Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fatman3001]

HAPPY MAY DAY!!!

[1715368508]

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[road to morocco]

^^
The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggle!

http://s32.postimg.org/fdl5k62cl/justice.jpg

[MingLee]

until new blood shows up to kick ass and take names.

shithead miners trying to centralise through anti-competitive pricing will get what's coming to them, they pissed off the wrong guys. bitstamp is open for business.

More people will come in and try to take their own share if some people start to get themselves too involved with the whole thing.

I'm excited for more exchanges opening up that are actually decentralized, and I think this will be good in the long run.

[BOBBYZ]

Geez, everyone knows we're going to $600.

Get us up there already...

[JayJuanGee]

Geez, everyone knows we're going to $600.

Get us up there already...

Mostly we know; however, we need to make it passed the $467 to $475 price range first.  

Accordingly, we should not be getting too excited about going to $600 until we make it passed that resistance, which better case scenario could take hours to days to break or alternatively, a worser case scenario, could take another year to break...


At the moment, we have a lot of decent indicators that are pointing towards breaking the $467-$475 resistance within the shorter end of the range... with seemingly decent probabilities of within less than a month... but personally, I would not bet my house on it or leverage such a bet because it is not that "for sure" of a scenario.  On the other hand, if you don't own any bitcoin, this would not be a bad time to buy some and even take a decent stake in such purchase.

[BOBBYZ]

Agree

[USB-S]

Geez, everyone knows we're going to $600.

Mostly we know

Such a boring day, price wise.

[JayJuanGee]

Geez, everyone knows we're going to $600.

Mostly we know

Such a boring day, price wise.

I wouldn't call this boring at all compared with flat periods that we have had in the past.

We've had periods of several weeks of flat... and at the moment, there just seems to be some volatility in the midst... o.k.... maybe I am going to be wrong, and we will stay in this $446 to $456 price range for the next week...?  But I am getting the sense that there is some underlying anxiety at this particular price point, we are too close to $467... so it seems that in the coming days we gotta go either up or down in order to relieve some of that anxiety.   No?  

It has been fairly exciting for me, even though I had not seen any explosions in the past couple of days.... For example, I am kind of still recovering from our nearly 8% correction from a few days ago (down from $470 to $435), and our recovery of over half of that..., too..    Exciting!

[DaRude]

Geez, everyone knows we're going to $600.

Get us up there already...

Mostly we know; however, we need to make it passed the $467 to $475 price range first.  

Accordingly, we should not be getting too excited about going to $600 until we make it passed that resistance, which better case scenario could take hours to days to break or alternatively, a worser case scenario, could take another year to break...


At the moment, we have a lot of decent indicators that are pointing towards breaking the $467-$475 resistance within the shorter end of the range... with seemingly decent probabilities of within less than a month... but personally, I would not bet my house on it or leverage such a bet because it is not that "for sure" of a scenario.  On the other hand, if you don't own any bitcoin, this would not be a bad time to buy some and even take a decent stake in such purchase.

Longs are down $2MM in finex (29MM from the high of 31MM) but shorts are down as well. We need more fuel...

[USB-S]

Geez, everyone knows we're going to $600.

Mostly we know

Such a boring day, price wise.

I wouldn't call this boring at all compared with flat periods that we have had in the past.

We've had periods of several weeks of flat... and at the moment, there just seems to be some volatility in the midst... o.k.... maybe I am going to be wrong, and we will stay in this $446 to $456 price range for the next week...?  But I am getting the sense that there is some underlying anxiety at this particular price point, we are too close to $467... so it seems that in the coming days we gotta go either up or down in order to relieve some of that anxiety.   No?  

It has been fairly exciting for me, even though I had not seen any explosions in the past couple of days.... For example, I am kind of still recovering from our nearly 8% correction from a few days ago (down from $470 to $435), and our recovery of over half of that..., too..    Exciting!

Most of last year was floating around $250, it wasn't until winter when we had some serious movement upwards. But like you say there is definitely some anxiety in the air.


The recent correction to $435 was seen days beforehand, you could see that there was just no way we were going to breach $470. The pump just came in way too fast for it to be sustainable. Don't forget guys 9.2% per year is our target. Anything above that is unrealistic.

[JayJuanGee]

Geez, everyone knows we're going to $600.

Get us up there already...

Mostly we know; however, we need to make it passed the $467 to $475 price range first.  

