Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

If we break out to $10k+ very soon, we're probably not going to hold that price point for long. It would most likely lead to lower lows (sub $5k).

...because?...

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[Wekkel]

Price action has all the hall marks of a reversed BART forming.

[Ibian]

Just to be clear, are we using reversed barts and the like unironically here?

[becoin]

Who sold at the bottom?

[micgoossens]

Who sold at the bottom?

At the last bottom....? I think not to Many in here, and i Will not if there’s a new bottom, let cheap coins come to me thx in advance..... new coins are always welcome 

[Searing]

Who sold at the bottom?

At the last bottom....? I think not to Many in here, and i Will not if there’s a new bottom, let cheap coins come to me thx in advance..... new coins are always welcome  

In HODL Horde mode ..since 2015...(not to say I'm still not clueless...more like 'frozen' on indecision I guess)

You know what they say, right now BTC is either the ATL (groan) for the year.....or the ATH (also groan!) for the year..take your pick.

chump or champ....time will tell on my 2015 HODL bet. (I"m scared......hold me....heh...I crack my self up...likely because I'm cracked up)

[Torque]

OT: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/amazon-planning-8-new-alexa-devices-microwave-amplifier.html

This is getting hilariously stupid. They literally want you to have devices crammed in every orifice of your life so they can monitor and spy on you.... everywhere.

Talk about a Trojan horse. 

[eddie13]

Who sold at the bottom?

I sold a little when it looked like it wasn't going to break $10k and then I cried all the way to $20k and back down..
I don't feel too bad about it now but I would like to buy it back..

[HairyMaclairy]

Nice to see Monero back in the top ten. Could have been there for awhile mind you and I haven’t noticed.

Are you invested in monero?

I am conflicted about Monero.  I love the idea of a truly anonymous currency.  But from an investment point of view, I think their tail emissions policy is flawed.  I know it is only 0.6 XMR per block, but I feel that is enough to have a real impact on supply, meaning that Bitcoin is a far superior long term investment.  

So I watch Monero closely but don't hold any.  I had a fair stack that I sold for Bitcoin at the start of this year.  If I start to feel that Bitcoin is under threat, I might go back to holding some Monero as a hedge.  I held a stack of Monero through the Bcash debacle as a defensive hedge. 

[Ibian]

Nice to see Monero back in the top ten. Could have been there for awhile mind you and I haven’t noticed.

Are you invested in monero?

I am conflicted about Monero.  I love the idea of a truly anonymous currency.  But from an investment point of view, I think their tail emissions policy is flawed.  I know it is only 0.6 XMR per block, but I feel that is enough to have a real impact on supply, meaning that Bitcoin is a far superior long term investment.  

So I watch Monero closely but don't hold any.  I had a fair stack that I sold for Bitcoin at the start of this year.  If I start to feel that Bitcoin is under threat, I might go back to holding some Monero as a hedge.  I held a stack of Monero through the Bcash debacle as a defensive hedge. 

Far more importantly, if you have a few millions set aside and you cash them out to buy, say, a house, the taxman will show up with Questions.

Being below board is simply not worth it in the current culture.

[HI-TEC99]

Who sold at the bottom?

I sold a little when it looked like it wasn't going to break $10k and then I cried all the way to $20k and back down..
I don't feel too bad about it now but I would like to buy it back..

I doubt many of expected it to break 10k, then quickly pump up to 20k. I thought it would briefly touch 10k then crash back down again. At least you didn't buy back at a higher price than you sold at. Sell high, buy back low.

[HairyMaclairy]

Long range price forecast for balance of 2018.

[HairyMaclairy]

Nice to see Monero back in the top ten. Could have been there for awhile mind you and I haven’t noticed.

Are you invested in monero?

I am conflicted about Monero.  I love the idea of a truly anonymous currency.  But from an investment point of view, I think their tail emissions policy is flawed.  I know it is only 0.6 XMR per block, but I feel that is enough to have a real impact on supply, meaning that Bitcoin is a far superior long term investment.  

So I watch Monero closely but don't hold any.  I had a fair stack that I sold for Bitcoin at the start of this year.  If I start to feel that Bitcoin is under threat, I might go back to holding some Monero as a hedge.  I held a stack of Monero through the Bcash debacle as a defensive hedge.  

Far more importantly, if you have a few millions set aside and you cash them out to buy, say, a house, the taxman will show up with Questions.

Being below board is simply not worth it in the current culture.

