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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509035 times)
S3052
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BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


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January 11, 2014, 06:30:47 PM
 #2901

I hope going UP, otherwise my oculus rift project will have more delays, sorry gamers community

What do you mean your project? OR is coming out Summer 2014




The last couple reports lost short term relevance due to news & no update followed.  

So for me personally, I would need updates on "big news" (overstock) to stay a subscriber - im not sure thats cost effective your end.  Anyway good luck to ya.




The technicals always supersede the fundamentals.
Hence, it wont help to frantically issue updates just because of news. In fact, the bitcoin chart patterns are more important. Very often, the same sort of news produce different effects. Depending on the position of bitcoin prices within the larger chart pattern, a "positive" news can one time lead to a rally and another time to a sell off - and vice versa.


This forecast is using technical analysis as base and not fundamentals. Nothing is ever perfect, but the overwhelmingly positive feedback from our subscribers shows that we serve customers well - and help them to strongly outperform buying and holding bitcoins. And this remains our goal.

The history of the 4 years of bitcoinbullbear service proves that our forecast accuracy is >85%, no matter what the "news" are.
In any case, no one pushes anyone to subscribe. It is people's choice.



OP looks like u were right about BTC going up back in 2010.... but how bullish are you now?!

As an exception, I give an answer here:

As long as the April 2013 high holds (266 $), we are bullish longterm to at least one more ATH above 1242 $.


Please understand that other comments and forecasts, as well as shorter term predictions will only be available in the subscriber section. It would otherwise be unfair to paying subscribers.


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
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Anima
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January 12, 2014, 01:37:07 AM
 #2902

New suscriber here..

Looking forward to see more of your work. I hope you are able to give some pointers in this market that can help avoid buying at the wrong time.

Seems like i have a lot of technical jargon to catch up on (newbie in bitcoins) - any good ideas where to read about RSI, bearish, bullish etc?

Best regards from Anima - proud member of the eMunie team.
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January 12, 2014, 08:17:10 AM
 #2903

New suscriber here..

Looking forward to see more of your work. I hope you are able to give some pointers in this market that can help avoid buying at the wrong time.

Seems like i have a lot of technical jargon to catch up on (newbie in bitcoins) - any good ideas where to read about RSI, bearish, bullish etc?

Chart School

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:overview:technical_analysis

Trading View

https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/

I've only been following this stuff for a couple of months myself but am becoming more and more convinced that TA is actually a branch of astrology. YMMV.
notme
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January 12, 2014, 08:24:23 AM
 #2904

New suscriber here..

Looking forward to see more of your work. I hope you are able to give some pointers in this market that can help avoid buying at the wrong time.

Seems like i have a lot of technical jargon to catch up on (newbie in bitcoins) - any good ideas where to read about RSI, bearish, bullish etc?

Chart School

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:overview:technical_analysis

Trading View

https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/

I've only been following this stuff for a couple of months myself but am becoming more and more convinced that TA is actually a branch of astrology. YMMV.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=75955.0

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
BitCoinNutJob
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January 12, 2014, 02:20:16 PM
 #2905


The last couple reports lost short term relevance due to news & no update followed. 

So for me personally, I would need updates on "big news" (overstock) to stay a subscriber - im not sure thats cost effective your end.  Anyway good luck to ya.




The technicals always supersede the fundamentals.
Hence, it wont help to frantically issue updates just because of news. In fact, the bitcoin chart patterns are more important. Very often, the same sort of news produce different effects. Depending on the position of bitcoin prices within the larger chart pattern, a "positive" news can one time lead to a rally and another time to a sell off - and vice versa.


This forecast is using technical analysis as base and not fundamentals. Nothing is ever perfect, but the overwhelmingly positive feedback from our subscribers shows that we serve customers well - and help them to strongly outperform buying and holding bitcoins. And this remains our goal.

