Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Traktion]

Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

Good post, but I would add that it isn't just the current chart which is bearish; there is a common theme to all bubbles.

Bubbles are essentially malinvestment, fuelled by irrational hype/panic, which pushes the price way beyond where the fundamentals would otherwise leave it. Whether it is tulips, shares, houses or Bitcoins, it doesn't really make much difference. Those who are bearish in the short/medium term are likely scholars of the many previous bubbles which are littered throughout history.

Ofc, the trick is knowing where the price forms a floor. How much more is Bitcoin worth now than January, when the bubble started forming? Considering it was about $15, is it worth twice that now? 3 times that much? More? How much has changed since January to justify this?

If the answer is 'not a lot', then don't be surprised to see the price continue to tumble. Personally, I think Bitcoin has gathered more momentum and it has survived another dangerous bubble. I'm unconvinced that it is worth more than 6 times what it was just 8 months ago though - maybe 2-4 as a gut feeling, though.

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[ChartBuddy]

[Traktion]

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as you can see, their wasnt very much $ volume on the way up
But their is a FUCK load on $$ volume on the way down.
I would expect to see volume lvl off for a while, bitcoin gets kinda boarding
then a year later, bitcoin its 3 times the size it is today  

I think you need to zoom out a bit further...

[adamstgBit]

...



as you can see, their wasnt very much $ volume on the way up
But their is a FUCK load on $$ volume on the way down.
I would expect to see volume lvl off for a while, bitcoin gets kinda boarding
then a year later, bitcoin its 3 times the size it is today  

I think you need to zoom out a bit further...

ya if you zoom out more you can see the smart money take good positions early

the volume  we got on the way down from 266 tho was Crazy!    bitcoin

[Its About Sharing]

I think this (circled areas) is a bullish BEARISH (edit) divergence between price making a lower high and RSI making a higher high. (Or do I have that backwards?)

[Traktion]

I think you need to zoom out a bit further...

ya if you zoom out more you can see the smart money take good positions early

the volume  we got on the way down from 266 tho was Crazy!    bitcoin

Well, there was a lot of stupid money exiting those same positions that the smart money was buying into - we always have sellers to match the buyers after all.

The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?

[adamstgBit]

I think this (circled areas) is a bullish divergence between price making a lower high and RSI making a higher high. (Or do I have that backwards?)

yes RSI is looking good, it crossed the half way mark. ready to shot up and stay high for a while, i wonder what stocahasts looks like these days...


i say buy now and plan to buy more later 

[adamstgBit]

I think you need to zoom out a bit further...

ya if you zoom out more you can see the smart money take good positions early

the volume  we got on the way down from 266 tho was Crazy!    bitcoin

Well, there was a lot of stupid money exiting those same positions that the smart money was buying into - we always have sellers to match the buyers after all.

The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?

what changed?
well nothing, bitcoin is bitcoin
but lots has happened in 6 short months
And more bitcoin stuff coming soon  

[Its About Sharing]

Look at RSI between beginning of May and end of May. Same thing, price decreased and RSI came back up to same levels and then price fell shortly there after. So, bearish divergence?

[adamstgBit]

I think you need to zoom out a bit further...

ya if you zoom out more you can see the smart money take good positions early

the volume  we got on the way down from 266 tho was Crazy!    bitcoin

Well, there was a lot of stupid money exiting those same positions that the smart money was buying into - we always have sellers to match the buyers after all.

The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?

It is not so much what has changed from January. But what has changed since the halving. The thing that is changing is market psychology as everyone tries to figure out how to price in the inflation rate being cut in half, because that fundamental is not going to change for another few years. I think that the price reflects the testing of some of those ideas, and I think there are yet some views about the economic effects of Bitcoin that have yet to be tested. TL;DR I don't think that the effect of halving has been fully priced in yet.  

the next halving will be earlier then predicted again... much earlier, ASIC is crazy shit!   

[rpietila]

The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?

Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that is either worth hundreds of $billions or not much. During whole of its history it has been worth "not much" and dissecting the current price movements that (literally) I can create at will, does not lead us anywhere. It is simply too small. 99.9% of money managers have not taken any position yet. It goes to much higher or zero, and it is difficult for it to go to zero, (as well as it is difficult to shut down the internet).

The recent runup in price was an event I did not see many predicting. If it now goes to zero due to (for example) a concerted crackdown on all the exchanges, it does not alter my perception of the long term value. Nobody is forced to sell at zero. I work in gold/silver, and the crash in prices this year has lead to people not selling their scrap silver any more. In 2008 silver was valued officially at $9 per oz, but in 2.5 years it went up to $50.

This is a percentage game. You got a certain percent of coins, good.

[Its About Sharing]

Guys, check my charts above, we have a huge BEARISH RSI divergence and look at how violent the last one was (triangle area in my pic - look what followed that divergence with RSI)

[chriswilmer]

The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?

Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that is either worth hundreds of $billions or not much. During whole of its history it has been worth "not much" and dissecting the current price movements that (literally) I can create at will, does not lead us anywhere. It is simply too small. 99.9% of money managers have not taken any position yet. It goes to much higher or zero, and it is difficult for it to go to zero, (as well as it is difficult to shut down the internet).

The recent runup in price was an event I did not see many predicting. If it now goes to zero due to (for example) a concerted crackdown on all the exchanges, it does not alter my perception of the long term value. Nobody is forced to sell at zero. I work in gold/silver, and the crash in prices this year has lead to people not selling their scrap silver any more. In 2008 silver was valued officially at $9 per oz, but in 2.5 years it went up to $50.

This is a percentage game. You got a certain percent of coins, good.

+1

[adamstgBit]

I think you need to zoom out a bit further...

ya if you zoom out more you can see the smart money take good positions early

the volume  we got on the way down from 266 tho was Crazy!    bitcoin

Well, there was a lot of stupid money exiting those same positions that the smart money was buying into - we always have sellers to match the buyers after all.

The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?

It is not so much what has changed from January. But what has changed since the halving. The thing that is changing is market psychology as everyone tries to figure out how to price in the inflation rate being cut in half, because that fundamental is not going to change for another few years. I think that the price reflects the testing of some of those ideas, and I think there are yet some views about the economic effects of Bitcoin that have yet to be tested. TL;DR I don't think that the effect of halving has been fully priced in yet.  

the next halving will be earlier then predicted again... much earlier, ASIC is crazy shit!   

But the question is, will aggregate supply get ahead of aggregate demand?

I think not. And the relationship of price to the ratio of aggregate demand versus aggregate supply is exponential—not linear.

Boom.

lol, exactly!

[adamstgBit]

The question is though - what has changed since January? Granted, exposure has certainly increased - does that mean BTC is worth 6 times more, 7 months later?

Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that is either worth hundreds of $billions or not much. During whole of its history it has been worth "not much" and dissecting the current price movements that (literally) I can create at will, does not lead us anywhere. It is simply too small. 99.9% of money managers have not taken any position yet. It goes to much higher or zero, and it is difficult for it to go to zero, (as well as it is difficult to shut down the internet).

The recent runup in price was an event I did not see many predicting. If it now goes to zero due to (for example) a concerted crackdown on all the exchanges, it does not alter my perception of the long term value. Nobody is forced to sell at zero. I work in gold/silver, and the crash in prices this year has lead to people not selling their scrap silver any more. In 2008 silver was valued officially at $9 per oz, but in 2.5 years it went up to $50.

This is a percentage game. You got a certain percent of coins, good.

rpietila's online
BUY BUY BUY

[ChartBuddy]

[rpietila]

rpietila's online
BUY BUY BUY

It is almost as if we were friends...

[ElectricMucus]

You guys gonna buy the $92 wall or not?

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

You guys gonna buy the $92 wall or not?

Not buying with that big RSI divergence.
If it corrects at all like the last one, it is going to be ugly.