Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[silverfuture]

" Indeed, you all will have options to enter the cryptocurrency sector via illegitimate ways – much like you download a movie via torrent, rather than buying an original DVD. Regulations will only open an options for you to remain on the safer side. It is up to which way you prefer."

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/fincens-new-bitcoin-guidelines-actually-good-news-48297

There you have it. Both options will still be available.

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[JayJuanGee]

one cant know if it is cheap or not, because the price is not included in the protocol

bitcoin production price is atm 131 and sold as 351... it seem fair price to me

I'm going to say this makes no sense. 170% is a nice profit margin. If this was the case we would not see the diff level off like it has in the last month.

I would also like to see where you got those numbers from...

here is my calculation :

http://www.coinwarz.com/miningprofitability/sha-256/?hr=1400.00&p=990.00&pc=0.1000&e=Bitstamp


the cost of one bitcoin is  (just electricity) :

we need 52 days x $2.38 for electricity -----> 52x2.38=123 usd  (more or less)

but this is without ROI cost, it only the electricity, and the operator work for free.

PS: @ 1.4 T we need about 52 days to create 1 bitcoin.
 

In other words, you took one of the costs, and calculated that cost, and then you thereafter concluded that the one cost was all the costs while conceding that you had failed and/or refused to account for any additional costs.


In other words, you have NOT provided a complete and/or accurate accounting for how much it costs to produce each bitcoin.  

hmmm... but what if the electricity was free

What if?    If the electricity is free then there are more profits; and those are incentives for mining and incentives for dumping coins, but mining costs also are NOT a reflection of the totality of factors that affect current bitcoin prices.

thats why i was sayng the price above 300 was fair, i didnt said that the miner get 140% profit or anything... pls check again

Based on my fairly quick perusal, whatever point(s) your making, those points do NOT seem to be based on very complete cost calculations.... that's my main point in responding to your posts.

btw i want to add that at this usd price point (which btw is irrelevant to future price),  people have to sell 1/2 just to pay electricity versus the ideal price of 600 which ppl will just have to sell 1/3.  
which in turn increase the number of coin in circulation.

let us all pray that mass adoption happen tommorrow...

amen

First:   I find it a little irritating that you are continuing to build hypothesis and theories based on your incomplete analysis of the cost of BTC based on ONLY the cost of electricity.... which you have also conceded to be an incomplete analysis b/c you are attempting to simplify matters.  Accordingly, you seem to be engaged into a simplification that merely is either A) at best, based on a fantasy world or 2) at worst purposefully, spreading FUD.

Second:  are continuing to build Mass adoption is NOT "a" necessary solution to advancing current BTC prices.  There are enough large bitcoin players who are invested in BTC or who could jump into BTC and upward manipulate BTC prices into the $10k to $13K territory, if they were to want to and with a lot of the current levels of BTC adoption..  Additionally if BTC prices were to spike into that $10k to $13k direction, which surely is possible (but NOT guaranteed), there would be sufficient number of hype to cause new people to find out about BTC and to jump  onto the BTC train and to assist with the causing of that upward BTC price trajectory.

Third:  Even assuming your fantasy $150 BTC production costs, your point about miners needing to sell 1/2 their bitcoin at the current price to pay for electricity seems to assume that BTC prices may stay in this price range for an extended period of time or that miners are potentially going to go along with a business model in which they are selling currently mined BTC at the current prices.  On the contrary, I am of the understanding that a large number of current BTC miners are also speculating about the BTC prices and tend to be fairly bullish about BTC prices and the direction of BTC.  Accordingly, a large number of BTC miners would NOT be inclined, in the short-term, maybe even next 6-12 months to sell currently mined BTC at these current prices (of course there are exceptions to any rule and there will be some miners whose hands will be forced and/or who are NOT bullish about the long term direction and/or prices of BTC).  In other words, you seem to be engaged in a form of fantasy thinking to be suggesting that a large number of miners are engaged in a practice to sell their BTC at current prices and engaging in a business practice based on such conceptions of current BTC prices being somehow reflective of long term BTC prices.

[mmitech]

On a more serious note,
<==click
Discuss.

Non-economic actors are buying/borrowing bitcoins OTC, then using them to sell down the market at a loss.

It will work until all the weak and gullible hands have no more bitcoins, then it won't.

The weak hands... I didn't imagine the delusion phase will be this long.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Yum. Delicious reptilians.

