Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[1715135318]

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[Elwar]

Technically that's a gross oversimplification of the math and processes involved. It will tighten supply, which could send the price up tenfold. Unless it disrupts the mining industry in such a way that it sends BTC plummeting.

A tightened supply is only a factor if there's increasing demand. Right now there are more than enough existing coins for everyone and mined coins are only a fraction of daily volume. Maybe there'll be a psychosomatic boost but I hope people aren't pinning too much on it.

Even just keeping current demand will ensure a rise in price when there is a smaller supply.

But the potential variance in demand is much larger than the assured decrease in supply. And that assured decrease is only to the network itself. We don't know how much miners are selling now and how much they will sell after the halving.

I have repeated assurances by all bears that all miners immediately sell all of their bitcoins for fiat.

[TReano]

Going to Hit 210$ this time..Just Hold on and watch the ditches...
I think it will be a good time to buy a 10x Bitcoins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdg3Ea9rEGo

"cheap cheap!!"

[gentlemand]

I have repeated assurances by all bears that all miners immediately sell all of their bitcoins for fiat.

Don't forget the merchants too despite Bitpay saying most coins are immediately sold OTC to a network of buyers.

Ignore that. Every single merchant transaction is a Little Death.

[Elwar]

I have repeated assurances by all bears that all miners immediately sell all of their bitcoins for fiat.

Don't forget the merchants too despite Bitpay saying most coins are immediately sold OTC to a network of buyers.

Ignore that. Every single merchant transaction is a Little Death.

BitWage is the opposite of that, and continues to grow. $1 million in transactions last month.

[Elwar]

Going to Hit 210$ this time..Just Hold on and watch the ditches...
I think it will be a good time to buy a 10x Bitcoins.

Not sure if we'll hit 210 but I fully agree that now is a great time to start buying more whilst the price is so low. Technically if you were to buy 10 now at these prices you should double your money as a result of the halving next year.

Buy & HODL people.

Technically that's a gross oversimplification of the math and processes involved. It will tighten supply, which could send the price up tenfold. Unless it disrupts the mining industry in such a way that it sends BTC plummeting.

This is where it all starts:

1. Many here think that demand for speculative asserts (e.g. BTC) is no different from demand for physical, consumable assets (e.g. oil, blow, etc., etc.two Latinses in a single parenthetical--smart!).  The two bear but the vaguest family resemblance.

2. Many don't grasp the fundamental difference between saving food (e.g. having full granaries) and saving money (e.g. having a mattress/piggy bank full of it). When money is "spent," it is not, unlike food or oil, destroyed.

Yeah, should be obvious to a child, but yet...

The key is velocity of each coin. If 14 million bitcoins are sitting in peoples' wallets not being used, then those last few bitcoins for trade will be highly sought after. If all bitcoins are in play on a daily basis then they will be easier to obtain and thus a lower price.

[ImI]

Technically that's a gross oversimplification of the math and processes involved. It will tighten supply, which could send the price up tenfold. Unless it disrupts the mining industry in such a way that it sends BTC plummeting.

A tightened supply is only a factor if there's increasing demand. Right now there are more than enough existing coins for everyone and mined coins are only a fraction of daily volume. Maybe there'll be a psychosomatic boost but I hope people aren't pinning too much on it.

Substract all the trading volume which obv builds the biggest part of the daily volume and you will find find that per day 2 or 3 million less sold will make a tremendous difference.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[DeathAngel]

Coin
Explanation

The price isn't crashing then. 220 looks like a new solid bottom to me.

[btccashacc]

Thank for 225 time to up again
we will see 240$ again maybe 250

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

You mean to say that if BTC had higher velocity (used more), it would be ...cheaper?

Well, yes, but depends on what "used more" is supposed to mean.

The money velocity equation is  P = V × T / N  where P is the unit price (USD/BTC), V is the volume of payments using that currency (USD/day), T is the mean time between two payments with the same unit (days), and N is the number of units in circulation (BTC).  It is not even economics, but just basic algebra, from the definitions of those quantities.

If there was no hoarding, N would be 14 million (all coins in existence), and T may be perhaps 14 days (wild guess).  Hoarding requires changes those numbers. 

One may (1) exclude from consideration the coins that are being hoarded.  Then T is still 14 days, but N is only a fraction of 14 million.

Or one may (2) include the hoarded coins. Then N is 14 million, but T would be 1000 days or more (since most coins have been held for years without use).

The expression "bitcoin gets used more" could mean that more people are using bitcoin and/or are spending more; that is, a bigger V.  Then the price would go up.

Or it could mean that some of the hoarded coins are put back in circulation; that is, N gets bigger (approach 1) or T gets smaller (approach 2).  Then the price will go down.

[Fakhoury]

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Patel]

Fill in your predictions:

https://i.imgur.com/Xq7fzT0.png



Here is mine:

[Elwar]

Not sure how this addresses either (1) or (2), but let me see if I follow what you're saying...
You mean to say that if BTC had higher velocity (used more), it would be ...cheaper?
@ImI: see (1)

Here is a Bitcoin velocity calculator to play with:
http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html

With a video to explain it a bit more:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2nXgK34HIM&feature=share

Imagine BitWage had everyone getting paid in bitcoins at the beginning of the month. And everyone spent their bitcoins with BitPay merchants. BitWage is fiat -> bitcoins. BitPay is bitcoins -> fiat.

If everyone held their bitcoins all month and waited until just before they got paid again and spent their whole paycheck at a BitPay merchant then the only bitcoins available on the exchange would be those bitcoins mined that month.

If everyone got paid in bitcoins then immediately turned around and spent their whole paycheck at a BitPay merchant then there would be plenty of bitcoins available all month on the exchanges.

The reality is that people are paid at different times and spend at different times so as more people are paid in bitcoins with BitWage it will eventually cancel out the spending via BitPay.

More merchants accepting bitcoins via BitPay or any other means encourages people to get paid in bitcoin via BitWage and vice versa.

[ssmc2]

Fill in your predictions:

https://i.imgur.com/Xq7fzT0.png



Here is mine:

I share your forecasting thoughts.

[Elwar]

The video has the equation as: P = (TxVol/Vel) * (1/Supply)
P = Price
TxVol = Transaction Volume
Vel = Velocity
Supply = Current amount of bitcoins that exist

[JayJuanGee]

I have repeated assurances by all bears that all miners immediately sell all of their bitcoins for fiat.

Don't forget the merchants too despite Bitpay saying most coins are immediately sold OTC to a network of buyers.

Ignore that. Every single merchant transaction is a Little Death.

It's only a "little death" if you use that spending opportunity to cash out of BTC.  If you replace most if not all of your bitcoins as you spend them or some convenient time thereafter, in order that you continue to retain a sizeable stash of BTC, then the odds are better that your spending has caused some rippling effect (even if a majority is converted to fiat) and you have accomplished some positive developments in the bitcoin space.. rather than merely assisted in a cashing out.


Really there is NO problem with doing both... cashing out and spending and replacing... each person needs to assess circumstances to decide the extent to which s/he is going to engage in each activity.

[Melupira89]

It's time for pump