Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

We still got 2 months of this if you ask me..

sounds about right

[birr]

This is fun.  We're like a group of dogs with a bone, but instead of snapping at each other we pass the bone around and just kind of growl in satisfaction because we're civilized dogs.

[molecular]

This is fun.  We're like a group of dogs with a bone, but instead of snapping at each other we pass the bone around and just kind of growl in satisfaction because we're civilized dogs.

lol

[Spaceman_Spiff]

That is one reason why I am skeptical of bitcoin: I have yet to see a "business plan", a consistent and fairly complete description of a future "bitcoin economy", with explicit numbers for volume of commercial use, fees, confirmation delays, deflation rate, wealth distribution, hoarding, banking, legal status, taxes, mining costs, etc.

Might as well ask for a unicorn while you are at it  .

Like, why would people use BTC for payments, if it is not inflationary -- why would they not hoard every BTC they get, and use some Garbagecoin or national currencies for payments?  But if they were to do that, why would bitcoin have any value at all?
The simplistic arguments of trillions divided by 21 million seem to fall apart once one tries to fill in the details...

Why would you hold Garbagecoin or fiat when it depreciates while you hold it.  Why not immediately exchange your Garbagecoin for BTC that holds its value (or appreciates), and then spend it when you want to spend money? 

[wachtwoord]

That is one reason why I am skeptical of bitcoin: I have yet to see a "business plan", a consistent and fairly complete description of a future "bitcoin economy", with explicit numbers for volume of commercial use, fees, confirmation delays, deflation rate, wealth distribution, hoarding, banking, legal status, taxes, mining costs, etc.

Might as well ask for a unicorn while you are at it  .

I want a rainbow castle in the sky! 

[JorgeStolfi]

Conversely, trying to "fundamentalize" the May 20 breakout seems silly to me. There was no strong fundamental reason in the vicinity of that date that is likely to have caused it. In fact, that you keep coming back to this date/price event shows how unsatisfactory any fundamental explanations of it so far have been.

The way to look at this one is technical, but since you believe technical explanations are circular or uninformative, they're not available to you, so I predict you will come continue searching for an explanation in the future as well

Indeed, I keep coming back to that breakout because it is pretty much the only major event since last October for which I do not know of a cause that would justify the traders's sudden change of mood. (There was one other surge this year, Mar/03 IIRC, I never found a convincing explanantion for.)

I could perhaps believe that technical analysis can predict gradual changes, or rallies and crashes that start out gradually and then accelerate (like the mini-crash earlier today, at 00:15 UTC).  ButI find it hard to believe  that thousands of traders across the globe would suddenly change their minds and start a rally like on May 20.  I know that there is strong feedback among traders, but it should take some time for them all to "syntonyze" on the new outlook.  I still think that an unknown external cause is more lilkely than a colective epiphany...

Moreover, between the buying spurts after May 20, there were usually periods of gradual downtrend, as if most traders were still "unconverted"  to the new price.  Only after June 4 or so there seems to be a "new consensus" arooun 650$ -- which collapsed  on Jun/10--12.

[greenlion]

That is one reason why I am skeptical of bitcoin: I have yet to see a "business plan", a consistent and fairly complete description of a future "bitcoin economy", with explicit numbers for volume of commercial use, fees, confirmation delays, deflation rate, wealth distribution, hoarding, banking, legal status, taxes, mining costs, etc.

Might as well ask for a unicorn while you are at it  .

I want a rainbow castle in the sky! 

Breaking news: Professor Trolololol is against everything that has to be figured out over time by various people independently of each other!

[JayJuanGee]

This is fun.  We're like a group of dogs with a bone, but instead of snapping at each other we pass the bone around and just kind of growl in satisfaction because we're civilized dogs.

Actually, surprisingly, for being a fairly unmodified thread, we are MOSTLY civilized in spite of a few outbursts here and there.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

The binary future meme needs to die.  There is only one future worth living in, and in that future bitcoin can only fail by being replaced by superior tech.  Tech which will be available first, at the lowest cost, to then current holders of bitcoin.
In any other future anyone worthy of the label ' human'  will die in the resistance.

"Aut bitcoin, aut nihil." And then people claim that bitcoin is not a religion... 

I have no doubt that payment systems will evolve.  I find it very likely that the current fees will drop dramatically, that something like the cyptocoin idea of offline key/address generation will replace centrally stored passwords, and so on. 

What I fid very unlikely is that the bitcoin protocol will become widely used before  better alternatives come along.  Even if the bitcoin protocol were to prevail, nothing ensures that it would preserve the current blockchain.  (If the rest of mankind will have a choice, they will not agree to that.) Miners will decide what they will do with their equipment, and I am not devious enough to guess what they could do to maximize their revenue.

Human beings, even very good human beings, can survive and be human under very nasty governments.  You should be prepared to do so, since you will have to live under one, sooner or later, no matter where you are.

People giving up on traditional politics and democracy, in the silly hope that a global totalitarian 'deus ex machina' will allow them to ignore governments and build a "free" society independent from them, will only make such nasty governments more likely to rise.   

