Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Walsoraj]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-end-qe3-but-not-the-qe-concept-1414512881
Bullish?  

There is a paywall. Can you quote the entire article?

Article below. This isn't really bullish. Yes, the fed is open to more bond buying if needed. But, they are ending the program for now because it appears to have worked in their eyes.

Bullish would be the fed saying, "oh, and yes we expect to restart the program but don't know when."

Federal Reserve officials meeting Tuesday and Wednesday are virtually certain to end their latest bond-buying program, but they won’t be retiring the policy for good.

Their recent comments show bond purchases are now an established part of the Fed’s policy tool kit that they could employ again in times of deep economic trouble. The central bank has employed three rounds of bond-buying programs since the 2008 crisis, first to stabilize the financial system and later to spur stronger growth.

Several Fed policy makers say they think the latest round of Treasury and mortgage-bond purchases, begun in late 2012, helped lower long-term interest rates, boosting hiring and growth. But they also see a high bar to launching more bond buying—known as quantitative easing, or QE—seeing it as a last resort to use only if very low interest rates and communications efforts were to fail to reverse a sharply worsening economic outlook.

“I think QE is quite effective,” Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, describing the approach as an option for dealing with an adverse shock to the economy.

Related Video
Dorothy Weaver, former chair of the Federal Reserve bank branch in Miami, joins MoneyBeat with a preview of the Fed's decision on bond-buying and interest rates. Photo: Getty.
John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, said in a recent Journal interview that he would consider more bond buying in a “worst-case scenario,” in which the forecasts for growth and inflation were very poor and officials had already exhausted other tools to spur the economy.

Supporters of QE note the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.9% in September from above 8% when they launched the current and third round of bond purchases. The economy has grown for most of the past five years, though modestly and erratically. And while inflation has been running below the Fed’s 2% target for more than two years, it has risen a bit and stabilized in recent months.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has said she wouldn’t rule out more bond buying if needed, and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer deemed the program “largely successful.”

ENLARGE
Yet opponents in academia, on Capitol Hill and even at the Fed cite a number of concerns. Many point to the weak economic growth of recent years and see little benefit to bond buying and many risks.

Fed officials such as Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker worry the new money the Fed created to buy bonds—more than $3 trillion through the three programs—could fuel excessive inflation when growth picks up or asset bubbles that could cause financial instability and potentially another crisis.

Mr. Lacker is among those particularly unhappy with the Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed bonds in the latest program, saying it “tilts the playing field against borrowers in other economic sectors, such as businesses and renters.”

The Fed’s bond buying has generated plenty of research, with differing conclusions about its effectiveness. Many of the studies agree the programs worked very well to stabilize the financial system during the 2008 crisis, but disagree about how effective the programs have been in boosting growth since then.

MORE

Fed Favors Guidance Over Bond Buys
Ahead of the Tape: Following the Dotted Line
A QE Research Bibliography
The Fed’s October Meeting, at a Glance
Fed Touchy About Touching Rate Guidance
Sign Up: Central Banks News
The Great Dissenter—It’s Not Fisher or Plosser
In a 2012 speech, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke cited a Fed study estimating the first two rounds of Fed bond purchases in 2008 and 2010 “may have raised the level of output by almost 3% and increased private payroll employment by more than 2 million jobs, relative to what otherwise would have occurred.”

But some studies have found much smaller or unclear benefits.

Mr. Williams wrote a paper this year concluding the Fed’s bond-buying programs “have proven a potent but blunt tool, with uncertain effects on financial markets and the economy.”

Arvind Krishnamurthy, a professor at Stanford University, said his research suggests the bond purchases helped through their direct effect on asset values—for example, by lowering bond yields and pushing up stock prices—and also through the strong signal they sent about the Fed’s intention to keep interest rates down for some time to bolster the economy.

CENTRAL BANK WATCH

Here is how the central banks in four major advanced economies have moved two key levers of monetary policy in recent years, and how two important economic indicators have responded. View the interactive.

