Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[nioc]

We're still pretty early into the adoption (and usage), and it's too early to say with certainty if we can use that data unfiltered to estimate the user base (I know, I know, "popular addresses excluded").

It doesn't actually matter.  

What my model does is defines two abstract unmeasurable quantities called the "generalized user base," N and the "value of bitcoin", V.  I then define that these two variables satisfy the Metcalfe Model, V ~ N².

Everything is exact so far and I haven't made any assumptions.  Then I ask: "is this model useful?"  

To answer this question, I look for observable proxies for both N and V that are measurable.   Reasonable proxies for N include "unique address used per day" and "transactions per day excluding popular addresses," but one could also consider subscribers at r/bitcoin or users at bitcointalk.com.  In fact the more proxies for N that show self-consistency, the stronger my model becomes.  A reasonable proxy for V is the market cap of bitcoin.  

It has already been shown the the model is useful, and that it is in fact reasonable to infer that bitcoin's value grows as the square of its generalized user base.  Realizing that I am using the terms "bitcoins value" and "generalized user base" in a technical way, the task moving forward in time is to find ways to estimate N that simultaneously support the Metcalfe model without stretching the common-sense meanings of the words "value" or "user base."  If we have to stretch common-sense too far, then the model will no longer be useful.  


This is how we make progress in theoretical physics.  A good example is Newton's Second Law: f = m a.  A lot people think that this is some discovery about a "fundamental law of the universe," but it is actually just a definition.  The net force acting on an object is defined by humans to be equal to the product of the object's mass and acceleration.  You could equally create another "law" that says f2 = m v, where v is velocity and f2 is "force 2.0."  Both are correct by definition, but only one is useful.  If you calculate the "force 2.0" of gravity, you'll get a complex mess; whereas the "force" of gravity is an elegant equation.

Does the "we" mean you are a theoretical physicist?  BTC and B-mode

[JorgeStolfi]

From OKCoin, via http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/243j3p/how_are_huobi_okcoin_deposit_funding_currently/

As not to affect the normal market prices, for the time being, revisions to our site’s recharging methods will not be published again.

And  Huobi apparently has been offline since 01:00 am local time, now it is Monday 07:00 am.

EDIT: some claim that Huobi's catatonia it is a Bitcoinwisdom bug.

[JayJuanGee]

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea?  What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?

breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position

 http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_22rulestrading.htm

The 22 Rules of Trading

We give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.......................................

.............

I have NO problem with those 22 rules - though I would call them tips or best practices (as is implied from "rule 22").  Accordingly, thank you for sharing them.  NONETHELESS, you have NO CLUE about whether or the extent to which they may apply to my particular situation.  You can sit atop your perch and Monday morning quarter-back all that you like... but that does NOT really enlighten anyone in any kind of meaningful way   - even though I repeat that I do appreciate that you provided the general parameters from which you were speaking and that is the "Dennis Gartman" guidelines.

[JayJuanGee]

Man $435 is not looking good...

Wow.. the price has NOT quite hit $435, yet. 

Maybe I am going to jinx the situation; however, the closest that it has come so far (on stamp) is $438.88... and that was a flash.  Though I think $439 was sustained over several spread out minutes.

[y3804]

From OKCoin, via http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/243j3p/how_are_huobi_okcoin_deposit_funding_currently/

As not to affect the normal market prices, for the time being, revisions to our site’s recharging methods will not be published again.

And  Huobi apparently has been offline since 01:00 am local time, now it is Monday 07:00 am.

EDIT: some claim that Huobi's catatonia it is a Bitcoinwisdom bug.

OKCoin, BTCChina, CHBTC, all fiat deposits halted. Who knows if the withdrawal part is true, but no capital input is definitely bad

[y3804]

Looks like you'd have lost your bet

[podyx]

Looks like you'd have lost your bet

How the fuck he lost the bet?

[silverfuture]

close but 435.00 has not been crossed yet.

[y3804]

Looks like you'd have lost your bet

How the fuck he lost the bet?

$435.55 on Bitfinex. Wait another hour

Edit: It just crossed $435. Bet lost

[podyx]

Looks like you'd have lost your bet

How the fuck he lost the bet?

$435.55 on Bitfinex. Wait another hour

Edit: It just crossed $435. Bet lost

Educate yourself kid... You're not that bright

[y3804]

Looks like you'd have lost your bet

How the fuck he lost the bet?

$435.55 on Bitfinex. Wait another hour

Edit: It just crossed $435. Bet lost

Educate yourself kid... You're not that bright

?

It's 431 on stamp, 428 on finex. tell me what i dont understand

[derpinheimer]

Looks like you'd have lost your bet

How the fuck he lost the bet?

$435.55 on Bitfinex. Wait another hour

Edit: It just crossed $435. Bet lost

Educate yourself kid... You're not that bright

?

Seconded.

What are you talking about?

Weird though, China hasnt moved yet.

[silverfuture]

Ok there we go  

[billyjoeallen]

Dat wall at 435 has scared everybody for like 3 hours already 

A movie can scare people for three hours. Three hours is nothing. It's a speed bump on the road to $400.  What is not scaring anybody now is fear of missing the train. That's what you should be concerned about.

[podyx]

?

It's still 28 days left
If you're so lit up on risto that you quote him, I would assume you would read the bet conditions

on another note: pulled my $425 order

Not sure where this is going to be honest
still sub 400 would surprise me

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TeeBone]

Good stuff windjc, you wouldve won.

And good call on knowing that he was bluffing, and is just a desperate bull tryin' a last pitch sale to save the current inflated price.

[y3804]

?

It's still 28 days left
If you're so lit up on risto that you quote him, I would assume you would read the bet conditions

on another note: pulled my $425 order

Not sure where this is going to be honest

Insider trading. It's weird, sunday should be up. someone is dumping his coins on stamp

Still no explanation for the drop to 2647 on Huobi.

Edit: 2639!

Edit 2: 2630!

We'll definitely hear bad, bad news tomorrow. This is not going to end well...

[JorgeStolfi]

It's 08:00 am in China.  OKCoin broke through the 2650 barrier, now pounding at 2630.