I had conducted an internet search on eating lizards, and there does NOT seem to be too much information about the nutritious value of lizards.  I would think that lizards would be pretty nutritious - especially since they eat a lot of insects, so lizards should be fairly high in omega 3 fat... but what do I know?

[adamstgBit]

[/img][/URL]

Yum. Delicious reptilians.

[/img][/URL]

I had conducted an internet search on eating lizards, and there does NOT seem to be too much information about the nutritious value of lizards.  I would think that lizards would be pretty nutritious - especially since they eat a lot of insects, so lizards should be fairly high in omega 3 fat... but what do I know?

sure wtv

i'd still rather eat 12 raw hotdogs.

[JayJuanGee]

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/fincens-new-bitcoin-guidelines-actually-good-news-48297

http://www.sys-con.com/node/3220637


 

bullish news on bitcorn, bitcorn will soon be equal to fiat

  You mean $1/BTC?  

Cheap coins

Findftp:   

Regarding your bitcoin bubble prediction that you seem to tweak a little from time to time but in essence you had predicted the beginning of the next BTC price bubble to begin between 9/25 and 10/25 and to peak between 11/6 and 11/20.. that is this year    .

 I realize you are attempting to stick to your BTC price bubble prediction, but your prediction is seeming a bit ridiculous and likely needs to be revised... to get more in touch with reality.  Even if the last part of your prediction comes true (that we experience a BTC bubble peak sometime between 11/6 and 11/20), it could hardly be said, given recent price declinations, that October 5 was the launching point of such current bubble.  Additionally, you should just admit that your other prediction about bubble the bubble commencing before October 25, was just flat out wrong.  

Actually, I could give a rat's ass about whether people get predictions right or NOT. I am ONLY pointing out the wrongness of your prediction to  you because of your seeming arrogance about such prediction.  Personally, I believe there is a better and more honest practice to predict and to attached some probabilistic value to such prediction, rather than appearing to assert such predictions with certainty.. b/c none of us really know the price direction of BTC in the short-term, unless we happen to be a whale manipulator.

[adamstgBit]

the gr8est buying opportunity of our time is just around the corner!!

COME TO PAPA!

[JayJuanGee]

one cant know if it is cheap or not, because the price is not included in the protocol

bitcoin production price is atm 131 and sold as 351... it seem fair price to me

I'm going to say this makes no sense. 170% is a nice profit margin. If this was the case we would not see the diff level off like it has in the last month.

I would also like to see where you got those numbers from...

here is my calculation :

http://www.coinwarz.com/miningprofitability/sha-256/?hr=1400.00&p=990.00&pc=0.1000&e=Bitstamp


the cost of one bitcoin is  (just electricity) :

we need 52 days x $2.38 for electricity -----> 52x2.38=123 usd  (more or less)

but this is without ROI cost, it only the electricity, and the operator work for free.

PS: @ 1.4 T we need about 52 days to create 1 bitcoin.
 

In other words, you took one of the costs, and calculated that cost, and then you thereafter concluded that the one cost was all the costs while conceding that you had failed and/or refused to account for any additional costs.


In other words, you have NOT provided a complete and/or accurate accounting for how much it costs to produce each bitcoin.  

hmmm... but what if the electricity was free

What if?    If the electricity is free then there are more profits; and those are incentives for mining and incentives for dumping coins, but mining costs also are NOT a reflection of the totality of factors that affect current bitcoin prices.

thats why i was sayng the price above 300 was fair, i didnt said that the miner get 140% profit or anything... pls check again

Based on my fairly quick perusal, whatever point(s) your making, those points do NOT seem to be based on very complete cost calculations.... that's my main point in responding to your posts.

btw i want to add that at this usd price point (which btw is irrelevant to future price),  people have to sell 1/2 just to pay electricity versus the ideal price of 600 which ppl will just have to sell 1/3.  
which in turn increase the number of coin in circulation.

let us all pray that mass adoption happen tommorrow...

amen

I would like to see some figures from someone who is currently mining.
the average cost kwh in US is 13.01 cents
i did some back of cigarette packet calculations
5.5 tH/s rig cost $4000
rig consumes 3.5kw/Hr
electricity at 13 cents over 12 months $4000
total cost $8000
mining output including increased difficulty over 12 months yields 26 coins
taken as 2.55 coins in month 1 and 1.67 coins in month 12
at current price 26 coins $357 = $9300
that doesnt include labor, cost of housing rig, opportunity cost of the $8000 outlay etc
margins are very thin
even at electricity $0.08 in China and $0.10 in some States theres not a killing to be made.

