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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.8%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.2%)
H1 2020 - 28 (19%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.7%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.2%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.7%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (2%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.2%)
Total Voters: 147

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21288405 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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January 15, 2019, 05:50:17 PM

^
haha LoL, @the present .... I would always like to have a box like that
would be instant BTCbuying Cheesy Cheesy
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ðºÞæ
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January 15, 2019, 05:52:11 PM

I think we’re set for a long period (multi month) of sideways price action so you know what that means ——>

HODL & accumulate because ——->


A ton of paper cost about $500
A ton of  toilet paper $1181
jbreher
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January 15, 2019, 05:52:20 PM

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you.

Yeah. Common misconception that a bullet travels just as fast on the way down as on the way up.

Then again, 230 grains with a BC of about 1/4 at terminal velocity would still be unpleasant.
Last of the V8s
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January 15, 2019, 05:52:27 PM

Yuh I'm dead impressed gentlemand didn't run off to Southend with Arriemoller's £1.60 +p&p. He could have settled with a gypsy woman and rubbed crystal balls while she cackled. But no, he did a trustworthy thing that one time.

Are we certain I didn't slaughter him and now inhabit his account to make me look good?

Maybe I even did that before and asked myself for the newspaper.

Growing online reps are a brutal business.

Now you mention it that does seem much more likely.

Those green numbers by one's nym are well worth a little split blood.
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January 15, 2019, 05:55:53 PM

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you.

Yeah. Common misconception that a bullet travels just as fast on the way down as on the way up.

Then again, 230 grains with a BC of about 1/4 at terminal velocity would still be unpleasant.

Most probably not deadly at all plus the human density is pretty low in comparison to free space even in densely habited areas.

Parabolic arcs (ie 45 degrees) are way more dangerous... and still the above applies.
micgoossens
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January 15, 2019, 05:59:47 PM

Last year I was a millionaire (in dollars).

means that you had (or perhaps have?) more than 53 (in bitcoins)



hahaha, I like how you always like to make people recognise how many BTC they do have. As a penalty I will say my educated guess is that you have, with a high degree of certainty, an amount between 40 and 150 BTC. And, if I had to guess the exact amount, I would say around 60 right now... including alt/shitcoins and trading fiat.

Of course this is all just my own speculation with absolutely no factual resemblance to reality.

P.S.: I have less than that... and that is a FACT.

thats a guess on who of those 2?
Roll Eyes
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January 15, 2019, 06:00:35 PM

Last year I was a millionaire (in dollars).

means that you had (or perhaps have?) more than 53 (in bitcoins)



hahaha, I like how you always like to make people recognise how many BTC they do have. As a penalty I will say my educated guess is that you have, with a high degree of certainty, an amount between 40 and 150 BTC. And, if I had to guess the exact amount, I would say around 60 right now... including alt/shitcoins and trading fiat.

Of course this is all just my own speculation with absolutely no factual resemblance to reality.

P.S.: I have less than that... and that is a FACT.

thats a guess on who of those 2?
Roll Eyes

On JJG of course, because he is always trying to make other people say it Smiley


Again... I might be perfectly wrong. If I *really* knew it, I would say NOTHING.
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January 15, 2019, 06:02:25 PM

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you.

Yeah. Common misconception that a bullet travels just as fast on the way down as on the way up.

Then again, 230 grains with a BC of about 1/4 at terminal velocity would still be unpleasant.

Most probably not deadly at all plus the human density is pretty low in comparison to free space even in densely habited areas.

Parabolic arcs (ie 45 degrees) are way more dangerous... and still the above applies.
So far managed to evade all deadly rain and hail.
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January 15, 2019, 06:06:54 PM
Merited by nanobtc (1)

^ It looks like Zappa.

Derek Smalls. Spinal Tap. Necessary cultural experience.
jbreher
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January 15, 2019, 06:10:11 PM

Some pages may be sticky, but hey you only wanted the cover

I didn't realize it was a 'page three' kind of paper.
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January 15, 2019, 06:18:17 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?
bitserve
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January 15, 2019, 06:25:11 PM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 06:37:05 PM by bitserve

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.
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January 15, 2019, 06:26:45 PM

Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.

Aww, now my feewings are hurt. Oh well, I gotta do me.

Welcome the the thread, D. Lurk. Smiley

Hi, thank you.

