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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24400187 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (151 posts by 39 users deleted.)
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December 16, 2018, 07:02:27 AM

I answered the poll honestly. I don't know.

I doubt anyone willknow until months later.
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December 16, 2018, 07:19:03 AM

Hashrate BTC is increasing
BTC  42.207 Ehash/s  +3.64% in 24 hours / (BCH 914.753 Phash/s  -7.71% in 24 hours)
realr0ach
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December 16, 2018, 07:53:40 AM

I answered the poll honestly. I don't know.

The answer is:  more borders, build a wall, no jewry at all
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December 16, 2018, 08:02:49 AM

President Trump Names Bitcoin and Crypto Supporter As White House Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1073703744766922754

https://coingape.com/bitcoin-advocate-mick-mulvaney-announced-new-chief-staff-president-trump/
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December 16, 2018, 08:22:03 AM

This is my best case scenario.  Purple line is 200 MA Weekly.  Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019. 




New ATH in early 2021 is probably more than what many people would ask. Right now some people must be swearing that they are going to get out and never come back once they hit the price they bought in.  Grin This happens to most people (happened to me in 2014, I know how it feels) especially if this is their first time investing in a high risk/volatile asset like bitcoin.

Exactly what I said to myself in 2014 after being over 50% in the red. All of a sudden we hit $19,xxx & I’m literally over 60 times my total investment........then greed took over & I sold fucking nothing.

It won’t happen during the next epic bull run, I can promise you that Grin
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December 16, 2018, 08:27:12 AM
Last edit: December 16, 2018, 08:55:07 AM by realr0ach


Well duh, because bitcoin is a govt created scam - a failed experimental solution to the inevitable outcome of the Triffin dilemma:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

Bitcoin's real name is "Bancor".  But it completely centralized immediately after release making it useless.  Not that it would actually be possible to get people to accept imaginary, valueless tokens over gold and silver when the system goes bust even if Bitcoin actually had some type of fundamentals (it has none because transaction validators are designed to centralize).  Metals are the Schelling point of money and none of these "Bancor" or SDR scams will ever work.  People are going to demand payment in real money and the acceptability of all these fiat 2.0 bancor scams is going to be zero.

And Bitcoin is not the only Bancor scam, they also have other garbage like Ripple too, and of course Goldmansachs backed Ethereum (RIP).  None of these things actually work in a decentralized manner, so we'll be saying RIP to all of them eventually with physical metals destroying them.
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December 16, 2018, 08:54:56 AM
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In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).


A safe and sure bet would be to buy anytime between now and September 30, 2019 (about the time we will see 6k again); then hold until 2021-2022. Take profits as you must on the upswing.

I have already posted charts on the subject.
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December 16, 2018, 09:05:48 AM
Last edit: December 16, 2018, 09:24:54 AM by realr0ach

In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).

Of course you can, and it's not even hard, but you need to use leverage and you need an aggregate market to actually exist.  If there's no aggregate market, TA is a lot less useful and your only option is trying to determine what the tape painter/market rigger is doing.  Sometimes that can be even easier, sometimes a lot harder.  

The ONLY thing that holds me back in shitcoin trading is not that it's difficult to do, it's that there are NO TRUSTWORTHY EXCHANGES that you can put money on that have margin trading.  Who cares if you can make +5% or more per day trading shitcoins if at any second Bitfinex, Bitmex, or OKcoin will just steal your money leaving you down -100% instead of up anything.  Not that any trader with 2 braincells would trade on a rigged bucketshop like Bitmex in the first place.  And shitholes like Bitfinex are also rigged bucketshop casinos in practice.

Even if you attempt to trade non-margin on a supposed 'trustworthy' exchange like Coinbase, every time you log in they start asking you questions like "where did this money come", "prove to us where this money came from or we're going to freeze your account and take it", etc.
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December 16, 2018, 09:24:22 AM


Well duh, because bitcoin is a govt created scam - a failed experimental solution to the inevitable outcome of the Triffin dilemma:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

Bitcoin's real name is "Bancor".  But it completely centralized immediately after release making it useless.  Not that it would actually be possible to get people to accept imaginary, valueless tokens over gold and silver when the system goes bust even if Bitcoin actually had some type of fundamentals (it has none because transaction validators are designed to centralize).  Metals are the Schelling point of money and none of these "Bancor" or SDR scams will ever work.  People are going to demand payment in real money and the acceptability of all these fiat 2.0 bancor scams is going to be zero.