Accordingly, we should not be getting too excited about going to $600 until we make it passed that resistance, which better case scenario could take hours to days to break or alternatively, a worser case scenario, could take another year to break...


At the moment, we have a lot of decent indicators that are pointing towards breaking the $467-$475 resistance within the shorter end of the range... with seemingly decent probabilities of within less than a month... but personally, I would not bet my house on it or leverage such a bet because it is not that "for sure" of a scenario.  On the other hand, if you don't own any bitcoin, this would not be a bad time to buy some and even take a decent stake in such purchase.

Longs are down $2MM in finex (29MM from the high of 31MM) but shorts are down as well. We need more fuel...

I do understand the concept of the margin long and short bets on finex and how those contribute towards fueling price surges in one direction or another, yet really they are just one factor that may not really give us a sense of price direction and readiness to go in one direction or another.

I mean we got a pretty decent price correction in the past week, and a lot of this action seems to have been taken place with relatively low trade volume levels - especially if you compare the trade volume of recent times to the August 2015 to December 2015 period.  If we don't have some significant bearwhales purposefully holding out, these low volume with continuous upward price pressures could well signify that for the most part bearwhales are running out of ammunition and they are not going to have enough coins to stop the upward momentum once it starts and once larger number of newbie FOMOs pile into the mix... really I don't know, but sometimes it seems to me as if those short and long bets on finex for example may be merely one factor that remains fairly incomplete in telling us where the price is going and with what level of intensity.  To some extent, you are saying that longs and shorts are largely unchanged (only slightly down), in spite of this recent 7.5% seemingly short-lived correction.

[Meuh6879]

http://bitcoinclock.com/

10 week, guys ...
Kick fiat account before it's too late.



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1406951.msg14273356#msg14273356








4000 USD in November 2016.

[road to morocco]

^^

Can we still make it, gentlemen? Or shall I start serving that humble pie now?
Maybe light some scented candles and cry, like we always do?
Doesn't that sound good?

http://s32.postimg.org/ueq8fytsl/Capture.gif

We blew it again, gentlemen. By a huoooghgeee margin.
How about that good cry now, Meuh6879?
BTW, I lied. No humble pie for you, not before you finish that crow that's been in the fridge since the last time you failed.

[JayJuanGee]

Don't forget guys 9.2% per year is our target. Anything above that is unrealistic.

I largely agree with the rest of what you say in your post.

I want to harp on this above highlighted point for a tiny bit. 

This 9.2% target sounds like one of the underlying theses and agreement points of the hosts of the podcast "Bitcoin Uncensored."  I think that they make a lot of good points when they argue that financial advisors cannot beat the overall performance of the stock market indices (which averages 9.2% over the long term), and investors should expect that they are doing well in their investment if they can average such a return, and they are unlikely to be able to provide long term evidence of beating such 9.2% performance.

I don't really know enough about the price performance of a large variety of budding industries (such as telephones and cars and computers), but I have my sense that when you do pick the right budding industries in which to invest (which could be the case with bitcoin that it is the right one this time and in these circumstances), you are going to get periods of exponential and irrational growth periods that exceedingly outperform any other investment, including indices. 

One of the difficulties in picking such is that we may be able to pick the right investment once in a while, but if we repeat the experiment over and over we cannot expect to continue to pick exponential growth industries on an ongoing basis. 

Anyhow, I doubt whether the 9.2% goal is realistic (I think it is too low of a goal), especially if bitcoin has another exponential growth period (like it had about 5 previous times), which is quite plausible given its currently ongoing low market cap (in comparison with its various fundamentals) which seems feasible that bitcoin is going to reasonably be able to significantly outperform 9.2% for the coming years and to perform a 10x or a 100x increase in market cap in order to become much less susceptible to volatility and manipulation... market cap growth seems like a necessity for this particular sector, whether we like it or not... 

[JayJuanGee]

^^

Can we still make it, gentlemen? Or shall I start serving that humble pie now?
Maybe light some scented candles and cry, like we always do?
Doesn't that sound good?

How about that good cry now, Meuh6879?

Winners appear to be $450 and $455, no?

[road to morocco]

...
Winners appear to be $450 and $455, no?

