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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26366010 times)
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crypmike
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October 13, 2018, 11:43:19 PM



https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1051170248144113664
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Last of the V8s
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October 13, 2018, 11:50:17 PM

looks impressive, but it's in increasingly worthless fiat. weekly is ~300 btc
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October 13, 2018, 11:52:07 PM



am guilty of a few ^ Angry
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October 14, 2018, 12:06:23 AM



am guilty of a few ^ Angry

Oh cool I only got the superhero one and the drugs one. ironically both are connected.
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October 14, 2018, 12:06:42 AM

looks impressive, but it's in increasingly worthless fiat. weekly is ~300 btc

ye, its difficult to buy BTC in USD if your national money depreciated 99.99 %  Undecided

can't even imagine it
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October 14, 2018, 12:10:27 AM
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Ethereum Hard Fork Test Goes Awry, “No Constantinople In 2018” Developer Says


https://ethereumworldnews.com/ethereum-hard-fork-test-goes-awry-no-constantinople-in-2018-developer-says/
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October 14, 2018, 12:32:46 AM


According to Wekkel, Roach has a Lambo, supposedly.


I meant to refer to micgoossens, my bad. Mobile phones aren't all that....  Roll Eyes

Oh?   Seems that I misread regarding which one is currently sporting a lambo.

So, if it is Micpeep with the Lambo, I wouldn't have thought that micpeep would be in Lambo territory until about $75k plus.. .perhaps?     I am not saying that he could not afford one now, but I am assuming a kind of multi-millionaire status before a Lambo becomes part of an arguably reasonable fabric rather than a show-off piece that stretches the budget because the "owner" can barely afford it.

Maybe I missed some evidentiary posts in that direction?
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October 14, 2018, 02:10:29 AM


[edited out]

Very well said! I understand the technology, of course, and I am confident that my savings (which quadrupled thanks to Bitcoin) can go over $1mil one day. For now they are enough only for a small house or a nice new car.

Actually, if you have been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin since some time before you registered your BTC talk account, you have had a relatively "modest amount" that you could use to buy into bitcoin without gambling too much, you did not accumulate BTC or largely establish your BTC stake yet or even in the sub $1k territory, and you made various mistakes along the way, which is merely human, I can understand how it is possible that you have established a decent stake in bitcoin relative to the vast majority of folks who have not established any kind of bitcoin position, but you still feel that you are far from any kind of point that you could rely on BTC to maintain a passive income (based on your lifestyle expectations). 

Any investment can take a long fucking time to establish, and if you have a possible cushion of 15 years (even though perhaps you prefer a shorter amount of time, such as 5 years) you are likely still going to be much better off than any kind of average or traditional investment(s), given the likely places where bitcoin is going to go.

Many traditional investment will allow you to earn a decent return, between 4%  and 12% per year, with a large number of folks returning on the low end of that range.  Bitcoin is likely to perform much better.  I had accumulated a decent amount of wealth before bitcoin from my investments; however, I believe that my average annual return was still only about 5.5%, even though I felt that I did pretty well, overall.   


I have an appartment and a VW CC, so for now I don't need cash.

Well having a cashflow that covers all of your expenses for the next few years remains important in deciding how much you can afford to invest (assuming that you might be inclined to max out some of the bitcoin on the front end based on your optimism of it while continuing to have your living expenses covered for decent periods of time out into the future with an income stream that is quasi-reliable).  We already should realize that living within your means remains important and such practices seem prudent in bitcoin too, even though it is also possible to leverage (but to me, leveraging – such as getting loans to invest in bitcoin, seems too greedy and unnecessary with the likely level of BTC returns)

The last year for me was more nervous because of the uncertainty of the forks. But now I am absolutely confident that Bitcoin is here to stay (even if traitors like Ver and Wu tried to steal the project one way or another, Bitcoin ramained what it is meant to be).

Actually, several of us seem to recognize a certain level of profundity in the bitcoin world in terms of the resolutions that were shown both in early 2017 with the beginning of the breaking past the previous ATH, and then in mid-to-late 2017 when the hardfork attacks (and other governance attacks) seemed to had fallen on their face - with even worse attempts at trying to hold the forks and attacks together with various failed spam and FUD spreading attacks that did not even stop segwit from going into place and lightning network going into a live testing mode (rather than staying on testnet for a longer period of time).

With the coming bakkt and ETF in 1-2 years tops, Bitcoin will remain the first blockchain currency (and Wall Street exchange asset), so its value will never stop rising.