And Bitcoin is not the only Bancor scam, they also have other garbage like Ripple too, and of course Goldmansachs backed Ethereum (RIP).  None of these things actually work in a decentralized manner, so we'll be saying RIP to all of them eventually with physical metals destroying them.

The price of gold is related to currencies, deflation or inflation causing volatility at the price of gold, etf, derivatives, funds, etc, etc. therefore it is manipulated.
You do not convince me. Cool



If Bitcoin is a reserve of value. (it's a supposition, it could be another currency in the future, but now it's BTC)

People ask? how to pay with Bitcoin if 1 BTC is worth $ 10,000

Easy, with satoshis units.

Bitcoin Max Supply (finite).
21.000.000 BTC

1 BTC = 1 bitcoin

1 BTC = 1,000 mBTC (millibitcoin) (1/1000 bitcoins = 0,001 BTC)

1 BTC = 1,000,000 μBTC (microbitcoin) (1/1.000.000 bitcoins = 0,000001BTC)

1 BTC = 100,000,000 satoshis

1 mBTC = 100,000 satoshis = 1.000 μBTC

1 μBTC (microbitcoin) = 100 satoshis = 1 bit (1/1.000.000 bitcoins = 0,000001 BTC)

1 satoshi = 1/100.000.000 (0,00000001 BTC)

How to buy bread with a gold ingot? Grin

Of course, no one knows what is going to happen to the monetary system and its large unattainable global debt.

(My English level is very low, sorry if it is not well written.)
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December 16, 2018, 09:31:16 AM

If Bitcoin is a reserve of value.

Of course bitcoin is not a store of value.  It's a currency, not money, nor real commodity, nor anything.  No currency is a store of value.  

If you hypothetically chopped the hands off every Jewish moneychanger so they were no longer able to operate a printing press to create new federal reserve notes and the amount of federal reserve notes suddenly becomes finite, it does not mean federal reserve notes suddenly become a store of value either.  It's still worthless paper currency of no value that can vaporize at any second.  Having a supposed cap to bitcoins (which is not really even true since it can be changed) does not make it money.  It's still just a retarded currency like every other worthless currency out there and not money.
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December 16, 2018, 09:35:00 AM

Chance of a small bottom HS reversal pump by today on the 2h chart? I can already see a small shoulder forming. Any pullback at 3170-3150 would be appreciated! Expecting a nice $100 dollar pumperino.
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December 16, 2018, 09:37:41 AM
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Guys, guys, this isn't a normal shit bump, this looks like the beginning of a natural fucking recovery. Have we finished swimming in the shit?

I'm putting the 1 yes in the poll.

The bottom is fucking in.

Sorry dude we need to get through January tax time first.

Bitcoin is global money. It doesn't care when is the tax time or how you pay taxes in your country!
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December 16, 2018, 09:55:08 AM

litecoin always give a better return yet i never buy it  Roll Eyes
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December 16, 2018, 10:09:39 AM
Last edit: December 16, 2018, 11:55:59 AM by mindrust

litecoin always give a better return yet i never buy it  Roll Eyes

Not just Litecoin, every other shitcoin there is will give you better profits in a bull market.

Look at LTC's chart, there is no TA there. (This applies to all other alts btw) Litecoin is below its last ATH (the one in 2014 or 2013 where it hit 50 bucks) at the moment and as far as I know, Bitcoin haven't experienced this yet because TA actually works on BTC and nothing else.

Shitcoin prices are purely based on Bitcoin's price. I like LTC and for the time being, I hold 10 of them. And going to increase it this month and the next because its so fakin cheap, but this doesn't change the fact, it has no real liquidity. (better than many I admit.)

I also agree with bitserve's post about altcoins.

I am not entering the next bull market without any alts in my bag. (Only the good ones like LTC and Monero, maybe some burst, raven, doge (i actually like this one) and ripple (that's absolute shit and I hate it btw) too;)) changed my mind. I'll buy more doge instead of ripple. fuck it.
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December 16, 2018, 10:16:32 AM
Merited by Majormax (1)

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges.  

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Yes, that is a good strategy. I also use this strategy and I have been relaxed about the decline. I have started to scale back in now. It has all been house money for years now as I took out my original investment many moons ago.

