Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[dree12]

Would it be benificial to update the OP? It's horribly misrepresentative of the current Bitcoin situation.

[S3052]

Would it be benificial to update the OP? It's horribly misrepresentative of the current Bitcoin situation.

Thank you. You are right, I will update it soon

[S3052]

short term update mailed

[S3052]

This month, we offer a special 2 weeks trial subscription for new subscribers for 1.90 Bitcoins.
Send an e-mail to S3052@gmx.ch to register by May 15th, 2012.

[S3052]

The Bitcoin Weekly Report newsletter with bitcoin price forecast is out to subscribers

[ArticMine]

There is also a report attributed to S3502 in the press section. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80755.0

[codymanix]

*lol*

The funny thing is, always if S3502 starts announcing a big rally, the prices start dropping. This also works the other way around, so its predictions can work well as a good contraindicator

This cannot be just coincidence that the market is relatively stable for nearly a month, and as soon as S3502 starts talking about the big breakout, and the rally that will retest all-time-high (the usual bubble words, you know), then price drops down like a stone.

[S3052]

*lol*

The funny thing is, always if S3502 starts announcing a big rally, the prices start dropping. This also works the other way around, so its predictions can work well as a good contraindicator

This cannot be just coincidence that the market is relatively stable for nearly a month, and as soon as S3502 starts talking about the big breakout, and the rally that will retest all-time-high (the usual bubble words, you know), then price drops down like a stone.

To clarify. It is exactly the opposite of what you are talking about.
The article mentioned is actually based on the May 2 weekly bitcoin newsletter.

Yesterday evening, May 10th, we issued a new analysis and turned bearish. Right after that it is when prices fell.

The most recent analyses are only for paying subscribers.

[proudhon]

*lol*

The funny thing is, always if S3502 starts announcing a big rally, the prices start dropping. This also works the other way around, so its predictions can work well as a good contraindicator

This cannot be just coincidence that the market is relatively stable for nearly a month, and as soon as S3502 starts talking about the big breakout, and the rally that will retest all-time-high (the usual bubble words, you know), then price drops down like a stone.

To clarify. It is exactly the opposite of what you are talking about.
The article mentioned is actually based on the May 2 weekly bitcoin newsletter.

Yesterday evening, May 10th, we issued a new analysis and turned bearish. Right after that it is when prices fell.

The most recent analyses are only for paying subscribers.

Um, it may have had its basis in an analysis you made on May 2nd, but that public update, published on May 10th, referenced dates and used charts after May 2nd (e.g. May 3rd and May 9th).  And at the start of the public update your voice seems to be pretty clearly speaking from the present.  Given all that, it now seems even more odd that you would issue this public update on May 10th (whether it had some basis in May 2nd's update or not) and then privately issue to your subscribers, on the very same day, as you just confessed, a new analysis which "turned bearish".  I was a subscriber of yours for some time.  You seem like a nice guy, but this smells bad.

[S3052]

Its quite simple and nothing bad here: The article is based on May 2 analysis with an update from May 9. Then I did the May 10 analysis and the short term chart picture changed bearish.

[S3052]

New short term alert out to subscribers:
TITLE: The ALL-IN-CHART

[S3052]

One day left to register for the special 2 weeks trial subscription for new subscribers for 1.90 Bitcoins.
Send an e-mail to S3052@gmx.ch to register by May 15th, 2012.

We already have many new people using this offer. THANK YOU

P.S. Here the latest feedback:
+ "I've enjoyed the quality of your report very much. Thanks so much for your professionalism and overdelivery - whenever a notable event occurred, you were there with an update."

+ "thank you for your services. You are doing a wonderful job"

[S3052]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

[molecular]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

[S3052]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

Here is one little analysis trying to address your question.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/

[molecular]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

Here is one little analysis trying to address your question.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/

BitcoinAnalyst said about an hour ago
The bitcoin price volatility has been at historic lows recently.
Over the past 10 days, this has started to change: Since May 6, volatility is on the rise and very likely will rise more in the next weeks.

this doesn't explain much, but you got me interested.

The interwebs tell me:

In finance, volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time.

I don't see the price jump around (vary) more than usual in recent times (since may 6th).

Can you explain how you measure volatility? Is there an indicator on bitcoincharts that shows volatility?

