Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[roslinpl]

I never saw this thread so quiet...

Anyway... my predictions about +$4 were not right ...
more likely -$4 and then -$7...

Maybe I should just go to sleep Sunday morning will bring some ++ ... perhaps not.
Monday. Yes - this is a day that we are all waiting for

[keithers]

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

Watching your hair grow.

[aminorex]

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

Watching your hair grow.

Changing the oil on the lawn mower.  Which I will now do.  But my cell will alarm me if there's interesting action.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 27

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2876 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 471 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was even weaker than yesterday's (S = 0.0076 W = 0.311), but we must use it anyway to define the new straight-line trend.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2814 and B = +31.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.11 CNY/USD. It was 6.09 today and 6.05 yesterday; althhough those points had low weight, it seems best to use a value near them rather than the values observed before the crash (6.30, 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-26, 04:04 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

The Huobi's "same as yesterday" prediction was rather good:

Huobi's predicted price: 2814 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2845 CNY
Error: 31 CNY (~5 USD)

The Bitstamp prediction was way too low:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 447 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 467 USD
Error: 20 USD

That last prediction used the pre-crash value of R (6.29) instead of the post-crash one (6.05) to transfer from Huobi to Bitstamp.  Had we used R = 6.05, or the "same as yesterday" estimate for Bitstamp too, the prediction would have been 465 USD, only 2 USD off.
 
NOTE: "Be not simply good; be good for something." -- Thoreau

[JayJuanGee]

$50k or 100 BTC isnt that meaningful when you have 20,000 BTC my friend. Its like 0.5% of your stash, I bet you would take a bet you thought you would win for .25BTC on a 50BTC stash.

My point is still valid, and I could give a shit whether a guy has $10 million in liquid assets or $10,000 in liquid assets.

The point of the bet seems to be to put some money where your mouth is, and you do NOT need to prove yourself with a $50K bet, especially when it seems that the $50k aspect of the bet may be getting in the way of making the bet.  $5k remains a meaningful amount b/c it is meaningful to others, and some people could live for a year off of $5k.

Let's take the guy with $10,000 in liquid assets, he could still prove his point by betting $5 (0.05%) rather than by betting $50 (0.5%).  And, don't tell me that the guys with $10 million are treating $50K the same as a guy with $10k is treating $50.  That may be the same percentage (0.5%), but even well to do people are going to begin to put up some barriers when they are throwing around $50k here and there for quasi-random bets on an internet forum.

Part of my point is that the proposed $50k amount of the bet may be getting in the way of finalizing the terms of the bet, and that $50k amount really is NOT necessary, unless the guys are merely wanting to impress people with pompous big balls numbers, that distract from the main point.... which is to put "some" money where you mouth is... with clear terms that everyone can understand.

[akujin]

Explanation

It is rising! I can see it with my magnifying glass!!

In next hour I predict +$4

\
fail 

[y3804]

Explanation

It is rising! I can see it with my magnifying glass!!

In next hour I predict +$4

\
fail 

And... You're off by 12USD

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dabs]

I'll go make a contract tomorrow while you guys figure out your terms and agree on something. Or not. This looks like an honor bet.

[wachtwoord]

 And, don't tell me that the guys with $10 million are treating $50K the same as a guy with $10k is treating $50. 

Of course he doesn't. If he did, he would never had made $10M in the first place.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Post-Cosmic]

Could be foreigners removing bitcoin from exchanges because they do not have chinese bank accounts. Once this process is complete, buying pressure will rapidly decline and double single digit coins become a real possibility.

 What a joker, rofl. Single-digits haven't been anywhere remotely close to being a 'real possibility' since the day Obama was re-elected for a 2nd term in office.

 That being said, I'm looking forward to some major crashes between now & the new May 2nd & May 10th 'deadlines' from PBoC, 1 australian bank, 5 major chinese banks, and countless exchanges, newspapers/magazine shills & payment processors, that certainly, realistically may not even be able to pierce through $300 support or even through our good ol' $340 of last time, but that nonetheless -definitely- have to bring price below the current levels at least touching $400 in a cheerleader-skirt-flash.

