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Question: When will we see a new ATH? (Credit to: Biodom)
2019 - 14 (8.6%)
Early 2020 - 35 (21.6%)
Late 2020 - 50 (30.9%)
Early 2021 - 14 (8.6%)
Late 2021 - 26 (16%)
2022 - 4 (2.5%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
2024 - 4 (2.5%)
After 2024 - 3 (1.9%)
Never - 12 (7.4%)
Total Voters: 162

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21432400 times)
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January 15, 2019, 06:39:49 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

I don't necessarily agree with Hairy's overlaying of the charts, and I remain of the opinion that we are in a bear market... yet I like to look at previous support levels, such as $6k in order to confirm that we are out of the bear market.  Therefore, there seems to remain a decent chance that down is easier than up, but it also does not preclude that a considerable amount of sideways and faking out might take place in the next several months, which seems to be the scenario that Hairy is most inclined towards, at the moment.
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January 15, 2019, 06:42:04 PM

Thanks for your TA's, one of the few people here who post on topic Smiley

+1 WOsMerit

Thank you for the acknowledgement and your welcome. You must have glossed over all my other sh*tposts however..   Tongue

Do you mean biology-based conspiracies or just biology as a general term?

lol'd

+1 WOsMerit

Yup, I'm in lurk mode last weeks  Wink

+1 WOsMerit

A eyeball after my own heart.  My lurkiness tends to wax and wane with bitcoins price surprisingly..   Tongue

Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015. 

We are now past that time in this cycle.  If the fractal holds, we have bottomed. 

I just bought again. 

+1 WOsMerit

Just be cautious of bias. I do not feel we have seen the last power plays of this year.

Basic strategy has been to view bitcoin as a far-out-of-the-money put on the dollar (as the reserve currency, the one with the most to lose) with no expiry. Whats not to like about that? Very little cost to hold compared to the potential upside.

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

Sold about 3% in the 5-digits for treats, but not out of scale to general lifestyle.

Played a little with alts, missed ETH though (didn't like the too-slick build-up) now just XMR. Dumped the forks for one-sixth stash boost (thanks Roger). Thought BCH an obvious take-over attempt by the corps and China and would rather have sunk with the ship than be pwned by Jihan, the CCP and fvckin Calvin forcrissakes. Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.



edit: Hi Toxic2040, and thanks for the charts. I like that you present a range. 3 shades of grey, as it were.
edit: thanks Globb0, you can be a funny guy

+6 WOsMerit's

This is good insight that I agree is rarely mentioned. So much so that I kind of had a whoa moment thinking about it again. I vaguely remember being interested enough in the auction to actually try and figure out what the requirements of bidding would be. I think this was during the time when colored coins was a big(ger) debate and I was just too worried about taint to follow through however.

Your welcome. I am glad you enjoy my feeble ch-art attempts. I too am mostly interested in longer term trends that are shown on the weekly and dailies, but hope that "shorter" time frames can be of use to some.

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January 15, 2019, 06:42:38 PM

'ello, son. ty for the merit Grin
'twas richly deserved and beautifully allocated Roll Eyes

If you're thanking me for last night, the pleasure was all mine.

We never forget the first time.

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January 15, 2019, 06:48:21 PM

I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

https://twitter.com/gissisim/status/1069343819081105408?lang=en

Smiley

That is NOT an example of a gun shot into the air.  That is an example of bad grip.   Tongue  Roll Eyes
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January 15, 2019, 06:55:10 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

Worthwhile tweet storm:



https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1084848063947071488
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January 15, 2019, 07:01:12 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.
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January 15, 2019, 07:21:44 PM

i mainly carry a handgun in the woods and thats what i would be firing in the air as a warning shot for the wild dogs and such. and even though i know its miles of woods i think i will at least consider trying to fire into a tree from now on. its just habit to never, ever fire a round with no real target as if i miss the tree that bullet can go a long way. and while there should be no one in my woods.. still..
Fire in front of the dog.

that would have very good odds of seriously hurting it via ricochet/spall, and hurting it is worse than killing it.

i have no wish to harm any animal, much less kill it. if it looks ready to attack, fine, dead dog. but if its pondering the situation ("hmm.. is that thing good to eat?") scaring it off is fine by me. scaring and hurting it via spall so it suffers is not.
Well firing in the air has a chance of killing a human, even if a small one.

