Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

I understand that withdrawing BTC from Huobi and such is still possible? If so, I do not believe we can have Gox-style decoupling - arbitrage, a.k.a. dumping Chinese coins on Bitsamp and such is still possible. It was complete inability to withdraw anything from Gox that coused its prices to decouple.

That is my understanding too.

Yes but arbing only works for so long when you cant get money back into a Chinese exchange.

Even if all "easy" deposit channels are cut off, I imagine that there will be ways to get money into the exchanges, e.g. taking cash to their offices.  Perhaps even after May 10.

Arbitrage seems to be a lucrative activity for those who have the skills and tools, so they have enough motivation and money to find a way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

If it gets hard to buy with CNY, I suspect a contraband premium will eventually apply.

[y3804]

I understand that withdrawing BTC from Huobi and such is still possible? If so, I do not believe we can have Gox-style decoupling - arbitrage, a.k.a. dumping Chinese coins on Bitsamp and such is still possible. It was complete inability to withdraw anything from Gox that coused its prices to decouple.

That is my understanding too.

Yes but arbing only works for so long when you cant get money back into a Chinese exchange.

Even if all "easy" deposit channels are cut off, I imagine that there will be ways to get money into the exchanges, e.g. taking cash to their offices.  Perhaps even after May 10.

Arbitrage seems to be a lucrative activity for those who have the skills and tools, so they have enough motivation and money to find a way.

Lol. Taking cash to their offices? That is worst case scenario for the Chinese exchanges.They certainly won't make manual trades on a large scale. The only way is to move offshore.

All of you guys expect Chinese exchanges to somehow find another workaround. PBOC will ban these workarounds every time. They want the exchanges to move out. They're not banning exchanges themselves, but all the ways to make an exchange profitable.

Now they're taking down China Merchants Bank, the only bank offering fiat deposit for BTCChina. Do you really think these guys want to handle cash deposits? lmao

Look at FXBTC. All they've said has been true up to now. They've now closed their exchange. suspended fiat deposit and withdrawals. they knew that the ban was real since the beginning. its only chinese exchanges who want to somehow play around the pboc guidelines. this wont last long, i promise

[JayJuanGee]

I understand that withdrawing BTC from Huobi and such is still possible? If so, I do not believe we can have Gox-style decoupling - arbitrage, a.k.a. dumping Chinese coins on Bitsamp and such is still possible. It was complete inability to withdraw anything from Gox that coused its prices to decouple.

That is my understanding too.

Yes but arbing only works for so long when you cant get money back into a Chinese exchange.

Even if all "easy" deposit channels are cut off, I imagine that there will be ways to get money into the exchanges, e.g. taking cash to their offices.  Perhaps even after May 10.

Arbitrage seems to be a lucrative activity for those who have the skills and tools, so they have enough motivation and money to find a way.

Why would this NOT create a private courier system?  would that work? Send the fiat to the courier, and the courier delivers the fiat to the exchange.  Does seem a bit inconvenient way to convert back and forth to/from Fiat and BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday April 26

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-04-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2814 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 447 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The fairly straight price trend that held for the last six Slumber Times was obviously broken.  Today's data point was rather weak (S = 0.0062 W = 0.469), but since it is the only point we have for the new trend (if any) we must use it as the basis of the trivial prediction, "tomorrow's price will be the same as today's".

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.29 CNY/USD. It was 6.05 today, but the low weight W makes this value suspicious.  It was 6.30, 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the previous five Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-04-24, 22:03 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-04-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3067 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2814 CNY
Error: 253 CNY (~40 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 488 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 465 USD
Error: 23 USD
 
NOTE: "Anything that calls itself 'science' probably isn't."  -- John Searle

[hyphymikey]

China will likely be the first test-bed for a widespread P2P cash-deposit for BTC exchange system. Built upon something like Dark Market or an extension to Mycelium local trader ... the demand is there now with the govt. knee-capping of the centralised exchange model.

With all the "tech geeks" involved in bitcoin and large profits to be made it seems like this would have happened already. I can't wait for the P2P and .bit exchanges to come online.

[JorgeStolfi]

Taking cash to their offices? That is worst case scenario for the Chinese exchanges.They certainly won't make manual trades on a large scale.

That will not save the exchanges, but it may allow arbitrage to continue until the exchanges close.

I imagine that there are only a handful of professional traders doing arbitrage between China and the West. If so, they should have lots of money and would not need to deposit money very often, so they won't mind the inconvenience as long as there is a way to do it.

Why would this NOT create a private courier system?  would that work? Send the fiat to the courier, and the courier delivers the fiat to the exchange.  Does seem a bit inconvenient way to convert back and forth to/from Fiat and BTC.

If the courier had a frequent schedule and served many clients, it would be essentially an unregistered money service.  I doubt that it would be tolerated, even if it were not serving a bitcoin exchange.

