Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hdbuck]

Ok, I have a question for you all. I see many who firmly believe that btc will go very high in the future. Taking into consideration  current world events (economy, politics, the possibility of war, etc.) do you still believe in that future? How much of your beliefs is gut feeling vs a dispassionate analysis? Share your views.

just believe in (r)evolution

[adamstgBit]

Got your bids filled, Adam?  We backed the train up just so you could hop on.  It's not a fun trip without free beer the whole way.

soon sellers gana sell on virtex, i will get what i want.

keep it on the down low

finally got some bids filled.


we can now move up again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Sadly to some, it doesn't offer a choice where you can be well rewarded without doing hard work. Most can earn as much as they are willing to work for.

You think?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2491078/100-families-hit-benefit-cap-receiving-week-salary-60-000.html

(Apologies for Daily Mail link)

[skivrmt]

It's not that difficult to protect yourself from about 3% inflation. If one can't manage that they are doing it all wrong.

2% instead of 5% is not protection. You are still being stolen from. And this:

2. The real inflation is an order of magnitude higher than 3%

(Though probably not quite an order of magnitude. More like 3x)

It's not a magnitude.  It's higher.  Magnitude technically is basically orders of 10.  The CPI inflation "bucket" needs to be updated, but alas, government is slow on this things.

[Nightowlace]

Got your bids filled, Adam?  We backed the train up just so you could hop on.  It's not a fun trip without free beer the whole way.

soon sellers gana sell on virtex, i will get what i want.

keep it on the down low

finally got some bids filled.


we can now move up again.

Now you know this means we are just going to go lower than your filled bids for at least 72 hours. It's that subtle slap in the face then we move up.

[Richy_T]

2. Typical gold bug/libertarian argument. Yeah, stay away from that risky fiat and buy gold/silver, even though you will probably get slaughtered more holding precious metals in the next couple of years.

People have been saying that for years now and yet... It's not so much the PMs that are increasing in value, it's the $ that's decreasing. (I have almost 0 PM holdings FWIW, I consider them a little overpriced currently. But again, "and yet...")

[Richy_T]

Remember it's only money. Or is it  

For the old Beatles fans
Ask the guy who says "I'm the taxman, ... yeaa I'm the taxman ...an"
If this doesn't make sense, you're too young to be complaining  

I like this one better

Tax his land, tax his wage,
Tax his bed in which he lays.
Tax his tractor, tax his mule,
Teach him taxes is the rule.

Tax his cow, tax his goat,
Tax his pants, tax his coat.
Tax his ties, tax his shirts,
Tax his work, tax his dirt.

Tax his chew, tax his smoke,
Teach him taxes are no joke.
Tax his car, tax his grass,
Tax the roads he must pass.

Tax his food, tax his drink,
Tax him if he tries to think.
Tax his sodas, tax his beers,
If he cries, tax his tears.

Tax his bills, tax his gas,
Tax his notes, tax his cash.
Tax him good and let him know
That after taxes, he has no dough.

If he hollers, tax him more,
Tax him until he’s good and sore.
Tax his coffin, tax his grave,
Tax the sod in which he lays.

Put these words upon his tomb,
"Taxes drove me to my doom!"
And when he’s gone, we won’t relax,
We’ll still be after the inheritance tax.

[adamstgBit]

Got your bids filled, Adam?  We backed the train up just so you could hop on.  It's not a fun trip without free beer the whole way.

soon sellers gana sell on virtex, i will get what i want.

keep it on the down low

finally got some bids filled.


we can now move up again.

Now you know this means we are just going to go lower than your filled bids for at least 72 hours. It's that subtle slap in the face then we move up.

good i'll buy more!

[JorgeStolfi]

It's not that difficult to protect yourself from about 3% inflation. If one can't manage that they are doing it all wrong.

For the average person it is a lot safer and easier to protect yourself from about 3% inflation (at least in Western countries) than to speculate in something crazy like bitcoin.

Indeed.  In the 80's, when monthly inflation here in Brazil was in the double digits, banks offered "overnight" investment funds (called just that, in English) that approximately compensated for inflation but were totally liquid.  So everybody quickly transferred any money they received into those funds, and took it out (automatically even) just before each payment.

Such instruments are still available. (This year, the inflation is expected to be around 5-6%/year.) The Central Bank and private banks offer several kinds of bonds that yield inflation plus something, by various formulas -- prime rate, consumer price index, fixed interest, etc. Such bonds are regularly used by companies and large investors as a liquid and safe money storage.  Ordinary citizens use savings accounts and liquid investment funds provided by their retail banks.  No one would be stupid to keep their savings in cash or in plain checking accounts.

Inflation is a big nuisance, for sure: it makes medium-range planning more complicated and risky, requires constant renegotiation of salaries and price markups in stores, is another substantial tax that drains wealth from the economy, etc.. ... but it is survivable.  If the US dollar's inflation ever "explodes" from 1%/year to, say, 10%/year, things will get real "interesting" -- but doomsday prophets will be disappointed.

[Richy_T]

What I wonder, with these multiple hundred coin dumps: Where do they get them from? Do they print them? 

24 * 6 * 25 = 3,600 new coins mined everyday. Miners sell them to pay bills (electricity, miners..).

And they're so stinking rich they don't care about slippage?

Their margins are so slim and their debts and electricity bills need to be paid so likely they only have somewhat limited option.

I think this is actually likely to be a bigger factor than people think. In the last 12 months or so, we've moved from semi-pro miners who are likely to want to hold their freshly minted Bitcoin to commercial miners who are just in it for the profits, accumulation be damned. The Bitcoin inflation rate is therefore less masked and actually quite high at the moment. The last halving was followed by a rise many were claiming would not happen, I expect the next one to be very interesting. We have a while to wait for that though.

