Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

[1714744862]

1714744862

[1714744862]

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[1714744862]

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[1714744862]

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[whoreble]

Oh Adam. I'm disappoint

[Fakhoury]

any min now we'll be back above 460

And the reasons is/are ?

1 reason

supply cannot satisfy demand at this price level.

make no mistake we are headed for 520-700 territory

I only trust you in one condition, when you've consumed 1+ wine glass

[Ultrafinery]

any min now we'll be back above 460

Sergei sez:

Choo Choo, Mother Fucker

[edgar]

https://archive.is/2M5PV


bullish?

[Fakhoury]

https://archive.is/2M5PV


bullish?

Corruption is always Bullish for us

[BitChick]

Billionaire Carl Icahn thinks the stock market is going to crash.  It would be nice if he diversified into BTC.  

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-09/historic-150-net-short-position-carl-icahn-betting-imminent-market-collapse

[LegendaryMiner]

C'mon people, stop dumping it.

[Elwar]

https://archive.is/2M5PV


bullish?

I just don't understand how people like this and like Snowden seem to feel so shocked when they realize that the government is not the wonderful thing they believe it is. They only have themselves to blame for not educating themselves on the world around them.

The ramblings of the guy sound like he's watched a bunch of conspiracy YouTube videos and put it all into a single suicide letter. Everything in the letter you could get from watching Alex Jones for a week.

If he truly cared about America he would stay alive and collect evidence and expose what people don't already know instead of just parroting what people have been talking about for years. Just like how Snowden revealed a bunch of stuff that people already knew. Those that didn't know already supported what the government was doing anyway, those that did know acted like it was a big deal but they knew it already so it wasn't really a big deal. Meanwhile the guy goes and throws his life away.

[Fatman3001]

https://archive.is/2M5PV


bullish?

I just don't understand how people like this and like Snowden seem to feel so shocked when they realize that the government is not the wonderful thing they believe it is. They only have themselves to blame for not educating themselves on the world around them.

The ramblings of the guy sound like he's watched a bunch of conspiracy YouTube videos and put it all into a single suicide letter. Everything in the letter you could get from watching Alex Jones for a week.

If he truly cared about America he would stay alive and collect evidence and expose what people don't already know instead of just parroting what people have been talking about for years. Just like how Snowden revealed a bunch of stuff that people already knew. Those that didn't know already supported what the government was doing anyway, those that did know acted like it was a big deal but they knew it already so it wasn't really a big deal. Meanwhile the guy goes and throws his life away.

Paranoid ramblings ending in suicide might be a sign of mental illness (Just a thought, I'm no expert). In which case what's needed is a better mental health care system.

[machasm]

https://archive.is/2M5PV


bullish?

I just don't understand how people like this and like Snowden seem to feel so shocked when they realize that the government is not the wonderful thing they believe it is. They only have themselves to blame for not educating themselves on the world around them.

The ramblings of the guy sound like he's watched a bunch of conspiracy YouTube videos and put it all into a single suicide letter. Everything in the letter you could get from watching Alex Jones for a week.

If he truly cared about America he would stay alive and collect evidence and expose what people don't already know instead of just parroting what people have been talking about for years. Just like how Snowden revealed a bunch of stuff that people already knew. Those that didn't know already supported what the government was doing anyway, those that did know acted like it was a big deal but they knew it already so it wasn't really a big deal. Meanwhile the guy goes and throws his life away.

It can be quite difficult to 'educate' yourself when there is probably more mis-information than fact. Trying to work out what is true and what is spin in a sea of info can be extremely taxing. Besides this guy sounds like he has a mental disorder to me, not that I don't have my own suspicions of most governments.

[LegendaryMiner]

The halving is so close. 

Really excited about it...

[JayJuanGee]

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point. 

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities. 

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

[JayJuanGee]

I was sitting about 500 meters from that plane when it happened. Sounded like a low flying plane dropped a huge bomb.

Took me a few seconds to think it through and realize that the Taliban didn't have planes. Went back to playing my video game.

Had it fallen left instead of right it would've hit me.

us army?

That's who I work with.

Elwar,

I would be interested to hear you elaborate, a little bit regarding how you happened to be nearby this particular and spectacular freak event (that was caught on this video). Explain what you were doing possibly a bit of the immediate aftermath.

[JayJuanGee]

Elwar be careful man, I'm very pro bitcoin & have invested quite a lot of money (for me) but selling your house & converting the proceeds into bitcoin is a big thing.

Never go 100% in anything I say.

Yeah... I am of that same belief...  never 100%... ..There are ways to put a very high percentage without going 100% in order that you won't become as stressed over it when it goes down, which is going to happen from time to time and also happen, sometimes when you least expect it...

This bitcoin market remains very small, and there are some pretty evil forces that have a decent sized incentive to keep it down, to the extent that they can.. and even to muster up resources, at a loss, in order to engage in downward manipulation...

However, I understand that some guys have a kind of balls to the walls gambling mindset, and accordingly, they find comfort at different risk points.  Go figure.

[JayJuanGee]

any min now we'll be back above 460

And the reasons is/are ?

1 reason

supply cannot satisfy demand at this price level.

make no mistake we are headed for 520-700 territory

When?

This week?



This month?

Before the day of the halvening or potentially sometime thereafter?


I am inclined to think that we are more likely to hit $520 than $399, and maybe within a few weeks, but I think that bearwhales (financial institutions and governments) would like to keep prices down around the time of the halvening because the halvening, coupled with a pump is way too FOMO inducing...

Gosh.. let's see how this plays out.

[Fatman3001]

4 posts in a row

shouldn't those groovy mods who bravely banned our drunken master ban this prancing ninny as well?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

4 posts in a row

shouldn't those groovy mods who bravely banned our drunken master ban this prancing ninny as well?

Calling for bans is pretty bad form I think, he hasn't really done much wrong.

Price stuck in the same rut it's been in for a while, I almost miss the volatility of old.

[Fatman3001]

4 posts in a row

shouldn't those groovy mods who bravely banned our drunken master ban this prancing ninny as well?

Calling for bans is pretty bad form I think, he hasn't really done much wrong.

Price stuck in the same rut it's been in for a while, I almost miss the volatility of old.

Don't worry. JJG is down with Core. I just had a thought and it spilled out on this forum.

[JayJuanGee]

4 posts in a row

shouldn't those groovy mods who bravely banned our drunken master ban this prancing ninny as well?

Back to your white knighting bullshit, Fattyface? 

This is what you sound like:  "Oh?  I sure wished JJG wouldn't post so much because it sometimes conflicts with my viewpoints, to the extent that I am able to understand what he is saying.  Oh, oh, oh, oh, I'm fat and please someone stop him from making substantive posts because in my childish fat mind substantive posts almost feel like trolling.. especially when I don't agree with them or understand the points there in. and I don't even want to read them, because they are so diffeeeecult... help me someones... blah blah blah.. "

You act like such a fucking fat and childish whiner, and you probably have at least 10 posts of a similar substance of this one in which you seem to get distracted from some irrelevant stylish point regarding my post(s), rather than attempting to respond to any of the substance presented therein.  Maybe if you move out of the basement, you may grow up a little bit and learn more about the world, rather than getting caught up on style issues, rather than substance, no?