[roslinpl]

That was a good hour for the Bitcoin!

+few$ is always something and better than minus.

I still see a chance to set the price @ >$600 till Monday =)

Volume will go up at any time from now. Just check exchange trade volume. In 10h it will go up >$4.5m.

[spooderman]

anyone remember mtgox?

[roslinpl]

anyone remember mtgox?

No - we are trying to forget =)

Why you're asking about? Sure we remember mtgox ...
any news about it connected to wall observing?

[JorgeStolfi]

Why would you hold Garbagecoin or fiat when it depreciates while you hold it.  Why not immediately exchange your Garbagecoin for BTC that holds its value (or appreciates), and then spend it when you want to spend money? 

People still use dollar bills all the time for their convenience, not bothered by the fact that dollar bills lose 1% (or whatever) per year of purchase power.   People who want to store value do not save dollar bills, they buy stocks, Treasury bonds, real estate, etc..  Why would it not be the same with Bitcoin vs. Garbagecoin?

Only problem is that stocks pay dividends, bonds pay uinterest, but bitcoin is worth anything only if people will want to buy it for use as currency...

That is what a "business plan"  would have to do: describe an economic scenario for bitcoin such that individuals (including ordinary consumers as well as miners, entrepreneurs, big investors, etc.), acting on their self-interest, would tend to maintain that scenario, or at least would not destroy it right away.

[aminorex]

 

So, you completely ignored my substantive point, blathered on about politics for a few inches, and stuck your tongue out at me.

I feel so devastatingly refuted.

[empowering]

This time last year….


Things were pretty boring around here:

What happened? Is nobody interested in Bitcoin anymore?
No postings here, no volume on the exchanges, WTF.

Adam was bullish:

if we don't break below 100 today, i'd say the mid term looks crazy bullish.
if we do break 100 today, mid term will still be bullish

Oda was skeptical:

In my mind, I read that in the enthusiastic voice of a shopping network presenter...

We go up? That's bullish! We go down? That's bullish too. We stay where we are? That's ULTRA-bullish!

Some people thought we needed a good drop in price to pick up buying interest:

I agree we needed a drop to get people to start buying again. But I don't think a $5 drop is anywhere near enough. Many people out there were expecting to see 50 on the last drop and we never made it there. Not saying we do this time, but with the dead volume before the drop, it looks like interest (outside of wales) at these levels is not that high.

Justus was correct about Gox (but we never checked the hash of his prediction):

I think that six month from now the top bitcoin-dollar exchange is going to be one that is not currently listed on bitcoinity.

Care to tell us which one?

No, but I'll give you a SHA256 hash you can quote for future reference:

Code:

b8b476ff6b82b9ed7f3d91a69df6cadc00ce800da0804c77dcba0f5564fc9ccd

Solex's prediction came true too:

Why not just change the title to "Wall Observer - BTC/USD wall movement tracker - Hardcore"

And Adam eventually got his $180:

Any time now....

180?

Nice post : )

[JorgeStolfi]

 

So, you completely ignored my substantive point, blathered on about politics for a few inches, and stuck your tongue out at me.
I feel so devastatingly refuted.

Sorry, was this the "substantive point"?

False dilemma much?  I buy as much as I can be 100% certain, barring catastrophe rendering financial reurn calculations moot, I will be able to hold long enough to realize a substantial ROI.

I read that as "who cares for the long-term future, I hope to make a good profit if I sell at the right time."  Apologies, if that is not what you meant.

As for politics, I was only responding to your statement about "people being worth the label human".  I did not stuck teh tongue at you, but at an ideology that I find quite sick.
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Indeed, I keep coming back to that breakout because it is pretty much the only major event since last October for which I do not know of a cause that would justify the traders's sudden change of mood. (There was one other surge this year, Mar/03 IIRC, I never found a convincing explanantion for.)

I could perhaps believe that technical analysis can predict gradual changes, or rallies and crashes that start out gradually and then accelerate (like the mini-crash earlier today, at 00:15 UTC).  ButI find it hard to believe  that thousands of traders across the globe would suddenly change their minds and start a rally like on May 20.  I know that there is strong feedback among traders, but it should take some time for them all to "syntonyze" on the new outlook.  I still think that an unknown external cause is more lilkely than a colective epiphany...

Moreover, between the buying spurts after May 20, there were usually periods of gradual downtrend, as if most traders were still "unconverted"  to the new price.  Only after June 4 or so there seems to be a "new consensus" arooun 650$ -- which collapsed  on Jun/10--12.

Who said anything about an "epiphany"? I take it you never traded yourself (not bitcoin, but any asset, I mean). There's only two things that really bother a trader: seeing the USD value of your account plummet (i.e. the danger of selling too late), and seeing your potential profits melt away (i.e. the danger of buying too late).

The first point is why we had quite a bit of USD sitting on the sidelines in April/May (people sold, and they did so for a good reason), the second point is why traders jumped on board without much hesitation once the train started moving. I see nothing abnormal about the May 20 to June 1 rise other than a momentum driven explosion of "hidden" buying power.

[keithers]

Volumes really evaporated into the weekend...