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Question: Jan. 31 Closing Price:
<$3,000 - 7 (10.1%)
$3,000-$3,200 - 2 (2.9%)
$3,200-$3,400 - 6 (8.7%)
$3,400-$3,600 - 11 (15.9%)
$3,600-$3,800 - 4 (5.8%)
$3,800-$4,000 - 7 (10.1%)
$4,000-$4,200 - 9 (13%)
$4,200-$4,400 - 4 (5.8%)
$4,400-$4,600 - 1 (1.4%)
$4,600-$4,800 - 2 (2.9%)
$4,800-$5,000 - 2 (2.9%)
>$5,000 - 14 (20.3%)
Total Voters: 69

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20978786 times)
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d_eddie
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September 18, 2018, 03:51:02 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 10:41:14 AM by d_eddie
Merited by dbshck (2), JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

"Going short" means using margin, right?
More or less, yes.

Quote
Is there a way to still be a day trader without using margin?  
It's not a sharp yes/no matter, using margin. What actually matters is the leverage. If you're positioned below 1:1 margin, you're actually not "using margin" as common sense understands it.

If, unrealistically, you went short at 1:10 (0.1x leverage), that would mean using nominal 10$ chips each actually worth just 1$. Leverage under 1x can be considered a "negative" money multiplier because the money amount gets shrunk rather than blown up.

What realistically happens most of the time is positive leverage, like 1.2:1, 2:1 or 5:1. (1.2x, 2x, 5x). Or even 100:1, for that matter. In the latter case, you play with 1$ chips actually worth 100$. Null leverage means 1:1, because it's the neutral muliplier: "no multiply, no margin".

Quote
So, if you are trader that does NOT use margin, then that would be selling, right now.  Either way (using margin to bet on down or selling right now), does not seem good to me.  But what do I know?  especially when it comes to profitably playing the dynamics of margin?

Using your play money to short with negative, null or slightly positive leverage can help you hedge your stash. You take a hit on your stash when the corn goes down, but you are rewarded on your play money if you cash out your short. A little sugar on the pill. A penny for your pain. I've been doing this a lot and I still am. Little bites here and there, but they do add up.

Of course, you have to let go of the short (probably using a stop loss order) if it begins losing too much. Hopefully, it will only be a dent in your overal profit made of little bites. The corn stole your last bite of play money profit, but that means your stash is growing in value again.

Once again, it's about finding a system that works for you. Setting your stops straight can help. At what price do I cash out? At what price do I give up and write the short off at a loss? By reserving major tweaking for special situations, you can get the luxury of carelessness, since you know your best and worst outcomes in advance.

Learn, rinse, repeat. Each learning session costs. Receivng lessons at bargain prices is quite valuable.
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Paashaas
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September 18, 2018, 03:52:29 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

in 2010 $BTC +700%

in 2010 $BTC -65%, followed by +540%

in 2011 $BTC -48%, followed by +5500%

in 2011 $BTC -93%, followed by +12800%

in 2013 $BTC -81%, followed by +1600%

in 2014 $BTC -86%, followed by +12600%

in 2018 $BTC -75%, followed by...

Just buy and Hodl, the road to $100k and beyond will be bumpy but glorious.
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September 18, 2018, 04:11:09 AM
Merited by dbshck (1), Totscha (1), d_eddie (1)

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  
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September 18, 2018, 04:59:48 AM

in 2010 $BTC +700%

in 2010 $BTC -65%, followed by +540%

in 2011 $BTC -48%, followed by +5500%

in 2011 $BTC -93%, followed by +12800%

in 2013 $BTC -81%, followed by +1600%

in 2014 $BTC -86%, followed by +12600%

in 2018 $BTC -75%, followed by...

Just buy and Hodl, the road to $100k and beyond will be bumpy but glorious.

Let's see what happens  Grin
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September 18, 2018, 05:36:39 AM

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  

Don't let facts interfere with a good story.

