Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Just another worthless cloud shill. I always like the people who go on about how "secure" the cloud is. Sun used to go on about "One arrow, one target" while those of us in the know called it "one egg, one basket".

Eh, whatever. Another case of blame someone else for failure.

Many of us bitcoiners have discovered that it is not easy to be your own bank, even if you have learned various storage mechanisms (and methods) over the years.

There remains a certain amount of uncertainty, flux and even lack of confidence regarding the extent to which your mechanisms and methods are both adequately secure and accessible, including whether you have taken sufficient measures in the event of your untimely demise or death.  There is no one-size-fits-all here, even though some security and accessibility practices are better than others, seems to be a bit of a moving target to attempt to achieve an appropriate level of security and accessibility in proportion to the value of your BTC (and perhaps other cryptos) holdings. 

Also, too much disclosure of your security practices could be a bit of a bad opsec, too.

[1714982025]

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[1714982025]

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[HairyMaclairy]

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

100% agree.  This is certainly not confirmed - it is a tentative hypothesis only.  The majority of technicals are against the bottom being in.

Really we have two choices.  Either Bitcoin price cycles are stable in length or they are getting longer.  

I am punting on the former but this is all about risk management.

[Wekkel]

Let's go down the rabbit hole of debate, shall we. Let's dispel the delusion.

Bitcoin: mostly speculation
Use: store of value, (up to certain level) payment network

Ethereum: mostly speculation
Use: decentralised computing, USP less clear than Bitcoin

[Last of the V8s]

In a later tweet,

l.i.n.k?

[JayJuanGee]

kalashnikovs are the goto weapon for large parts of the world, and they do back a wallop with a heavy bullet. getting hit with a heavy bullet that size would not be pleasant at all.

Especially, if in the head.   

[Ibian]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye

In other words an unacceptable risk.

[bitserve]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye

In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.

[Cassius]

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

100% agree.  This is certainly not confirmed - it is a tentative hypothesis only.  The majority of technicals are against the bottom being in.

Really we have two choices.  Either Bitcoin price cycles are stable in length or they are getting longer.  

I am punting on the former but this is all about risk management.

Ah, cheers for the clarification. I doubt the cycles will be that different but a few days/weeks could make a lot of difference. We'll know soon.

[El duderino_]

In a later tweet,

l.i.n.k?

Or it didn’t happen

[Ibian]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye

In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.

You'd have to pay me for it. I know how americans love lawsuits. Besides it's not about you mister narcissist. It's about the people it actually does happen to, especially those who did not consent to random falling bullets. The more it's accepted the more people will do it the more people will get hurt.

[bitserve]

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye

In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.

You'd have to pay me for it. I know how americans love lawsuits.

hahahah, I am Spanish not American, and a little bit crazy maybe, but no, indeed it would not be cheap for me to do that even if I (theoretically) consider the risk is very low in comparison to other daily activities... Not cheap at all, even if just for compensating me being scared as hell besides all the probabilities in my favour.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Nah.

I'd say ETH is BTC-like right now.

BTC can't die because that's the entry gate to any crypto related project. For BTC to die it means all altcoins must die first.

ETH can't die because it's the baseground of all the shitcoin ICO projects. And there is too much potential (appart from all the stormshit) for it to die.

You have few coins that have any use, BTC and ETH are some of them.

I understand what you are saying, here, yet I still have conceptual difficulties with your placing BTC and ETH on similar grounds.

Sure, there is an on-boarding utility aspect to each coin, yet BTC is sound money, and as you acknowledge, ETH is a platform used to pump scams.

We can acknowledge these on-boarding similarity dynamics of both coins, and especially considering the sound money differentiation of bitcoin, and recognize that it could take 20 years or more for the various ICO scams to play out and for the sound money differentiation to magnetize the vast majority of value into BTC.

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Bitcoin has a valid use cases TODAY, thus value and incentive to hold it and use it TODAY.

ETH has ??