I suspect that the main worry of the government at this point is possible use of the CNY inut/output channels of bitcoin exchanges for money laudering, paying bribes, illegal trade, etc..  The money that they move is tiny by PBoC standards, but huge by police standards.

[Threebits]

How's the future for Chinese exchanges? Anyone could give a clue? I have some difficulty to imagine.

Moving offshore? It's hard for me to imagine how this can attract fresh Chinese mainland clients. Even for old clients, how this would proceed?

A P2P exchange system for bitcoin? What is it?  It's even harder to imagine. I have some difficulty understanding that p2p can expand to a large scale without a third party guarantee. Is it by nature, due to human trust, that a third party guarantee is necessary for p2p trades?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Threebits]

China will likely be the first test-bed for a widespread P2P cash-deposit for BTC exchange system. Built upon something like Dark Market or an extension to Mycelium local trader ... the demand is there now with the govt. knee-capping of the centralised exchange model.

How is it like? Mind giving more words?

[xulescu]

China will likely be the first test-bed for a widespread P2P cash-deposit for BTC exchange system. Built upon something like Dark Market or an extension to Mycelium local trader ... the demand is there now with the govt. knee-capping of the centralised exchange model.

How is it like? Mind giving more words?

Look up coinffeine for an example. There is no counterparty risk as far as i understand the system, but it is unclear to me how viable the fiat transfers are (you do many small chunks) due to fragmentation+fees and also might be inconvenient at times because the buyer needs to post btc collateral.

[JorgeStolfi]

Found this in OKCoin's blog:

https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008522.html

5#发表于:2014-04-25 13:37:27 - IP:210.73.*.*

请大家注意一个事实：
财新网的消息是11:54发表的。
大盘是11:05开始下跌的。
没有内幕的话，什么人提前50分钟就先知先觉？
[ ... ]

[ GT ] Please note a fact:
11:54 Caixin news is published.
The market began to decline is 11:05.
No insider, then 50 minutes in advance on what people foresight?
[ ... ]

[xulescu]

aminorex, what's your opinion about Epsilon Theory? I'm asking because you mentioned De Mesquita earlier.

High ambitions, relatively low content.  The blogger's approach as stated is likely a fruitful one.  I haven't found his analysis up to the task he set for himself.  He does however do me one great favor:  He digests a lot of domain knowledge, and thus gives me leads to research.  I definitely need deeper and broader understanding of game theoretical factors, as these are low-hanging fruit for my modeling work.  I am quite new to the subject.  de Mesquita's approach appears fruitful, but costly to implement.  I'm hoping to start with lower-hanging stuff.  Although, I do have almost unlimited textual data, and it might be automated, to extract the structure and parameters required for de Mesquita's approach...I'm just not sure I can afford to build the pieces of that software stack which I am missing.  Software takes so freaking long around here.

I agree with your words on Epsilon. He either has the system but keeps it private (makes sense) or is just good ideas in good PR prose (more likely IMO).

I'm new to this too. I found good information in the BTCe trollbox and "diffusion Fourier" convolutions for the price in minutes range, but they are all weak learners and need way more independence than i have now to be able to boost them.

I am looking for a way to implement time dilation/contraction depending on volume based on a wild shot but did not find meaningful patterns yet and autoregressors do not work at all (somewhat surprising based on my understanding there should be at least some residual effect; i can see it with my eyes but maybe it's an illusion and i'm barking at the wrong tree).

But hey, i shorted carefully at 1060 because the "china ban" seemed to shockwave in the microstructure and the primitive system seemed to get that one right. Daytrading is still impossible though. I need to look into scale-invariant invariants.

[JorgeStolfi]

How's the future for Chinese exchanges? Anyone could give a clue? I have some difficulty to imagine.
Moving offshore? It's hard for me to imagine how this can attract fresh Chinese mainland clients. Even for old clients, how this would proceed?

The Chinese are asking too, it seems.  from OKCoin's blog: https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008520.html

1 # Posted :2014-04-25 11:45:49 - IP:. 122.90 * *.

如果财新网的新闻是真的，OK怎么应对呀，有预案么，除了国际版，国际版不现实，充值提现成本非常高，

If Caixin news is true , OK how to deal Yeah, there are plans for it , in addition to the international version , international version unrealistic, recharge to cash costs are very high ,

 So smooth
2 # Posted at :2014-04-25 12:21:38 - IP:. 114.249 * *.

您好，OKCoin目前还没有接到银行的相关通知，如果监管部门要求清算OKCoin会留出足够的时间给大家提现的，请大家放心，OKCoin一分钱都不会少的。目前OK的充值提现一切正常，感谢您对OK的支持！

Hello , OKCoin has not yet received the relevant notification bank liquidation OKCoin if the regulatory requirements will leave enough time for everyone to cash in , please rest assured , OKCoin penny not less . OK recharge current withdrawals everything works OK, thank you for your support !

