Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dreamspark]

Where is the best place to get an accurate view of the Chinese exchnages order books?

[N12]

Where is the best place to get an accurate view of the Chinese exchnages order books?

Don't forget that any "accurate view" would still be prone to manipulation on the exchange operators' behalf.

[slapper]

Yawn. Bit is an option to a brave new world. Some of its characteristics:

- Assuming 10 billion people, everybody has a quota of 2,000.
- No inflation
- No storage cost
- No confiscation
- Does not expire
- Your quota costs $1, or a little less. Previously it was $2, some time last year $0.05.
- If you want to be shrewd, buy the quota of others because they scorn it, and sell it to them when the price is right.

Anything that happens before just has to happen.

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

That is one hardcore used-bitcoin salesman. Do people fall for this or motivational speeches are the need of the hour....

[TERA]

Yawn. Bit is an option to a brave new world. Some of its characteristics:

- Assuming 10 billion people, everybody has a quota of 2,000.
- No inflation
- No storage cost
- No confiscation
- Does not expire
- Your quota costs $1, or a little less. Previously it was $2, some time last year $0.05.
- If you want to be shrewd, buy the quota of others because they scorn it, and sell it to them when the price is right.

Anything that happens before just has to happen.

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

which crypto do you think they will adopt?

We'll first off it's not even guaranteed that the world will adopt any form of crypto but if they do it might be something that is nothing like any of the current 'coins'. It might be non-blockchain-based and use some other technology that we can't even imagine currently.

[octaft]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Where have I heard that before? Oh wait, $600.

[TERA]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Where have I heard that before? Oh wait, $600.

I heard it at $800 and even $1000

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, honestly, what if tomorrow our beloved PBOC dudes wake up with a bad migrain, and start the FUD again?? can TA predict that???

It didnt rain yesterday, it isnt raining now... are you sure it wont rain tomorrow???

Enough of the TA predictions..

By and large I don't believe in TA either.  But "tomorrow the weather will be like today" used to be a pretty good weather prediction method, 10-20 years ago. Meteorologists with satellites and supercomputers could barely get a few percent more accuracy than that.  (Now they may do much better, I don't know.) 

I suspect that piecewise extrapolation can do a little better than that trivial method, AT HUOBI, FOR MIDDLE-OF-NIGHT PRICES, because of very special circumstances in that exchange.  At some point I will tabulate and compare the two methods.  But I am afraid of what I might conclude then... 

[ShroomsKit]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Come on. You can be a bull and not be delusional. The chances of going up and getting dumped on by China again are quite high.

[magicmexican]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

[wachtwoord]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Come on. You can be a bull and not be delusional. The chances of going up and getting dumped on by China again are quite high.

I think Silverfuture's exactly right and you are being quite naive

[TERA]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

+1

[ShroomsKit]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Come on. You can be a bull and not be delusional. The chances of going up and getting dumped on by China again are quite high.

I think Silverfuture's exactly right and you are being quite naive

I'm naive because i keep in mind several bad things might happen to Bitcoin again? Really? That is being naive

[wachtwoord]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Come on. You can be a bull and not be delusional. The chances of going up and getting dumped on by China again are quite high.

I think Silverfuture's exactly right and you are being quite naive

I'm naive because i keep in mind several bad things might happen to Bitcoin again? Really? That is being naive

You didn't state a single bad thing. People dumping because of fear is not a bad thing for Bitcoin. In fact, it's part of the natural growth cycle of Bitcoin and where those intelligent enough to think contrarian make most of their money.

When something comes along that's actually bad for Bitcoin (successful 51% attack, large leak in the hashing algorithm, an altcoin which truly better fundamentals) we'll talk again and I'll probably agree with you but now? No freaking way. I'm sorry but you're just one of the many scared sheep

[octaft]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Where have I heard that before? Oh wait, $600.

I heard it at $800 and even $1000

Let me rephrase that: when's the last time I heard that. 

