.  just like me.  Cheesy

look on the bright side; at least he pays his bills.
I just make money and need several eyes. I need your services.

But when you tell obivous shit - I just cant stop critic.
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