Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[miscreanity]

Channels are important and to me the market says this is not an issue. The thick blue line in the LTCBTC chart is the long-term downtrend from the 2013-2015 highs. This run should go to 0.015 at a minimum. I also consider this to be a stair-step advance where the decline is not enough to allow solid entry points, but sufficient to force weak holders into panic selling.

Additionally, markets like to fill the gaps seen on the downward move in the LTCBTC chart, so we should come back up to at least close those.

We have until April 10th for the long-term downtrend and the bottom of the current channel to force a direction. There is likely to be a decisive move over the weekend, which I expect to be positive.

I would sell some if 0.00855-0.00865 is broken, and most if 0.00775 is breached.



...

We are still within the channel!

We actually fell out and down to the price targets. I should've made the distinction that the numbers were for the daily period despite the charts being hourly, otherwise I would've sold most of my holdings below 0.00775 down to 0.0073. Instead, 0.00775 held on the daily level and appears to be forming up as support.



Since the pattern formed from the drop out of the rising blue channel did not continue down on the 8th but actually broke up and out of the declining red channel, traders became trapped and bailed down to where 0.0075 became the battleground. I'll stop short of saying this is blatant whale manipulation action designed to squeeze extra profit, but I've seen this type of price movement all too often in the precious metals markets.

Obviously the move was not positive but negative. We have hit a low going into April 10th which has done an excellent job of shaking the weak hands out - volume and the second breakout from the downward channel suggest a consolidation period or even a resumption of gradual rise as smart money continues building its position.

Note the disparity between exchanges with as much as USD 0.40 or BTC 0.0001 difference. The leveraged exchanges tend to lead the way with expanding spreads going into price rises and shrinking or even reversing spreads going into declines.

I had sold some at 0.0085 and picked back up under 0.0077 since the momentum began from outside of the channel. You were absolutely correct in buying that dip down to 0.0073 and we now only need to break above 0.0081 on the daily level to continue up. Also daily, just shy of 0.0076 will become support if it holds.

An expanded channel appears to be forming after today's low, and the monthly channel resistance and support are 0.0188 and 0.0135 respectively.

[iamnotback]

I have to learn to never second guess my convictions:

I sold my LTC. It broke down out of the symmetric wedge. Now we have to see if it is a false breakdown with a pullback. Otherwise it is headed back to 0.0075 or below. The market apparently is very doubtful, so maybe we have to pullback and reload.

[iamnotback]

We need to look at potential 100 to 1000'ers.

How about PIVX? looks like its going to hit 1 USD finally. Once it hits 1, then why not 5, or 10?

It's a DASH clone, without instamine and so on. Now it just needs to hire some pretty girl to shill on youtube. Looks like it's cheap enough to profit from a big bubble that I think will eventually happen.
Also its not even polo yet.

What the hell else is there? we need to look at coins that are under the radar with some potential for a good ol pump, ideally flat coins or at least under 1 USD relative to total supply. I know PIVX is at the end of the another joke, im just trying to guess a good pump. This one seems like a decent gamble. If it hits 2 USD that's already good profits.
Of course the problem of massive whales in this coin and constant risk to megadump is there, but whales are greedy, they will enjoy seeing the price go higher.

It is risk versus reward. I am not going to buy that dogshit PIVX at the top of a recent pump, with only a potential 100% gain.

I'll risk on LTC, because the upside potential is 300+% gain and the downside seems small now, unless the entire SegWit on Litecoin is a mirage.

There is nothing else that is a good risk versus reward.

Byteball if you like betting on smallcaps, but I been telling you that since it was $1 million marketcap. I didn't have time to fool around with trying to figure how to buy it since it isn't on Poloneix. I am not trying to get rich with my 12 BTC. I'll get rich on launching my own altcoin.

Thus I am very picky about risk vs. reward. I want moderate risk and very excellent reward. But I don't want extreme risk and hassle of investing 0.5BTC in Byteball hoping for 100X gain. I know Byteball has a flawed design and as soon as I launch my altcoin, Byteball will have no more reason to exist. Ditto most of the other altcoins out there.

