Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

here's a question for you guys.

if china had never even let those exchanges start up in the first place, would the price be higher today? or lower?

its hard to say.

that in of it itself says something 

[JayJuanGee]

risto are you the one buying?

I suspect he is NOT buying at any point above $370 - just speculation on my part. 

But Risto is NOT going to disclose, exactly what is his buy point... which is fine.  NO problem with that.

[JorgeStolfi]

What date is this deadline? Need to make sure to pop it in my calendar. Might as well set it as a reoccurring entry these days!

There seems to be a May 10th deadline, not sure for what exactly:

某大型商业银行人士也向记者证实了央行的上述要求，并指出，在派员参加约谈之前，该行已经进行了全面排查，确认自身没有违规问题，但从约谈后央行提 供的帐户信息看，该银行有多个地区的分行违规开立了帐户。“违规的情况令人震惊，央行掌握的帐户信息比我们自己还清楚，央行的决心也比我们预想的要大得 多。”该人士表示。

Central bank asked all commercial banks and third-party payment agencies before May 10 , " Beijing Bitcoin International Summit" held to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction attitudes guide people away from Bitcoin transactions.

[ShroomsKit]

here's a question for you guys.

if china had never even let those exchanges start up in the first place, would the price be higher today? or lower?

What makes you think anybody here can answer that. Take a guess. It's the only thing you can do.

[JayJuanGee]

No this is actually NEW China news this time:  They want to take down recharge codes and other deposit options, and before it was just bank transfers. For the first time, the situation is actually significantly worse now than it was in was in December. For a while we thought that Chinese exchanges would be able to continue doing volume by using alternative payment methods but now it is turning into a complete cut-off. I bet btcchina's ATMs will be taken down.

Your rendition of what is going on in China does NOT make very much sense- especially considering the extent to which bitcoin mining businesses are operating out of china, as well. 

China is going to be o.k. with the various bitcoin mining operations - whther related to the manufacturing of equipment and the actual mining itself?    Just seems contradictory and illogical.

Also, isn't there a little irony in the supposed May 10 date, which happens to coincide with the Global Bitcoin summit in Shanghai.... All seems kind of weird.

[windjc]

The terrifying thing right now is that the only reason Houbi isn't dumping is there is no bid depth. There is NOTHING to sell into. 

[TERA]

No this is actually NEW China news this time:  They want to take down recharge codes and other deposit options, and before it was just bank transfers. For the first time, the situation is actually significantly worse now than it was in was in December. For a while we thought that Chinese exchanges would be able to continue doing volume by using alternative payment methods but now it is turning into a complete cut-off. I bet btcchina's ATMs will be taken down.

Your rendition of what is going on in China does NOT make very much sense- especially considering the extent to which bitcoin mining businesses are operating out of china, as well.  

China is going to be o.k. with the various bitcoin mining operations - whther related to the manufacturing of equipment and the actual mining itself?    Just seems contradictory and illogical.

Also, isn't there a little irony in the supposed May 10 date, which happens to coincide with the Global Bitcoin summit in Shanghai.... All seems kind of weird.

Not sure how this is relevant. Yeah PBOC might not care about the mining operations.  If you look at the news story, most of what the central banker expresses concerns about is the rampant market manipulation on chinese exchanges.  He states how China's entry into bitcoin was inorganic and had nothing to do with bitcoin adoption or development. He describes how Chinese bitcoin trading is a battle between "makers" and is a "bloodbath" for the normal investor which gets destroyed as collateral damage. I have to agree with him there and appreciate what he is doing. So their main focus is to take down any kind of exchanges which do significant volume, to protect every day investors.  If bitcoin was truly adopted then it wouldn't need these types of exchanges - it's all a game.

[wachtwoord]

The terrifying thing right now is that the only reason Houbi isn't dumping is there is no bid depth. There is NOTHING to sell into. 

Why is that terrifying? Do you have BTC stuck at Houbi you need to sell?

[billyjoeallen]

The only people buying now are people who sold higher. Look at the volume. Volume tells the story. We are very likely just at a consolidation stage on a trip back down. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the is/ought divide. China matters until it doesn't. Just because prices are stupid low doesn't mean they can't get stupider lower. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent if you don't manage your capital wisely.

There are silver linings. The good news is that the FBI will probably not get much for their coins. When the Chinese people will discover in a year or two from now how badly the PBoC and their government screwed them out of a leadership roll in crypto, it  may do more to foment revolution than Tienanmen Square.


Be smart. Be patient, and be in a position to scoop up bargains should they materialize.

[JayJuanGee]

No this is actually NEW China news this time:  They want to take down recharge codes and other deposit options, and before it was just bank transfers. For the first time, the situation is actually significantly worse now than it was in was in December. For a while we thought that Chinese exchanges would be able to continue doing volume by using alternative payment methods but now it is turning into a complete cut-off. I bet btcchina's ATMs will be taken down.

Your rendition of what is going on in China does NOT make very much sense- especially considering the extent to which bitcoin mining businesses are operating out of china, as well.  

China is going to be o.k. with the various bitcoin mining operations - whther related to the manufacturing of equipment and the actual mining itself?    Just seems contradictory and illogical.

Also, isn't there a little irony in the supposed May 10 date, which happens to coincide with the Global Bitcoin summit in Shanghai.... All seems kind of weird.

Not sure how this is relevant. Yeah PBOC might not care about the mining operations.  If you look at the news story, most of what the central banker expresses concerns about is the rampant market manipulation on chinese exchanges.  He states how China's entry into bitcoin was inorganic and had nothing to do with bitcoin adoption or development. He describes how Chinese bitcoin trading is a battle between "makers" and is a "bloodbath" for the normal investor which gets destroyed as collateral damage. I have to agree with him there and appreciate what he is doing. So their main focus is to take down any kind of exchanges which do significant volume, to protect every day investors.  If bitcoin was truly adopted then it wouldn't need these types of exchanges - it's all a game.