 -THOSE- prices will be some great floors to buy at.. Certainly better than $445-500 (not that the latter are terrible, just not optimal given how badly chinese officials have revealed they have it & still have it against -all- crypto-related deposit/withdrawal loopholes whatever they may be, all accounts must be shut down, and quickly too.

 You can't get any clearer bearishness than that, even though admittedly, yes, that bearishness only goes so far, for there is indeed mad bull money hidden down there especially past $400 and even more in the late $200's/early $300's, yet that doesn't mean that smart money's gonna be desperate enough to buy in the mid $400's w/ that kind of chinese repressive climate.

[uhoh]

Could be foreigners removing bitcoin from exchanges because they do not have chinese bank accounts. Once this process is complete, buying pressure will rapidly decline and double single digit coins become a real possibility.

 What a joker, rofl. Single-digits haven't been anywhere remotely close to being a 'real possibility' since the day Obama was re-elected for a 2nd term in office.

 That being said, I'm looking forward to some major crashes between now & the new May 2nd & May 10th 'deadlines' from PBoC, 1 australian bank, 5 major chinese banks, and countless exchanges, newspapers/magazine shills & payment processors, that certainly, realistically may not even be able to pierce through $300 support or even through our good ol' $340 of last time, but that nonetheless -definitely- have to bring price below the current levels at least touching $400 in a cheerleader-skirt-flash.

 -THOSE- prices will be some great floors to buy at.. Certainly better than $445-500 (not that the latter are terrible, just not optimal given how badly chinese officials have revealed they have it & still have it against -all- crypto-related deposit/withdrawal loopholes whatever they may be, all accounts must be shut down, and quickly too.

 You can't get any clearer bearishness than that, even though admittedly, yes, that bearishness only goes so far, for there is indeed mad bull money hidden down there especially past $400 and even more in the late $200's/early $300's, yet that doesn't mean that smart money's gonna be desperate enough to buy in the mid $400's w/ that kind of chinese repressive climate.

Lol, don't mind Walsoraj. In the few short months he's been here, he's morphed into the person that he was originally a parody of.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dnaleor]

To all the bears out there:



I am buying, for the last time. After I am done buying, my "accumulation phase" has ended and I will try to get my SSS plan ready


edit:
this is a report of my previous image in which i projected the aftermath of the previous bubble to the current "post bubble phase"
(so the "we are here" is on the lowest point when we hit 340 USD. It is outdated)
Just to give you an image of how fast we can see the exchange rate go back to 600 USD, after that 900 USD and beyond

[windjc]

To all the bears out there:



I am buying, for the last time. After I am done buying, my "accumulation phase" has ended and I will try to get my SSS plan ready


edit:
this is a report of my previous image in which i projected the aftermath of the previous bubble to the current "post bubble phase"
(so the "we are here" is on the lowest point when we hit 340 USD. It is outdated)
Just to give you an image of how fast we can see the exchange rate go back to 600 USD, after that 900 USD and beyond

Really? So this whole entire China thing is over and behind us. No more bad news?

And fresh fiat is going to arrive on the exchanges this week for the first time in several months?

And you know all of this because you have a chart from 2013?

Ok. Sign me up. 

[adamstgBit]

To all the bears out there:



I am buying, for the last time. After I am done buying, my "accumulation phase" has ended and I will try to get my SSS plan ready


edit:
this is a report of my previous image in which i projected the aftermath of the previous bubble to the current "post bubble phase"
(so the "we are here" is on the lowest point when we hit 340 USD. It is outdated)
Just to give you an image of how fast we can see the exchange rate go back to 600 USD, after that 900 USD and beyond

Really? So this whole entire China thing is over and behind us. No more bad news?

And fresh fiat is going to arrive on the exchanges this week for the first time in several months?

And you know all of this because you have a chart from 2013?

Ok. Sign me up.  

no more bad news?

no theres always some bad news, but bitcoin either  deals with it quick or ignores it,because honey badger

fresh fiat?

duh!

you know all of this because?

because honey badger

and because bitcoin

we don't like to do to much explaining

  buy bitcoin   just sayin

[adamstgBit]

I love bitcoin sooooo much
 

[adamstgBit]

459.9

[wachtwoord]

459.9

Don't look so sour!