Nothing but future promises on supposed future use cases for solutions for problems that don't really exist (because idealized, ivory tower bullshit, not reality), therefore no incentive to hold it or use it TODAY nor in the FUTURE. It's valuation at any time has zero to do with its utility, which is really nil.

ETH's "valid use case" today is it's facilitation of scams (including ICOs), so whether we like it or not, ETH has a "valid" (even though scam dependent) "today use case," no?

[Toxic2040]

I guess the point I was trying to make is it's probably not a good idea. I was trained to always to shoot at something, be it a practice target, the ground, a tree or the enemy. Not wildly into the air. ymmv.

--------
Bitcoin

Some short fibs as consolidation continues.
30m


Do to recent unforeseen circumstances we have several new positions open in our knife catcher department. Applicant's are encouraged to apply below...

A small dip perhaps followed by a weekend recovery? #dyor
3h

#stronghands'19

--

[JayJuanGee]

So I guess people believe that as long as a crypto is secure, scales, has a good wallet, can run a node, and runs on good hardware, then....

....it really doesn't NEED TO HAVE ANY PURPOSE FOR EXISTING BEYOND THOSE THINGS TO BE A SUCCESS??

Are you guys for real? Those are all just technical details, that can be easily cloned and replicated with the click of a mouse.

I don't understand why you, Torque, have this tendency to describe some general point of view, and than attribute such point of view to "you guys." 

Is this just an ongoing figure of speech of yours, or are you always engaging in such generalization fallacies in your way of thinking about matters? 

As if you are the only person that has any original perspective, and all other thoughts fall into a glob of "you guys think?"   Or a Straw man, way of presentation?

[bitserve]

I guess the point I was trying to make is it's probably not a good idea. I was trained to always to shoot at something, be it a practice target, the ground, a tree or the enemy. Not wildly into the air. ymmv.

Oh yeah, I totally agree. My father used to shoot .22 cal bullets straight up in the air in the middle of the fucking city when we were testing some homemade silencers I used to make (not anymore, I am a totally law abiding citizen and have always been since I was 18+) and I remember I was very uncomfortable and upset with him for that because I speculated about the possibility of someone being hit by the falling bullets even if miles away. He never even considered my opinion and now I think he was probably right... At least now that I can get my calculations right. Still I think it was wrong and a perfectly avoidable risk no matter what.

[realr0ach]

https://dailystormer.name/gillette-metoo-ad-criticizing-toxic-masculinity-gets-downvoted-to-hell-on-youtube/

[JayJuanGee]

Some events, Bitcoin, Blockchain and Crypto.

Code:

Event							Location		    Date	    	Country
						
CES Las Vegas 						Las Vegas		Jan 08, 2019		US
Blockchain Connect 					San Francisco		Jan 11, 2019		US
UNLOCK Blockchain					Dubai			Jan 15, 2019		Arab Emirates
North American Bitcoin Conference 			Miami			Jan 16, 2019		Arab Emirates
Binance Blockchain Week					Singapore		Jan 19, 2019		Singapur
Bitcoin: 10 Years (2009 - 2019) Bitcoin City		Arnhem			Jan 20, 2019		Netherlands
2nd Annual CHAINERS Blockchain Week			Seoul			Jan 23, 2019		South Korea
Crypto Pro Expo						San Francisco		Jan 29, 2019		US
Japan Blockchain Conference				Yokohama		Jan 30, 2019		Japan
Blockchain & Automated IT for Government Summit		Arlington		Jan 31, 2019		US
Wall Street Blockchain Summit				New York		Jan 31, 2019		US
							
Advancing Bitcoin					London			Feb 07, 2019		United Kingdom
Blockchain in Oil and Gas Canada 			Calgary			Feb 12, 2019		Canada
Blockchain Economy Istanbul Summit			Istanbul		Feb 20, 2019		Turkey
							