The history of the 4 years of bitcoinbullbear service proves that our forecast accuracy is >85%, no matter what the "news" are.
In any case, no one pushes anyone to subscribe. It is people's choice.



Appreciate the response and i agree with some things you say.  I do find the service has given me a better idea about some trading technicals yes, however theres no proof of this quote (link me if so) else i just consider its sales pitch.

"The history of the 4 years of bitcoinbullbear service proves that our forecast accuracy is >85%, no matter what the "news" are."

I have personally found your service has cost me bitcoin holdings vs buy and hold so far btw.  Maybe your medium term and long terms predictions are more accurate but no way your short term has been last few months - short term has been less than 50% right imo last 3 months.

"In any case, no one pushes anyone to subscribe. It is people's choice."

Im just asking for better short term attention here remember.   Im not doubting you have excellent trading knowledge, you probably made several several million from trading. 

Bitcointalk is my second life (:
notme
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January 12, 2014, 04:50:48 PM
 #2906


The last couple reports lost short term relevance due to news & no update followed. 

So for me personally, I would need updates on "big news" (overstock) to stay a subscriber - im not sure thats cost effective your end.  Anyway good luck to ya.




The technicals always supersede the fundamentals.
Hence, it wont help to frantically issue updates just because of news. In fact, the bitcoin chart patterns are more important. Very often, the same sort of news produce different effects. Depending on the position of bitcoin prices within the larger chart pattern, a "positive" news can one time lead to a rally and another time to a sell off - and vice versa.


This forecast is using technical analysis as base and not fundamentals. Nothing is ever perfect, but the overwhelmingly positive feedback from our subscribers shows that we serve customers well - and help them to strongly outperform buying and holding bitcoins. And this remains our goal.

The history of the 4 years of bitcoinbullbear service proves that our forecast accuracy is >85%, no matter what the "news" are.
In any case, no one pushes anyone to subscribe. It is people's choice.



Appreciate the response and i agree with some things you say.  I do find the service has given me a better idea about some trading technicals yes, however theres no proof of this quote (link me if so) else i just consider its sales pitch.

"The history of the 4 years of bitcoinbullbear service proves that our forecast accuracy is >85%, no matter what the "news" are."

I have personally found your service has cost me bitcoin holdings vs buy and hold so far btw.  Maybe your medium term and long terms predictions are more accurate but no way your short term has been last few months - short term has been less than 50% right imo last 3 months.

"In any case, no one pushes anyone to subscribe. It is people's choice."

Im just asking for better short term attention here remember.   Im not doubting you have excellent trading knowledge, you probably made several several million from trading. 


Maybe you shouldn't trade short term is such a small and volatile market?  Any market approaches a random walk on a small enough time scale.  It is only on the larger time scales that reliable patterns emerge.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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BitCoinNutJob
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January 12, 2014, 07:02:04 PM
 #2907

Yup well i wont be following any short term guides unless there are changes thats for sure.

In very simple terms i see it as... good news means short term up 70% of the time, bad news means short term down 70% of the time, its simple as that unless we off the back of a previous rally or dip.  Previous rally but then with fresh good news = price likely holds short term.  Previous dip with bad news may mean we dont go lower short term.  < even that formula will beat buy & hold imo.

Medium/long term maybe the reports can assist i will think about it but probably only occasionally subscribe once every 6 months,   This shit is going $40k+ $100k+ or zero i dont see any other option.

Bitcointalk is my second life (:
Anima
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January 12, 2014, 08:16:46 PM
 #2908



Medium/long term maybe the reports can assist i will think about it but probably only occasionally subscribe once every 6 months,   This shit is going $40k+ $100k+ or zero i dont see any other option.

Would you care to explain why a bitcoin will hit 40k or even 100k during 2014?

That would require an enormeous amount of fiat going towards BTC.. I have a hard time seeing how we will have a market cap of 40-100x the current.

