Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

And if we are to worry about paper losses, the skeptics have more to lose than their untarnished egos. For example, you have been around these parts since December of last year, you've had plenty of time to accumulate some bitcoins for sub $1000/$600/$300 prices. Your lack of buying over the past year means you've forgone the chance to reap the benefits of a sudden bubble to say $6k. That's a 10x increase in paper gains you are betting on not happening. Which I would guess would have more impact to your life than the loss of a couple million would to the Draper family. Fear of missing out is as good a reason as any to try to influence the price down for a skeptic.

I am not sure I understand the logic.  "I may have an oportunity to make more than 1000% ROI in the near future, but since I did not bet on that opportunity before, I will try to prevent that opportunity from arising."

By the way, note that my strategy -- NOT buying a single satoshi -- has put me in a much better position, vis a vis that fabulous possible opportunity, than all those who went "all in" since last November, when I first learned of bitcoin.  In the unlikely chance that I decide to invest now, I will get twice as much return on the dollar than those who bought in January and have been hodling since then.

You are being quite selective with your presentation and your timeline.  There are people who got involved in BTC in January 2013, and currently those investments would be worth about 30x the initial investment value.    Since December or January, you have been whining about the decline of value of BTC and you have been using the November/December ATH as your starting reference point...  Your vision seems a bit skewed, no?  Do you claim to be an academician?

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[bassclef]

Not sure you can say that, the same formation happened before and was followed by more down.
Also, the circumstances were different than what they are now...

Everything has been followed by more down, lately, even good news. At some point one has to start taking a balanced view and not just because we've made a lot of money shorting and the prevailing trend is down, so we must have more down. I've increased my stash quite a bit for the ride up, which will be happening sooner rather than later, but it doesn't mean I'll keep shorting when I see signs of the trend reversing.

12h chart. Look at the sell volume. Not exactly a high-volume selloff. Bears are almost out of ammo.

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee,

If I post several long paragraphs explaining why possibility does not imply even slight probability, would it have any impact on your analysis about anything?

Maybe.       Nonetheless, I understand the difference between the terms, but you never know about whether something that you may say may enlighten the thinking of another.... whether bot or human.

[InvestorPerson]

perfect time to buy in now, cheap coins, look at those cheap coins OMNOMNOM, after that of course to DA MOON yaddayaddayadda



 

[tarmi]

Not sure you can say that, the same formation happened before and was followed by more down.
Also, the circumstances were different than what they are now...

12h chart. Look at the sell volume. Not exactly a high-volume selloff. Bears are almost out of ammo.

we had a steady low volume decline since 600 levels.

I am not buying that out of ammo story. nobody is.

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee,

If I post several long paragraphs explaining why possibility does not imply even slight probability, would it have any impact on your analysis about anything?

No, but you'll get x5 paragraphs back, each one longer than yours.

Profit

Or if you direct the message to NOT Notporkchops, you will get some stupid ass cartoon that is only quasi-relevant making fun of you.  Go figure.   

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee,

If I post several long paragraphs explaining why possibility does not imply even slight probability, would it have any impact on your analysis about anything?

No, but you'll get x5 paragraphs back, each one longer than yours.

Profit

And all of them will focus on one nitpicked line from everything you typed.

And, for those readers who are challenged, like Octaft, they will have difficulties holding their thoughts on one idea for more than one sentence at a time.

[JorgeStolfi]

Trolls like to make comments like "How will you look your family in the eyes when you have to tell them you lost all our money when Bitcoin crashed."

Well, it is a good question, isn't it?  How will you? 

You should definitely think about it before putting all your savings into bitcoin.  It is the wise investors, not the trolls, who say "don't invest what you cannot afford to lose."

They don't want that type of comment applied to them. "How will you look your family in the eyes and tell them you knew about Bitcoins when they were worth under $1000, now that they are worth $100k. We could have been set for life, and not left with all this worthless fiat".

I have let pass countless opportunities when I could have multiplied our money by 10x, yet still have no problem looking my family in the eyes.  Perhaps because there were also many "opportunities" when I could have lost it all, and there was no way to tell which was which beforehand. I could have bought WorldCom or OGX shares a year after the IPO and sold them at the top.  Or could have bought them a coupl of years later, and been unable to sell before they crashed to zero.