But NB, it's Lerk with an 'e'. The 'u's split from our, talkative, side of the family. We don't hear from them anymore. They never visit, they never write.
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January 15, 2019, 06:34:34 PM

'ello, son. ty for the merit Grin
'twas richly deserved and beautifully allocated Roll Eyes
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January 15, 2019, 06:36:06 PM

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

yeah once the silk road stack was auctioned by the government that was a big turning point. the government destroys seized evidence it considers illegal ie look at all the drugs destroyed by burning etc. by auctioning it i knew it was legit then.

dunno about you but back in the day when btc was a few bucks i threw it around like popcorn. just testing various wallets on different computers and to and from exchanges just to see how it worked. ive lost some coins by mistakes, some by forgetting about them. it was never a large percentage of course, but the amount ive lost would be worth a good amount today. but that was very early on when it was unknown if it would even survive.

if i had known what it would eventually be valued at i would of course been more careful, as i am now. back then in my wildest dreams i would never even of though it would hit 20k a coin. and i would of just laughed at anyone that said that. back in 2011-2012? pffft. coins were just things to play with.

EDIT: i mined my coins starting in 2011, didnt buy them. might be a reason i didnt value them much as i didnt pay money for them. just a byproduct of my gpus.

I doubted that it would survive. Money on the public internet?? Just asking for trouble. Surely the design couldn't have mitigated all attack vectors? I fully expected my Qt wallet to be emptied during the first few weeks.

I had a go mining, just to try and understand the process, but soon realised it was far more efficient for me just to buy them. We each have our part to play in this most elegant of systems.
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January 15, 2019, 06:39:49 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

I don't necessarily agree with Hairy's overlaying of the charts, and I remain of the opinion that we are in a bear market... yet I like to look at previous support levels, such as $6k in order to confirm that we are out of the bear market.  Therefore, there seems to remain a decent chance that down is easier than up, but it also does not preclude that a considerable amount of sideways and faking out might take place in the next several months, which seems to be the scenario that Hairy is most inclined towards, at the moment.
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January 15, 2019, 06:42:04 PM

Thanks for your TA's, one of the few people here who post on topic Smiley

+1 WOsMerit

Thank you for the acknowledgement and your welcome. You must have glossed over all my other sh*tposts however..   Tongue

Do you mean biology-based conspiracies or just biology as a general term?

lol'd

+1 WOsMerit

Yup, I'm in lurk mode last weeks  Wink

+1 WOsMerit

A eyeball after my own heart.  My lurkiness tends to wax and wane with bitcoins price surprisingly..   Tongue

Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015. 

We are now past that time in this cycle.  If the fractal holds, we have bottomed. 

I just bought again. 

+1 WOsMerit

Just be cautious of bias. I do not feel we have seen the last power plays of this year.

Basic strategy has been to view bitcoin as a far-out-of-the-money put on the dollar (as the reserve currency, the one with the most to lose) with no expiry. Whats not to like about that? Very little cost to hold compared to the potential upside.

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

Sold about 3% in the 5-digits for treats, but not out of scale to general lifestyle.

Played a little with alts, missed ETH though (didn't like the too-slick build-up) now just XMR. Dumped the forks for one-sixth stash boost (thanks Roger). Thought BCH an obvious take-over attempt by the corps and China and would rather have sunk with the ship than be pwned by Jihan, the CCP and fvckin Calvin forcrissakes. Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.



edit: Hi Toxic2040, and thanks for the charts. I like that you present a range. 3 shades of grey, as it were.
edit: thanks Globb0, you can be a funny guy

+6 WOsMerit's

This is good insight that I agree is rarely mentioned. So much so that I kind of had a whoa moment thinking about it again. I vaguely remember being interested enough in the auction to actually try and figure out what the requirements of bidding would be. I think this was during the time when colored coins was a big(ger) debate and I was just too worried about taint to follow through however.

Your welcome. I am glad you enjoy my feeble ch-art attempts. I too am mostly interested in longer term trends that are shown on the weekly and dailies, but hope that "shorter" time frames can be of use to some.

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January 15, 2019, 06:42:38 PM

'ello, son. ty for the merit Grin
'twas richly deserved and beautifully allocated Roll Eyes

If you're thanking me for last night, the pleasure was all mine.

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January 15, 2019, 06:48:21 PM

I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

https://twitter.com/gissisim/status/1069343819081105408?lang=en

Smiley

That is NOT an example of a gun shot into the air.  That is an example of bad grip.   Tongue  Roll Eyes
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January 15, 2019, 06:55:10 PM
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Worthwhile tweet storm:



https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1084848063947071488
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