Sincerely,
EVERY marketing person EVER
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September 18, 2018, 08:54:42 AM


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September 18, 2018, 09:01:15 AM




CNBC Reverse Bitcoin Price Indicator - pump incoming?
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September 18, 2018, 09:12:43 AM

I read on whalepool that shorts were ATH again.  Haven't bothered checking it for myself yet. 
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September 18, 2018, 09:16:45 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 09:26:59 AM by crypmike
Merited by mfort312 (1)

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  

indeed, I even have a pic for this



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September 18, 2018, 09:21:24 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (2), Wekkel (1), kurious (1)




CNBC Reverse Bitcoin Price Indicator - pump incoming?

You can also use this website to understand the dip and the top of the price

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

1 means max. fear
100 means max. greed.

For ex. look at the 6th of February. the index point is 8. very close to max. fear (which is 1) and the BTC was at the dip. at the 7th of February the trend change.
21th of February. The index point is 74 close to max greed. the price is at the top. At the 22th of February the trend change.
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September 18, 2018, 09:32:03 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 10:07:59 AM by toknormal
Merited by bones261 (4), BobLawblaw (4), dbshck (3), HairyMaclairy (2), Wekkel (1), Majormax (1), Torque (1), kurious (1), infofront (1), rolling (1), mfort312 (1)

I read on whalepool that shorts were ATH again.  Haven't bothered checking it for myself yet.  

How much can the tail wag the dog ?

It's interesting to watch the relationship between the bitcoin cash settled markets and the spot market. Many observers - mainly gold trader pundits - are assuming that the derivative markets will "control" the spot market in Bitcoin the way it does in gold. However, I think it should not be as simple as that, at least in theory.

The main reason this happens in gold is because the underlying asset's inability to "travel through wires" has forced almost comprehensive decoupling of the two fundamental aspects of the trade - ownership and posession. In gold, only ownership is traded which means almost the ENTIRE volume is accounted for by the paper market and there's very little "anchor" in the physical because nobody actually takes posession. (Why would they). Even people who say they hold "physical" gold don't really. They hold custodial contracts which are not much better than a futures contract.

The question is: how much can the bitcoin cash settled markets influence the spot market ? That is the question.

The margin-traded derivatives markets such as CME and CBOE can make money on the way up as well as the way down. They don't care which direction the price goes in. On the other hand, the spot market generally does since "hodlers" are always long. If we look at the last 6 months trading at the longer ranges we can see how margin trading has "milked the bubble in the spot market. It blew the bubble in the latter half of 2017, then burst it right when the cash-settled markets opened, then "milked it in a zig-zag pattern on the way down.



The limits of the margin traded rollercoaster

However look what's happening over time. The amplitude of the zig-zag is waning. There's less mileage in margin trading with every drop. Also, it's settling right at the level "Wall Street" had accumulated to at the opening of the futures markets late last year. As far as I can see, this means that recourse to the spot market is going to be required once again to repeat this process and indeed we can see accumulation going on if we "look through" the price trace to the underlying volume pattern which has been to the upside almost since last March.


OBV contrary indication when compared with price trace EMA

Returning to the comparison with precious metals and the question of how "anchored" the underlying asset is compared with its derivative trading, as far as I can tell, around 0.5% (90k BTC) of the bitcoin supply actually moves each day. To match this, around 1000 Tones of gold would have to be physically traded. i.e. not just ownership is exchanged but possession as well. That's $42 Billion of gold.

Given that around $200 Billion is not an unusual daily traded volume, I doubt the physical movements would be anywhere near the $42B.

That's why I don't think the Bitcoin cash settled markets have anywhere near the influence over the spot price that we think they have and certainly not the same influence that gold derivatives markets have over their underlying asset price.

Another way to look at it is simply how much the market devalues a monetary asset based on its sub-optimal monetary properties - one of which is mobility (physical liquidity). With precious metals, their inability to travel through wires has lead to a decoupling of the paper market from the physical in the sense that possession and ownership are traded independently of each other. That in turn has lead to a devaluation and sub-optimal performance of the asset in its traditional role - hedging against inflation of the fiat monetary base for example.

