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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503863 times)
notme
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March 25, 2012, 04:16:45 PM
 #2121

Notme was just trolling...   

But this guy is not right 100% of the time even thought he pretends he is. I just wonder how much over 50% it is.

+1

His public updates have been particularly wrong recently though.  In the past, they were better.  Still, I doubt he's intentionally screwing the public.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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mysteriousawake
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March 25, 2012, 04:24:18 PM
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The big dogs buy cheap subscriptions and take the market the other way...

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March 25, 2012, 04:30:35 PM
 #2123

Notme was just trolling...   

But this guy is not right 100% of the time even thought he pretends he is. I just wonder how much over 50% it is.

+1

His public updates have been particularly wrong recently though.  In the past, they were better.  Still, I doubt he's intentionally screwing the public.

Yeah agreed, he's not intentionally screwing the public. The private and public updates always painted the same picture. There's just been some unlucky situations (for the people following the public updates) where the picture changed really fast after a public update, and he corrected that in a new private mail. The public updates rang true when he gave them, and he's not forced to update those if/when the picture changes.

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molecular
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March 25, 2012, 06:11:51 PM
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Good point. I am happy to provide some tracking of all calls, be it right or wrong

Someone else should do it if you really want it to be trusted.

hm, not really. He could do it himself. Should he lie there, it's easily exposed and his rep down a lot, so I think S3052 could be trusted to do it himself.

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molecular
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March 25, 2012, 06:13:11 PM
 #2125

As I've stated here before I am very critical of S3052 because there is no way Technical Analysis can predict future market development. Nevertheless, I get the feeling without his analysis, I'd be far worse off. And I'm talking about the free service here. It would be good to have a kind of peer review of his work.

What good will a peer-review do in your mind when assuming, as you do, that technical analysis doesn't work?

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March 25, 2012, 06:18:07 PM
 #2126

Notme was just trolling...   

But this guy is not right 100% of the time even thought he pretends he is. I just wonder how much over 50% it is.

Actually, his analysis consists not only of calls. More often than not they contain predictions like: "if it goes below x, it'll drop to x2, if it goes above y on the other hand (this possibility we estimate at z%), it might rise to y1 or even y2". Now this information can be made use of, also.

S3052 might be a bit braggy at times, but he never said he was right 100% of the time. Subscribers know this anyhow and the public now also does Wink

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disclaimer201
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March 25, 2012, 07:34:18 PM
 #2127

As I've stated here before I am very critical of S3052 because there is no way Technical Analysis can predict future market development. Nevertheless, I get the feeling without his analysis, I'd be far worse off. And I'm talking about the free service here. It would be good to have a kind of peer review of his work.

What good will a peer-review do in your mind when assuming, as you do, that technical analysis doesn't work?

A peer-review might give a hint at how good he is in what he is doing. I don't expect a Technical Analyst to know the future but I want to know if he is good at showing overall tendencies and is able to read signals that indicate shifts to either direction. He can still be wrong if big players manipulate the market- like he was with that recent bull trap. If others come to draw similar conclusions it might give him a whole lot of credibility though.

Bitcoin has an extremely volatile market, so it's even more important to know quickly if something is changing underneath the surface market price.

Ideally, I'd wish for such a service to calculate other risk factors as well - such as the aftermath and long-term effects of the recent btc thefts and its implications. I'd understand if this is impossible to do if you just believe in numbers and graphs. Perhaps that's a job for the speculation forum instead. It'd be nice though.

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March 25, 2012, 07:39:34 PM
 #2128

The Bitcoin theft you keep talking about to the tune of ~45k has become completely meaningless as time progressed and the thief already likely cashed out long ago.

Bitcoin inflation is ~7.2k daily, so that’s not even one week of inflation. It’s nothing.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
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March 25, 2012, 08:28:06 PM
 #2129

The Bitcoin theft you keep talking about to the tune of ~45k has become completely meaningless as time progressed and the thief already likely cashed out long ago.

Bitcoin inflation is ~7.2k daily, so that’s not even one week of inflation. It’s nothing.

I know. I'm not worried about the 45k though, but about this entire Gox freezing accounts and playing police ordeal. Still worried about people supposedly writing programs to filter tainted coins and etc. Connect the dots. I read those threads and think it isn't actually a problem for now, but I'd love to be warned not only about the minor risks about the major threats as well. Unless everyone decides bitcoin is invincible and sticks their head in the sand. It'd be good to have analysts calc in such scenarios as well because to me, it may as well be one of those major flaws that can potentially bring down bitcoin entirely. If you could give an all-clear here, I'd go and buy some more bitcoins right away.

notme
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March 26, 2012, 12:23:53 AM
 #2130

At 5.2 he was saying up up up.

