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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26373310 times)
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September 13, 2015, 02:02:45 AM

The bitcoin shitstorm that is unfolding right now summed up in one picture Grin



If we go much lower, it will be a very nice buying opportunity.



It's already a nice buying opportunity...    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 13, 2015, 02:29:50 AM

In fact, many of the problems that he describes are in fact features and NOT bugs

Since you are a holder and speculator, of course we disagree on that.  In my view, you are one of bitcoin's problems.  Grin


Little bit disingenuous of you to participate in a thread to judge others who are investing into something and to call them "problems" because they are investing.  What are you investing in?  naysaying the activities of others?






a claim that there needs to be a built in approximate 2% inflation (or devaluation) is preposterous because it supposedly addresses a non-existing problem, at least at this time.

so make it a bad investment?

Bitcoin was created to be a currency, not another speculative asset- and dividend-free investment fund (or pyramid scheme, its more honest name).  There is no shortage of the latter, and (as I wrote earlier) that use of bitcoin will not make the world better, create new wealth, or render some useful service; it will just move wealth from some people to other people.

You are full of shit!!!!  Bitcoin was created for a variety of purposes, including the currency aspect.  You seem to be oversimplifying matters in order to create strawmen arguments.  and mislead others by oversimplification.







Economists have know for 500 years that a currency must have some inflation, otherwise people will hoard it and it will not be available for use as a currency.  


Yeah.. appeal to authority... 500 years  OMG... you really are saying something here........ NOT.  You are just making up facts out of your ass.






The use of bitcoin for investment and speculation had two other bad consequences.  First, it lifted the price to 100 times what it should have been, given its current level of usage.  The price is floating in the air, high up, anchored to itself through the hopes of traders and holders.  It could crash from there at any moment.  No company in its right mind would want to hold it, even temporarily.  Imagine a manager accepting a payment of 1000 BTC today, and the price crashing tomorrow, before he can spend or sell those coins.  How could he explain that to the company owners? (You can find out there an audio of Overstock's CEO trying to explain something like that to the other shareholders; but AFAIK he is the majority holder, so he won't get fired for that...)


YES.... what if, what if...   You know better than that.  if you are using bitcoin as a payment system, then you have the option to cash out right away or to hold them for a specific cash out time. With anything new, there may be a learning curve concerning decisions regarding when to cash out, if cashing out is part of the plan.




Second, but tied to the first: bitcoin's use as instrument of speculative trade made its price extremely volatile.  Even in times of "stability", like the past 7 months, the price has changed by ±10% in a few hours, several times.  Volatility is bad for a currency: the user who buys BTC to pay for something will lose money if the BTC price drops between the two actions, and will not really win if it goes up -- because he will be left with a small amount of BTC that he may not find a good use for.

That is why a good cryptocurrency must be designed to NOT be a good investment.


Yes, if an asset is volatile, then that needs to be taken into account, but that volatility does NOT mean that it is a bad thing because, as I already mentioned, BTC is much more than a currency.    You again are attempting to frame facts in an incomplete way in order to engage in scare tactics....

All of these months in bitcoin, and you still have NOT learned how to be more comprehensive in your analysis rather than simplified and selective extrapolations?





his suggestion that Satoshi would agree...  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Wat da fuck?

From what I have read, I am satisfied that  Satoshi intended bitcoin to be what he wrote in the whitepaper: a system for peer to peer payments through the internet that did not require a trusted third party.  He believed that the world needed such a thing, but no one knew how to build it, and thought that he had found a way.    That seems to have been his motivation to design the bitcoin protocol; and he then implemented it to see whether the idea worked out in practice.

But Satoshi was a computer scientist, not an economist.  He thought that it would be nice if the currency had no inflation.  For "everybody" knows that inflation is bad, right? I thought so too.

His he pleased about what bitcoin turned out to be?  Well, on one hand it is always satisfying to do something big, even if it is a big nuclear accident or the sinking of the Titanic.  But I doubt that he is happy about what his creature has become...