Liberating the "Underlying"

Crypto, on the other hand is liquid in electronic markets. A far higher portion of the coin supply is traded in the sense of possession remaining with ownership. This puts cash-settled markets at a disadvantage because they are "outside the loop"in a way that they aren't with gold.



How is this Possible ?

It basically comes down to the feature widely known as "public-private key cryptology". If we superimpose the model of bitcoin on gold, both public and private keys are co-incident. That means we need custodial services because gold hodlers cannot allow the metal to leave their posession and still retain control over it.

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and still be under the control of the owner. Public and private keys are decoupled. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.
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September 18, 2018, 10:06:25 AM

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September 18, 2018, 10:08:30 AM


Crypto, on the other hand is liquid in electronic markets. A far higher portion of the coin supply is traded in the sense of possession remaining with ownership. This puts cash-settled markets at a disadvantage because they are "outside the loop"in a way that they aren't with gold.



How is this Possible ?
It basically comes down to the feature widely known as "public-private key cryptology". If we superimpose the model of bitcoin on gold, both public and private keys are co-incident. That means we need custodial services because gold hodlers cannot allow the metal to leave their posession and still retain control over it.

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and be under the control of the owner. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.


This is the key to the attractiveness of digital currency.  The downside is that an owner has to take responsibility for their own security.

With a custodial service, there is an insurance/assurance that the registered owner cannot have the asset stolen, without compensation from the custodian. Disenfranchisement can only come from the contract terms, or failure of the custodian.
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yeah,well you know that's just like your opinion


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September 18, 2018, 10:26:51 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 10:51:35 AM by micgoossens

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%. 



good view hairy.... good math  Wink
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yeah,well you know that's just like your opinion


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September 18, 2018, 10:46:21 AM



just read this funny post .... a guy said time to buy the fucking dip!!

repeatedly saying this while contnuously smashing my head against the wall .......

haha i think many actualy telling and posting to BTFD's etc but really don't act themselves (just posting to get a good feeling or something)
 Grin .  some of the post are hilarious
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September 18, 2018, 11:05:08 AM



Scenario for a positive trend, early October. Specifically 03/10 - 05/10 set the peak $9000/1BTC

This scenario is feasible when BTC passes $7200 and has a stable btc around $5800 - $6000


What is the opinion of people?

This is a chart I have identify over a month ago, and now is in the middle of September. Current BTC price is above $6000
So this prediction could happen in October next?
Everyone please give your opinion?
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September 18, 2018, 11:17:13 AM

EOS is on the edge
placed right on the bottom trendline + H&S


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yeah,well you know that's just like your opinion


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September 18, 2018, 11:23:23 AM
Merited by bones261 (2), LFC_Bitcoin (1), mindrust (1)

GOOD POINT



AND @ THE MEANTIME


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September 18, 2018, 11:25:07 AM



Scenario for a positive trend, early October. Specifically 03/10 - 05/10 set the peak $9000/1BTC

This scenario is feasible when BTC passes $7200 and has a stable btc around $5800 - $6000


What is the opinion of people?

This is a chart I have identify over a month ago, and now is in the middle of September. Current BTC price is above $6000
So this prediction could happen in October next?
Everyone please give your opinion?

 I don't know why they call it the bat/butterfly/crab; I only ever see bikini tops.


micgoossens
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yeah,well you know that's just like your opinion


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September 18, 2018, 11:47:18 AM

12288 getting shorter and shorter

08/09/2018 xhomerx10 Sad
09/09/2018 vapourminer Sad
11/09/2018 Dakustaking76 Sad
20/09/2018 Digigami
22/09/2018 Agapios
26/09/2018 itod
30/09/2018 DeathAngel
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             

this list getting REKT as well pffff time to get some action  Roll Eyes

and another one bites the dust who's the favorite on this one ??        really don't know where i would think the winner stands in here maybe bitserve, globbo, V8 range.... don't let it be yefi or samson or fortune143 for the SMALL 12k price to hit  Roll Eyes what a boring time would that be

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