So was waveaddict... I have a feeling that is why someone decided down was the best option Wink.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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fcmatt
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March 26, 2012, 12:40:47 AM
 #2131

and what was/were the reasons for up, up, up? that lines drawn on charts (the tossing of bones in the btc world equivalent, btw) predicted upwards movement?
seems people need to get away from that and find valid reasons for upward price movements based in reality. like 1000 new online stores accept bitcoin or
bitcoin gambling is exploding with users or micro payment success with several websites revolving around digital goods (video games). until then....
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March 26, 2012, 12:56:32 AM
 #2132

Notme was just trolling...   

But this guy is not right 100% of the time even thought he pretends he is. I just wonder how much over 50% it is.

Actually, his analysis consists not only of calls. More often than not they contain predictions like: "if it goes below x, it'll drop to x2, if it goes above y on the other hand (this possibility we estimate at z%), it might rise to y1 or even y2". Now this information can be made use of, also.

S3052 might be a bit braggy at times, but he never said he was right 100% of the time. Subscribers know this anyhow and the public now also does Wink

You are right, they are mostly like if it goes up, it will go up more, then down later. Or if it goes down, it will go down more and then later up.

I was just unclear when he said the expected outcome as he always gives two options. I subscribe btw for people who don't know. At 5.2 he was saying up up up.

He is bullish, so his predictions are very accurate when bitcoin is in a bull market.
molecular
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March 26, 2012, 01:49:10 PM
 #2133

Hey guys, I have a question.

So I'm using this bot I wrote and I thought I'd follow suggestion from the last weekly report to "sell below 4.50". And set it to sell some coins (luckily not many) when price would go below 4.48. It followed my orders and sold around 4.475 when the price spiked down a bit more than a day ago.

Well, this didn't work out well (at least so far).

Question: how should I program the bot? I could, for example make it wait for a certain amount of time or a certain amount of volume traded with the price meeting the condition? That might've avoided the wrong sell signal in this case. On the other hand, if the price just crashes through the treshold, waiting would not be a good option and I'd probably have to use a price range or minimum price to sell at to avoid selling too low.

Any ideas?


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pent
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March 26, 2012, 01:52:30 PM
 #2134

Bot is a good way converting money to nothing providing liquidity to rest of market. Don't stop Smiley
molecular
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March 26, 2012, 02:06:24 PM
 #2135

Bot is a good way converting money to nothing providing liquidity to rest of market. Don't stop Smiley

Heh, I wouldn't exactly call the amounts my bot has at his disposal "liquidity".

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RyNinDaCleM
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March 26, 2012, 02:22:13 PM
 #2136

Hey guys, I have a question.

So I'm using this bot I wrote and I thought I'd follow suggestion from the last weekly report to "sell below 4.50". And set it to sell some coins (luckily not many) when price would go below 4.48. It followed my orders and sold around 4.475 when the price spiked down a bit more than a day ago.

Well, this didn't work out well (at least so far).

Question: how should I program the bot? I could, for example make it wait for a certain amount of time or a certain amount of volume traded with the price meeting the condition? That might've avoided the wrong sell signal in this case. On the other hand, if the price just crashes through the treshold, waiting would not be a good option and I'd probably have to use a price range or minimum price to sell at to avoid selling too low.

Any ideas?



I would suggest NOT using a bot as a panic seller/stop-loss unless written to include other indicators. Seems to me, the only way for it to work well as a stop-loss bot would be if the price blows through, and keeps going, and that just doesn't happen very often anymore. There would almost always be a retrace to catch a better price.
Set the bot to notify you when approaching your target liquidation price maybe. Then you determine what action to take.

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March 27, 2012, 07:20:02 PM
 #2137

It's interesting that after a while of absence of huge walls, we see a wall again. Maybe the so called "manipulator" is back.

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March 27, 2012, 08:02:40 PM
 #2138

It's interesting that after a while of absence of huge walls, we see a wall again. Maybe the so called "manipulator" is back.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=66627.msg822614#msg822614

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March 27, 2012, 09:22:18 PM
 #2139

interesting, but I will not get into this

By the way, just sent a new short term bitcoin prices and bitcoin charts analysis to subscribers

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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March 27, 2012, 09:33:58 PM
 #2140

Honestly, I would not take him seriously at all. It is impossible to create such a trading racket in a way that everyone trusts the other, and no serious investors would take part in it to gather enough funds to set up a 40k bid wall. It is also too risky to profit off such a method longer term (market doesn’t fall for walls eventually).

So, S3052, I guess your update was bullish? Grin

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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