There seems to be a bit of a contradiction, but we will see how it plays out, and surely, I am NOT completely surprised by contradiction(s) that may exist.

[wachtwoord]

The only people buying now are people who sold higher. Look at the volume. Volume tells the story. We are very likely just at a consolidation stage on a trip back down. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the is/ought divide. China matters until it doesn't. Just because prices are stupid low doesn't mean they can't get stupider lower. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent if you don't manage your capital wisely.

There are silver linings. The good news is that the FBI will probably not get much for their coins. When the Chinese people will discover in a year or two from now how badly the PBoC and their government screwed them out of a leadership roll in crypto, it  may do more to foment revolution than Tienanmen Square.


Be smart. Be patient, and be in a position to scoop up bargains should they materialize.

You are basically advocating the following:

* Some guy on the street is selling a $100 note (guaranteed to be non-counterfeit) for $10
* You tell your friend who wants to buy: No don't buy it. He might sell it for $5 if we wait a little bit!

And then if the friend buys it anyway and the man is indeed selling the $100 bill for $5 the next day you mock him.

It's not really relevant price can go lower (unless you use margin)

[hyphymikey]

Where did all the Bitfinex bids/asks go? Did they make it to where you can't place bids or asks without having the Fiat/BTC? 3K until $1000 and 8K in bids back to $50.

EDIT: Wait, the walls come and go, must be a problem with the Bitstamp integration.

[chriswilmer]

The only people buying now are people who sold higher. Look at the volume. Volume tells the story. We are very likely just at a consolidation stage on a trip back down. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the is/ought divide. China matters until it doesn't. Just because prices are stupid low doesn't mean they can't get stupider lower. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent if you don't manage your capital wisely.

There are silver linings. The good news is that the FBI will probably not get much for their coins. When the Chinese people will discover in a year or two from now how badly the PBoC and their government screwed them out of a leadership roll in crypto, it  may do more to foment revolution than Tienanmen Square.


Be smart. Be patient, and be in a position to scoop up bargains should they materialize.

You are basically advocating the following:

* Some guy on the street is selling a $100 note (guaranteed to be non-counterfeit) for $10
* You tell your friend who wants to buy: No don't buy it. He might sell it for $5 if we wait a little bit!

And then if the friend buys it anyway and the man is indeed selling the $100 bill for $5 the next day you mock him.

It's not really relevant price can go lower (unless you use margin)

Interesting point!

[shmadz]

The only people buying now are people who sold higher. Look at the volume. Volume tells the story. We are very likely just at a consolidation stage on a trip back down. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the is/ought divide. China matters until it doesn't. Just because prices are stupid low doesn't mean they can't get stupider lower. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent if you don't manage your capital wisely.

There are silver linings. The good news is that the FBI will probably not get much for their coins. When the Chinese people will discover in a year or two from now how badly the PBoC and their government screwed them out of a leadership roll in crypto, it  may do more to foment revolution than Tienanmen Square.


Be smart. Be patient, and be in a position to scoop up bargains should they materialize.

You are basically advocating the following:

* Some guy on the street is selling a $100 note (guaranteed to be non-counterfeit) for $10
* You tell your friend who wants to buy: No don't buy it. He might sell it for $5 if we wait a little bit!

And then if the friend buys it anyway and the man is indeed selling the $100 bill for $5 the next day you mock him.

It's not really relevant price can go lower (unless you use margin)

Interesting point!

I don't know about that, price is still relevant. he coulda bought twice as much if he had waited a day like his friend said.

The price might have gone the other way and if he waited he could have only bought half as much...

I think the price is always somewhat relevant.

[windjc]

There are no bids on Houbi ladies and gentleman.

This is a problem.

It looking more and more like a major decoupling of exchanges is coming soon ala Gox redux.

[billyjoeallen]

The only people buying now are people who sold higher. Look at the volume. Volume tells the story. We are very likely just at a consolidation stage on a trip back down. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the is/ought divide. China matters until it doesn't. Just because prices are stupid low doesn't mean they can't get stupider lower. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent if you don't manage your capital wisely.

There are silver linings. The good news is that the FBI will probably not get much for their coins. When the Chinese people will discover in a year or two from now how badly the PBoC and their government screwed them out of a leadership roll in crypto, it  may do more to foment revolution than Tienanmen Square.


Be smart. Be patient, and be in a position to scoop up bargains should they materialize.

You are basically advocating the following:

* Some guy on the street is selling a $100 note (guaranteed to be non-counterfeit) for $10
* You tell your friend who wants to buy: No don't buy it. He might sell it for $5 if we wait a little bit!

And then if the friend buys it anyway and the man is indeed selling the $100 bill for $5 the next day you mock him.

It's not really relevant price can go lower unless you use margin

or unless it's money you are going to need for other purposes before the market recovers. It is unknown how long it will take before the market recovers. A prudent investor or speculator will price in risk. I am a Bitcoin true believer, but what Bitcoin needs most now are smart day traders to reduce volatility, and absorb/provide liquidity to make our crypto more useful for something other than speculation. The market incentives are there. We just need to be smart enough to take advantage of them.

If you can afford to hold for a prolonged period of time, buy now. Buy your ass off. If you cannot afford to hold for a prolonged period of time, wait until the price is lower. Missing the train is not the end of the world. There's always another train.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

are we gonna get another drop? 2 nights in a row!?

sweeeeeet. 

[TeeBone]

We need some trainwreck pics. 

[Tyson95]

How low do you guys think stamp would follow Huobi? I would speculate after about 350 people might stop.