Best regards from Anima - proud member of the eMunie team.
BitCoinNutJob
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January 12, 2014, 08:29:14 PM
 #2909


Sorry i mean long term its going $40k+ $100k+ or dead (or $1-$10 etc, basically dead), i cant see how it does anything else?  (would love to hear theories of how it can stay @ $500 or something for 10 years.)

I can see us going down in price some time next couple month though btw not for sure though who knows BTC is crazy- Im currently 60% all in if that helps & wont ever sell these holdings basically.


Bitcointalk is my second life (:
BitCoinNutJob
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January 12, 2014, 08:35:19 PM
 #2910


So advice to newbies be very careful on short term.... following the short term reports did lose me BTC holdings over last 3 months.

Luckily im making those back now following my own short term instincts Smiley

Bitcointalk is my second life (:
S3052
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January 13, 2014, 06:56:53 AM
 #2911


The last couple reports lost short term relevance due to news & no update followed. 

So for me personally, I would need updates on "big news" (overstock) to stay a subscriber - im not sure thats cost effective your end.  Anyway good luck to ya.




The technicals always supersede the fundamentals.
Hence, it wont help to frantically issue updates just because of news. In fact, the bitcoin chart patterns are more important. Very often, the same sort of news produce different effects. Depending on the position of bitcoin prices within the larger chart pattern, a "positive" news can one time lead to a rally and another time to a sell off - and vice versa.


This forecast is using technical analysis as base and not fundamentals. Nothing is ever perfect, but the overwhelmingly positive feedback from our subscribers shows that we serve customers well - and help them to strongly outperform buying and holding bitcoins. And this remains our goal.

The history of the 4 years of bitcoinbullbear service proves that our forecast accuracy is >85%, no matter what the "news" are.
In any case, no one pushes anyone to subscribe. It is people's choice.



Appreciate the response and i agree with some things you say.  I do find the service has given me a better idea about some trading technicals yes, however theres no proof of this quote (link me if so) else i just consider its sales pitch.

"The history of the 4 years of bitcoinbullbear service proves that our forecast accuracy is >85%, no matter what the "news" are."

I have personally found your service has cost me bitcoin holdings vs buy and hold so far btw.  Maybe your medium term and long terms predictions are more accurate but no way your short term has been last few months - short term has been less than 50% right imo last 3 months.

"In any case, no one pushes anyone to subscribe. It is people's choice."

Im just asking for better short term attention here remember.   Im not doubting you have excellent trading knowledge, you probably made several several million from trading. 


Maybe you shouldn't trade short term is such a small and volatile market?  Any market approaches a random walk on a small enough time scale.  It is only on the larger time scales that reliable patterns emerge.

Yes, very short term trading requires a lot of experience and skills beyond having a forecast - especially in the volatile bitcoin market. We continue to stress that.
That said, also the short term forecasts have a very high accuracy.

Here is the recent example from Thursday, Jan 10, 2014 - when BTCUSD was 943 $ at MtGox:
We said: "Given this picture, and the fact that the market has held 900 $ level on the last few small selloffs means that the market could continue up to resistance at 1000 $ but it looks unlikely that the momentum and conviction are there to take it up to or past the previous 1093 $ high".
What happened then is that bitcoin prices indeed hit the target of 1,000 $ (intraday 1023 $) and then turned down again. This is a pretty
decent forecast and short term traders could have made at least +57 $ = +6% within less than 48 hours.

But as mentioned many times before, winning in bitcoin and any other market in short term or day trading requires more than an accurate forecast. There is at least an equal weight of proper discipline, experience and money management.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
traderCJ
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January 13, 2014, 07:03:12 AM
 #2912


So advice to newbies be very careful on short term.... following the short term reports did lose me BTC holdings over last 3 months.

Luckily im making those back now following my own short term instincts Smiley

Had I followed the subscription advice, I would have lost money as well.  I gave it enough time to see that I was better off trading based on news rather than his TA, regardless of what he claims here.  Just my experience.  Your mileage may vary.
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January 13, 2014, 02:16:32 PM
 #2913

Quote
That said, also the short term forecasts have a very high accuracy.


