Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fakhoury]

After ignoring all the troll clones there is a very interesting conversation going on here. Keep it up fella's!

Believe it or not, this is what I just said to AZ over PM.

When you read a bullish convo., it makes your day

[1714708303]

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[1714708303]

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[Fakhoury]

You are most welcome my new dear friend

I extremely enjoyed how deep into economics and math you are as well as your way of thinking.

Btw, I said earlier this exact same sentence (That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death ).

What do you think about triple digit BTC value, way too much or ?

I am mostly* a follower of the Austrian economic thought, so whatever the digits are now, they are the digits right now. The market - the sum of all of the participants - is what matters. Since value is subjective, hence a mirage, it does not matter what i think, or people with real talents :-) think, if the other 99,9999% does not care, we can s*** up the coins to our...well it is digital, so we can not, but you get the picture :-D

While those who understand why Bitcoin is a paradigm shift in the social construct (hierarchical, pyramid like topography versus anarcho-capitalist, flat and voluntary - so to speak spontaneous order), the overwhelming majority prefers the "matrix of status quo" of today. Why?

1. Thinking is hard. It is, the brain can use up to 40% of calories (given that outside temperature is near body levels) taken, so it is an evolutionary instinct to act "non conscious",
2. Risk aversion /Failure aversion. It is just basic human nature, evolution taught us not to "rock the boat", for it is high risk/high reward, yet too much cortisol** (stress hormone),
3. Herd mentality: to be honest, most of the populace act as their long term female companion dictates, aka, peaceful civilizations tend to be show higher mammalian herd tendencies, like socialism - until it collapses, and rampant and uncontrolled fight began for status and power between males,
4. The need for a pastor; the herd will follow any leader who has been showing power in the past. See herd mentality, and historical figures inspiring unimaginable acts from "ordinary people".

The point is, IMHO, as ECB said before, the "marketing", human psyche has more to do with bitcoin's success than any technical detail. Do anyone has the illusion, that Mrs. Widow at the age 67, or Mr. Accountant in the cubicle knows about, or will EVER comprehend the blocksize debate? No, they will only adopt bitcoin, when they have so huge and obvious loss in comfort/utility/told by their gossip tabloid, in everyday financial interaction, that remaining in the old construct of hierarchical, top-down, command economy collapses. That is okay, they took zero effort, zero risk, so why would evolution reward them with a prize? They will not be rich, but they can continue to function in an otherwise unsustainable economic system of the today's debt based madness.

Before that, most millennials, X-gen, and the likes of us will stack up bitcoins not for everyday use by necessity, but for hardcore, sweet greedy, speculative "easy life, early retirement" life, IF we are right, i might add, but i have 0 doubts, this is math after all :-P


*I say mostly, because phenomenons evolve, and there is no absolute perfect "school of thought" in my mind.
** For the really hardcore people. this is an adequate summary of cortisol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortisol, TLDR; stress induce adrenaline production - "running from lion" - the body interprets this as a danger for life, and with adrenaline, cortisol is bound to be produced to counter balance it; decreases several key functions in response, like your immune system (IFN - interferon gamma globulin level reduced, which is kind of a natural microbe killer), by reducing B-cell response, reduced wound healing through http://www.psyneuen-journal.com/article/S0306-4530%2803%2900144-6/abstract, also messes with your glucose levels (omg am fat!). Read MFs!

I see here you perfectly elaborted what our dear centeral bank said

All what you said, as usual, I agree upon but my mind is begging me to ask in order to get the complete picture.

1. Could you please elaborate more the last part starting with "IF" until "this is math after all".

2. I'm thinking about something else now, will it be that easy to reach $5K, $10K till $250K in terms of poltical intervention and policy makers, will goverments, banks etc. keep watching Bitcoin taking over easily ?

I'm convinced with what r0ach that central banks sooner or later will buy a lot of Bitcoins as Bank of Japan is doing.

Btw, today Japan surpassed US by being the 2nd largest Bitcoin market after China.

Won't Bitcoin get cracked, not a must it's encryption, I'm talking in general.

3. Forgot the price, lets say we are now in 2025 - 2030, describe Bitcoin the escosystem, assest, currency whatever.

[AZwarel]

You are most welcome my new dear friend

I extremely enjoyed how deep into economics and math you are as well as your way of thinking.

Btw, I said earlier this exact same sentence (That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death ).

What do you think about triple digit BTC value, way too much or ?

I see here you perfectly elaborted what our dear centeral bank said

All what you said, as usual, I agree upon but my mind is begging me to ask in order to get the complete picture.