 

mining bitcoin used to be ROI in 2 month thehehehehe...

Yeah, Noobtrader, you would NOT want to substantively account for some of the factual information in the above post because those factual representations may get in the way of your baloney fantasy vision about the supposed cost per BTC in the $150 territory.

[JayJuanGee]

[/img][/URL]

Yum. Delicious reptilians.

[/img][/URL]

I had conducted an internet search on eating lizards, and there does NOT seem to be too much information about the nutritious value of lizards.  I would think that lizards would be pretty nutritious - especially since they eat a lot of insects, so lizards should be fairly high in omega 3 fat... but what do I know?

sure wtv

i'd still rather eat 12 raw hotdogs.

Actually, there could be lizard in your hotdog, and you would NOT even know it.    


 


 FFFFFFF@@@@#$###$#$$#$#@@@#$CK

[macsga]

Yum. Delicious reptilians.

I had conducted an internet search on eating lizards, and there does NOT seem to be too much information about the nutritious value of lizards.  I would think that lizards would be pretty nutritious - especially since they eat a lot of insects, so lizards should be fairly high in omega 3 fat... but what do I know?

Daaaaeemn!!!!
If trolling would ever be illegal, 99.9% of this thread's posters will definitely be imprisoned... (myself included) 

[MrPiggles]

I looked at mining and I figured out it'd cost me, with whatever hardware I looked, and my current electric price $270 ish per bitcoin


Can't rmemeber my exact calculations, it wasn't too long ago either

[silverfuture]

" Indeed, you all will have options to enter the cryptocurrency sector via illegitimate ways – much like you download a movie via torrent, rather than buying an original DVD. Regulations will only open an options for you to remain on the safer side. It is up to which way you prefer."

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/fincens-new-bitcoin-guidelines-actually-good-news-48297

There you have it. Both options will still be available.

original bitcoiners will always tend to choose : : x : : > no taxes+no regulation !  :-)

Most likely, but options are good. I know people who used to download movies but since netflix came along have just gone that way due to ease of use and low costs.

[NotLambchop]

the gr8est buying opportunity of our time is just around the corner!!
...

The road to mental health is just around the corner!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[noobtrader]

Yeah, Noobtrader, you would NOT want to substantively account for some of the factual information in the above post because those factual representations may get in the way of your baloney fantasy vision about the supposed cost per BTC in the $150 territory.

pls stop putting word into my mouth, its obvious that im saying that todays price is fair atm.

if you can buy bitcoin at 150, thats cheap because you only pay the electricity....

[octaft]

pls stop putting word into my mouth, its obvious that im saying that todays price is fair atm.

if you can buy bitcoin at 150, thats cheap because you only pay the electricity....

If you want to "debate" with JayJuanGee, best get used to a whole lot of words being put in your mouth.

[oldm8]

I looked at mining and I figured out it'd cost me, with whatever hardware I looked, and my current electric price $270 ish per bitcoin


Can't rmemeber my exact calculations, it wasn't too long ago either

Mr Piggles
Your calculation is very close to mine for the difficulty figure at present time this month.
I ran the calculation forward over 12 months to include increased difficulty and came up with average £307 but only for rig cost and electricity.
I suspect the latest rig would be unprofitable to run after 12 months or so maybe even before that.
In real world calculations you would need to take into consideration down time for maintenance, power outages etc.
Labor say 50 hours per year at your own labor cost
You would want to insure your equipment against loss/theft fire.
Opportunity cost of that equipment if only costed at 5%-10% when put into another project.
In many countries there would be a cost related to cooling the equipment although this may be balanced out if your rig heats your home in a country with cold winter months.
plus transaction costs of converting bitcoin to fiat in order to pay your energy supplier.
there are bound to be loads of other costs on top of these
I think youd be lucky to realistically break at $350 per coin in most countries unless you had stolen or heavily discounted industrial energy supply.

[tarmi]

guys, it doesnt matter how much it costs to produce 1 bitcoin.

if it costs too much, then it is maybe time for the difficulty to adjust itself downwards.

[derpinheimer]

Anyone have a thought as to why longs/shorts on BFX seem to be tied together?

Every time new shorts are opened, longs increase by the same $ amount, or damn close to it. Shorts closing doesnt seem to have the same effect.