Not since i've subscribed - 3 months.  1 scenario is tiny sample size come on its like me pointing out 1 scenario when you were wrong.

3 months of following your short terms is a small sample also but still larger than 1 example. Going back to my own short term system of trading on news.

Anyway i said what i wanna say.

Bitcointalk is my second life (:
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January 13, 2014, 04:22:43 PM
 #2914

whats the promo code though?
AKWAnalytics
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January 13, 2014, 06:00:41 PM
 #2915

whats the promo code though?


Our current promotion is 2 weeks free with any subscription package: newyear2014  Thanks for asking!


As far as the other comments regarding the forecast, we appreciate all feedback, positive or negative.  No forecast will be correct 100% of the time so any suggestions for improvement are always welcome.  That being said, I feel confident that our subscribers are better off following our reports and updates than not.  Trading and investing is not only about opportunity, but also about capital preservation and prudent decision making during uncertain and highly volatile times. 

It is easy to say "I'll buy and hold regardless of market action" but very few can do this is a market that runs and swings like bitcoin does.  We had been calling for a strong rally to new ATH's since August, but we also provided levels along the way to take profit at due to proper risk management practice.  Did we miss a few percent each way?  Probably, but if you would have watched these levels and sold, the market gave you a price to get in back in lower almost every time. 

One more thing about our service.   It is not necessarily a price alerting and/or daytrading alert system.  We try to provide longer term ideas combined with actionable short term recommendations that tend to play out over hours/days/weeks rather than seconds and minutes.  Other resources such as ours, which are usually done by large investment banks and hedge fund managers, are released to clients infrequently, maybe once a month to a couple times a year. We are trying to be as informative and helpful as possible, however know we are putting ourselves in a unique position with such frequent correspondence.

Thank you all again for your input, we look forward to continuing to serve you and improve in every way possible moving forward.


Have a great BITday!
tvbcof
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January 13, 2014, 07:00:49 PM
 #2916

...
It is easy to say "I'll buy and hold regardless of market action" but very few can do this is a market that runs and swings like bitcoin does.
...

Huh?  Seems to me that 'buy and hold' is the only logical way to increase the odds of making money in such a market.  I'm up over 100x doing this...and not paying any attention whatsoever to the TA specialists or whatever.

I've no doubt that some people who play the markets have made more money than I, but to me it simply makes and already risky speculation even more so.  Many people who've tried to play the markets have probably come out worse for the wear, and all of them have paid a lot to the exchanges and so on.


bitdragon
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peace


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January 13, 2014, 08:12:16 PM
 #2917

The track record of third parties holding other people's bitcoins is pretty appaling making trading quite risky business.

Edit:
my point is that trading most likely requires you to have funds on exchanges which require you to trust them and to paraphrase a shared sentiment I believe we need more professional exchanges. Recently having read this for example

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406908.msg4430052#msg4430052
It's not very encouraging and should be taken into account when deciding to trade.

Otherwise, this Price forecast service is probably one of the few long lasting bitcoin businesses out there which has lived up to their promise and delivered timely alerts for many years now in the most volatile financial product I know of. And that deserves being emphasized.

S3052
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January 21, 2014, 06:22:38 AM
 #2918

The track record of third parties holding other people's bitcoins is pretty appaling making trading quite risky business.

Edit:
my point is that trading most likely requires you to have funds on exchanges which require you to trust them and to paraphrase a shared sentiment I believe we need more professional exchanges. Recently having read this for example

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406908.msg4430052#msg4430052
It's not very encouraging and should be taken into account when deciding to trade.

Otherwise, this Price forecast service is probably one of the few long lasting bitcoin businesses out there which has lived up to their promise and delivered timely alerts for many years now in the most volatile financial product I know of. And that deserves being emphasized.


thanks so much for the clarification and feedback.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
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January 21, 2014, 07:18:44 AM
 #2919

New suscriber here..