Fintech Week Tel Aviv 					Tel Aviv		Mar 04, 2019		Israel
DC Blockchain Summit 					Washington, DC		Mar 06, 2019		US
Cryptocurrency World Expo Zug, Summit			Switzerland		Mar 08, 2019		Switzerland
Asia Crypto Week					Hong Kong		Mar 11, 2019		China
Shared Services & Outsourcing Week			Orlando			Mar 11, 2019		US
Blockchain Technology World				London			Mar 12, 2019		United Kingdom
TOKEN2049						Hong Kong		Mar 13, 2019		China
Money20/20 Asia	Singapore				Singapore		Mar 19, 2019		Singapur
Mallorca Blockchain Days				Mallorca		Mar 22, 2019		Spain
							
Blockchain Summit Austria				Vienna			Apr 02, 2019		Austria
CryptoBlockCon, Los Angeles				Los Angeles		Apr 03, 2019		US
LendIt Fintech USA 					San Francisco		Apr 08, 2019		US
Seamless Middle East 					Dubai			Apr 10, 2019		Arab Emirates
Stockholm Blockchain Forum				Stockholm		Apr 11, 2019		Sweden
Paris Blockchain Week					Paris			Apr 16, 2019		France
Blockchain Life Asia					Singapore		Apr 23, 2019		Singapore
Blockchain Expo Global 					London			Apr 25, 2019		United Kingdom
European Payment Summit 				The Hague		Apr 26, 2019		Netherlands
							
Malta Blockchain Summit 				Malta			May 23, 2019		Malta
							
Token Fest - The Business of Blockchain			Tel Aviv		Jun 03, 2019		Israel
CoinsBank Blockchain Cruise				Barcelona		Jun 09, 2019		Spain
UNCHAIN, Berlin						Germany			Jun 13, 2019		Germany
Blockchain Expo Europe					Amsterdam		Jun 19, 2019		Netherlands

Did you compile this list yourself?  What were your sources?

[Torque]

So I guess people believe that as long as a crypto is secure, scales, has a good wallet, can run a node, and runs on good hardware, then....

....it really doesn't NEED TO HAVE ANY PURPOSE FOR EXISTING BEYOND THOSE THINGS TO BE A SUCCESS??

Are you guys for real? Those are all just technical details, that can be easily cloned and replicated with the click of a mouse.

I don't understand why you, Torque, have this tendency to describe some general point of view, and than attribute such point of view to "you guys."  

Is this just an ongoing figure of speech of yours, or are you always engaging in such generalization fallacies in your way of thinking about matters?  

As if you are the only person that has any original perspective, and all other thoughts fall into a glob of "you guys think?"   Or a Straw man, way of presentation?

They know who they are JJG. Obviously not you. Unless you secretly think the shitcoins du jour have any purpose for existing or real world value, in which, I'd be glad to debate that with you.

ETH's "valid use case" today is it's facilitation of scams (including ICOs), so whether we like it or not, ETH has a "valid" (even though scam dependent) "today use case," no?

Sorry but no. To facilitate scams is not a value-add purpose for existing. That's total bullshit.

[JayJuanGee]

Im nowhere on the centralised trustles default pseudo trustlist (2nd layer)

my name is mud

I don't know how it exactly works, but I have you in my white trustbox if that is worth anything

yeah, the whole "trust" thing seems very opaque to me

I did add FlensGold to my white box as he is the one member that ever had the opportunity to steal from me and didn't.

when someone has a clear chance of stealing, and does not steal.... yeah that earns trust
 

Credit where it is due but... except people behaviour may change depending on the circumstances. Never forget that.

Never trust anyone that have nothing to lose and much to gain by cheating you.

Don't trust, verify.

P.S.: Also, the fact that someone is trustable doesn't mean his criteria about other people trust may be correct. In fact it is usually the contrary.

Sometimes there can be a longcon going on, too (which might be your reference, bitserve?), and in that regard, there would be several small opportunities to steal that are not realized, but result in a BIG stealing event that comes later on down the line.  It seems that there have been quite a few longcon examples that have taken place in bitcoin, bitcointalk and crypto... which boils down to guys (and perhaps gal?) building up confidence over time, and then later running off with the funds in an exit scam.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/stormXBT/status/1085228950861893633

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