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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 504460 times)
Ente
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September 17, 2013, 09:31:04 AM
 #2801

>61% bullish sentiment.

Does it mean prices will rally from here or crash?


Yes.

SCNR,

Ente
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September 17, 2013, 01:26:18 PM
 #2802

>61% bullish sentiment.

Does it mean prices will rally from here or crash?


Yes.

SCNR,

Ente

Well , frankly I was interested to hear some thoughts of the community about either side

Why have people clicked that prices go up and what do those think who clicked that prices go down ?

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 17, 2013, 02:19:45 PM
 #2803

>61% bullish sentiment.

Does it mean prices will rally from here or crash?


Yes.

SCNR,

Ente

Well , frankly I was interested to hear some thoughts of the community about either side

Why have people clicked that prices go up and what do those think who clicked that prices go down ?

Ah, I see. Well, you do great work doing TA. As of lately, I fell back to "it goes up, it goes down, you can't explain it!". Therefore, your "bait" was irresistive for me.

For what it's worth, I am more of a bull than ever.
I remember two years ago when I talked with my mom about potential failure modes of Bitcoin: technical failures (aka hack), intervention from governments (aka banning) and negative media campaigns. All three look like less of a risk now compared to two years ago, so I will play permabull and enjoy the ride.

Ente
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September 17, 2013, 07:00:53 PM
 #2804

Well , frankly I was interested to hear some thoughts of the community about either side

Why have people clicked that prices go up and what do those think who clicked that prices go down ?

I don't know how to interpret a sentiment poll like that, but I can tell you why I clicked "up":

  • technical (a naive view): uptrend of July, August broke into a slightly ascending triangle -> continuation (bull flag?). If we break through $150 in the process, there is not much left to clear
  • mining: getting into mining looks bleak. Buying hardware at this point in time (and going forward I assume) doesn't make much sense or is highly risky at best -> people buy coins instead of mining hardware (the latter might even equate a sell of coins if bitcoins are used or sold to pay for the hardware). In other words: a lot of fiat was needed from the mining community (and acquired mostly by selling of bitcoins) to develop the various ASICs. That flow will decrease in volume.
  • regulatory/media landscape: it's still looking quite fabulous, Bitcoin seems to be growing up
  • general: the correction (April) is over, the will be more water running down the river before people regain trust into bitcoins value, but it will happen at increasing pace
  • businesses: a lot of businesses are being started around bitcoin. What's a bitcoin business without a stash of coins? Also good for Bitcoin visibility and a good way to draw in traditional VCapital that doesn't want to invest directly in XBT
  • investment: increasing trust and brokers/bankers helping investors buy coins might bring big bucks
  • trader emotion: bears (still waiting for $50 coins) are going to give up at some point
  • After german elections some EUR-shit might hit the fan -> good for coins

I'm not calling immanent ignition of the next hidden rocket just yet, but it's becoming more and more likely every day. Maybe in 2-5 months it's possible.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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September 17, 2013, 09:07:50 PM
 #2805

Well , frankly I was interested to hear some thoughts of the community about either side

Why have people clicked that prices go up and what do those think who clicked that prices go down ?

I don't know how to interpret a sentiment poll like that, but I can tell you why I clicked "up":

  • technical (a naive view): uptrend of July, August broke into a slightly ascending triangle -> continuation (bull flag?). If we break through $150 in the process, there is not much left to clear
  • mining: getting into mining looks bleak. Buying hardware at this point in time (and going forward I assume) doesn't make much sense or is highly risky at best -> people buy coins instead of mining hardware (the latter might even equate a sell of coins if bitcoins are used or sold to pay for the hardware). In other words: a lot of fiat was needed from the mining community (and acquired mostly by selling of bitcoins) to develop the various ASICs. That flow will decrease in volume.
  • regulatory/media landscape: it's still looking quite fabulous, Bitcoin seems to be growing up
  • general: the correction (April) is over, the will be more water running down the river before people regain trust into bitcoins value, but it will happen at increasing pace
  • businesses: a lot of businesses are being started around bitcoin. What's a bitcoin business without a stash of coins? Also good for Bitcoin visibility and a good way to draw in traditional VCapital that doesn't want to invest directly in XBT
  • investment: increasing trust and brokers/bankers helping investors buy coins might bring big bucks
  • trader emotion: bears (still waiting for $50 coins) are going to give up at some point
  • After german elections some EUR-shit might hit the fan -> good for coins

I'm not calling immanent ignition of the next hidden rocket just yet, but it's becoming more and more likely every day. Maybe in 2-5 months it's possible.