Your further explanation supports that you are engaged in a BIG ASS guessing game regarding what Satoshi thought or what he would think.  It does little to no good for you to engage in this kind of speculation to go back to "original intent" or to attempt to attribute the direction of bitcoin to the "founder," because in fact, Satoshi either removed himself or fell out of the bitcoin scene.... Accordingly, bitcoin became a dynamic phenomenon that is influenced by a variety of players (rather than by any one player).   in other words, bitcoin has become a sort of community asset, and there is some freedom for anyone to buy into it or to refrain from such.  Even though you are fairly informed about bitcoin, you seem to be someone who has knowingly chosen NOT to financially invest into bitcoin, but instead chosen to invest into denigrating bitcoin.... I'm fairly certain that some anti-bitcoin entities would be willing to pay you to continue in such supposedly voluntary and unpaid conduct.  So, are you being paid for all of the time that you spend in the various bitcoin forums?  You must be receiving some payments for your work and/or your publications and/or your attempts to build your reputation as some kind of anti-bitcoin "expert." 

Sorry to some of you for using the term "expert" in the same sentence in which I am referring to Stolfi.....   Cry Cry Cry





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September 13, 2015, 03:02:04 AM

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September 13, 2015, 03:20:53 AM

do you mean to keep the value low such that people dont need to use "mBTC/uBTC/satoshis/etc"? Most bitcoin software allows you to send payment in mBTC or $USD (converted to BTC value). having decimals is not a bad thing, and if that is a problem for some people even when thier wallet software does the 'mBTC/satoshi' conversion its an issue of ignorance.

You cant use a wallet every time you want to think about the price of something.  "Is 0.00023 Foocoins too much for a cup of coffee?" "Is 0.03 milliFoocoins more or less than 3200 Footoshis?"  

The smallest unit of the currency should be worth maybe 1/10 of the smallest thing that is worth buying separately.  Since it takes at least one minute to make an independent purchase, including the decision to purchase, there is no point having means of payments with a much smaller granularity than the value of a minute of one's time.  (That must be why true micropayments have still to find their use, in spite of 30 years of attempts to make them work.)

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again, you talk about making bitcoin unappealing so that it is not desirable as a store of value, why?

Not bitcoin; any cryptocurrency.  I explained why: because a currency that attracts hoarders and speculators is a terrible currency.

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you already pay fees like [ the proposed 2% negative interest ] via transaction fees and via the network currently inflating at ~12% (dropping to 6% next year). The concept of 'inactivity fees' is sheer insanity

It is insanity only if you start from the axiom that a cryptocurrency's goal is to rise in price so as to make investors rich.  If you start from the assumption that the goal is to serve as a currency, then insanity is what happened to bitcoin.

Bitcoin's transaction fees are too small to destroy the illusion of fabulous gains, and the 12% inflation of the currency base does not directly act on hoarders' holdings, because it is not paid by them but by the new investors.  So much so that the price (and therefore the hoarders' paper fortunes) grew by 1000% per year while that inflation was even higher than now.

A cryptocurrency with demurrage tax would fall directly on holders, and therefore hopefully discourage hoarding.  

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September 13, 2015, 03:28:18 AM

Demurrage is boring tho. In fact economics is a total snooze fest. Somebody break something
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September 13, 2015, 03:47:30 AM

Poll
Question:    Core Vs XT

same shit for more than a week? nothing new?

whale!!! missing a fat one to dump 50k btc around here Shocked Grin
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September 13, 2015, 03:49:13 AM

"Hoarders" is just a disparaging term for savers. Any economy needs savings for capital formation.

"Saver" i a very general term.  In the context of this discussion a "hoarder" is one who saves by colelcting a currency. Not meant to be disparaging -- although that is usually not a wise way to save.
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September 13, 2015, 04:02:07 AM

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September 13, 2015, 04:25:40 AM

"Hoarders" is just a disparaging term for savers. Any economy needs savings for capital formation.

"Saver" i a very general term.  In the context of this discussion a "hoarder" is one who saves by colelcting a currency. Not meant to be disparaging -- although that is usually not a wise way to save.

Collecting a currency is a way of saving that ensures a certain amount of liquidity and flexibility. I own some land that may turn out to be a better investment, but I can't sell a small piece of it if I need some cash and I certainly can't sell it fast.  Collecting the Real sure as shit ain't a wise way to save, I'll give you that.

If there is no incentive for people to consume less than they produce, most people obviously won't. The more incentive to save, the more people will save and the more they will save.  That doesn't mean the capital is idle. It means that they are lending it out to someone who has a use for it now, or they are holding and communicating a price signal in the market saying that the stuff they could have bought but chose not to is too expensive. 