Yup. And you know what's funny? Someone must have voted *today,* because the number of votes (on the winning selection) has gone up by one.
*That's* how badly people need to be right

[finkelsteinMonster]

There has been too much violence... Too much pain... But I have an honorable compromise. Just walk away.
Give me your pump, the oil, the gasoline, and the whole compound, and I'll spare your lives.
Just walk away and we'll give you safe passage in the wastelands. Just walk away and there will be an end to the horror...



...hello?  ... uhm... Is this thing on?

You heard what he said! lt sounds reasonable!
We don't have to die!
All we have to do is walk away!

[r0ach]

Don't forget guys 9.2% per year is our target. Anything above that is unrealistic.

Yea, no.  This is a high risk, high reward market.  Netflix is much lower risk and look at it's chart.  Bitcoin doesn't move by 10%'s.

[AlexGR]

Don't forget guys 9.2% per year is our target. Anything above that is unrealistic.

I largely agree with the rest of what you say in your post.

I want to harp on this above highlighted point for a tiny bit.  

This 9.2% target sounds like one of the underlying theses and agreement points of the hosts of the podcast "Bitcoin Uncensored."  I think that they make a lot of good points when they argue that financial advisors cannot beat the overall performance of the stock market indices (which averages 9.2% over the long term), and investors should expect that they are doing well in their investment if they can average such a return, and they are unlikely to be able to provide long term evidence of beating such 9.2% performance.

I don't really know enough about the price performance of a large variety of budding industries (such as telephones and cars and computers), but I have my sense that when you do pick the right budding industries in which to invest (which could be the case with bitcoin that it is the right one this time and in these circumstances), you are going to get periods of exponential and irrational growth periods that exceedingly outperform any other investment, including indices.  

One of the difficulties in picking such is that we may be able to pick the right investment once in a while, but if we repeat the experiment over and over we cannot expect to continue to pick exponential growth industries on an ongoing basis.  

Anyhow, I doubt whether the 9.2% goal is realistic (I think it is too low of a goal), especially if bitcoin has another exponential growth period (like it had about 5 previous times), which is quite plausible given its currently ongoing low market cap (in comparison with its various fundamentals) which seems feasible that bitcoin is going to reasonably be able to significantly outperform 9.2% for the coming years and to perform a 10x or a 100x increase in market cap in order to become much less susceptible to volatility and manipulation... market cap growth seems like a necessity for this particular sector, whether we like it or not...  

I didn't know where the 9.2% figure came from, and was going to ask, until I read the above.

There is a fallacy in the reasoning of "9.2%" because it is applied to mainstream investments, not booming/explosive markets.

Booming/explosive markets have the characteristic where you start with a 100% monopoly of a given market and then something new comes along and starts to eat from the 100% market, gradually at 0.0000001%, 0.0001%, 0.1%, 1% etc etc. It's like being in a town where there is just one shop and then another one opens and the 100% marketshare is now starting to split. The new store, with 0% marketshare, starts experiencing "booming" growth as it rises from its 0% to 1%, to 5%, to 10%, to 20% etc.

The market, in our case, is both currencies and payment systems. We now have a decentralized and trustless alternative that enters the multi-trillion dollar market to get a slice from the centralized, trust-based / faith-based monopoly (established players owning 100% of the market).

Naturally, as the slice for bitcoin increases, the growth potential is explosive because you are starting from 0 and going upwards. Explosive/booming markets cannot be "contained" by figures like 9.2%.

The question is, what is the size of bitcoin in the larger scheme of things, where payment companies and banks have trillions in marketcap, combined global fiat (M3) is in the tens of trillions, precious metals are near 10 trillion usd, etc etc? It's nothing. It's near zero. If bitcoin gets even 0.1% of these markets, its own marketcap will be in the range of >100bn USD - a 20x increase, not a ...9% increase. Given that its a new option compared to legacy offerings, with new and different characteristics which actually cover human needs that the legacy systems cannot, this is very possible.

It sounds more "bullish" if you say BTC will go over 10.000$, but in reality it's the same thing as saying that BTC will capture 0.1% of the fiat currencies / payments market. The second sounds extremely plausible and reasonable as a target (due to its small size), the first doesn't - because people are used to its current price.

[ahpku]

< snipers >
It sounds more "bullish" if you say BTC will go over 10.000$ <snip >

Not to me it doesn't. Such visionary predictions have always proved to be too conservative, if anything

And yet there are still those who insist bitcoin enthusiasts are pathologically optimistic...

Lowered Expectations



~ time passes ~