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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509533 times)
kneim
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May 30, 2012, 07:46:37 PM
 #2281

There is a strict anticyclic way for never loosing money with bitcoins (and other assets) for the long time, under the following conditions:
1) You believe in BTC as a real value (similar like gold)
2) You do not expect to make quick money

Follow strictly an easy rule, to invest a fix amount of USD for every cent the BTC value moves: for example, invest 1 USD for 1 cent that the BTC moves: I start from 5.00 USD/BTC (so I have a maximum of 500 USD to invest, if the BTC drops to 0.00):

USD/BTC
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50 buy BTC for 50 USD, create an ask at 5.00 USD/BTC then
5.00 do not trade this, it is the fair value, and so doesn't matter
5.50 sell BTC for 50 USD, create a bid at 5.00 USD/BTC then
6.00
6.50
...

The method before is manipulation free, it benefits from manipulation of others. It stabilizes the currency ratio, it can be used with any amount of capital. It can (and should) be used with different REAL assets, like equity funds (or any that you real believe in), to distribute the risk in random variation.

There are two gaps, that can be adjusted as needed: The gap between ask and bid (1.00 USD here), and the step to subsequent bids or asks (0.50 USD here). You can make the gaps bigger (less trading, better timing) or smaller (better arbitrage, higher fee).
You have some more options here: If you have too less BTC, buy for 60 USD, and sell for 40 USD. And vice versa, if you need more USD. It's a bad idea, to trade huge amounts in a small period of time.

It works best against manipulating bangsters, but do not invest too much!!!
Most work is finding real assets, like gold (or BTC). There are some, but it's a hard job.
Trading is easy without greed.
Good look.

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molecular
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May 31, 2012, 12:08:28 PM
 #2282

There is a strict anticyclic way for never loosing money with bitcoins (and other assets) for the long time, under the following conditions:
1) You believe in BTC as a real value (similar like gold)
2) You do not expect to make quick money

Follow strictly an easy rule, to invest a fix amount of USD for every cent the BTC value moves: for example, invest 1 USD for 1 cent that the BTC moves: I start from 5.00 USD/BTC (so I have a maximum of 500 USD to invest, if the BTC drops to 0.00):

USD/BTC
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50 buy BTC for 50 USD, create an ask at 5.00 USD/BTC then
5.00 do not trade this, it is the fair value, and so doesn't matter
5.50 sell BTC for 50 USD, create a bid at 5.00 USD/BTC then
6.00
6.50
...

The method before is manipulation free, it benefits from manipulation of others. It stabilizes the currency ratio, it can be used with any amount of capital. It can (and should) be used with different REAL assets, like equity funds (or any that you real believe in), to distribute the risk in random variation.

There are two gaps, that can be adjusted as needed: The gap between ask and bid (1.00 USD here), and the step to subsequent bids or asks (0.50 USD here). You can make the gaps bigger (less trading, better timing) or smaller (better arbitrage, higher fee).
You have some more options here: If you have too less BTC, buy for 60 USD, and sell for 40 USD. And vice versa, if you need more USD. It's a bad idea, to trade huge amounts in a small period of time.

It works best against manipulating bangsters, but do not invest too much!!!
Most work is finding real assets, like gold (or BTC). There are some, but it's a hard job.
Trading is easy without greed.
Good look.

similar to this idea? (from this very thread on dec 14th 2011: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.msg650108#msg650108)

Quote from: molecular
btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

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S3052
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May 31, 2012, 07:50:04 PM
 #2283

As usual, last call for June 2012 subcriptions

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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kneim
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June 01, 2012, 05:17:20 AM
 #2284


similar to this idea? (from this very thread on dec 14th 2011: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.msg650108#msg650108)

Quote from: molecular
btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

Yes, that's the same strategy. Perhaps not the best, but simply working. Because BTC is rather stable last time, my focus is more on gold and silver now, values which are heavily dropping.

Indeed I'm rather enthusiastic for BTC, waiting for the greeks/spains/italiens/chinese to distribute in alternative real values, instead of bubbling fiat currencies. I think most of the world does not know about it. Hope technology of BTC will resist.

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June 03, 2012, 04:57:56 PM
 #2285

A short term update has just been issued to subscribers. Title: Riding the Elliott Waves

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Newar
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June 03, 2012, 10:20:34 PM
 #2286

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."
+1
Couldn't have said it better.
Unless of course the fundamentals change drastically.

I'll admit I'm new to BTC, but in forex when (for example) a National Bank brings out the big guns, TA simply just fails.

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RyNinDaCleM
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June 03, 2012, 11:53:23 PM
 #2287

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."
+1
Couldn't have said it better.
Unless of course the fundamentals change drastically.

I'll admit I'm new to BTC, but in forex when (for example) a National Bank brings out the big guns, TA simply just fails.

TA doesn't work all the time here either. The market is too small, and it's too easy for someone with the capital to break the charts in their favor.

S3052
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June 05, 2012, 04:24:45 AM
 #2288

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."
+1
Couldn't have said it better.
Unless of course the fundamentals change drastically.

I'll admit I'm new to BTC, but in forex when (for example) a National Bank brings out the big guns, TA simply just fails.

TA doesn't work all the time here either. The market is too small, and it's too easy for someone with the capital to break the charts in their favor.

TA also works in these cases, because if you define support and resistances properly, you can (i) anticipate certain moves to a high probability and (ii) quickly jump on the train if it left the station, well before others can do. We have proven to be able to time this well since late 2010.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
Newar
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June 05, 2012, 05:40:10 AM
 #2289

Just an example:

http://postimage.org/image/8os0ioq7b/

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S3052
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June 08, 2012, 09:28:32 PM
 #2290

The weekly report has just been issued to subscribers.

Title for the Bitcoin Forecast: The path of least resistance is ...

Title for the new Stock Market Forecast: More to come ...

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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kokjo
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You are WRONG!


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June 08, 2012, 09:33:38 PM
 #2291

The weekly report has just been issued to subscribers.

Title for the Bitcoin Forecast: The path of least resistance is ...

Title for the new Stock Market Forecast: More to come ...

public one soon, please?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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June 11, 2012, 08:13:54 PM
 #2292

Short term update mailed to subscribers. Title: THE CLEAR PATH

For new people interested, we offer a trial month for 3 BTC.
Mail to S3052@gmx.ch before June 16 for this offer.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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S3052
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June 12, 2012, 08:46:27 PM
 #2293

runaway train..

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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kokjo
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June 12, 2012, 08:49:13 PM
 #2294

runaway train..
up up and away?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
adamstgBit
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June 12, 2012, 09:06:14 PM
 #2295


runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends Huh

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June 12, 2012, 09:07:37 PM
 #2296


runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends Huh

Or you get them up to 88 MPH and have 1.21 Jiggawatts running through your flux capacitor.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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kokjo
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June 12, 2012, 09:07:53 PM
 #2297


runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends Huh
it crashed last year.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
molecular
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June 12, 2012, 09:13:44 PM
 #2298


runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends Huh

make track go in circle?

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Crypt_Current
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June 14, 2012, 01:34:08 AM
 #2299


runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends Huh

make track go in circle?

centrifugal force man

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June 14, 2012, 01:38:32 AM
 #2300


runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends Huh

make track go in circle?

centrifugal force man

Make it a big circle:

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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