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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25528952 times)
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crypmike
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October 09, 2018, 02:18:08 PM



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October 09, 2018, 02:59:58 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Recently, I've noticed a small but perhaps significant sentiment change. Bitmex bitcoin futures are now priced above the swap (which mimics and tracks spot index price). They've been under it for over a month up to approximately last Friday. Bullish (short term and mildly).
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October 09, 2018, 03:36:54 PM

Do they know about segwit transactions? :-)
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October 09, 2018, 03:45:56 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2018, 04:20:43 PM by bitserve
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Do they know about segwit transactions? :-)

Maybe they don't even know about the forks/airdrops that forced everyone to move ALL their coins to claim them nor many other factors that were happening during that time (spam, ridiculous FOMO, etc).... Or they do and they just don't care because the only thing that matters is the dramatic headline.
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October 09, 2018, 03:57:03 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), xyzzy099 (1)

Well. Drinking is back on the menu, men.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/bitcoin-on-the-brink-of-an-implosion-researcher-juniper-says

Quote
Crypto Industry on ‘Brink of an Implosion,’ Researcher Says
By Olga Kharif
October 9, 2018, 9:25 AM CDT

Echoing sentiments of mainstream economists, Juniper Research is warning that many of the metrics in the cryptocurrency world are pointing to a market implosion.

Industry bellwether Bitcoin had seen its daily transaction volumes fall from an average of around 360,000 a day in late 2017 to just 230,000 in September 2018. Meanwhile, daily transaction values were down from more than $3.7 billion to less than $670 million in the same period, Juniper said in the study, The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Trends & Challenges 2018-2023.


The market as a whole has contracted quickly as well. In the first quarter, cryptocurrency transactions totaled just over $1.4 trillion, compared with less than $1.7 trillion for 2017 as a whole, Juniper said. However, by the second quarter, transaction values had plummeted by 75 percent, with total market capitalization falling to just under $355 billion.

"Based on activity during the first half of Q3, Juniper estimates a further 47 percent quarter-on-quarter drop in transaction values in that quarter," the researcher said in an accompanying white paper.

The market failed to rally even amid strained China-U.S. trade relations and Brexit-related troubles, the researchers noted -- prime conditions for proving cryptocurrencies’ advantage as an alternative to the traditional financial system.

"In short, given our concerns around both the innate valuation of Bitcoin, and of the operating practices of many exchanges, we feel that the industry is on the brink of an implosion," Juniper said.

Wanted to read the actual paper....

£1250 for the actual research paper.... As a physicist myself. I can tell you guys this: Just contact the researcher personally and just ask for the paper. He/she will gladly give it to you for free. Researchers usually never even get paid a penny from publishers and publishers usually demand idiotic prices.

Author of the paper is Windsor Holden. https://www.linkedin.com/in/windsor-holden-ba9765/?originalSubdomain=uk
have fun.
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October 09, 2018, 04:56:42 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1), El duderino_ (1), BobLawblaw (1), xyzzy099 (1)

Do they know about segwit transactions? :-)

Maybe they don't even know about the forks/airdrops that forced everyone to move ALL their coins to claim them nor many other factors that were happening during that time (spam, ridiculous FOMO, etc).... Or they do and they just don't care because the only thing that matters is the dramatic headline.

Do they know about wash trading?

Do they know that mining difficulty is actually rising, not falling?

Do they know that exchanges are in bed with mega miners?

Do they know that all exchanges would dump literally every shitcoin they have (to drum up extra money) before they'd start selling their precious bitcoin?

Do they know that *we* know that when they start printing the really doom & gloom articles, the bottom is likely in?
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October 09, 2018, 05:02:17 PM

Do they know about segwit transactions? :-)

Maybe they don't even know about the forks/airdrops that forced everyone to move ALL their coins to claim them nor many other factors that were happening during that time (spam, ridiculous FOMO, etc).... Or they do and they just don't care because the only thing that matters is the dramatic headline.

Do they know about wash trading?

Do they know that mining difficulty is actually rising, not falling?

Do they know that exchanges are in bed with mega miners?

Do they know that all exchanges would dump literally every shitcoin they have (to drum up extra money) before they'd start selling their precious bitcoin?

Do they know that *we* know that when they start printing the really doom & gloom articles, the bottom is likely in?
IOU one merit
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October 09, 2018, 05:05:54 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)


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October 09, 2018, 05:08:23 PM

Quote
Industry bellwether Bitcoin had seen its daily transaction volumes fall from an average of around 360,000 a day in late 2017 to just 230,000 in September 2018.