Litecoin will still have a reason to exist after I launch my altcoin, if SegWit is added.

I suggested Stratis to someone here, but he didn't think it would offer anything over Hyperledger and I didn't have time to belabor the point. It has since risen quite a bit.

I just don't have enough time for this. I need to put my head back into coding. I need something I can HODL and ignore. So for me it is BTC or LTC (or perhaps ETH).

[miscreanity]

I have to learn to never second guess my convictions:

You're not the only one

[iamnotback]

https://twitter.com/shaolinfry/status/850995104240336896

A single truth a rumor of Jihan using his power to crush segwit is already crashing the market hard, just like everytime he makes an statement about blocking segwit in BTC and so on.

Im sick of this bullshit, we need to get rid of this idiot. UASF segwit or whatever I don't give a fuck, im sick of a single guy with a ton of mining power crashing markets at will and make millions shorting while doing nothing. This is fucking NUTS.

Ah Chinamen are manipulating the price of LTC, shaking out the weak hands and day traders so they can buy some more LTC cheap.

I also read that LTC1BTC was flashing 700 GH/s on their website. It is a lot of BS lies to manipulate the price.

UASF would fuck the coin because nobody wants to trust a democracy with their money.

Just be patient, the Chinamen want higher prices, they just want to extract the most they can on the way up.

I actually love what these miners are doing. Because they will create huge demand for my altcoin which doesn't use PoW. Many pissed off users/investors are going to looking for something better that miners can't fuck with. The day traders love the volatility.

I suppose someone is making a lot of money off of these segwit hopers. If the sheep react so predictably, the wolf can run rings around them.

Yup.

Re: Blockchain powered internet?

I'm not sure if this exists yet, but if it does, it would totally decentralize the internet.

...

What do you think?

That is my altcoin project, BitNet.

This has nothing to do with centralization

The databases on the Internet are centralized, e.g. Facebook's DB, Reddit's DB, Bitcointalk's DB, Stackexchange's DB.

All of them must die. Will be replaced with open blockchain.

I don't think that markets are crashing because of the non adoption of segwit. The thing is, bitcoin's speculative market would likely benefit gelreatly if consensus was finally reached. So far though, in spite of the lack of agreement among parties with influence, the price reached ATH levels. This is indicative that speculators don't really care.

I think everyone got excited because they thought @Gmaxwell could slay Bitmain. But now the reality is starting to hit people. Bitcoin is NEVER going to get any more significant changes to its protocol.

Looks to me that BTC is topping out again and another ride down awaits.

Should have traded BTC's top for LTC's recent bottom. Trade it like a seesaw.

[iamnotback]

I am torn between seeing it two ways:

1. The value of the coin could collapse because democracy is ultimately not what we had hoped for in Crypto. We believed it was immutable and trusted the code so to speak. This means we need a new solution that truly can't be manipulated. (Perhaps that would be your solution)

2. Confidence will be shaken and price will drop as result of hard fork uncertainties, but hard forks are what ensures decentralization. People choose short term pain/long term gain over. In the end we are still free to choose forks or any other alt-coins, so it comes down to widespread education and the decisions of individuals.


So you believe LTC will become immutable in the same way as BTC (eventually stuck in a stalemate)?

UASF either means the whales are colluding in which case we can never trust that coin ever again, or it will fail in chaos. Both of which are very bad.

Immutability is the only reason we trust to keep our money in a token. If whales control the thing, we might as well put our money in a private bank without any regulation.

Litecoin may already be immutability and will certainly become so as the vested interests diverge within it. But I think the low marketcap means there is a very strong incentive for Scrypt manufacturers and individual miners to want to add scaling via SegWit to Litecoin otherwise Litecoin is basically just a xerox of Bitcoin that no one needs.

