Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[1714760937]

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[1714760937]

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[JayJuanGee]

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I think the current $450 price might well be enough to act as a tipping point for the cautious to start buying and holding.

We have wanted people to buy regularly but to date the outcomes have been very choppy. Now bitcoin has been around long enough that the numbers show that it is a very good thing to do even with some choppiness.

Lets say you buy just 1 bitcoin a year on your birthday which is 30 November ( the date of the gox ath so the “worst’ date possible to buy).

below is the average price you will have paid for your bitcoins if you started in 2010, then 2011 etc, The number in brackets is the number of bitcoins you would have.

$315(6)
$378(5)
$472(4)
$626(3)
$376(2)
$376(1)

So:
starting in 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 your av bitcojn cost price is below the current price.
starting in 2012 you are roughly breaking even
starting in 2013 you are in a loss


if bitcoin stays $450+ for a few years then even with the very unlucky start date in 2013 you might come out ok.

the lesson here it seems to me is that historically buying bitcoin has been a good  investment aside from the other benefits that bitcoin offers.

I'm not sure if I understand your chart exactly,

but I do know one thing, the world has not been priced in bitcoin between 2010 and present.


Therefore, it would make more sense to price your birthday gift in some form of fiat.

For example, every b-day, November 30, you buy $365 in BTC ($1 for each day of the year, blah blah blah), then your average is going to come out much better, but the scenario would be much more realistic, in the way that I have outlined it..

yes you are quite correct. you would come out much better off and your buying pattern in $ is more normal. However I did it this way to show even looking at it from a very bad angle (using bitcoins) the outcome is fine. That should convince even the doomsayers to get out and buy and we need both the optimists and pessimists to be buyers.

You can paint conservative scenarios by eliminating some of the advantages of earlier years, or changing amounts purchased or even trading BTC and making mistakes, but you should not undermine the very explosive scenario of BTC's price history.


I put together a quickie Excel chart to flesh out my above-described tweaking of aspects of your earlier scenario, and BTC's price looks outrageously explosive, even if you were to attempt to tweak some more and to paint such asepects in more conservative scenarios.

One of the issues, however, is that most of us probably did not even know about BTC until 2012 or 2013.. so to be more realistic, it may be better to eliminate some of the earlier years because we would not have known or have been able to invest.


Date               BTC Price      buy amount   BTC quantity                 Total BTC bought          Total fiat invested   Average per BTC
11/30/10      $0.30          $365.00           1,216.66666667                 1,216.66666667            $365.00                     $0.30
11/30/11      $3.00          $365.00           121.66666667                 1,338.33333333            $730.00                     $0.55
11/30/12      $12.50          $365.00            29.20000000                 1,367.53333333            $1,095.00                     $0.80
11/30/13      $1,150.00     $365.00            0.31739130                 1,367.85072464            $1,460.00                     $1.07
11/30/14      $380.00          $365.00            0.96052632                 1,368.81125095            $1,825.00                     $1.33
11/30/15      $380.00          $365.00            0.96052632                 1,369.77177727            $2,190.00                     $1.60

[JayJuanGee]

im dumping some btc over the next few days...need to hedge a bit incase btc does go down.  Not dumping for fiat...gonna buy a small basket of Alts.

Sounds like a bad idea... good luck

[suda123]

im dumping some btc over the next few days...need to hedge a bit incase btc does go down.  Not dumping for fiat...gonna buy a small basket of Alts.

Looks like the economy is collapsing and Bitcoin went up...... Better the stuff that a bit bitcoin

[marcus_of_augustus]

im dumping some btc over the next few days...need to hedge a bit incase btc does go down.  Not dumping for fiat...gonna buy a small basket of Alts.

Looks like the economy is collapsing and Bitcoin went up...... Better the stuff that a bit bitcoin

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2016/01/09/sale-grow-powerball-millions-saturday-drawing/78552386/

[Mrpumperitis]

im dumping some btc over the next few days...need to hedge a bit incase btc does go down.  Not dumping for fiat...gonna buy a small basket of Alts.

I understand there are some fine arbitrage opportunities over at Cryptsy. Why not give it a try.

 

[Mrpumperitis]

im dumping some btc over the next few days...need to hedge a bit incase btc does go down.  Not dumping for fiat...gonna buy a small basket of Alts.

Sounds like a bad idea... good luck

cheers m8, plan is to buy some alts that i know will be pumped while btc is being hyped over the next few months....btc may go up by another 100% however other alts will go up by alot more giving me more btc nearer the halving... ( done this many times before , most worked out really good for me  , risky but better to be in a few coins than just btc just now)

[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

im dumping some btc over the next few days...need to hedge a bit incase btc does go down.  Not dumping for fiat...gonna buy a small basket of Alts.

Sounds like a bad idea... good luck

cheers m8, plan is to buy some alts that i know will be pumped while btc is being hyped over the next few months....btc may go up by another 100% however other alts will go up by alot more giving me more btc nearer the halving... ( done this many times before , most worked out really good for me   , risky but better to be in a few coins than just btc just now)

Yes m8.... good if you particularly know which alts are going to be pumped, but overall not very safe and overall not a very good strategy for someone who either does not have luck or some kind of insider info or fine tuned trading skills.

In other words, much better to not get greedy with some random possibility of opportunity and for most folks to keep 95% or more of your crypto in bitcoin because the odds are with bitcoin and against a vast majority of the alts.  And, in this regard, many could be kicking themselves if they pull too much out of bitcoin during a period in which it could experience another exponential growth spurt - anywhere between reasonable amounts of 10% and 1,000%

[lottery248]

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hmm...
we don't see anything major yet since the crash of the chinese stock exchange. seems the site like Huobi isn't providing a legit numbers on trading price, would that affect the actual price of bitcoin?

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[wakasaki808]

china pumping!!!!

[Richy_T]

This is a test of the Blockstream emergency broadcast system. Had this been an actual blockchain emergeny you would be instructed to visit your nearest Blockstream customer service client care specialist.

This is only a test.

Yes! They do what they must because they can.

[ChartBuddy]

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[Richy_T]

Sorry I vandalize ChartBuddy the way I do. I'm a cheap prop comic.

Gotta confess, the first one put my nose a little out of joint because I took it the wrong way but I've had a chuckle out of many since and have even done one myself, I believe.

Now you have me wondering what you could do with the widget.

[ChartBuddy]

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Sorry I vandalize ChartBuddy the way I do. I'm a cheap prop comic.

Gotta confess, the first one put my nose a little out of joint because I took it the wrong way but I've had a chuckle out of many since and have even done one myself, I believe.

I like to think I give as much as I take. But I know that's what we all like to think... Anyway.

I thought I'd share this: Machines and money.

Pearls before swine, no doubt.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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