Well stated.
It is great when the Technical Analysis is in line with Fundamental Analysis

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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smoothie
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September 18, 2013, 05:54:01 AM
 #2806

Well , frankly I was interested to hear some thoughts of the community about either side

Why have people clicked that prices go up and what do those think who clicked that prices go down ?

I don't know how to interpret a sentiment poll like that, but I can tell you why I clicked "up":

  • technical (a naive view): uptrend of July, August broke into a slightly ascending triangle -> continuation (bull flag?). If we break through $150 in the process, there is not much left to clear
  • mining: getting into mining looks bleak. Buying hardware at this point in time (and going forward I assume) doesn't make much sense or is highly risky at best -> people buy coins instead of mining hardware (the latter might even equate a sell of coins if bitcoins are used or sold to pay for the hardware). In other words: a lot of fiat was needed from the mining community (and acquired mostly by selling of bitcoins) to develop the various ASICs. That flow will decrease in volume.
  • regulatory/media landscape: it's still looking quite fabulous, Bitcoin seems to be growing up
  • general: the correction (April) is over, the will be more water running down the river before people regain trust into bitcoins value, but it will happen at increasing pace
  • businesses: a lot of businesses are being started around bitcoin. What's a bitcoin business without a stash of coins? Also good for Bitcoin visibility and a good way to draw in traditional VCapital that doesn't want to invest directly in XBT
  • investment: increasing trust and brokers/bankers helping investors buy coins might bring big bucks
  • trader emotion: bears (still waiting for $50 coins) are going to give up at some point
  • After german elections some EUR-shit might hit the fan -> good for coins

I'm not calling immanent ignition of the next hidden rocket just yet, but it's becoming more and more likely every day. Maybe in 2-5 months it's possible.


Based on past price cycles we are due for a rally in price between October 15 and December 15. Every 6.5 to 8 months there has been a price hike.

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September 18, 2013, 10:36:24 AM
 #2807

Based on past price cycles we are due for a rally in price between October 15 and December 15. Every 6.5 to 8 months there has been a price hike.

I love such statements!
Here, have another one:
"Every time mankind has set foot on a new extraterestical object, there was a world war exactly 30 years before. People, stay away from Mars!" :-P

So, how many datapoints did you compute for this? One, two? ;-)

Actually I agree. But based on something much better, my gutfeeling. Hah!

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September 18, 2013, 08:15:11 PM
 #2808

Here is a Bitcoin Bull Bear Special Offer, One Month ~$9.95 (0.075btc)! Limited Time Only!

We are excited to announce a very special offer for a limited time only (exp. 10/1/2013) in which new subscribers can take advantage of a one month ActivePro trial for the exceptionally low price of ~$9.95, or 0.075btc
click here: http://bit.ly/15Dt6ta


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 22, 2013, 06:38:27 AM
 #2809

Here is the current consolidated orderbook view across all key exchanges



>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 22, 2013, 06:40:33 AM
 #2810

And here a guideline for subscribers and others addressing the MtGox withdrawal issue:

If you really want to withdraw fiat, there is no need to bother with MtGox anymore:
Here the easy steps:

1) You could buy BTC at MtGox
2) Withdraw those BTC to another platform, i.e. bitfinex
3) Sell BTC on this platform / exchange to fiat
4) Withdraw fiat easily.
The whole operation should take approx 4-5 days. This is how it worked for me with bitfinex or bitstamp. International wires in all amounts approx 3 days on bitfinex.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 22, 2013, 08:38:48 AM
 #2811

And here a guideline for subscribers and others addressing the MtGox withdrawal issue:

If you really want to withdraw fiat, there is no need to bother with MtGox anymore:
Here the easy steps:

1) You could buy BTC at MtGox
2) Withdraw those BTC to another platform, i.e. bitfinex
3) Sell BTC on this platform / exchange to fiat
4) Withdraw fiat easily.
The whole operation should take approx 4-5 days. This is how it worked for me with bitfinex or bitstamp. International wires in all amounts approx 3 days on bitfinex.