1. Could you please elaborate more the last part starting with "IF" until "this is math after all".

2. I'm thinking about something else now, will it be that easy to reach $5K, $10K till $250K in terms of poltical intervention and policy makers, will goverments, banks etc. keep watching Bitcoin taking over easily ?

I'm convinced with what r0ach that central banks sooner or later will buy a lot of Bitcoins as Bank of Japan is doing.

Btw, today Japan surpassed US by being the 2nd largest Bitcoin market after China.

Won't Bitcoin get cracked, not a must it's encryption, I'm talking in general.

3. Forgot the price, lets say we are now in 2025 - 2030, describe Bitcoin the escosystem, assest, currency whatever.

Still, no "complete picture", i am just extrapolating from my own knowledge/experience. But, short "answers" (more like speculations):

1. While the invention, or, rather the realization of how to run a trustless recorded timestamp server through decentralized consensus through PoW aka blockchain already made it into the public, and proved to be the most resilient application run by more than 1 computer at the same time connected to the internet, "the Satoshi" only made a possibility, not a certainty, not a definitive. Alas, the genie is out of the bottle, so to speak. That, and Heisenberg (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle which, apparently seems to work in the macro world as well, see https://www.ted.com/talks/jim_al_khalili_how_quantum_biology_might_explain_life_s_biggest_questions), is why it is "IF", despite math. :-)

2. There is a great speech, i can't recall which one, from Andreas Antonopoulos, where he discusses this matter (find it on youtube, either Prague, or Zürich?). The leading sentence is: "i have seen no global governmental consensus on ANYTHING" (not even on climate change, despite it might kill us all, as he adds). Or, you can learn about what happened, when the politburo banned the holding and trading of USD in the Soviet Union in the 70/80s- hint, it became the no.1 bribing instrument for citizens:-)

3. That question alone would require, 600 pages, in a book (i am working on it :-D) ). After i have spent, like 2-3 nights, whisky, patience and curiosity - as many before me - that STEM knowledge is an exponential curve, and not since the 60's, but since BC. 500- alas. Hence, the probability to foresee anything tech related is bound to diminishing returns - an inverse exponential curve , means to predict the correct path to predict future improvements shrinks exponentially.

With this in my mind, if Bitcoin, the protocol is still up and running in just 5 years, say 2020-2021, it might already have so alien applications, like an additional layer, that none of us can think off right now, delivering such humongous utility to users, that would be laughed at today, but will worth enormous economic value per entry units (=btc). Just like it was unfathomable to say video conference for FREE, in 1992's internet. Bitcoin, the network is nothing more than internet, it is like permissionless, uncensorable packet transfer from A to B IP address , but this one is also a registering public ledger of packets going from A to B, so we can tie value, because everyone has to acknowledge that we "have" that value, by the mechanisms of the blockchain.

[JayJuanGee]

We are talking about $25K - $250K in the coming decade or so without taking into considerations non mathematical elements, am I right ?

This is theory and throwing figures around. What it truly requires is people. Alot of real people. Real people take alot of convincing and they usually don't do what you want them to.

I think that these kinds of discussions of market cap and which assets are comparable in terms of utility are good, whether we be talking about theory or throwing numbers around - because in the end, we cannot know for sure how it is going to play out, but throwing out the theories and numbers can help us to view possible areas and to conceptualize what is more possible or not... and as we go along, we will continue to have to tweak our view of bitcoin and it's future based on developments in the space, whether those developments expand or contract bitcoin's actual market share, usage and utility.    $25k to $250k seems like reasonable possibilities in the coming 5-10 years - even if there may be some forces that continue to attempt to manipulate bitcoin down and to break it, possibilities of $25k to $250k seem reasonable (though certainly not inevitable - and that is where we have to account for the various forces that fight bitcoin in various ways that continue to make efforts to keep bitcoin down, and the downward force could also be explained by some attempts at downward speculation, even though downward speculation is not a complete explanation of downward price pressures, either).

[USB-S]

[r0ach]

Doesn't that usually involve a human female?

I've heard of them.

[0rganic]

After ignoring all the troll clones there is a very interesting conversation going on here. Keep it up fella's!

"Check out the brains on Brad" )

Joking aside, great post, I give credit where credit is due. It so good that I might consider
posting in this forum again.

I promise not to plagiarize any part of it in any future post that I make,
but I will refer to it, instead of using the shortened version "Sheeple."






     

[Ultrafinery]

461! This is the big one!



I'm coming to join you, Elizabeth!

[petahashminer]

hashrate skyrockets to  1.5 exahash!!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty:    191,948,646,247 (+7.44%)
Adjust time:    After 270 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,435,976,449 GH/s

incoming pump expecting.