ENLARGE
GRAND CENTRAL

Grand Central newsletter: Sign up to receive the Journal’s daily report on global central banks
E-Book: Yellen and the Fed, a WSJ Briefing
James Bullard , president of the St. Louis Fed, said in a recent interview with Bloomberg TV the Fed could consider continuing the bond purchases beyond this month to keep its options open amid falling U.S. inflation expectations. But no other Fed official has shown support for the idea.

Policy makers have been winding down the bond-buying program all year and decided at their September meeting to end it after this month if the economy continued to improve as expected.

Mr. Rosengren, an advocate for aggressive policies to bring down unemployment, said the Fed’s criteria for ending the bond program have been met. Reaching “5.9% [unemployment] relative to where we were when we started the program is a substantial improvement,” he said.

He said even if his forecast for continued employment gains deteriorated dramatically, he wouldn’t turn to more bond purchases as the first line of defense. “There are other tools that we can use,” he said, such as holding interest rates very low for longer than anticipated and communicating that intent publicly.

Many investors expect the Fed to start raising its benchmark short-term rate from near zero in the middle of next year, a view some top officials have encouraged.

Also:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-ends-qe3-and-sends-upbeat-signals-on-economy-2014-10-29

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/read-what-fed-says-on-ending-qe-stimulus-2014-10-29

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[Walsoraj]

Good or improving economy = bearish for bitcoin. 

[noobtrader]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-end-qe3-but-not-the-qe-concept-1414512881
Bullish?  

There is a paywall. Can you quote the entire article?

Article below. This isn't really bullish. Yes, the fed is open to more bond buying if needed. But, they are ending the program for now because it appears to have worked in their eyes.

Bullish would be the fed saying, "oh, and yes we expect to restart the program but don't know when."

tldr

Also:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-ends-qe3-and-sends-upbeat-signals-on-economy-2014-10-29

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/read-what-fed-says-on-ending-qe-stimulus-2014-10-29

the market already expecting qe4

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102132192

[JayJuanGee]

I enjoy watching dumb animal greed get bitchslapped by the Invisible Hand.  Market forces at work, what's not to love?

Maybe the people who got in at <$10 and held the entire way through because they thought $600, $800, etc. wasn't enough -- waiting for $100k/btc or whatever ridiculous prices bulls we're calling for during the big rise -- could be considered greedy, but the guys who bought at those prices were actually quite generous in their donations to those who bought at single/low-doubles and had the sense to take profit along the way.

$100k is still within the reasonable realm of possibilities... and merely b/c people are making these kinds of claims does NOT mean that they are tricking anybody or attempting to trick anybody. 

Now if we attach probabilities to various possible price points, then some predictions are going to be more outlandish than others... but none can really guarantee the future, so that is a bit much to attribute some blame to people who are more bullish in their predictions regarding the height of the price rise and the speed of the escalation.

[Walsoraj]

JayJuanGee,

If I post several long paragraphs explaining why possibility does not imply even slight probability, would it have any impact on your analysis about anything?

[cbeast]

After Quantitative Easing ends, Quantitative Assistance begins. Free money for the poor and high flat tax with loopholes for the rich. BAU.

[grappa_barricata]

Why you guys think they stopped QE3? Because the real economy is improving? Don't be ridiculous. The fact is that they cannot do this any further, so brace yourself US citizen. Watch the stocks market this week for an anticipation of the doom magnitude.

[Blue]

I see, they have a big whole ready for the next big dump to come.

Yeah NASA had it laready figured out decades ago.

[NotLambchop]

JayJuanGee,

If I post several long paragraphs explaining why possibility does not imply even slight probability, would it have any impact on your analysis about anything?

No, but you'll get x5 paragraphs back, each one longer than yours.