The gimicks of 2.5 min blocks and 4X more transaction rate capacity on chain, don't seem to be compelling enough to justify a serious huge move of users into Litecoin.

If Litecoin forsakes its opportunity then I guess some other scaling altcoin will takes its place.

I don't know, the fact is that a coin or open source in general can be forked. Anybody could create LTC2 from scratch with all the features, but it wouldn't have the network effect, which is arguably the most important thing. Is creating a situation where there is a contentious hard fork on an existing blockchain showing us the flaws in their design or is it just natural economics and the market will reward or punish the good vs the bad, with good winning out eventually? I know you say that that POW is flawed because it tends towards centralization, but aren't hard forks counter to that just like the fact that we can choose alt-coins if we believe BTC is too centralized?

HFs are centralized control. Democracy is not decentralization.

We hope that Litecoin has 75% consensus for SegWit SF, but then hope the mcap will rise enough that from then on no major protocol changes can attain consensus.

Litecoin suddenly became massively undervalued when it became apparent that Bitcoin can't ever get SegWit (scaling), and Litecoin is the best possible fit and given its very low price and mcap, then it might be possible to get 75% consensus.

Also the chart of LTC is telling me that it is the anointed scaling coin that its price will rise to $100 over the next year or so.

Its possible the SegWit will fail and LTC will fade away. But I think the odds of that not very high.

Which other coin could Jihan anoint for scaling? It would be insane for him to be totally against scaling.

[iamnotback]

HFs are centralized control. Democracy is not decentralization.

We hope that Litecoin has 75% consensus for SegWit SF, but then hope the mcap will rise enough that from then on no major protocol changes can attain consensus.

Litecoin suddenly became massively undervalued when it became apparent that Bitcoin can't ever get SegWit (scaling), and Litecoin is the best possible fit and given its very low price and mcap, then it might be possible to get 75% consensus.

Also the chart of LTC is telling me that it is the anointed scaling coin that its price will rise to $100 over the next year or so.

Its possible the SegWit will fail and LTC will fade away. But I think the odds of that not very high.

Which other coin could Jihan anoint for scaling? It would be insane for him to be totally against scaling.

To be clear, I'm talking from the perspective that ultimately having a choice between currencies is ensuring decentralization from a higher level. My argument is not what is decentralized at the protocol or coin level. Obviously a coin that can be controlled by whales or miners is not decentralized, but unless these coins become mandated through law (as fiat) then ultimately can't we just abandon them when it's clear they've become hostile toward us? So isn't the real power simply about choice?

But if all our options have the same flaws, then the multiple choices theory is also centralization.

See if humans can UASF on one blockchain or SF, then they will do it on all, because humans are incapable of resisting their urge to fuck themselves with democracy.

So if Bitcoin fails immutability, then PoW is toasted and the entire blockchain ecosystem might collapse, because alternatives such as PoS are centralized and controllable by whales because there is nothing-at-stake to attack it.

Jihan Wu is protecting us from ourselves.

[iamnotback]

See my comment there:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/64kavb/be_very_careful_segwit_signaling_percentage/

[iamnotback]

Not really:
We are rather in the blue channel right now :

So in terms of the right chart, we are still within an upward channel, barely.

Insane volatility due to the hashrate/signaling manipulation.

[vlight]

Will BitNet have transaction fees?

[iamnotback]

Will BitNet have transaction fees?

Yes. Burned fees that is. Perpetual deflation.

Fee-less designs are fundamentally flawed. But PoW is fundamentally incompatible with scaling and fees.

[vlight]

Will BitNet have transaction fees?

Yes. Burned fees that is. Perpetual deflation.

Fee-less designs are fundamentally flawed. But PoW is fundamentally incompatible with scaling and fees.

Ah, so you don't think that XRB or IOTA can survive too? I really like the idea of no tx fees and hopefully it will work in practice. 

[iamnotback]

Will BitNet have transaction fees?

Yes. Burned fees that is. Perpetual deflation.