Bitcoin market is flourishing and growing every day. Market is just moving out of regulated exchanges. Why? Because those exchanges are more and more regulated. Bitcoin is safe without government control. It can exist on markets without any government regulation!
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October 09, 2018, 05:44:23 PM



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Btc poker...... DINNER..... and back BTC poker

Common increasing stacks let it be let be  Grin
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October 09, 2018, 06:18:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://hacked.com/bitcoin-price-tows-the-line-above-6600-mining-becomes-unprofitable-for-the-first-time/

The title of the article is a little deceiving as it basically it just ends up saying that now it's unprofitable for small operations. However, large operations that can utilize the economy of scale can still make a profit mining Bitcoin.

And then we have this: https://www.ccn.com/cnbc-analyst-predicts-bitcoin-price-is-about-to-explode-citing-etf-buzz/

Not that anything from CNBC is truly worthy of note, I just thought him adding that he bought Bitcoin for his parents was amusing.
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October 09, 2018, 06:23:42 PM

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Hahahaha lol lmao , my friend Turks on his M4 and the dashboard selection .... Roll Eyes
What a Guy Roll Eyes
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October 09, 2018, 07:57:15 PM
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Btc poker...... DINNER..... and back BTC poker

Common increasing stacks let it be let be  Grin

whoa !!!!
french fries with steak Huh??

you do not see that combination in north america (well maybe Canada). 
Makes me want to go to a steak restaurant and ask for fries with my steak and see what reaction I get...

Canada was the first place I experienced french fries with chili and cheese poured on top of them.  I think they called them chili fries.
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October 09, 2018, 08:19:56 PM



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Btc poker...... DINNER..... and back BTC poker

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I got the impression about you that you only do what you go to restaurants, eat there and drink. And also have fun. I would have liked it too.
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October 09, 2018, 08:35:40 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1), d_eddie (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Well. Drinking is back on the menu, men.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/bitcoin-on-the-brink-of-an-implosion-researcher-juniper-says

Crypto Industry on ‘Brink of an Implosion,’ Researcher Says
Do they know about segwit transactions? :-)

Maybe they don't even know about the forks/airdrops that forced everyone to move ALL their coins to claim them nor many other factors that were happening during that time (spam, ridiculous FOMO, etc).... Or they do and they just don't care because the only thing that matters is the dramatic headline.

Do they know about wash trading?

Do they know that mining difficulty is actually rising, not falling?

Do they know that exchanges are in bed with mega miners?

Do they know that all exchanges would dump literally every shitcoin they have (to drum up extra money) before they'd start selling their precious bitcoin?

Do they know that *we* know that when they start printing the really doom & gloom articles, the bottom is likely in?

Hit the nail on the head:

Institutional Investors Are Using Back Door for Crypto Buys (1 Oct 2018)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/institutional-investors-are-using-back-door-for-crypto-purchases

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

Bitcoin is now a rich man's game.

2018 marks the transition from small-time retail hype to the beginning of savvy institutional/money-bags hype.

Exchanges are becoming less and less relevant as larger transactions are moving off-exchange at a premium to current exchange prices.

When the next big bull run does happen, small time retail buyers may be shut out due to a lack of supply or basic transaction access.
What little may be available on-exchange during a bull-run will likely fetch a hefty premium.
The next generation of HODLers will be laughing all the way to the exchange OTC.

IMHO, we are in the midst of large-scale coordinated institutional manipulation leading up the next halving/ETF/choose your own hype spark:

1. First rule of Institutional Bitcoin: you don't talk about Institutional Bitcoin.
2. Quietly buy up all the mining supply via OTC back channels or in-house Bitcoin brokers.
[Optional: Fund bogus studies, ban ads, ban credit card & retail bank sales, and fling FUD near and wide to throw your competition off scent. JP Morgan, Chase, Juniper Research, Google, Twitter, etc.]
3. HODL and wait for the next hype-fueled bull run.
4. SHORT futures like mad and then SODL at the peak.
5. Rinse and repeat.

Quote from: Articles
According to Cho, high net-worth individuals and institutions are using the OTC market to process trades that exceed $100,000, which based on the current price of Bitcoin at $6,500 is around 15.38 BTC.

“What that’s showing you is the professionalization that’s happening across the board in this space. The Wild West days of crypto are really turning the corner,” Cho said, speaking to Bloomberg.

