Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[bulanula]

Cash out now or Dec 2012 after reward drop.

SO many decisions

The reward drop is already prices in as it is already public knowledge.

Sure. I know better by looking at SolidCon. Price will jump Dec 2012 GUARANTEED.

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[S3052]

The new bitcoin weekly report is out to subscribers. "the calm before the storm"

End of month is nearing. If anyone is interested in a subscription, just PM me.

If you wear the correct goggles (intersangoGBP in this case), there is no calm:



fx markets in turmoil. If USDX (measures USD against other fiat) reverses (as it might've just started to do a couple of hours ago) and heads back down, bitcoin could go up consequently?

You are right, I also look at BTCEUR which also shows some strength

[bulanula]

The new bitcoin weekly report is out to subscribers. "the calm before the storm"

End of month is nearing. If anyone is interested in a subscription, just PM me.

If you wear the correct goggles (intersangoGBP in this case), there is no calm:



fx markets in turmoil. If USDX (measures USD against other fiat) reverses (as it might've just started to do a couple of hours ago) and heads back down, bitcoin could go up consequently?

You are right, I also look at BTCEUR which also shows some strength

Clearly bitconica are playing with gox so as to avoid raising the USD price and only buying the cheap GBP / EUR to compensate ?

[molecular]

reagrding your special short-term update:

Similar to your "Reason b)", I've been suspecting a "conglomerate" of wealthy bitcoin players has come together and is trying to stabilize the price. I think it's been going on for longer than just since the bitcoinica problem, though. I also think the "target range" is being adjusted sometimes. It used to be "$5.0 +/- 0.20" and is now 5.00 to 5.20.

This is wild speculation, of course and this might be totally wrongThe only other explanation I can come up with for the astonishing stability since March would be a herd-effect with traders saying: "oh, ok, so it'll be around $5 now, so I'll just sell slighty above and buy slightly below". If enough money acts like that, it's self-fulfilling.

Of course the market cannot be manipulated in the long run (at least not against its general will: it might be possible to "stabilize" it into a certain trend and I would welcome that).

anyhow, thanks for the update, I think it's spot-on.

[S3052]

reagrding your special short-term update:

Similar to your "Reason b)", I've been suspecting a "conglomerate" of wealthy bitcoin players has come together and is trying to stabilize the price. I think it's been going on for longer than just since the bitcoinica problem, though. I also think the "target range" is being adjusted sometimes. It used to be "$5.0 +/- 0.20" and is now 5.00 to 5.20.

This is wild speculation, of course and this might be totally wrongThe only other explanation I can come up with for the astonishing stability since March would be a herd-effect with traders saying: "oh, ok, so it'll be around $5 now, so I'll just sell slighty above and buy slightly below". If enough money acts like that, it's self-fulfilling.

Of course the market cannot be manipulated in the long run (at least not against its general will: it might be possible to "stabilize" it into a certain trend and I would welcome that).

anyhow, thanks for the update, I think it's spot-on.

Yes, it is also correct that  those stabilization efforts have been going on already before the bitcoinica disaster.

And also yes, it will fail for sure. The market does what it wants, not what a few players want.

[Lucidize]

Ha; it must be nice to be able to avoid fees because you own the exchange.

Wow.
What do you expect them to do? Pay you the fees?

Intersango are great imo and they only recently started charging fees.

[disclaimer201]

Ha; it must be nice to be able to avoid fees because you own the exchange.

Wow.
What do you expect them to do? Pay you the fees?

Intersango are great imo and they only recently started charging fees.

Well, good luck trusting them with your money. I'll never put another cent in them nor any significant coin in other bitcoin business b/c of the bitcoinica disaster.

[barbarousrelic]

Yes, it is also correct that  those stabilization efforts have been going on already before the bitcoinica disaster.

Are you gathering this from chart analysis, or have you heard from people who say they are engaged in such stabilization practices?

[realnowhereman]

Ha; it must be nice to be able to avoid fees because you own the exchange.

Wow.
What do you expect them to do? Pay you the fees?

Erm no; I'm saying it must be nice to be able to avoid fees.

Think of it as the same as "it must be nice to own a sports car".  I know it's hard not to hear negatives in everything that is in text form; but it was simply observing that there are some advantages to owning your own bitcoin exchange.

[S3052]

Yes, it is also correct that  those stabilization efforts have been going on already before the bitcoinica disaster.

Are you gathering this from chart analysis, or have you heard from people who say they are engaged in such stabilization practices?

From observing closely the order book.