I'm sorry, but isn't this obvious already? I mean the reason people do not want to do this is that they have to take a $10+ hit on the value of their newly bought bticoins.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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September 22, 2013, 10:23:20 AM
 #2812

And here a guideline for subscribers and others addressing the MtGox withdrawal issue:

If you really want to withdraw fiat, there is no need to bother with MtGox anymore:
Here the easy steps:

1) You could buy BTC at MtGox
2) Withdraw those BTC to another platform, i.e. bitfinex
3) Sell BTC on this platform / exchange to fiat
4) Withdraw fiat easily.
The whole operation should take approx 4-5 days. This is how it worked for me with bitfinex or bitstamp. International wires in all amounts approx 3 days on bitfinex.


I'm sorry, but isn't this obvious already? I mean the reason people do not want to do this is that they have to take a $10+ hit on the value of their newly bought bticoins.

You are right. The only reason I can see for people to stick with them is to believe / pray that they can keep this 10$ advantage.
But the exchange volume inversion from 80% mtgox to a lead of the other exchanges proves that most people are switching

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 22, 2013, 10:45:59 AM
 #2813

You are right. The only reason I can see for people to stick with them is to believe / pray that they can keep this 10$ advantage.
But the exchange volume inversion from 80% mtgox to a lead of the other exchanges proves that most people are switching

I withdraw fiat from MtGox and keep the advantage.  It works fine, just takes two or three weeks of waiting.  MtGox still has an undisputable lead if you count total BTC volume on all the exchanges.  A lot of the volume on MtGox has shifted from USD to EUR and JPY.  On some other exchanges all the volume is counted as USD, no matter what currency the fiat is deposited or withdrawn in, which makes one big misleading number instead of many real numbers.

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
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September 22, 2013, 10:51:07 AM
 #2814

You are right. The only reason I can see for people to stick with them is to believe / pray that they can keep this 10$ advantage.
But the exchange volume inversion from 80% mtgox to a lead of the other exchanges proves that most people are switching

I withdraw fiat from MtGox and keep the advantage.  It works fine, just takes two or three weeks of waiting.  MtGox still has an undisputable lead if you count total BTC volume on all the exchanges.  A lot of the volume on MtGox has shifted from USD to EUR and JPY.  On some other exchanges all the volume is counted as USD, no matter what currency the fiat is deposited or withdrawn in, which makes one big misleading number instead of many real numbers.
Thanks for the insights.
I dont mind if MtGox remains afloat and big.
It would be great to get an overview of total exchange trading volume comparisons = market share.
there is also the emerging china exchange market which seems to be even higher than rest of world sometimes:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264812.0;topicseen

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 25, 2013, 08:09:03 AM
 #2815

 Cheesy Hey, S3052, good redesign of http://bitcoinbullbear.com/ but as I use to say.....

Do you have any public prediction to let know to us, the non-suscripted community?

...last one is more than a month old  Tongue
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September 25, 2013, 06:46:37 PM
 #2816

Cheesy Hey, S3052, good redesign of http://bitcoinbullbear.com/ but as I use to say.....

Do you have any public prediction to let know to us, the non-suscripted community?

...last one is more than a month old  Tongue

Thanks for the great feedback.
At the moment, we want to protect our paying subscribers and this is why we have not recently issued public updates.

That said, we have still an amazing trial offer for you for only 0.075 Bitcoins, valid until October 1, 2013.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 25, 2013, 07:04:49 PM
 #2817

That said, we have still an amazing trial offer for you for only 0.075 Bitcoins, valid until October 1, 2013.[/color]

Just to clarify, you can sign-up until Oct 1st and the offer is for 1 month trial, right?

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September 25, 2013, 07:16:21 PM
 #2818

0.075BTC    Shocked Shocked

All right , let´s try this offer!

Edit: not sure if anything´s going wrong, tried to make the payment but couldn´t!
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September 27, 2013, 02:34:21 PM
 #2819

weekly Report is Out to Subscribers:

Big volatility!

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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September 27, 2013, 06:08:11 PM
 #2820

weekly Report is Out to Subscribers:

Big volatility!


Edit: Never mind  Smiley

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