Whatever happened to rpietila ?? He had a castle and went insane...or kinda lost the plot? He had some game or virtual world going as well. He made some really good posts years ago.
On an extremely volatile asset, assuming the price returns to the price at which you bought it, there is a trading strategy that makes a profit, as opposed to buying and holding (which would not profit in our example).
Here's a simple explanation https://blog.enigma.co/is-there-a-free-lunch-in-the-crypto-markets-c4aa331443f1

Imagine you start with $1,000, $500 in stock and $500 in cash. Suppose the stock halves in price the first day. This gives you a $750 portfolio with $250 in stock and $500 in cash. This is now lopsided in favor of cash. You rebalance by withdrawing $125 from the cash account to buy stock. This leaves you with a newly balanced mix of $375 in stock and $375 in cash.
Now repeat. The next day, let’s say the stock doubles in price. The $375 in stock jumps to $750. With the $375 in the cash account, you have $1,125…
… After a dramatic plunge, the stock’s price is back to where it began. A buy-and-hold investor would have no profit at all. Shannon’s investor has made $125.


If you do a little math, you'll find that transaction fees will kill this trading strategy.   If you pay transaction fees on the order of 0.2% (like crypto exchange fees), then balancing small moves like 5 or 10 percent will actually lose you money.  The asset has to be very volatile, and it's only worth rebalancing after big moves such as in the example.
Also, you're going to lose money in a bear market, unless you have the resources to hang on for years until the asset's price returns to where you bought it (if it ever does).

I don't believe in rebalancing merely for the sake of it.... gotta be more strategic than that, and just customize to your own sense of the matter.  For example, in bitcoin, we are likely in an exponential s curve adoption that could take 20 or more years to play out, and so in that regard, it likely does not hurt to let some of the profits ride in bitcoin, merely because it is not a mature asset. 

Furthermore, like me signature says, I don't see much of any reason to place much value in alt coins, because they are not really offering anything like bitcoin, and putting value in bitcoin already makes the sound money hedging bet against dollar related investments.
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December 16, 2018, 10:30:14 AM

I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.
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December 16, 2018, 10:32:46 AM

Rocking horses do the best poo. But I never find any of it.

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December 16, 2018, 10:35:33 AM

I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.

I’ve got a stash of XRP, nowhere near as much as my bitcoin HODLINGS but would be nice to see it moon in the future.
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December 16, 2018, 10:36:31 AM

I really don't understand why everyone is so bothered by the decline and theoretical losses at the moment. Yes, it is not pleasant for the hodlers, but I don't agree that we will never recover or it will take decades. Let's recall year 2017, how it started. In early January we were close to a new ATH. Then suddenly the bank of China threatened to ban bitcoin exchanges on multiple occasions. The price fell from 1100 to 700 in hours and didn't recover for 2 months. Back then over 90% of all trades were made in China exchanges. Everyone was scared what will happen (including myself). Next we got denial for ETF. Next Bitfinex stopped withdrawals if fiat and suspicions of bancruptcy was in the air. Next Ver wanted a fork (BU). Next we had a fork in August. Next, we had the final ban in China. Next another fork in November was cancelled. Next Ver and Wu sold massively bitcoins to pump bcash. In all these bad news we were about 8K! The only good news CBOE and CME futures helped to reach 20K. So, you are telling me that in 3 years we can't reach again 8K? It is not realistic even if ETF is denied for ever and CW is dumping regularly his stolen bitcoins! Bitcoin market is way more agile and fast forward 10x any other asset. The most logical thing is in Dec. 2020 (after the halvening) to be above 10K.
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December 16, 2018, 10:44:38 AM

This is my best case scenario.  Purple line is 200 MA Weekly.  Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019.  




New ATH in early 2021 is probably more than what many people would ask. Right now some people must be swearing that they are going to get out and never come back once they hit the price they bought in.  Grin This happens to most people (happened to me in 2014, I know how it feels) especially if this is their first time investing in a high risk/volatile asset like bitcoin.

Exactly what I said to myself in 2014 after being over 50% in the red. All of a sudden we hit $19,xxx & I’m literally over 60 times my total investment........then greed took over & I sold fucking nothing.

It won’t happen during the next epic bull run, I can promise you that Grin

I bought in after the cyprus bubble, I said to myself back then I'd cash some in at 40k. Then the Dec bubble happened that same year. After that popped, I said to myself "next bubble I will sell some then buy in again. Problem is I was calling a bubble at 1800 then 2800 the 5000 and so on, basically I can't tell the top of a bubble for shit, so I'll keep waiting for 40k. Moral of story, wait till your target is hit, because picking the top of a bubble ain't easy, and if you sell too early it's likely you'll panic buy back in.

This is my long-term stash by the way, I do have other amounts that I buy sell more frequently and also for shit coins.
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