Fee-less designs are fundamentally flawed. But PoW is fundamentally incompatible with scaling and fees.

Ah, so you don't think that XRB or IOTA can survive too? I really like the idea of no tx fees and hopefully it will work in practice.  

IOTA has a fee. Each transaction must be submitted along with PoW. The PoW is the fee and it is burned.

My doubts about IOTA are its Monte Carlo consensus algorithm because I don't see how it is self-enforcing decentralized. I am waiting for them to remove the centralized servers so I can see if it blows up.

RaiBlocks is complete nonsense. @monsterer and I critiqued year or more ago.

Please let's not start an altcoin discussion here.

I am sort of regretting ever getting involved with LTC, but I'm already in so I will ride it out for the time being.

I mentioned my BitNet only because I am pissed off with what is going on with PoW, Bitcoin, Litecoin, etc.. I really shouldn't be here talking. Like to sell my LTC and go back to coding. But I guess I'll hold my LTC for time being. Very nerve wracking. I am wasting too much time posting on forum.

[vlight]

Will BitNet have transaction fees?

Yes. Burned fees that is. Perpetual deflation.

Fee-less designs are fundamentally flawed. But PoW is fundamentally incompatible with scaling and fees.

Ah, so you don't think that XRB or IOTA can survive too? I really like the idea of no tx fees and hopefully it will work in practice.  

IOTA has a fee. Each transaction must be submitted along with PoW. The PoW is the fee and it is burned.

My doubts about IOTA are its Monte Carlo consensus algorithm because I don't see how it is self-enforcing decentralized. I am waiting for them to remove the centralized servers so I can see if it blows up.

RaiBlocks is complete nonsense. @monsterer and I critiqued year or more ago.

Please let's not start an altcoin discussion here.

I am sort of regretting ever getting involved with LTC, but I'm already in so I will ride it out for the time being.

I mentioned my BitNet only because I am pissed off with what is going on with PoW, Bitcoin, Litecoin, etc.. I really shouldn't be here talking. Like to sell my LTC and go back to coding. But I guess I'll hold my LTC for time being. Very nerve wracking. I am wasting too much time posting on forum.

Your opinion is much appreciated. Thank you.

Looking forward for BitNet. I'm sure it will be a success 

[iamnotback]

Looking forward for BitNet. I'm sure it will be a success 

Only if I can get my ass in gear on coding.

So if I disappear, that is a good thing.

[THX 1138]

Looking forward for BitNet. I'm sure it will be a success 

Only if I can get my ass in gear on coding.

So if I disappear, that is a good thing.

Also looking forward to BitNet (I've been keeping watch for a couple of years now as the project gestates), so in that sense I hope I don't see you here for a while ;-)

Btw, am also riding the LTC train following your call the other day. Got in low - cheers!

[btcbug]

Back up to 71%!

409/576 (71.01%) blocks signaling in the past 24 hours!
http://litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php

[Okurkabinladin]

IamnotBack,

what are your thoughts on Monero? Rpietila in its opening days bit prematurely called it great improvement of Bitcoin/Litecoin (its cryptography makes far harder to crack, supposedly). Even though it didnt took off at once, eventually the price soared well after its launch. Its inflation model also makes it potentionally viable as a store of value.

Hot balloon or an investment opportunity?

[Wexlike]

Monero is anonymous(ring-signatures) and therefore much bigger transaction sizes than Bitcoin(>3x), has a variable blocksize(not necessary a positive feature), infinite block reward of 1 monero(not necessary a positive feature), no gui interface - only command line, fair mining schedule but had a rather big botnet mining problem in its existence. I find it currently rather expensive(or fair ).

[trollercoaster]

monero pedo pennies dumps fairly hard whenever the other top shitcoins moon, so there's opportunities to buy in when it dumps. Imo it seems to be establishing itself as the official pedo (black market) coin, so it has an opportunity to replace bitcoin in that niche when bitcoins high fees become an issue,  long term the price should rise.