[S3052]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

Here is one little analysis trying to address your question.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/

BitcoinAnalyst said about an hour ago
The bitcoin price volatility has been at historic lows recently.
Over the past 10 days, this has started to change: Since May 6, volatility is on the rise and very likely will rise more in the next weeks.

this doesn't explain much, but you got me interested.

The interwebs tell me:

In finance, volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time.

I don't see the price jump around (vary) more than usual in recent times (since may 6th).

Can you explain how you measure volatility? Is there an indicator on bitcoincharts that shows volatility?

There are many ways to look at volatility. Two of them are:
* Bollinger bands (this one and the one below are available on bitcoincharts). You also see in this case that the bands are a bit wider than at the very narrow range on May 10

* Chaikin's Volatility: "Chaikin's Volatility indicator measures the volatility of a security. High values indicate that prices are changing a large amount during the day. Low values indicate that prices are staying relatively constant. Note that both trending and level prices can have high or low volatility." http://www.tradingsolutions.com/functions/ChaikinsVolatility.html

[molecular]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

Here is one little analysis trying to address your question.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/

BitcoinAnalyst said about an hour ago
The bitcoin price volatility has been at historic lows recently.
Over the past 10 days, this has started to change: Since May 6, volatility is on the rise and very likely will rise more in the next weeks.

this doesn't explain much, but you got me interested.

The interwebs tell me:

In finance, volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time.

I don't see the price jump around (vary) more than usual in recent times (since may 6th).

Can you explain how you measure volatility? Is there an indicator on bitcoincharts that shows volatility?

There are many ways to look at volatility. Two of them are:
* Bollinger bands (this one and the one below are available on bitcoincharts). You also see in this case that the bands are a bit wider than at the very narrow range on May 10

* Chaikin's Volatility: "Chaikin's Volatility indicator measures the volatility of a security. High values indicate that prices are changing a large amount during the day. Low values indicate that prices are staying relatively constant. Note that both trending and level prices can have high or low volatility." http://www.tradingsolutions.com/functions/ChaikinsVolatility.html

still having a hard time understanding, especially potential implications.

everything from 5.10 down to 4.80 has been cleared on may 10th, naturally there is less friction on the way back up ("ease of movement" == "not much friction"). What are the implications of high volatility (in the past)?

[S3052]

New short term update for #bitcoin charts issued to subscribers: TITLE: More reasons why..

[S3052]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

Here is one little analysis trying to address your question.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/

BitcoinAnalyst said about an hour ago
The bitcoin price volatility has been at historic lows recently.
Over the past 10 days, this has started to change: Since May 6, volatility is on the rise and very likely will rise more in the next weeks.

this doesn't explain much, but you got me interested.

The interwebs tell me:

In finance, volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time.

I don't see the price jump around (vary) more than usual in recent times (since may 6th).

Can you explain how you measure volatility? Is there an indicator on bitcoincharts that shows volatility?

There are many ways to look at volatility. Two of them are:
* Bollinger bands (this one and the one below are available on bitcoincharts). You also see in this case that the bands are a bit wider than at the very narrow range on May 10

* Chaikin's Volatility: "Chaikin's Volatility indicator measures the volatility of a security. High values indicate that prices are changing a large amount during the day. Low values indicate that prices are staying relatively constant. Note that both trending and level prices can have high or low volatility." http://www.tradingsolutions.com/functions/ChaikinsVolatility.html

still having a hard time understanding, especially potential implications.

everything from 5.10 down to 4.80 has been cleared on may 10th, naturally there is less friction on the way back up ("ease of movement" == "not much friction"). What are the implications of high volatility (in the past)?

Volatility is something that is only one of many possible indicators. I only use it with care and again, only in conjunction with many other tools.
If volatility is EXTREMELY LOW (like currently), it just says that very likely there will be some explosive price action afterward. But low volatility can persist for quite a while. Nevertheless, it almost never fails to anticipate very sharp movements. But patience is warranted until then.

As one example, look at AAPL

From Oct 2008 to Apr 2009 is trading at historically low volatility (as expressed through the bollinger bands which narrowed to a tight range in Apr 2009). And then look what happened afterwards. Now look at the past months in bitcoins..