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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26330596 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
VB1001
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December 18, 2018, 06:29:30 PM

Who Is Buying Crypto Right Now?



https://coinninja.com/news/who-is-buying-crypto-right-now/

I think everyone is filling the bags.

I hate graphs that cut most of the bars to make the increase look much more impressive than it really is.

Still good increase (15-20% since January)....

This is better.

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December 18, 2018, 06:32:30 PM


Yeah, there is a shitload wrong with that chart but he is using all non-specific terms anyway. For a real understanding all of those must be "in relation to" with a defined metric. Gold being Moderately portable is actually laughable in comparison to BTC but not in comparison to fiat where you can only get your hands on small denomination bills which he has as high which is again laughable.










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December 18, 2018, 07:02:47 PM

Observation: While we have established there does not appear to be any discernible price correlation, between mempool size and BTC price, I did notice that the mempool has dramatically inflated over the last two hours.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,24h

Wormsign.

indeed...12-14 sat/byte to get "in" within 3 hr, >=33 sat/byte within 1 block.
Could be a temporary situation, though.
BTW, network hashing is increasing now, albeit difficulty adjustment would still be down by ~8-9% in a few hours.
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December 18, 2018, 07:05:09 PM

indeed...12-14 sat/byte to get "in" within 3 hr, >=33 sat/byte within 1 block.
Could be a temporary situation, though.

Has anyone charted the correlation if there is one?

I find it hard to believe volume dumpers would wait an hour or more to get on an exchange.
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December 18, 2018, 07:10:32 PM

indeed...12-14 sat/byte to get "in" within 3 hr, >=33 sat/byte within 1 block.
Could be a temporary situation, though.

Has anyone charted the correlation if there is one?

I find it hard to believe volume dumpers would wait an hour or more to get on an exchange.

of course they won't wait, it just shows increased activity/competition for the blockspace.
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December 18, 2018, 07:19:01 PM

A few of my friends, who were watching from the sidelines for the past years, have started showing real interest in the past few weeks (following the dump from 6k). And I mostly run around nerd circles, so perhaps this 'delayed' increase in activity could be a sign of fresh casual blood FOMOing in?

Alternatively Craig & Co trying their playbook again.
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December 18, 2018, 07:27:05 PM

Hi old-timers, it appears there is a new bull in the market.  
am I the only one seeing this or this is just the last pump of the year 2018?

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December 18, 2018, 07:27:11 PM

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

40% of the contestants in Mic's BAAKT game are choosing $6000 or above by February, so there's perhaps more optimism out there than you'd think.
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December 18, 2018, 07:35:50 PM

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

40% of the contestants in Mic's BAAKT game are choosing $6000 or above by February, so there's perhaps more optimism out there than you'd think.
Except they might also be betting that BAAKT won't happpen by February.
They are for sure still bullish on 2019 though.
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December 18, 2018, 07:38:23 PM

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts Kiss

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

I don't see a long, lull in the market either. Prices are very low already and why should we be so lucky to accumulate cheap coins for 12+ months? Call me crazy, but I see the possibility for a double bubble still occurring in 2019.

You mean first bubble is 6k$ and second 40k$?

Something similar like 2013, where we had a run up from $10 to $250 in the spring and then another run up to $1150 at the end of 2013. The first bubble was to $20k and then we bubble again in 2019.
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December 18, 2018, 07:41:57 PM

All bottoms are behind now, in the rear-view mirror.




Like this:


barota
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December 18, 2018, 07:45:41 PM

2019 will be good and better than 2018
Who has despair and frustration It was not here in december 2017
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December 18, 2018, 07:47:24 PM

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts Kiss

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

I don't see a long, lull in the market either. Prices are very low already and why should we be so lucky to accumulate cheap coins for 12+ months? Call me crazy, but I see the possibility for a double bubble still occurring in 2019.

You mean first bubble is 6k$ and second 40k$?

Something similar like 2013, where we had a run up from $10 to $250 in the spring and then another run up to $1150 at the end of 2013. The first bubble was to $20k and then we bubble again in 2019.
In regard to all these, I don't think the bitcoin price will surpass $20,000 in 2019. I see 2019 as a recovery year for bitcoin and nothing more as many people are afraid of seeing another market crash. Perhaps, the bitcoin will see another ATH in the year 2020.
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December 18, 2018, 07:50:18 PM

i will love the moment when we take off again and the naysayers,nocoiners that all where going to BUY @ 5000-4000-3500-3000-2500 etc
are going to be left alone again
GoGoGoGo BTCBTCBTCBTC

I'm all-in in this one mate. So if you don't mind, I'm trying to get the maximum out of it.
I'm not a whale, so buying at any price isn't a thing (holding to be exact).

I truly think that during the 1st quarter of 2019 will be the best time to buy - pretty much for the whole year for that matter - as is also now.

You might get lucky, but you are gambling.

A better strategy is to buy a little now, and hold some fiat in reserves to buy more in 1st quarter of 2019 if you believe that there might be another dump.  

Anyhow, you have to chose for yourself, but frequently it is better to be prepared for either direction, and if you hold zero bitcoin right now, you are not prepared for UP, which may have less than a 40% chance from here, but even less than 40% is nothing to sneeze at, especially if UP ends up happening, rather than your expected down.

By the way, even if you assess the probability of down from here (into 1st quarter 2019) at 80%, you still should consider the 20% chance that you are wrong.  And, anyhow, I doubt that anyone making 80% predictions is anywhere in the ballpark of reasonable, even under current conditions.  But of course, you are free to assign whatever value you believe under whatever parameters you consider most relevant.
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December 18, 2018, 07:58:01 PM

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

40% of the contestants in Mic's BAAKT game are choosing $6000 or above by February, so there's perhaps more optimism out there than you'd think.
Except they might also be betting that BAAKT won't happpen by February.
They are for sure still bullish on 2019 though.

I only see . Spaceman was very bearish on the game
               . Infofront bullish short term ( or guessing that BAKKT is delay/don’t launch and we hit around his price by end of 2019
               . And yefi didn’t particpate Roll Eyes
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December 18, 2018, 07:58:12 PM

Not my chart.. but scary accurate in the past..



I wasnt ready to wait 5 years..  anyways.. just hodl
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December 18, 2018, 08:02:24 PM

Not my chart.. but scary accurate in the past..



I wasnt ready to wait 5 years..  anyways.. just hodl

Worth noting we are already at the price that chart says is the bottom ($3k).  
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December 18, 2018, 08:06:57 PM

I wasnt ready to wait 5 years..  anyways.. just hodl

The comparative sluggishness of the rise fits in there, but the fall has been of a similar pace and percentage compared to last time.

Either way in five years I'll probably be back in nappies so sooner works better for me.
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December 18, 2018, 08:08:16 PM

BTC Difficulty adjustment in 2.9 hours. Watch the price after that, I suspect it is going to go down.
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December 18, 2018, 08:09:51 PM

BTC Difficulty adjustment in 2.9 hours. Watch the price after that, I suspect it is going to go down.

Difficulty follows price.  Price does not follow difficulty.
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