Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[freebit13]

What kind of poll is this? Any answer can fit to me. Precious metals doesn't have value for me. I only invest in Bitcoin and Litecoin. They are like gold-silver to me.

Rpietila said 403$ could be seen. I hope it will turn back up from that point at least.

+1 ...where's the option for those who buy bitcoin instead of gold & silver?

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[roslinpl]

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

[flynn]

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

Yep. I am a long-term hodler.

[lemonte]

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

10th actually. So a week on Saturday. Then we have to wait another week for PBOC to say they still aren't happy.

[threecats]

Huobi has shown it can sleepwalk upwards for hours. Plus those pumpers are out there somewhere. Dangerous place to short imo.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit]

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

10th actually. So a week on Saturday. Then we have to wait another week for PBOC to say they still aren't happy.

It will be the same shit as what happened many times already.

[JayJuanGee]

I really hope @mmitech won't have to apologize for the second time with @rpietila, that will be just hilarious. 

hell no, fuck him...

Did you have to apologize to Rpietila, previously?

Actually, certainly, I am NOT of the belief that Rpietila is a dumb guy who thinks he is smart... but sometimes, he does seem to let his ego get in the way of his interactions, and he seems to believe that his recently found wealth gives him license to be pompous and pretentious and manipulative.

I have no problem with any body making predictions, and I appreciate some of Rpietila's predictive constructs.  However, frequently the certainties and absolutism of math is NOT going to work very well when dealing with politics and human behavior.  I believe he recognizes this; however, seems to get caught up in his own predictive marketing-type delusion(s).. and then tries to get his way when interacting with people (and the bet discussion exemplifies this wanting to get his way then attempting to reframe history in such a way that rationalizes what had happened)... which in sum seems to be Rpietila's failure/refusal to interact reasonably.. as Windjc mentioned.

[rpietila]

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Which part of the Call to Bet was difficult to understand?  

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Perhaps you fit in the description in my Lamentation...  

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it.

Have you noticed that not a single person with high standing has criticized me? It is the same trolls over and over, twisting simple and clear words, or teens with fingers hard-wired to bypass the brain.

[MoreFun]

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

10th actually. So a week on Saturday. Then we have to wait another week for PBOC to say they still aren't happy.

It will be the same shit as what happened many times already.

But the dumps and falls are smaller and smaller every time. Also there is also less and less weak hands. With "article-rumours" probably there won't be large decrease in price at once, only big confirmed china ban news can bring us much down as flash crash.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Did you have to apologize to Rpietila, previously?

Actually, certainly, I am NOT of the belief that Rpietila is a dumb guy who thinks he is smart... but sometimes, he does seem to let his ego get in the way of his interactions, and he seems to believe that his recently found wealth gives him license to be pompous and pretentious and manipulative.

I have no problem with any body making predictions, and I appreciate some of Rpietila's predictive constructs.  However, frequently the certainties and absolutism of math is NOT going to work very well when dealing with politics and human behavior.  I believe he recognizes this; however, seems to get caught up in his own predictive marketing-type delusion(s).. and then tries to get his way when interacting with people (and the bet discussion exemplifies this wanting to get his way then attempting to reframe history in such a way that rationalizes what had happened)... which in sum seems to be Rpietila's failure/refusal to interact reasonably.. as Windjc mentioned.

I think that rpietila is dumb, at least in the general sense. Most of the people here think that he is smart, because he likes to do meaningless lists and likes to add loads of insignificant numbers to his post. To the inexperienced people, it looks like he is doing serious financial analysis. If you know even a little about finance, then you can see that it's entertaining gibberish at best. Or if you'll look at the outcomes of his predictions, or just his business practices, then you can also see how dumb he actually is.
Anyway, my point is, that you shouldn't feel bad for calling him dumb, because he is dumb. I personally also have doubts that he has a serious drug problem, because making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

[chessnut]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

[MoreFun]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

There is a lot of newcomers that are bears, jealous and angry about anyone being optimistic and those holding nice amount of BTC. This is not good. Not sure if it is not good for them or also for community.

[JayJuanGee]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

This is a great way of expressing the situation.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Which part of the Call to Bet was difficult to understand? 

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Perhaps you fit in the description in my Lamentation... 

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it.

Have you noticed that not a single person with high standing has criticized me? It is the same trolls over and over, twisting simple and clear words, or teens with fingers hard-wired to bypass the brain.

There you go with more of your ad hominem attacks and denials.  I certainly am NO troll, and I think that your criticism is misplaced with me and with almost all of the others regarding this point.

Likely, you need to take responsibility for your ambiguous words, your lack of clarity in bet terms and your failure to work with anyone to finalize a meaningful and reasonable bet... which probably shows that you just were NOT committed to your assertion... and you misspoke and internally contradicted yourself, then your pride got in the way so that you would NOT back out.

[chessnut]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

yeah well what did I just say? your argument is a strawman. you dont like Risto, ok, but keep the argument valid or you look dumb.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

yeah well what did I just say? your argument is a strawman. you dont like Risto, ok, but keep the argument valid or you look dumb.

No, the argument wasn't invalid. If you are even a little more then stupid, then you won't make predictions that aren't predictable. That will lose you any credibility that you might have. It's like the weather service would make a certain prediction, that at 12:36AM on 23.08.2019, it will start to rain in NYC. Predictions like that will make you look like a joke to those who know better, only to the dim-witted ones it may look like something wonderful.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

Yeah, not like it would have been smart to use this money to invest in the crypto infrastructure (if you really believe that bitcoin will be the world currency). Like create and develop your own exchange, or maybe an payment service.
It's always smart to go into accommodation in Estonia. Especially when you have no experience or skills in the field. Very smart business decision, and not at all a typical "Hurray! Look! I have money!" project.

[p0peji]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

Yeah, not like it would have been smart to use this money to invest in the crypto infrastructure (if you really believe that bitcoin will be the world currency). Like create and develop your own exchange, or maybe an payment service.
It's always smart to go into accommodation in Estonia. Especially when you have no experience or skills in the field. Very smart business decision, and not at all a typical "Hurray! Look! I have money!" project.

Indeed, buying a castle is the best way to lose the money you just earned.