[madmat]

What I wonder, with these multiple hundred coin dumps: Where do they get them from? Do they print them? 

24 * 6 * 25 = 3,600 new coins mined everyday. Miners sell them to pay bills (electricity, miners..).

And they're so stinking rich they don't care about slippage?

Their margins are so slim and their debts and electricity bills need to be paid so likely they only have somewhat limited option.

I think this is actually likely to be a bigger factor than people think. In the last 12 months or so, we've moved from semi-pro miners who are likely to want to hold their freshly minted Bitcoin to commercial miners who are just in it for the profits, accumulation be damned. The Bitcoin inflation rate is therefore less masked and actually quite high at the moment. The last halving was followed by a rise many were claiming would not happen, I expect the next one to be very interesting. We have a while to wait for that though.

Yes, a lot of time

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-09 22:27:52 UTC (105 weeks, 12 hours, 10 minutes)
http://bitcoinclock.com/

[ErisDiscordia]

As if holding fiat stalls economic growth. As if fiat is not designed to steal from the uneducated who don't know what else to hold than fiat.

The educated get rewarded, the uneducated do not.
Survival of the fittest isn't a conspiracy orchestrated by the evil banksters.

Of course it's not.

It's just that the current system full of bailouts and behind the scenes manipulation doesn't have much to do with "survival of the fittest". Or which traits are we trying to reward here?

[dropt]

What I wonder, with these multiple hundred coin dumps: Where do they get them from? Do they print them? 

24 * 6 * 25 = 3,600 new coins mined everyday. Miners sell them to pay bills (electricity, miners..).

This.  For most people its a near break even or losing game for them with the current difficulty.   This of course includes initial hardware, upgrades, electricity, etc.  They -have- to sell.

No we don't.

[Richy_T]

It's not a magnitude.  It's higher.  Magnitude technically is basically orders of 10.  The CPI inflation "bucket" needs to be updated, but alas, government is slow on this things.

Slow? They're moving backwards, deliberately adjusting it to (try to) make inflation look lower.

[Richy_T]

If the US dollar's inflation ever "explodes" from 1%/year to, say, 10%/year, things will get real "interesting" -- but doomsday prophets will be disappointed.

[N12]

Their margins are so slim and their debts and electricity bills need to be paid so likely they only have somewhat limited option.

I think this is actually likely to be a bigger factor than people think. In the last 12 months or so, we've moved from semi-pro miners who are likely to want to hold their freshly minted Bitcoin to commercial miners who are just in it for the profits, accumulation be damned. The Bitcoin inflation rate is therefore less masked and actually quite high at the moment. The last halving was followed by a rise many were claiming would not happen, I expect the next one to be very interesting. We have a while to wait for that though.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=713973.msg8071083#msg8071083

One of the few actual fundamentals with Bitcoin, yet noone really gives a shit.

[Moria843]

What I wonder, with these multiple hundred coin dumps: Where do they get them from? Do they print them? 

24 * 6 * 25 = 3,600 new coins mined everyday. Miners sell them to pay bills (electricity, miners..).

And they're so stinking rich they don't care about slippage?

Their margins are so slim and their debts and electricity bills need to be paid so likely they only have somewhat limited option.

I think this is actually likely to be a bigger factor than people think. In the last 12 months or so, we've moved from semi-pro miners who are likely to want to hold their freshly minted Bitcoin to commercial miners who are just in it for the profits, accumulation be damned. The Bitcoin inflation rate is therefore less masked and actually quite high at the moment. The last halving was followed by a rise many were claiming would not happen, I expect the next one to be very interesting. We have a while to wait for that though.

I still think most mining is done through mining pools made up of small miners like myself. I'm currently mining about 0.1 BTC/day or about 3 BTC per month. My hardware and everything else has been paid off through earlier mining and now my only cost is electricity, which was around $570 last month. So it cost me about $190 per BTC. I don't sell them and will keep mining as long as it's profitable. It's also a hobby and it's good that I don't have to pay myself an hourly fee to keep things going. I have 3 bitcoin wallets. One where my mining coins go; one for my purchased investment coins; and one for my spending coins. My spending coins account for only about 2% of what I have and the remaining 98% I'm holding.

[JorgeStolfi]

It does not seem likely that "starving miners" are responsible for the large single-transaction dumps.  Even the most desperate ones would be selling 25 BTC at a time, no?

Those dumps could be (1) traders who panic and sell everything at once because they think a crash is underway, (2) rich but dumb novices who have not learned about slippage yet, (3) traders who get burned and leave "stomping and slamming the door", (4) "Wang Li, you get our money out of that bitcoin thing NOW or I will take the kids away and file for divorce."

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pieter_Bruegel_the_Elder_-_The_Alchemist.JPG

[Richy_T]

I still think most mining is done through mining pools made up of small miners like myself. I'm currently mining about 0.1 BTC/day or about 3 BTC per month. My hardware and everything else has been paid off through earlier mining and now my only cost is electricity, which was around $570 last month. So it cost me about $190 per BTC. I don't sell them and will keep mining as long as it's profitable. It's also a hobby and it's good that I don't have to pay myself an hourly fee to keep things going. I have 3 bitcoin wallets. One where my mining coins go; one for my purchased investment coins; and one for my spending coins. My spending coins account for only about 2% of what I have and the remaining 98% I'm holding.

It shouldn't be too hard to tell assuming most new coins go mined->pool->miner (Though I know p2pool does straight mined->miner) and are held there for those accumulating. Anyone doing this analysis?