[JayJuanGee]

...
Yup.  Pure, unchecked animal greed  Idiots hoping to make millions and getting owned by their betters.  In teh unregulated free market they themselves championed.

Yeah.  Dig yourself further into your stupid-ass simplistic view of the world and view of the motives of bitcoiners.  Surely there may be a few people who fit that description of motives; however, it is NOT as wide-spread and common as you are asserting such greed motives to be.

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

 

People participate in this thread and other threads in order to read and post about various ideas related to bitcoin.... NOT the whole community of bitcoin investors participate in these kinds of threads.  Additionally there is a lot of variation to the extent that people are informed about their investments and/or their investment strategies... .In other words, those investment strategies do NOT necessarily boil down to "greed," and as I have asserted the prevalence of "greed" is a much smaller factor than you are making it out to be... and much smaller of a factor than you are harping upon with your ongoing attempts to spread FUD.

[bassclef]

Not sure you can say that, the same formation happened before and was followed by more down.
Also, the circumstances were different than what they are now...

12h chart. Look at the sell volume. Not exactly a high-volume selloff. Bears are almost out of ammo.

we had a steady low volume decline since 600 levels.

I am not buying that out of ammo story. nobody is.

I am, and I tripled my coin stash thanks to volume analysis during the big drop from 600s. The big dumps, which were higher volume and obviously from a single entity if you watched the tape, was somebody selling a shitload of coins and traders following. They are not here anymore and haven't been since the BTC30,000 wall.

Look I'm not saying it is going to rocket up tomorrow, these markets surprise me again and again. Just saying we are in a longer term reversal pattern where the trend has a higher probability of reversing, and it's pretty risky to be short right now.

[Boxman90]

Sometimes I wonder how you guys come up with this shit.

[NotLambchop]

...
Yup.  Pure, unchecked animal greed  Idiots hoping to make millions and getting owned by their betters.  In teh unregulated free market they themselves championed.

Yeah.  Dig yourself further into your stupid-ass simplistic view of the world and view of the motives of bitcoiners.  Surely there may be a few people who fit that description of motives; however, it is NOT as wide-spread and common as you are asserting such greed motives to be.

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

 

People participate in this thread and other threads in order to read and post about various ideas related to bitcoin.... NOT the whole community of bitcoin investors participate in these kinds of threads...

My posts are about, and aimed at, the people in this thread.
Those not "participating" in this thread don't get to see them, thus are spared the butthurt.
It all works out, JayJuanGee, it all works out

[bassclef]

TA 101

1) spot trend, follow it until it shows signs of reversal
2) learn what reversal patterns are, how they relate to market psychology, where they occurred historically in these markets, and how to recognize them and their variations
3) have enough self-respect and confidence in your position that you don't have to troll threads talking your book
4) profit

[JayJuanGee]

...
Yup.  Pure, unchecked animal greed  Idiots hoping to make millions and getting owned by their betters.  In teh unregulated free market they themselves championed.

Yeah.  Dig yourself further into your stupid-ass simplistic view of the world and view of the motives of bitcoiners.  Surely there may be a few people who fit that description of motives; however, it is NOT as wide-spread and common as you are asserting such greed motives to be.

>Because people buy, hold, and speculate in Bitcoin (this thread) to save kittens.

 

People participate in this thread and other threads in order to read and post about various ideas related to bitcoin.... NOT the whole community of bitcoin investors participate in these kinds of threads...

My posts are about, and aimed at, the people in this thread.
Those not "participating" in this thread don't get to see them, thus are spared the butthurt.
It all works out, JayJuanGee, it all works out

Accordingly, I will take that as a concession of sorts, that you are merely calling participants of this thread greedy, and NOT all bitcoiners.  Therefore, we have made a little bit of progress with your thinking, even though there seems to be a long way to go... and really, I do NOT put it passed you to continue to attempt to engage in further inaccurate claims..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

While you were making progress, so has Bitcoin.  Look!  A daily low!

[WeGotCactus]

https://i.imgur.com/EmGhuCP.png

Not sure you can say that, the same formation happened before and was followed by more down.
Also, the circumstances were different than what they are now...


http://i59.tinypic.com/vh6wc2.png

Volume reaction was stronger this time around, FWIW.

[NotLambchop]

...
Volume reaction was stronger this time around, FWIW.

[abercrombie]

[fonzie]

 

Not bad