The financialization of bitcoin has been increasing and increasing and increasing and sometimes even on the lowdown with some institutions likely attempting to acquire bitcoin because of fundamental aspects of bitcoin – and such behind the scenes accumulation seem to be very much in the background and seem to be building in bitcoin's favor, even if there remain attempts to spread FUD or even the froth in the alt coin space having some negative dragging affect on bitcoin’s price and confusion about which crypto is the place in which money is flowing - while many of us who understand bitcoin can see past some of the snake oilsmanship that is taking place and the flaws of some of these diversion projects - icos built on ethereum, and even diversions of stable coins that are ultimately flow into bitcoin, since bitcoin is the only crypto that is really sound money in terms of not printing money out of the air, like almost every other project with its own coin devolves into.

Of course, I am not delusional. There will be dips and sideways and it will be tough to hold at those moments.

Exactly correct to prepare for the dips and sideways and even prepare for long periods with possible extreme movements that seem to be keeping BTC price below fundamentals...   which is not wanted but within the realm of possibilities that BTC price manipulators are going to manipulate the price and sentiments downwards as low and as long as they are capable of doing.

Speaking of predictions, I have 3 variants for the next 7 years (after 2 halvings).
1. The bearish one: In 2-3 years the price will revisit the 20K range. In 6-7 years it will reach $40-50K.
2. The mild bullish:  In 2-3 years: 40K. In 6-7 years it will reach $100K.
3. The most bullish:  In 2-3: 100K. In 6-7 years it will reach $500K.

I hope for the best but I can live with scenario 1. In 6 years I will still have 15 years to retirement, so I need only to buy moar and hold.

I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.
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October 14, 2018, 03:59:21 AM

Ethereum Hard Fork Test Goes Awry, “No Constantinople In 2018” Developer Says


https://ethereumworldnews.com/ethereum-hard-fork-test-goes-awry-no-constantinople-in-2018-developer-says/

Asness (see Bloomberg's article below):

“You can have a committee of 10 geniuses that proves collectively to be a moron.”

This is EXACTLY what I felt when eth honchos started to arbitrarily decide the economic parameters of ethereum. It can't end up well, eventually.

Bloomberg source "The Next Financial Crisis Is Staring Us in the Face"
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-08/the-next-financial-crisis-is-staring-us-in-the-face
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October 14, 2018, 05:33:26 AM

Bloomberg source "The Next Financial Crisis Is Staring Us in the Face"
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-08/the-next-financial-crisis-is-staring-us-in-the-face

There's not really a "next" financial crisis if the real unemployment rate doubled after 2008 and never went down.
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October 14, 2018, 06:15:35 AM



am guilty of a few ^ Angry

What is this nonsense?
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October 14, 2018, 06:39:24 AM


According to Wekkel, Roach has a Lambo, supposedly.


I meant to refer to micgoossens, my bad. Mobile phones aren't all that....  Roll Eyes

Oh?   Seems that I misread regarding which one is currently sporting a lambo.

So, if it is Micpeep with the Lambo, I wouldn't have thought that micpeep would be in Lambo territory until about $75k plus.. .perhaps?     I am not saying that he could not afford one now, but I am assuming a kind of multi-millionaire status before a Lambo becomes part of an arguably reasonable fabric rather than a show-off piece that stretches the budget because the "owner" can barely afford it.

Maybe I missed some evidentiary posts in that direction?


via Imgflip Meme Generator

Seems like you missed that one .....
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October 14, 2018, 06:41:58 AM


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October 14, 2018, 06:48:44 AM



via Imgflip Meme Generator
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October 14, 2018, 07:27:11 AM
Last edit: October 14, 2018, 09:40:37 AM by micgoossens
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Sunday very early morning for the amount of alcohols i have consumed  Roll Eyes

MY girl still knock out of it.

Me, while waiting cause still beeing @ the hotel....

via Imgflip Meme Generator

And sunday sober up is starting...

One thing is fore sure , no alcohol till next weekend for damn sure .
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October 14, 2018, 07:27:49 AM

I love guinness, but never out of a bottle. The only way its meant to be drunk is draught from a keg. Or at least a can with one of those little balls.

Cheers.

Nonsense. That pseudo-draught widget can bullshit is just a scam.

It isn't real live draught. Its pasteurized canned beer with a CO2 injection system. Not only that, it's only 4.2% alc/vol as is a real keg of Guinness draught.

Guinness Extra Stout varies from 5-7% alc/vol depending on where it's brewed. I prefer 5%.

Guinness is brewed all around the world. If I'm in Ireland I'll drink Irish-brewed Guinness. In Ontario, I'll drink Guinness brewed with Ontario water.
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October 14, 2018, 09:00:19 AM

jesus jimbo

when do you sleep man?
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October 14, 2018, 09:22:50 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

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October 14, 2018, 09:25:09 AM

jesus jimbo

when do you sleep man?

junglemen don't sleep
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October 14, 2018, 09:27:19 AM

12288$$$$

12/10/2018 IntroVert Sad
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             


and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one
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