I am not American so not subject to tax on my global income if I stop being a tax resident of my country of residence.  If I ever trigger a retirement event through crypto, I will just move offshore.  All perfectly legal. 

[Ibian]

Nice to see Monero back in the top ten. Could have been there for awhile mind you and I haven’t noticed.

Are you invested in monero?

I am conflicted about Monero.  I love the idea of a truly anonymous currency.  But from an investment point of view, I think their tail emissions policy is flawed.  I know it is only 0.6 XMR per block, but I feel that is enough to have a real impact on supply, meaning that Bitcoin is a far superior long term investment.  

So I watch Monero closely but don't hold any.  I had a fair stack that I sold for Bitcoin at the start of this year.  If I start to feel that Bitcoin is under threat, I might go back to holding some Monero as a hedge.  I held a stack of Monero through the Bcash debacle as a defensive hedge.  

Far more importantly, if you have a few millions set aside and you cash them out to buy, say, a house, the taxman will show up with Questions.

Being below board is simply not worth it in the current culture.

I am not American so not subject to tax on my global income if I stop being a tax resident of my country of residence.  If I ever trigger a retirement event through crypto, I will just move offshore.  All perfectly legal. 

It might be legal, in theory, now. But states always want more power and control, never less. Laws change.

[Stevenirving]

OT: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/amazon-planning-8-new-alexa-devices-microwave-amplifier.html

This is getting hilariously stupid. They literally want you to have devices crammed in every orifice of your life so they can monitor and spy on you.... everywhere.

Talk about a Trojan horse.  

We are your Corporate Overlords. Lower your shields and surrender your ships. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile.

[JayJuanGee]

Wife knows all about what I got and is cool and calm about it all and trusts me to sell when it is the right time to.

We have plans to build a new house. We bought the land back in December last year, sold enough BTC to pay for the land deposit and architect fees then, pretty much a day before the peak. It has been a long drawn out process getting planning sorted, the plans are not quite finalised yet still.

What I have in BTC is enough to build half the planned house, and so we sit and wait for it to come back up before we start building.

We currently own our current house with only a small mortgage left on it as well, so we aren't wasting rent money waiting here. Just with a toddler and a baby now, the current house is getting a bit cramped.

New house is going to be in the order of 10,000 sqft all up on a 5 acre plot.

Your purported situation comes off as if it were contrived in that you are both suggesting that you sold a large chunk of your BTC at the top of the market and that you are waiting for the BTC price to go up in order to be able to carry out the rest of the project - perhaps even short-sighted if you are planning real estate projects based on bitcoin price movements without any other cushion.

Does your wife happen to be a 10, too?   or at least a 9.3?

[JayJuanGee]

Would you prefer Proudhon?

You make me feel like this, Hairybeary:

[Hueristic]

All of this is still just noise. Wake me up if price goes below $6,00.

Fuck!
I’ll hang myself if it goes below 6 dollars

Wtf i think there Will be Many hangings if that happens.......

Right now it would actually be amusing as all the hangings would be on Wall Street!

Everyone here would just buy M0ar!

Something similar already happened in 2011 when gox got hacked, and Bitcoin crashed to one cent each. The price went back up afterwards and 2011 hodlers are now rich. If it goes below $6 I'll be simultaneously buying and crying.

LOL, the Crying Buy! Do we have a Meme for that?

Reminds me of the Crying call in poker.

I had to make one for a grand last week when the board went runner runner straight on my set.

[JayJuanGee]

These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).

I like your analysis generally. 

Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.

Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.


'Baby Winter'  :  could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.

Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.

You would not presume that I would not quibble a bit with the tension in what you are saying, here,  which seems to be referring to: 1) a variation of possible outcomes and 2) your seeming contrasting of a "baby winter" versus a "full winter" as if those were the only two scenarios.

Your statements seems to in tension.. hahahahahaha

relieve the tension... relieve the tension.




In that regard, it seems to me that there are a lot of scenario variants in between the 1) "bottom is in" versus the 2) "bottom is in the $2k-$3k arena.   Even though one or the other scenario might be the most likely of scenarios, merely because another scenario might be less likely would not reasonably conclude that the less likely variant would NOT end up being the outcome (which plays well into the nobody knows idea, even while perhaps being able to agree on scenarios that are more likely but don't end up playing out even while they are more likely). 

[toknormal]

It appears big players are accumulating. It's only the small ones that are selling.

OBV is giving a contrary indication to EMA price moving averages and has been on an uptrend since late March.