[molecular]

what's wrong with this thread?

Further up there was a page of fruitful, interesting and polite conversation.

Am I on the wrong forum?

[ssmc2]

PUUUUUUSSSHHHHHHH

[podyx]

Everyone knows we're heading for the moon as soon as we climb.

What's the deal with just sitting around and waiting? Get us up dammit

[USB-S]

what's wrong with this thread?

Further up there was a page of fruitful, interesting and polite conversation.

Am I on the wrong forum?

Bitcoin full moon coming up.



I bet even Craig Wright is like a normal person, sometimes.

[Paashaas]

Segwitt + halving + lightning network ore other sidechains + those other bullish news from the pas 1-2 years. All of that wil trigger a new massive bull run.

Buy and ride the waves to mainstream.

There is not enough full Bitcoins for everybody, get onboard while you can!

[becoin]

Everyone knows we're heading for the moon as soon as we climb.

What's the deal with just sitting around and waiting? Get us up dammit

Margin trading means you can sell bitcoins without having a single bitcoin. Banks with unlimited access to freshly printed dollars by Fed printing press can sell bitcoins and manipulate price as they wish. It is the same price manipulation of gold and silver we see for many years. This is why derivatives books of leading banks are of gigantic proportions. This is the way it will be until corrupt fiat system collapses. And collapse will be spectacular.

[European Central Bank]

Everyone knows we're heading for the moon as soon as we climb.

What's the deal with just sitting around and waiting? Get us up dammit

Margin trading means you can sell bitcoins without having a single bitcoin. Banks with unlimited access to freshly printed dollars by Fed printing press can sell bitcoins and manipulate price as they wish. It is the same price manipulation of gold and silver we see for many years. This is why derivatives books of leading banks are of gigantic proportions. This is the way it will be until corrupt fiat system collapses. And collapse will be spectacular.

Is there a single exchange that offers margin that would ever be legit enough for a bank to have a play? I don't know of one. All the fancy ones in the US with proper licences don't offer it.

[adamstgBit]

Segwitt + halving + lightning network or other sidechains + those other bullish news from the pas 1-2 years. All of that wil trigger a new massive bull run.

i think these things are not priced in properly
with the classic vs core war that had been ( and i guess continues to ) playing out.
poeple are not so much pricing in Segwitt and LN as they are pricing in the bearish classic vs core war thing.
ex. when mike herrin rage quit saying" bitcoin is busted " that was a pretty big blow, there have been many many drops caused by this big block vs small block thing.
despite this "war" market has managed to keep its head above the water.
I really dont think the positive effects segwit +LN will have on the network have been considered by market.
once we see segwit get adopted and sundly blocks aren't crazy full anymore and useful applications of LN start being used ( ex  payment channels creating an instant way to transfer bitcoin to and from all exchanges? )
we're going to have a MASSIVE bump, possibly break ATH, and fly away.

[becoin]

Everyone knows we're heading for the moon as soon as we climb.

What's the deal with just sitting around and waiting? Get us up dammit

Margin trading means you can sell bitcoins without having a single bitcoin. Banks with unlimited access to freshly printed dollars by Fed printing press can sell bitcoins and manipulate price as they wish. It is the same price manipulation of gold and silver we see for many years. This is why derivatives books of leading banks are of gigantic proportions. This is the way it will be until corrupt fiat system collapses. And collapse will be spectacular.

Is there a single exchange that offers margin that would ever be legit enough for a bank to have a play? I don't know of one. All the fancy ones in the US with proper licences don't offer it.

There re many bitcoin exchanges that offer margin tarding. Not sure what do you mean by 'legit enough'?

[adamstgBit]

Everyone knows we're heading for the moon as soon as we climb.

What's the deal with just sitting around and waiting? Get us up dammit

Margin trading means you can sell bitcoins without having a single bitcoin. Banks with unlimited access to freshly printed dollars by Fed printing press can sell bitcoins and manipulate price as they wish. It is the same price manipulation of gold and silver we see for many years. This is why derivatives books of leading banks are of gigantic proportions. This is the way it will be until corrupt fiat system collapses. And collapse will be spectacular.

Is there a single exchange that offers margin that would ever be legit enough for a bank to have a play? I don't know of one. All the fancy ones in the US with proper licences don't offer it.

There re many bitcoin exchanges that offer margin tarding. Not sure what do you mean by 'legit enough'?

there is not enough liquidity in any of these exchanges for banks to start margin trading.

try and open 5 million$ worth of shorts, you'll drive up the cost of borrowing to astronomical levels.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

More sideways around $460? At least we survived the weekend unscathed.



It's time to get this thing movin' on up.