Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Voodah]

Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

This probably just means people are getting better abusing the system.

[Its About Sharing]

Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though?

[rpietila]

Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself.

There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.

I am bullish about BTC in the long run but I'm also flat broke.  If the bears are going to hold the price down for long enough for me to scrape enough cash together to catch the train too then that's fine by me.  'Due to unforeseen circumstances the 12:41 train to the moon will be delayed' - just like my order from BFL of course

In the meantime I'll just keep turning over the small amount of BTC that I already have because this market uncertainty does present a good trading opportunity

Bears don't have anything to sell, so they cannot keep the price down. Only the bulls can take it down by selling. But there are no bulls! So it does not look like the price would go down for any longer period of time. Unless Bitcoin dies, of course, which we know is not happening. In 2011 it took some balls to invest and we were handsomely rewarded. Now it is quite obvious that bitcoin will be worth much more and only thing we are debating is whether an odd week will close $50 or $70 in the meantime. If you know daytrading, this is a good opportunity. Long term just buy and forget.

[Traktion]

Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though?

I doubt they would hit the block chain. While you are trading at an exchange, you're just playing with numbers in the exchange's database. It's only when fiat/BTC are withdrawn that any action occurs.

That said, I'm sure you will get some people who withdraw all of their trading BTC each night for safe keeping.

[Its About Sharing]

Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though?

I doubt they would hit the block chain. While you are trading at an exchange, you're just playing with numbers in the exchange's database. It's only when fiat/BTC are withdrawn that any action occurs.

That said, I'm sure you will get some people who withdraw all of their trading BTC each night for safe keeping.

Of course, I don't know what I was thinking. Thx

Rpietila - I've wondered about what you just brought up. I guess there are still quite a few people that want to unload, even though they are bulls, they take the occasional profits and if you have 10's of thousands of BTC, unloading some on a down move (to buy back later) might not be bad. But what a bounce that will be...

[ChartBuddy]

[niothor]

Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though?

https://blockchain.info/de/charts/n-transactions?address=15Z4XmorKSN51ndyPrZ2EtL7Nnksb88888

How much of it is spam , that is the question


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253426.0

[rpietila]

Rpietila - I've wondered about what you just brought up. I guess there are still quite a few people that want to unload, even though they are bulls, they take the occasional profits and if you have 10's of thousands of BTC, unloading some on a down move (to buy back later) might not be bad. But what a bounce that will be...

I think Bitcoin is expanding in waves, each one is an order of magnitude bigger. In the end there may be the final forward escape, the singularity event, if everyone decides to leave fiat currency in one supermove consummating in 6-9 months. Until that happens, it just takes 12-24 months to reach a new wave ("bubble") high, driven by the investors that heard about Bitcoin during the previous top.

Now we are waiting for millions of people who heard this year, to summon their money to buy. On the other side, there is almost no one who still has coins to sell. The upmove 2 weeks ago showed that price can go up 50% with almost no buying pressure. There are so little bitcoins available that there will be an immediate squeeze as soon as the current bears decide to buy back. I bet almost nobody did 2 weeks ago. With all likelihood, most of them will never recoup their coins. This, naturally, has to be so - otherwise "there would not be enough coins for all", and price would rise even more. In the end, nobody will sell bitcoin for fiat, but it seems we are not there yet. (And may not be, if things change: I have been waiting since 2006 that nobody would sell gold and silver for fiat, still they are obtainable although silver is tricky).

[Coinseeker]

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

I hardly thought such enlightenment was possible from anyone other than true bears. It's so good in fact, it deserved a two page bump.  +1  

[ChartBuddy]

[molecular]

I hardly thought such enlightenment was possible from anyone other than true bears. It's so good in fact, it deserved a two page bump.  +1  

Hehe. Thanks. A slightly bearish post (although it was intended to be balanced it seems it turned out a bit bearish) from a perma-bull is worth more than bear-fud repeated over and over by known bears, I guess

[Jozzaboy]

Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself.

There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.

My lord and master, there is still bulls left. I am... all in.

[molecular]

Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself.

There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.

My lord and master, there is still bulls left. I am... all in.

I'm still 90% in Bitcoin... lowest value ever for me. But do not fear... I don't have much and it's not going to drop below 80% ever (using current valuation). Even if my rational mind shuts down completely due to fear and panic, it'd take me too long to get to the keys (especially then).

[ElectricMucus]

Becoming a bear actually requires deliberation, disillusionment and time. It's never a panic reaction.

Only sheep panic sell, and bears really like sheep 

[ChartBuddy]

[molecular]

Becoming a bear actually requires deliberation, disillusionment and time. It's never a panic reaction.

Only sheep panic sell, and bears really like sheep  

[ManBearPig]

Good summing up from Molecular (sorry, too hot to find and quote).

My perspective as a long-term bull hasn't changed at all but I agree to that the $50 mark is a the biggest resistance point we should all be looking at. It will take some slow erosion if we ever reach that low again though.

Other cryptos I've dabbled in include LTC and XPM both of which are the only other I consider possibly having a future but these are mere distractions.

Summer's here and we Brits for one have switched off for now, making the most of this rare hot weather we're having!

That's it really. Not much else happening.

[Nightowlace]

You know how we avoid bubbles and enjoy stability and gradual growth?

ECONOMY

Right now BTC is good for trading, that's it. What do you do with your bitcoins? Do you purchase things with them? I do, I try to spend them, make them, create business' around them etc. What are you doing to help grow the economy besides sitting on this forum bitching about whether or not your "investment" will grow, or decrease.

Go out to your locally owned business' ask them if they would be willing to accept BTC if you helped them set it up. That's what we do in our local community. How about you introduce BTC to 3 people a day, really talk to them about it. Inform them, give them your contact, get theirs for a follow up.

You really want your investment to grow. Make it happen, be apart of the generating the buzz, the next round of media hype. Right now all people know about is the media hype, the bullshit that is force fed to them. The "oh yeah the internet money that tanked".

I'm tired of hearing the what ifs, the maybes, the hopefully's, the well if. You know what you are hoping for? You're hoping for someone to get off their ass and push BTC to grow. Be that person.

Dunno if you're talking to me but:

1) I use bitcoin both as an investment (why not take advantage of its current unstability?) and as a currency (the way it was supposed to be).

2) I've introduced bitcoin to all my friends.

But yea, your idea on helping businesses didn't come to me, and it's actually a quite good idea, I should do it.

Also, BTC _will_ grow anyways.

Nice motivational speech.

It wasn't directed at you specifically, it was directed more towards everyone. My point is that we the "bitcoin community" will be whatever we make it. It's really that simple.

[adamstgBit]

i've lost track of price Lol

so 180 soon  


or

90  

buy buy buy

[adamstgBit]

Proof that Bitcoin is headed to 180 and why thats a good price to sell at




as you can see, their wasnt very much $ volume on the way up
But their is a FUCK load on $$ volume on the way down.
I would expect to see volume lvl off for a while, bitcoin gets kinda boarding
then a year later, bitcoin its 3 times the size it is today, So if bitcoin goes to 180 tomorrow i'm selling