Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

I finally did it, I Ignored NotLambchop. Damn that feels good, breath of fresh air for sure.
...

I realize it's pleasant to ignore painful facts--but it's me who'll be wiping your snot and drying your tears when you [predictably] end up broke.

[NotLambchop]

LOL, okay Citi says the coins are going to go for a steep discount, must sell all my coins, after all they are bitcoin experts    

Which thought is correct?

(a) They should go for somewhat of a discount because it's an auction, and they are buying in bulk.
OR
(b) They should go for a bit over the current price because one couldn't simply buy that large amount of coins regularly without causing major slippage.

(c) They should keep doing what they're doing:  Politely stifling their laughter.

*No one has answered my culinary question. 

[dreamspark]

LOL, okay Citi says the coins are going to go for a steep discount, must sell all my coins, after all they are bitcoin experts   

Which thought is correct?

(a) They should go for somewhat of a discount because it's an auction, and they are buying in bulk.
OR
(b) They should go for a bit over the current price because one couldn't simply buy that large amount of coins regularly without causing major slippage.

If you go back this thread in June you'll see this discussed over and over again. Im going to quote oda here rather than writing lots of stuff out I hope he doesn't mind but it should give you an idea of what likely happened last time and theres not much to suggest it should be different.

Tim Draper is holding (so he says; although his coins moved recently, it seems).  Given his experience (~33% paper loss so far), the next auction winner may be a speculator who buys substantially below market to sell right away, possibly on the markets. 

People (the bearish side of the forum, I mean) said exactly the same thing last time. That'd it be turned into arb profit right away (which was and is plausible, of course. iirc correctly, there was even a lady from some bank registered that *did* specialize in arb ^_^). Didn't work out that way. We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

All of the above holds this time again. Arb opportunity still exists, but requires getting the coins well below market. Will that happen? I strongly doubt it. Renewed volume across all exchanges, and several large buys of Secondmarket during the last weeks lead me to think the current price level is maybe not "stable" (nothing is ever stable in the banana republic of Bitcoin), but that it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful.  If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Lowball offer based on market price means market price times some value < 1.

The lower that value, the more arb profit. The closer that value to 1, the higher the chance you'll get a chance at arb profit.

If you think they submitted a $20 offers, sure, go ahead. I sure would have liked to see the meeting the bank lady had with her superiors afterwards.

What wraps it up is that one participant outbid all other participants on all lots. The previous auction converged around market price at the time, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if it was market +5% or market -5%, but my point is, from references to on-exchange market price plus auction mechanics and one winner of all lots, "near market" is a pretty conservative conclusion. Harping on about how it probably went away for a fraction sounds more like wishful thinking to me, tbh.

[NotLambchop]

^TL;DR of the above, in a single gif:

[cbeast]

Future News Headline: Kim Jong-un surrenders the Korean War. Terms of surrender include DPR's and Gox's bitcoins totalling nearly 1 million. Whil;e the world goes broke rebuilding North Korea, Dr. Kim as he calls himself now buys The Dallas Mavericks with Dennis Rodman and renames the team the White Skins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[noobtrader]

i wonder when we will receive info about the auction this market is killing me. no volume and flatlined price.

[Assad]

i wonder when we will receive info about the auction this market is killing me. no volume and flatlined price.

Auction will be tomorrow.


Guess no info until friday, maybe until monday

[uvt9]

OMG Bashar al Assad is interested in Bitcoin, this is bullish  

[cbeast]

i wonder when we will receive info about the auction this market is killing me. no volume and flatlined price.

Auction will be tomorrow.


Guess no info until friday, maybe until monday

Expect FUD and false leaks.

[JayJuanGee]

Fucking broken logic, did a woman done came up with this?

So tell me, is it sexual frustration or financial frustration that makes you say sexist shit?

Fake edit: Probably both.

It was a joke

Relax kid!

But aren't jokes supposed to be funny?

That joke was funny... 

[spooderman]

What kind of gentlemen is this?

[600watt]

nice buy on stamp

[Unpredictable]

nice buy on stamp

and dump before it

[FUR11]

nice buy on stamp

and dump before it

Well, the slipping down to $374 made me dread another big dumping down into the $360s or $350s, but this really looks rather optimistic now. I wonder if this is sustainable growth, or just another slow train that falls down at some point.

[Torque]

It's just too much of a coincidence that the USMS auction is going to coincide perfectly with the Stamp 3d EMA cross.   

[findftp]

It's just too much of a coincidence that the USMS auction is going to coincide perfectly with the Stamp 3d EMA cross.   

And we all know what that means, right?
Drop down to at least 270 in 3 weeks.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

[wobber]

Show me an ATH before I die
Take me out of this stag-cry

Teach me again on how to fly
Lead me so that I can buy