Capital makes work more productive. A lumberjack with a chainsaw is more productive than one with an axe. Capital only comes from deferred consumption. Sustainable economic growth can only come from differed consumption. Having some central banksters or government bureaucrats distorting the price signals only causes harm.
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September 13, 2015, 05:02:07 AM

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September 13, 2015, 05:30:24 AM


A cryptocurrency with demurrage tax would fall directly on holders, and therefore hopefully discourage hoarding.  encourage dumping.




there i fix that for you
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September 13, 2015, 05:50:14 AM

Bitcoin was created to be exactly what it is and to be used in whatever way one sees fit. Why are people still engaging that argument, and those people, as if it and they had any merit?
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September 13, 2015, 06:02:03 AM

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September 13, 2015, 07:02:02 AM

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September 13, 2015, 07:04:00 AM

"Hoarders" is just a disparaging term for savers. Any economy needs savings for capital formation.

"Saver" i a very general term.  In the context of this discussion a "hoarder" is one who saves by colelcting a currency. Not meant to be disparaging -- although that is usually not a wise way to save.

You have been with us since 2013, nobody calls you up for interviews, nobody really cares what you have to say...so just admit that your attempt for some fame has failed yet again.

Let us be! WE NEED NO STINKING COMPUTER SCIENTIST HERE!!!!!!!!
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September 13, 2015, 07:11:56 AM

"Hoarders" is just a disparaging term for savers. Any economy needs savings for capital formation.

"Saver" i a very general term.  In the context of this discussion a "hoarder" is one who saves by colelcting a currency. Not meant to be disparaging -- although that is usually not a wise way to save.

You have been with us since 2013, nobody calls you up for interviews, nobody really cares what you have to say...so just admit that your attempt for some fame has failed yet again.

Let us be! WE NEED NO STINKING COMPUTER SCIENTIST HERE!!!!!!!!

Yeah! Who needs science when we have divine invisible magic coins!?!!?!!
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September 13, 2015, 07:21:19 AM

I think Jorge needs to have a read through this: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths

It's a good rundown of some common misconceptions
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September 13, 2015, 07:41:42 AM

JorgeStolfi is a special breed. He doesn't fully understand Bitcoin and he likes to argue.

Bitcoin was created to be a currency, not another speculative asset- and dividend-free investment fund (or pyramid scheme, its more honest name).

Who are you to state that bitcoin was created to be a currency? Are you Satoshi? Bitcoin is a protocol.

Economists have know for 500 years that a currency must have some inflation, otherwise people will hoard it and it will not be available for use as a currency.

Yes. Let's apply things that were used 500 years ago because we are too laze to innovate them. Good advice!

You cant use a wallet every time you want to think about the price of something.  "Is 0.00023 Foocoins too much for a cup of coffee?" "Is 0.03 milliFoocoins more or less than 3200 Footoshis?"   

The smallest unit of the currency should be worth maybe 1/10 of the smallest thing that is worth buying separately.

So if you can't do something then nobody should do it? Where is the logic in that? Considering that this technology is only a couple of years old then it is normal to take a bit of time to develop the best tools to use it. In the future the wallets will be much smarter than today. Just like you refrigerator, but not like you.

You have been with us since 2013, nobody calls you up for interviews, nobody really cares what you have to say...so just admit that your attempt for some fame has failed yet again.

Let us be! WE NEED NO STINKING COMPUTER SCIENTIST HERE!!!!!!!!

It is free for him to keep trying. Also fun for us to see him failing over and over!
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September 13, 2015, 08:00:19 AM

Can you imagine a design of cryptocurrency that would be to your liking, or is the concept as a whole damned to failure in your mind?

Hopefully that negative interest would be enough to dissuade hoarders and speculators.  


Most of this forum think the inflation of fiat currencies is a bad thing and that bitcoin has solved a problem with its fixed supply. They dont understand that inflation is a very important tool to keep investments going.


Imagine your national currency without inflation. The money you have in your pocket would never loose value. Seems nice if you dont have a lot of money but what happen if you had a lot of money. You could just hoard the money and live of ot for the rest of your life. There would be no interest in investing to make more money since investing is a risk.

With todays inflating fiat there is no point in hoarding money. Your money supply loose value if you just hoard them. You have to get the money out there and work for you. Either by investing or putting them in a bank and let them invest for you.

A fixed supply economy like bitcoin would be the end of investing. Why invest if you can just hodl to increase your holdings.
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September 13, 2015, 08:02:14 AM

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