Looking forward to see more of your work. I hope you are able to give some pointers in this market that can help avoid buying at the wrong time.

Seems like i have a lot of technical jargon to catch up on (newbie in bitcoins) - any good ideas where to read about RSI, bearish, bullish etc?

Chart School

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:overview:technical_analysis

Trading View

https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/

I've only been following this stuff for a couple of months myself but am becoming more and more convinced that TA is actually a branch of astrology. YMMV.

lol. Even if there are good reasons for TA, it's so hard to read the signals through the noise that it's almost unusable. We're in an exponential uptrend for years, but a down trend since Dec 1, 2013, and an uptrend since last Friday...   wrong analysis can be explained away and correct analysis is usually so vague it's meaningless.  Ok, we're going to probably have a new ATH. When??  I stay 90% in bitcoin. Price goes up, I sell some. Price goes down, I buy some. Simple as that.

insert coin here:
1Ctd7Na8qE7btyueEshAJF5C7ZqFWH11Wc

Open an exchange account at CampBX: options, lowest commissions, and best security
https://campbx.com/register.php?r=0Y7YxohTV0B
AKWAnalytics
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January 30, 2014, 05:52:18 PM
 #2920

New suscriber here..

Looking forward to see more of your work. I hope you are able to give some pointers in this market that can help avoid buying at the wrong time.

Seems like i have a lot of technical jargon to catch up on (newbie in bitcoins) - any good ideas where to read about RSI, bearish, bullish etc?

Chart School

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:overview:technical_analysis

Trading View

https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/

I've only been following this stuff for a couple of months myself but am becoming more and more convinced that TA is actually a branch of astrology. YMMV.

lol. Even if there are good reasons for TA, it's so hard to read the signals through the noise that it's almost unusable. We're in an exponential uptrend for years, but a down trend since Dec 1, 2013, and an uptrend since last Friday...   wrong analysis can be explained away and correct analysis is usually so vague it's meaningless.  Ok, we're going to probably have a new ATH. When??  I stay 90% in bitcoin. Price goes up, I sell some. Price goes down, I buy some. Simple as that.



Thank you for your comments and opinions.  Discussions such as these make us take a good look at what we do, why we do it, and what we can do to improve.  Below are a few comments about the concerns you raise:

-A service like ours exists specifically to cut through the noise and false signals you mention.  TA is an art, not a science, and therefore its effectiveness depends on the skill of the technician.  We think we have some of the most talented analysts in the game and their track record speaks for itself.

-There are 2 different classes of participants in any market: investors and speculators.  Each will have the same goal, capital appreciation, but will achieve the goal in different ways.  The investor is comfortable with sacrificing alpha for convenience and the trader is more concerned with abnormal profits at the expense of leisure/quality of life.  Your strategy works for you, others will approach the market in a way that works for them.  BTW, we think we can provide a benefit to both types, but for different reasons.

-TA is purely the study of psychology, behavior and sentiment as manifested in market price action expressed through a graphical representation known as a chart (see Chapter 1 of John Murphy’s Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets for a great explanation of what TA is and what is attempts to achieve).  This makes it particularly applicable to digital currencies which lack a corporeal quality and cashflow, rendering traditional valuation methodologies virtually impossible.  It is a momentum-driven market, and technicals are good at measuring exactly that.  Also, TA is no different than any other time series analysis you would apply to a dataset in order to glean insights that can provide an advantage in the marketplace.  Sure, nothing works 100% of the time, but anything over 33% success rate is beating the odds in a mathematical sense (market has three directions: up, down, and sideways.  You must choose only one making your statistical odds of success 33.33…%).

-Our reports are not vague, and any losses incurred by unprofitable analysis are quickly mitigated by the frequency of our updates.
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