[barbarousrelic]

Intentional stabilization of the Bitcoin price requires people to buy Bitcoin for more than they would normally be required to pay, and/or sell Bitcoin for less than they would normally be able to get. So it's costing people a significant amount of their own money to do something altruistic. Because of this I think it's unlikely but not impossible. The strange stabilization of price lately does seem to point in that direction.

[notme]

Intentional stabilization of the Bitcoin price requires people to buy Bitcoin for more than they would normally be required to pay, and/or sell Bitcoin for less than they would normally be able to get. So it's costing people a significant amount of their own money to do something altruistic. Because of this I think it's unlikely but not impossible. The strange stabilization of price lately does seem to point in that direction.

If you had, say, 100k BTC, it wouldn't be altruistic at all.  It would be prudent.

[realnowhereman]

Intentional stabilization of the Bitcoin price requires people to buy Bitcoin for more than they would normally be required to pay, and/or sell Bitcoin for less than they would normally be able to get. So it's costing people a significant amount of their own money to do something altruistic. Because of this I think it's unlikely but not impossible. The strange stabilization of price lately does seem to point in that direction.

If you had, say, 100k BTC, it wouldn't be altruistic at all.  It would be prudent.

I don't really see it.  100k of price stability would cost you 100k.

What you want if you own 100k BTC is, in fact, not price stability, what you want is the maximum amount of depth or liquidity so that you can be sure your 100kBTC can be turned back into fiat as quickly as possible.  The best way to do that would be to drive prices up.  Unfortunately, if you have BTC you can only do your stabilising on the sell side.

As always: manipulation costs the manipulator as much as anyone.  I wonder if the sudden vanishing of walls around March was the manipulators realising just that fact -- they were losing money.

[S3052]

Intentional stabilization of the Bitcoin price requires people to buy Bitcoin for more than they would normally be required to pay, and/or sell Bitcoin for less than they would normally be able to get. So it's costing people a significant amount of their own money to do something altruistic. Because of this I think it's unlikely but not impossible. The strange stabilization of price lately does seem to point in that direction.

If you had, say, 100k BTC, it wouldn't be altruistic at all.  It would be prudent.

I don't really see it.  100k of price stability would cost you 100k.

What you want if you own 100k BTC is, in fact, not price stability, what you want is the maximum amount of depth or liquidity so that you can be sure your 100kBTC can be turned back into fiat as quickly as possible.  The best way to do that would be to drive prices up.  Unfortunately, if you have BTC you can only do your stabilising on the sell side.

As always: manipulation costs the manipulator as much as anyone.  I wonder if the sudden vanishing of walls around March was the manipulators realising just that fact -- they were losing money.

that is correct.

[Xenland]

[S3052]

The manipulator for sure wants to avoid losses in his total portfolio.

But that could mean accepting a small loss with the bid and ask walls and the occasional15k BTC  dumps and purchases - versus protecting his holdings somehwere else. Perhaps he is highly leveraged at bitcoinica...

[Xenland]

I could never invest in bitcoin trading with all this going on -- the infinitive speculation of situations would drive me mad, how do you keep your sanity after so many years, S3052?

[S3052]

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I could never invest in bitcoin trading with all this going on -- the infinitive speculation of situations would drive me mad, how do you keep your sanity after so many years, S3052?

that's a great question.
The answer is actually quite simple:

Focusing on technical analysis has guided me and I am tempted to say many dozens of subscribers very well through all "bitstorms".

Because the charts include all fundamental infos and wild speculations, hacks etc. at all times.
With that in mind, a bitcoin chart can be analysed in the same way as the Dow Jones , silver , gold, currencies, etc.
And all the principles and rules work in the same way.

[molecular]

[color=][/color]

I could never invest in bitcoin trading with all this going on -- the infinitive speculation of situations would drive me mad, how do you keep your sanity after so many years, S3052?

that's a great question.
The answer is actually quite simple:

Focusing on technical analysis has guided me and I am tempted to say many dozens of subscribers very well through all "bitstorms".

Because the charts include all fundamental infos and wild speculations, hacks etc. at all times.
With that in mind, a bitcoin chart can be analysed in the same way as the Dow Jones , silver , gold, currencies, etc.
And all the principles and rules work in the same way.

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."

[S3052]

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I could never invest in bitcoin trading with all this going on -- the infinitive speculation of situations would drive me mad, how do you keep your sanity after so many years, S3052?

that's a great question.
The answer is actually quite simple:

Focusing on technical analysis has guided me and I am tempted to say many dozens of subscribers very well through all "bitstorms".

Because the charts include all fundamental infos and wild speculations, hacks etc. at all times.
With that in mind, a bitcoin chart can be analysed in the same way as the Dow Jones , silver , gold, currencies, etc.
And all the principles and rules work in the same way.

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."

+1
Couldn't have said it better.