Look there is no polite solution to dangerous situations like that. Pick the one that has the least chance of harming humans, not other animals.
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January 15, 2019, 07:22:27 PM


In a later tweet, CZ is clarifying that his tweet was meant as a kind of advertisement for BinanceDEX, which seems to be an exchange that does not yet exist (even though CZ has been talking about it for more than a year).

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January 15, 2019, 07:27:08 PM
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Great tweet storm. If there's one thing I could tweet on that thread (can't, I don't do Twitter) is that :

*Before* a crypto can succeed as a worldwide payment system, it FIRST has to become a successful SoV.

Why?

Because you can't have a successful worldwide payment system without high liquidity. Period. And you can't have high liquidity without a high enough stable value, brought about by solid SoV as a core attribute first. On chain scalability is secondary to this (although LN completely solves that problem).

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January 15, 2019, 07:27:47 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
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January 15, 2019, 07:29:02 PM

Just another worthless cloud shill. I always like the people who go on about how "secure" the cloud is. Sun used to go on about "One arrow, one target" while those of us in the know called it "one egg, one basket".

Eh, whatever. Another case of blame someone else for failure.

Many of us bitcoiners have discovered that it is not easy to be your own bank, even if you have learned various storage mechanisms (and methods) over the years.

There remains a certain amount of uncertainty, flux and even lack of confidence regarding the extent to which your mechanisms and methods are both adequately secure and accessible, including whether you have taken sufficient measures in the event of your untimely demise or death.  There is no one-size-fits-all here, even though some security and accessibility practices are better than others, seems to be a bit of a moving target to attempt to achieve an appropriate level of security and accessibility in proportion to the value of your BTC (and perhaps other cryptos) holdings. 

Also, too much disclosure of your security practices could be a bit of a bad opsec, too.
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January 15, 2019, 07:29:30 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

100% agree.  This is certainly not confirmed - it is a tentative hypothesis only.  The majority of technicals are against the bottom being in.

Really we have two choices.  Either Bitcoin price cycles are stable in length or they are getting longer.  

I am punting on the former but this is all about risk management.
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January 15, 2019, 07:30:29 PM

Let's go down the rabbit hole of debate, shall we. Let's dispel the delusion.

Bitcoin: mostly speculation
Use: store of value, (up to certain level) payment network

Ethereum: mostly speculation
Use: decentralised computing, USP less clear than Bitcoin
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January 15, 2019, 07:31:57 PM

In a later tweet,
l.i.n.k?
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January 15, 2019, 07:32:55 PM

kalashnikovs are the goto weapon for large parts of the world, and they do back a wallop with a heavy bullet. getting hit with a heavy bullet that size would not be pleasant at all.

Especially, if in the head.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 15, 2019, 07:37:44 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
In other words an unacceptable risk.
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January 15, 2019, 07:42:12 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.
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January 15, 2019, 07:42:42 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

100% agree.  This is certainly not confirmed - it is a tentative hypothesis only.  The majority of technicals are against the bottom being in.

Really we have two choices.  Either Bitcoin price cycles are stable in length or they are getting longer.  

I am punting on the former but this is all about risk management.


Ah, cheers for the clarification. I doubt the cycles will be that different but a few days/weeks could make a lot of difference. We'll know soon.
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January 15, 2019, 07:47:46 PM

Or it didn’t happen
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January 15, 2019, 07:49:28 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.
You'd have to pay me for it. I know how americans love lawsuits. Besides it's not about you mister narcissist. It's about the people it actually does happen to, especially those who did not consent to random falling bullets. The more it's accepted the more people will do it the more people will get hurt.
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