“We’ve seen triple-digit growth enrolling in our OTC business," said Jeremy Allaire, chief executive office of Boston-based Circle Internet Financial. “That’s a big growth area."

Cho explained that the stability in the price of Bitcoin and the valuation of the crypto market can be attributed to the entrance of institutional investors and high profile traders into the space, which has corresponded with the strengthening of market infrastructure.

“One of the biggest criticisms of crypto by institutional investors has been the volatility. Over the last four to six months, the market has been trading in a very tight range, and that’s seems to be corresponding with traditional financial institutions becoming more comfortable diving into the space,” Cho said.

Cumberland’s parent company, DRW Holdings, disclosed that more than 33 percent of the company’s OTC market trades were processed during Asia hours, suggesting that large miners like Bitmain’s Antpool and BTC.com are regularly liquidating Bitcoin generated from their mining operations.

"If they are liquidating [coins], they are liquidating them via OTC," said Tom Flake, founder of Bcause, a provider of mining facilities whose customers are institutional miners with hundreds to thousands of machines. The largest miners also sell their coins to sellers directly or through brokers.

One of the biggest reasons to buy coins outside of exchanges, though, is that there are often not as many coins offered for sale as the institutional buyers would like to buy, according to Sam Doctor, managing director and head of data science research at Fundstrat Global Advisers.

“At this point in time, because more and more institutions are beginning to enter the market, there’s more of an imbalance,” Doctor said. That’s why brokerage firms are springing up to help institutional buyers find inventory, he said.

What’s more, miners can offer something unique: brand-new, “virgin” coins, which some investors covet. Such coins command a premium of up to 20 percent, according to Travis Kling, founder of the hedge fund Ikigai. It’s easier to prove they’ve not been involved in money-laundering operations, he said.
Icygreen
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October 09, 2018, 08:37:30 PM



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Btc poker...... DINNER..... and back BTC poker

Common increasing stacks let it be let be  Grin

whoa !!!!
french fries with steak Huh??

you do not see that combination in north america (well maybe Canada). 
Makes me want to go to a steak restaurant and ask for fries with my steak and see what reaction I get...

Canada was the first place I experienced french fries with chili and cheese poured on top of them.  I think they called them chili fries.


Eh, WTF?  chili fries, watch it bud  Roll Eyes  Its called Poutine and its fun to say.
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October 09, 2018, 09:12:26 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2018, 10:12:31 PM by d_eddie
Merited by Torque (1), RejectedBanana (1)

Hit the nail on the head:

Institutional Investors Are Using Back Door for Crypto Buys (1 Oct 2018)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/institutional-investors-are-using-back-door-for-crypto-purchases

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

Bitcoin is now a rich man's game.
Indeed.

Quote
1. First rule of Institutional Bitcoin: you don't talk about Institutional Bitcoin.
Or publicly keep a skeptical attitude about fancy internet money, or even spread FUD. Until your bank is found red-handed. At that point, just keep a publicly skepical attitude. Or even disseminate some doubt-generating mud.

Quote
4. SHORT futures like mad and then SODL at the peak.
The only problem I have with this point is: do you close the mad shorts (buy btc) or do you take a loss?

Quote
Quote from: Articles
According to Cho, high net-worth individuals and institutions are using the OTC market to process trades that exceed $100,000, which based on the current price of Bitcoin at $6,500 is around 15.38 BTC.

(snip)
An enlightening read.

IMO your analysis is spot on, as it often happens.
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October 09, 2018, 09:26:09 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), El duderino_ (1), RejectedBanana (1)

Here's an excerpt from the second link provided by mfort a few posts above.

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

Quote from: newsbtc
When Will it Show on Bitcoin Price?

If institutional investors are acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin in the OTC market, it should have a noticeable impact on the cryptocurrency exchange market and the price movement of major digital asssets.

However, over the past two months, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated stability and struggled to initiate large movements on the upside.

As Circle, Coinbase, BitGo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and other major financial institutions that either have already launched crypto-focused custodian solutions or plan to offer crypto custody in the short-term begin to serve an increasing number of institutional investors in the months to come, investors expect the value of cryptocurrencies to increase accordingly.
The question in the subtitle has been left unanswered in the article, but my reasonable guess is "probably well before the halvening".
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October 09, 2018, 09:34:18 PM


https://twitter.com/VoteOutLibs76/status/1049757091836153857
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