[HerrAndreas]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Where have I heard that before? Oh wait, $600.

I heard it at $800 and even $1000

Let me rephrase that: when's the last time I heard that. 

520

[octaft]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Where have I heard that before? Oh wait, $600.

I heard it at $800 and even $1000

Let me rephrase that: when's the last time I heard that. 

520

 

[dreamspark]

Where is the best place to get an accurate view of the Chinese exchnages order books?

Don't forget that any "accurate view" would still be prone to manipulation on the exchange operators' behalf.

Agreed, maybe I should re phrase that to where is the best place to at least attempt to get a semi accurate view of the Chinese order books 

[xulescu]

Let's be abstract and agnostic.

I find it interesting that gaming behaviour is so obvious in BTC. Analizing this as a zero-sum game is misleading and dangerous.

First, one BTC has no obvious way to be priced (or just bounded) independent of market (unlike in game theoretical example problems, no one really knows their utility function). Aminorex's excellent wampum model is a lower bound but it also includes an arbitrary multiplicative constant. The constant can be lower bounded however.

Second, there is no "common knowledge" about the valuation, unlike stocks where everyone has learned the same ways to price fundamentals. Even if this methodology is wrong, everyone knows everyone knows it and so its output is an attractor for the system.

Therefore, all players game other players and not the system. Everyone looks at everyone and practically the independence of any k-player clique is very low in expectation.

Third, in any protocol made for strategic players ("mechanism design") that seeks consensus, colluding players will have superior strategies available (caveats, might be undecidable, untractable, or not simply not yet known). In the BTC price example, private common knowledge is whale/miner social-clubs/guilds that share strategies and public common knowledge is TA/EW rules and news/fora. There can be multiple attractors and some players can attempt to game trend changes (bifurcation paths).

Finally, if a TDM/death attractor dominates it becomes self fulfilling (barring catastrophic communication failure). I believe right now that is far from the case and we have many weak attractors all over the place. The more uncertainty there is about the strengths of the attractors in play, the easier it is to trigger a cascade from one attractor's to another's basins.

Thoughts?

Edit: It seems like the main common knowledge attractor at the moment is that China sets the price, and China will keep setting it lower. It doesn't matter if this is actually happening, it's what everyone knows that everyone knows. If this attractor is indeed orchestrated, then the news can simply be communication intended to gather momentum from those who understand the language, while creating as much confusion as possible otherwise.

[JorgeStolfi]

We'll first off it's not even guaranteed that the world will adopt any form of crypto but if they do it might be something that is nothing like any of the current 'coins'. It might be non-blockchain-based and use some other technology that we can't even imagine currently.

I can imagine two radical alternatives: cryptocurrencies issued and managed by (1) large private multinational companies or consortia (banks, insurance companies, retailers, google, facebook, ...)  or (2) national governments (USAcoin, BitEuro, RussiaCoin, etc.).

These cryptos would retain the idea of offline generation of address/key pairs, but junk all the other "features" of bitcoin (anonymity, decentralized management, independence from gov & banks, irrevocability, mining, limited number, deflation, ...).  Libertarians would hate them (and would hate (1) too), but for most consumers and retailers they may be even better than bitcoin.

[wachtwoord]

We'll first off it's not even guaranteed that the world will adopt any form of crypto but if they do it might be something that is nothing like any of the current 'coins'. It might be non-blockchain-based and use some other technology that we can't even imagine currently.

I can imagine two radical alternatives: cryptocurrencies issued and managed by (1) large private multinational companies or consortia (banks, insurance companies, retailers, google, facebook, ...)  or (2) national governments (USAcoin, BitEuro, RussiaCoin, etc.).

These cryptos would retain the idea of offline generation of address/key pairs, but junk all the other "features" of bitcoin (anonymity, decentralized management, independence from gov & banks, irrevocability, mining, limited number, deflation, ...).  Libertarians would hate them (and would hate (1) too), but for most consumers and retailers they may be even better than bitcoin.

No, people might perceive them as better.