 OKCoin_ Muzi

[Threebits]

China will likely be the first test-bed for a widespread P2P cash-deposit for BTC exchange system. Built upon something like Dark Market or an extension to Mycelium local trader ... the demand is there now with the govt. knee-capping of the centralised exchange model.

How is it like? Mind giving more words?

Look up coinffeine for an example. There is no counterparty risk as far as i understand the system, but it is unclear to me how viable the fiat transfers are (you do many small chunks) due to fragmentation+fees and also might be inconvenient at times because the buyer needs to post btc collateral.

Thanks. Difficult, need to digest.

[xulescu]

China will likely be the first test-bed for a widespread P2P cash-deposit for BTC exchange system. Built upon something like Dark Market or an extension to Mycelium local trader ... the demand is there now with the govt. knee-capping of the centralised exchange model.

How is it like? Mind giving more words?

Look up coinffeine for an example. There is no counterparty risk as far as i understand the system, but it is unclear to me how viable the fiat transfers are (you do many small chunks) due to fragmentation+fees and also might be inconvenient at times because the buyer needs to post btc collateral.

Thanks. Difficult, need to digest.

I think digesting is the best use of our time. Bitcoin is definitely not easy, and this is from a CS theory/game theory background.

[Threebits]

How's the future for Chinese exchanges? Anyone could give a clue? I have some difficulty to imagine.
Moving offshore? It's hard for me to imagine how this can attract fresh Chinese mainland clients. Even for old clients, how this would proceed?

The Chinese are asking too, it seems.  from OKCoin's blog: https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008520.html

1 # Posted :2014-04-25 11:45:49 - IP:. 122.90 * *.

如果财新网的新闻是真的，OK怎么应对呀，有预案么，除了国际版，国际版不现实，充值提现成本非常高，

If Caixin news is true , OK how to deal Yeah, there are plans for it , in addition to the international version , international version unrealistic, recharge to cash costs are very high ,

 So smooth
2 # Posted at :2014-04-25 12:21:38 - IP:. 114.249 * *.

您好，OKCoin目前还没有接到银行的相关通知，如果监管部门要求清算OKCoin会留出足够的时间给大家提现的，请大家放心，OKCoin一分钱都不会少的。目前OK的充值提现一切正常，感谢您对OK的支持！

Hello , OKCoin has not yet received the relevant notification bank liquidation OKCoin if the regulatory requirements will leave enough time for everyone to cash in , please rest assured , OKCoin penny not less . OK recharge current withdrawals everything works OK, thank you for your support !

 OKCoin_ Muzi

Indeed, remitting offshore is quite expensive, about 4-5% banking charges for both ends. Besides, one has to convert CNY to hard currency like usd first. There is a limit for the convert, usd50,000 per annum.

Moving offshore seems not a better choice than delivering cash to exchange counters. Or am I too narrow minded not realizing other advantages?

[windjc]

How's the future for Chinese exchanges? Anyone could give a clue? I have some difficulty to imagine.
Moving offshore? It's hard for me to imagine how this can attract fresh Chinese mainland clients. Even for old clients, how this would proceed?

The Chinese are asking too, it seems.  from OKCoin's blog: https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008520.html

1 # Posted :2014-04-25 11:45:49 - IP:. 122.90 * *.

如果财新网的新闻是真的，OK怎么应对呀，有预案么，除了国际版，国际版不现实，充值提现成本非常高，

If Caixin news is true , OK how to deal Yeah, there are plans for it , in addition to the international version , international version unrealistic, recharge to cash costs are very high ,

 So smooth
2 # Posted at :2014-04-25 12:21:38 - IP:. 114.249 * *.

您好，OKCoin目前还没有接到银行的相关通知，如果监管部门要求清算OKCoin会留出足够的时间给大家提现的，请大家放心，OKCoin一分钱都不会少的。目前OK的充值提现一切正常，感谢您对OK的支持！

Hello , OKCoin has not yet received the relevant notification bank liquidation OKCoin if the regulatory requirements will leave enough time for everyone to cash in , please rest assured , OKCoin penny not less . OK recharge current withdrawals everything works OK, thank you for your support !

 OKCoin_ Muzi

Indeed, remitting offshore is quite expensive, about 4-5% banking charges for both ends. Besides, one has to convert CNY to hard currency like usd first. There is a limit for the convert, usd50,000 per annum.

Moving offshore seems not a better choice than delivering cash to exchange counters. Or am I too narrow minded not realizing other advantages?

Wow. There was a part of me that felt like traders in China just didn't care about any news. Maybe because it was non-Chinese mainly trading there?  Well, when they are asking these questions and openly hoping against hope that there will be a solution and OKCoin is saying "not yet!" "not yet" - well, comeon - this has disaster written all over it.

Reminds me a little of the Gox denial, which I fell victim too myself.