Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

The train is rocketing up right now.

The train has slowed down but it is still going up.

We're going up after this brief consolidation.

We're going up after a long consolidation.

We're going up after this small dip.

We're going up after a large dip.

Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.

It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.

It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

[Cassius]

The train is rocketing up right now.

The train has slowed down but it is still going up.

We're going up after this brief consolidation.

We're going up after a long consolidation.

We're going up after this small dip.

We're going up after a large dip.

Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.

It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.

It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

This makes a lot of sense. The 'bottoms' that people have called so far have seemed far too bouncy for me. I don't know a great deal about TA and the way markets move, but shouldn't a capitulation be a bit more depressingly flat, rather than recovering 30% in a matter of hours/days?

[oda.krell]

The train is rocketing up right now.

The train has slowed down but it is still going up.

We're going up after this brief consolidation.

We're going up after a long consolidation.

We're going up after this small dip.

We're going up after a large dip.

Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.

It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.

It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

This makes a lot of sense. The 'bottoms' that people have called so far have seemed far too bouncy for me. I don't know a great deal about TA and the way markets move, but shouldn't a capitulation be a bit more depressingly flat, rather than recovering 30% in a matter of hours/days?

Depends, I'd say. In July 2013 we saw an almost immediate recovery of more than 50% up from the final capitulation bottom.

Then we lost a lot of that in the following week(s), especially through one large dump on July 18.

What made the reversal last however (imo) was how price found support across some of the levels. It went quite low, but touched the 61% retracement once. Then recovered really beautifully. 20 days after the first post capitulation swing up, we had a new high.

That's the situation I'm (more or less) looking for to consider we've really left the bear market of 2014 behind.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

get your tickets now

train leaving soon



If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry. -Satoshi

[dreamspark]

get your tickets now

train leaving soon

I think you came out of cryo around the wrong time Adam

[podyx]

Beartrap coming up

[windjc]

The train is rocketing up right now.

The train has slowed down but it is still going up.

We're going up after this brief consolidation.

We're going up after a long consolidation.

We're going up after this small dip.

We're going up after a large dip.

Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.

It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.

It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction"  I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist.

It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight.

[windjc]

The train is rocketing up right now.

The train has slowed down but it is still going up.

We're going up after this brief consolidation.

We're going up after a long consolidation.

We're going up after this small dip.

We're going up after a large dip.

Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.

It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.

It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.

This is actually a very funny post.

But as bearish as Ive sounded lately, I am not convinced we are going to market too many more of that list.

[magicmexican]

Looks like that 12h MacD does not fuck around, i wonder if 450 will hold

[Erdogan]

Sometimes I think that the sentiment this thread rules the market.

[adamstgBit]

470 is long gone

it will only go up

This is the train



You've been waiting for

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Guinpen]

Looks like that 12h MacD does not fuck around, i wonder if 450 will hold

Could someone please explain this whole MacD stuff for us newbies? Thanks.

[windjc]

Sometimes I think that the sentiment this thread rules the market.

Lack of fresh fiat rules the market. Maybe if we continue down slowly for the next 3 weeks, perma bulls will finally admit this.

Maybe sometime after that we can get a real final capitulation.

[bigdave]

Surely if we continue dropping we will hit a point where all the bulls will start mass buying and hopefully drive the price back up.

[adamstgBit]

Sometimes I think that the sentiment this thread rules the market.

Lack of fresh fiat rules the market. Maybe if we continue down slowly for the next 3 weeks, perma bulls will finally admit this.

Maybe sometime after that we can get a real final capitulation.

all this gr8 stuff is happening surrounding bitcoin, time to capitulate!

no.

[adamstgBit]

stand up and take back the power!

BUY BUY BUY!!

[Hpotsirc]

Looks like that 12h MacD does not fuck around, i wonder if 450 will hold

Could someone please explain this whole MacD stuff for us newbies? Thanks.

MACD is one of the most commonly known indicators. You can find a lot about it searching the web.
You can enable it on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd under settings. The basic logic behind this is the following: MACD crosses up (turns from red to green) -> buy, MACD crosses down (turns from green to red) -> sell. This doesn't work very well on lower timeframes but can work on higher timeframes even though there are a lot of better indicators than that one. Anyway its still always useful to have an eye on it since quite a lot of people trade using it.

[oda.krell]

[...]

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction"  I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist.

It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight.

Actually, I'm not saying we're going down for sure. Imagine the following 4 near term (> 1 day, < 1 month) scenarios, and how likely you think they are: sudden & sharp move up, sudden & sharp move down, slow grind down, slow grind up.

Personally I consider the sudden move down more likely than the sudden move up (because right now it looks like 500 is more resistance than support, so if at all, whales will get nervous holding rather than missing the train).

But more likely than any sudden and big move is, imo, a slower move in either direction. I guess we both agree on that (since you mention "slow and painful"). My point is, I can see a continued slow grind down, (and consider it slightly more likely right now), but I am well prepared to admit a slow grind up if we finally find some buying support.