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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25529783 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
leetlezee
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October 09, 2018, 09:45:27 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), RejectedBanana (1)

Here's an excerpt from the second link provided by mfort a few posts above.

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

Quote from: newsbtc
When Will it Show on Bitcoin Price?

If institutional investors are acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin in the OTC market, it should have a noticeable impact on the cryptocurrency exchange market and the price movement of major digital asssets.

However, over the past two months, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated stability and struggled to initiate large movements on the upside.

As Circle, Coinbase, BitGo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and other major financial institutions that either have already launched crypto-focused custodian solutions or plan to offer crypto custody in the short-term begin to serve an increasing number of institutional investors in the months to come, investors expect the value of cryptocurrencies to increase accordingly.
The question in the subtitle has been left unanswered in the article, but my reasonable guess is "probably well before the halvening".

Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes.

But we should remember that institutional investors also suffer from greed and FOMO, and if there's investors wanting to buy more than the amount of BTC currently being available to purchase OTC is where we will see their purchases encroaching on the traditional markets, and then we will see the increase in price. So when will this happen? ::shrug:: Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.
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October 09, 2018, 09:52:25 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If we can hold the $6k floor through to the end of January, then it’s on like Donkey Kong.
afbitcoins
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October 09, 2018, 09:52:42 PM

wasnt it a 6510 in the VIC20. it had added some dedicated i/o pins vs the 6502 or something IIRC.

or maybe that was just the C64.. i had both.

fun times but i got more into the TRS-80 line with CP/M and such after.
The 6510 was in the C64. I remember doing a fair bit of assembly and FORTH on the Vic-20, it could do a good bit with what you had. First computer was a TRS80 Model 1 Level 1. I still remember the game "Termites" followed by the game "Introduction to programming".

Wonder about first computers for people here.


i think a nintendo or something..... but my first computer i really use ... is from when i got my first BTC's so as you see and know i come from very very VERY far and still have an extreme far way to go when it comes to computers  Roll Eyes

but i got good guy's around me last years  Grin

My cousin got a ZX81 it had 1K memory. 1 K!!! We typed in the code to run games on it from magazines. It didn't have sound, or colours. Good times though. Showing my age. Ha. My first was the Acorn Electron. I wanted a C64 but my parents  thought the Electron would be more educational. It was a pretty cool computer in its way though. I grew to be a fan. Programming on that as a hobby eventually morphed into my profession
d_eddie
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October 09, 2018, 09:57:52 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Quote
Any sound investment should plan to budget in such a way that prepares for the down...
Hedging with shorts?  Wink

You are likely razzing me, because you know that I don't really believe in playing around with margin.
Just a little teasing on the surface. I actually think margin trading, used wisely, is a powerful tool. Used unwisely, it's a powerful tool as well, but as with any power tool, you risk your fingers or worse if you don't know your way around it...

Quote
Even for very smart people, have troubles with the more basic strategies, so I would not recommend playing with margin/or leverage until after the person has developed a decently strong basic game, first.
... however, as with any power tool, there are a bunch of safety rules that can be followed to minimize the risk of injuries while still being able to exploit the power. Imagine cutting logs with a wood axe because that electric saw is just too dangerous.

I actually find some form of leveraged trading to be an aid in restraining the inherent gambler inside. Make a plan, work out the best/worst/most likely outcome, play out. No room for clumsy impulse actions once you've set up an involved series of moves. I agree it's not for everyone, though. I don't like welders and their paraphernalia, for example, so I will gladly use the services of a pro whenever I'm in need.

Quote
And, even in bitcoin, the historical degree of volatility might justify that leveraging and/or margin trading is NOT necessary because the returns can be incredibly stupendous with a mere basic accumulation game that does not involve such additional skills and strategies that may just end up greatly increasing the odds for folks to end up losing in what seems to be an otherwise highly probable winning game.
When the trend is down, if there are no fiat reserves to accumulate moar, there's not much to be done by the accumulate-and-hodl investor. That strategy only pays out in bull markets. This might tickle the inner gambler to "poke his stash with a stick", so to say, which is a dangerous game. On the other hand, a plan with pre-calculated possible gains and losses is a way to grow one's stash even in bear markets, with a limited penalty in case of failure.

In the end, and I think we agree on this, it's all about finding a system that works for oneself.
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October 09, 2018, 10:02:02 PM


... ZX81 ...

Jetpack!
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October 09, 2018, 10:03:23 PM

d_eddie
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October 09, 2018, 10:10:50 PM
Merited by RejectedBanana (1)

Here's an excerpt from the second link provided by mfort a few posts above.

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

Quote from: newsbtc
When Will it Show on Bitcoin Price?

If institutional investors are acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin in the OTC market, it should have a noticeable impact on the cryptocurrency exchange market and the price movement of major digital asssets.