Profit

[octaft]

JayJuanGee,

If I post several long paragraphs explaining why possibility does not imply even slight probability, would it have any impact on your analysis about anything?

No, but you'll get x5 paragraphs back, each one longer than yours.

Profit

And all of them will focus on one nitpicked line from everything you typed.

[JayJuanGee]

While the bulls listen to suicide hotline hold muzak, I'm DANCE PARTY!

Yes, you and posters like mmitech seem to revel in the potential misery and losses of others.  Sad state of affairs for you kinds of people, that is if you happen to be real people.

I enjoy watching dumb animal greed get bitchslapped by the Invisible Hand.  Market forces at work, what's not to love?

THE year's at the spring   
And day's at the morn   
Morning's at seven
The hill-side's dew-pearl'd
The lark's on the wing    
The snail's on the thorn
God's in His heaven--
All's right with the world!   

Bullshit!!!!   You are assuming that people who invest in bitcoin and want prices to go up are greedy.. and then you try to implant those ideas on them in order to denigrate them and to project a negative image of bitcoin.    There is NOTHING really healthy about those kinds of feelings and those kinds of needs to paint bitcoin in such a negative light.

Yup.  Pure, unchecked animal greed  Idiots hoping to make millions and getting owned by their betters.  In teh unregulated free market they themselves championed.

Yeah.  Dig yourself further into your stupid-ass simplistic view of the world and view of the motives of bitcoiners.  Surely there may be a few people who fit that description of motives; however, it is NOT as wide-spread and common as you are asserting such greed motives to be.

[cbeast]

When the toothless bearwhales are done, the sharks will come.

[NotLambchop]

...
Yup.  Pure, unchecked animal greed  Idiots hoping to make millions and getting owned by their betters.  In teh unregulated free market they themselves championed.

Yeah.  Dig yourself further into your stupid-ass simplistic view of the world and view of the motives of bitcoiners.  Surely there may be a few people who fit that description of motives; however, it is NOT as wide-spread and common as you are asserting such greed motives to be.

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

 

[cbeast]

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

Also babies, puppies, and rainbows. Now you are starting to get it. If you want to know how, you'll have to ask, but I'm sure you are not interested in the motives of others.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dakota neat]

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

Also babies, puppies, and rainbows. Now you are starting to get it. If you want to know how, you'll have to ask, but I'm sure you are not interested in the motives of others.

Man, he sold everything right before the 2013 November bubble. Now he is so butthurt that anyone but him has gotten rich and he's crying like a baby all day. Must be painful to be such a looser.

[NotLambchop]

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

Also babies, puppies, and rainbows. Now you are starting to get it. If you want to know how, you'll have to ask, but I'm sure you are not interested in the motives of others.

Are you being intentionally daffy, or did your mind finally snap due to devastating (and, frankly, predictable and therefore embarrassingly avoidable) financial losses?

[octaft]

If a troll is ranked 0-10 in terms of how many people he successfully baits/how frequently he baits them, Lambchop has to be at least 8/10.

[NotLambchop]

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

Also babies, puppies, and rainbows. Now you are starting to get it. If you want to know how, you'll have to ask, but I'm sure you are not interested in the motives of others.

Man, he sold everything right before the 2013 November bubble. Now he is so butthurt that anyone but him has gotten rich and he's crying like a baby all day. Must be painful to be such a looser.

Lolno.

...
When I think about the money you've already lost because stupid & stubborn...

[Wandererfromthenorth]

^ My friend's comment about drone/industrial:  "Spent thousands on this stuff.  Should'a just gone down to the basement and listened to my furnace." <==true story

(last OT post)

pffffff,

My last comment: "You´re not true if you don´t own multiple copies of the whole Merzbow discography!"

http://www.discogs.com/artist/12551-Merzbow

Edit:

or Agathocles  

http://www.discogs.com/search/?q=agathocles

Merbow is not bad!

What about Gerogerigegege?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPGTuidwxm4

LOL