However, over the past two months, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated stability and struggled to initiate large movements on the upside.

As Circle, Coinbase, BitGo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and other major financial institutions that either have already launched crypto-focused custodian solutions or plan to offer crypto custody in the short-term begin to serve an increasing number of institutional investors in the months to come, investors expect the value of cryptocurrencies to increase accordingly.
The question in the subtitle has been left unanswered in the article, but my reasonable guess is "probably well before the halvening".

Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes.
When I said "probably well before the halvening", I was thinking along the following lines.

Lately, volume on traditional exchanges has been ridiculously low. I think this might not be tightly connected with shark buyers going OTC; they have been doing things that way for a while already. The issue is small fish losing interest, patience, fiat money, or all of the above. As soon as all these things build back up, exchange prices must inevitably get a push. Any sign of a bull market will likely trigger a wave of small fish FOMO that will impact prices for all to see, including MSM. Which will likely create some feedback loop and we'll be back to late 2017 scenarios.

Quote
Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.
So, who calls him? Will you or should I?  Tongue
afbitcoins
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October 09, 2018, 10:12:47 PM


Yeah man,  that was the spectrum. Great game !
d_eddie
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October 09, 2018, 10:16:51 PM

If we can hold the $6k floor through to the end of January, then it’s on like Donkey Kong.

...and if we can't, a conservative short might be the ticket.
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October 09, 2018, 10:19:57 PM

if schmif
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October 09, 2018, 10:21:50 PM
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October 09, 2018, 10:23:15 PM

if schmif

Obviously.
leetlezee
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October 09, 2018, 10:26:16 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2018, 10:45:04 PM by leetlezee
Merited by infofront (1), d_eddie (1), RejectedBanana (1)

Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes.
When I said "probably well before the halvening", I was thinking along the following lines.

Lately, volume on traditional exchanges has been ridiculously low. I think this might not be tightly connected with shark buyers going OTC; they have been doing things that way for a while already. The issue is small fish losing interest, patience, fiat money, or all of the above. As soon as all these things build back up, exchange prices must inevitably get a push. Any sign of a bull market will likely trigger a wave of small fish FOMO that will be impact prices for all to see, including MSM. Which will likely create some feedback loop and we'll be back to late 2017 scenarios.

Quote
Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.
So, who calls him? Will you or should I?  Tongue

I'd call Jamie Dimon, but I think he blocked my number due to my efforts to call out his BS in 2017.  Roll Eyes

I agree, retail interest in Bitcoin is very low right now, which gives the sharks plenty of room to swim without interference. But once we see some news that spikes enough people's interest, the domino effect will take place like in 2017:

  • Institutional investors quietly buying Bitcoin...
  • Some announcement drives decent interest in buying Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin price goes ^
  • "Bitcoin Bull Run Again?" in news cycle
  • People start FOMO and buy BTC
  • Bitcoin price goes ^^
  • More news cycles about Bitcoin "Bitcoin Goes on a Real Tear This Time, Will We See $1,000,000? Jamie Dimon Says Yes"
  • More people FOMO buy
  • Bitcoin price ^^^
  • News cycles go wild, your grandma sees it and calls you to ask you to help her buy Bitcoin
  • Institutional investors taking profit $$
  • Bitcoin price ---
  • People tell themselves this is consolidation before more ^^^
  • Institutional investors finish taking profit $$$, start shorting
  • Bitcoin price \/
  • People say, "just people taking a little profit before hitting the REAL bull run"
  • Bitcoin price \/\/
  • People start getting a little worried about a repeat, not buying any more
  • Institutional investors get busy shorting
  • Bitcoin price \/\/\/
  • People start reverse FOMO, selling all their holdings
  • Bitcoin price \/\/\/\/\/
  • Institional investors cashing in shorts... $$$$$$$
  • Retail investors lose their shorts
  • Bitcoin bottoms and cycle starts all over again
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October 09, 2018, 10:35:33 PM


Bitcoin

chart

Indicators are exactly in the middle. Bitcoin trying to bust out the thin end of a wedge. I like the upside more than the downside. Everything getting too tight. Big moves coming?
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October 09, 2018, 10:35:53 PM
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fixed that for you

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October 09, 2018, 10:40:43 PM


Thank you, good manual turned out! Cool
afbitcoins
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October 09, 2018, 10:49:53 PM


The first version made me laugh more
StartupAnalyst
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October 09, 2018, 10:54:56 PM

The first version is a brief description of my investment in 2018! Grin Grin
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October 10, 2018, 12:00:13 AM


Bitcoin

chart

Indicators are exactly in the middle. Bitcoin trying to bust out the thin end of a wedge. I like the upside more than the downside. Everything getting too tight. Big moves coming?

It is coming past few weeks   Undecided

Still waiting
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October 10, 2018, 12:04:37 AM

ICO market is dead. Probably now it's the right time to invest

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