Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[btcbeliever]

... So, I think the most safe thing is to hodl until there is a need or a strong desire to pay for something useful with part of the stash like house, car, college for the kids, etc. And after the purchase, any proper opportunity to recover the stash should be used. If only all people were thinking like that, we could have avoided all these idiotic crashes. ...

in my opinion the most safe thing is to diversify when extreme fomo takes hold, when bitcoin looks historically overvalued, to sell maybe half, and purchase another kind of asset.  If you can sell anywhere near the top, with a 70-85% drop coming afterwards, it's really foolish to hold.  I've held through 2 big crashes, having bought in early 2013.  It's much better to sell high than to sell 'when you want to pay for something'.  Keep your portfolio diversified in different assets.  There's no guarantee with any investment, including bitcoin.   On this next anticipated runup, I hope to follow my own advice better.

It sounds like a perfect plan, except a little tiny itsy bitsy detail: Do you know what the top will be with an 100% certainty? Unless you have a time machine, I doubt it. In early 2017 the top was almost certain to be $1000, 3 months later $3000, then ... you know the drill. I got burned by that logic 5 times in 2017. If I was just holding, now after all crashes, I should have had 4 times more bitcoins than I am having now. In reality, if you sell with the hope of 80% gains, you will certainly sell at least 10% below the top, and if you got the luck to nail the momentary dip, you could get like 20-30% tops. And that, if you are extremely lucky! Besides, there is a risk leaving fiat on exchanges and 10-40% taxes if you withdraw to the bank account. So, I prefer to hodl in all the coming crashes. Bring it on, baby!

I hear you, the tax bite was a real psychological impediment for me to sell.  But you have to overcome it.  If you have looked at each run-up before the massive crash, you can see a kind of ridiculously rapid increase in price, that's the signal to be accelerating divestiture out of bitcoin!  Don't worry about the taxes, you still will be way ahead if you sell when people are climbing all over each other to buy.  You don't need to know the exact top.  once  you get to about 10-20 times the price of $20,000 you can't loose by selling off a significant percentage periodically as it continues up.  There are some good log charts of bitcoin price going back 5-10 years, you can eyeball it and tell when it's a better time to sell and a better time to buy.  It's not quick nor easy, but it's better than holding through these huge run-ups and crashes.

[xhomerx10]

^yeah thought he was a maximalist. he probably does know lol

meanwhile the worm has turned.

 In another 40 minutes or so me and my Sasuke hat are going to go out on the roof (I'm working nights again) and try to increase our Bitcoin Chakra in the light of the super worm moon using the moon symbol given to us by the Sage of the Six Paths and possibly some gravitational ninjutsu.

TL;DR moon soon

Edit: speaking of the worm turning

[JayJuanGee]

[ edited out]

I did not write "historical A", but "historical (end-of-)A", meaning that I'm not sure if we have already completed the A, or we'll see a bit more down to complete A (all this assumes we are moving much slower than in 2014). In case we already completed A, we are now in B and should slowly climb towards the 4 of A, which is at ~12k$.

Thanks for the clarification about the location in "historical A" or "end of".  So I think that I more clearly understand your thinking.

I don't care about S curve adoption, I see bitcoin similar to a multi-billion corporation with shitty R&D, so very bearish long term, if nothing changes for the good in R&D.

And, thanks for this explanation too.  I had thought that our last price surge to $20k might have zapped you out of some of your bearish skepticisms, but no problem... at least, if you disclose from where you are coming, then we will end up (likely) recognizing that you were wrong at some , when the s-curve exponential growth likely continues... and the spurt to $1.3k and then the next spurt to $20k should have been decent signs of such s-curve exponential growth/adoption. 

Anyhow, surely it is fair enough for you to have those kinds of skeptical views of BTC and even to invest accordingly (careful not to risk too much on shorting, rather than merely selling BTC), and when BTC prices move between $12k and $18k in the coming year or two, you might start to reconsider your thinking, even if there is likely going to continue to be a lot of price volatility in that $12k and $18k price range.

Maybe you will adjust your perspective, and maybe not.. that is your freedom.. and then when BTC prices go shooting past $20k (which is going to become much more likely once we get within about 20% of previous ATH.. maybe getting above $17.5k or so is going to cause a kind of likely unstoppable upwards momentum).... That shooting past $20k is likely going to bring us to at least into the $30k area (and hopefully beyond), that will provide another opportunity for you to reconsider the lack of s-curve adoption in BTC, from your perspective. 

hahahaha.. I would say, "sucks to be you," but you are likely going to have several opportunities in the coming years to adjust your views.. to become somewhat less skeptical.. and seems that you have done decently well in BTC investments in the past.. at least some of your calls seem to have been fairly decent, even if the long-term bearishness does not really seem to be represented in bitcoin's long view - even though there have been some bearish bitcoin periods, too (2014 for sure and 2018.. but overall bullish, if you consider the whole period 2013 to 2019 with at least 3x or more profits, depending on various entry points that are still quite UP)..

[600watt]

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1108487927078674432
Are you currently contributing to bitcoin-core or other crypto ecosystem projects for free in your off-time? We’d like to pay you to do it full-time. If interested, DM @SqCrypto, and follow for updates on our progress. Thank you!

From the very first tweet of the thread:

#BitcoinTwitter and #CryptoTwitter! Square is ....

Interestingly, it seems like Jack wants to separate bitcoin from rest of crypto by calling:

Bitcoin = bitcoin
Altcoins = crypto

(...)

indeed, very interesting. that could lead to way less confusion.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Just woke up for a piss, blurry eyed checking phone - Over 4k - Happy days!
Now back to sleep

[JayJuanGee]

Just woke up for a piss, blurry eyed checking phone - Over 4k - Happy days!
Now back to sleep

Don't jinx us blurry head.

We are having a good time, here.

[Last of the V8s]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1954571.msg49365787#msg49365787
wow nice work
someone give us a quick run-down pls?

[Toxic2040]

Bitcoin is spreading like a virus.

Abstract

We illustrate, by way of example, that Bitcoin’s long-term price is non-random and can be modeled as a function of the logistic growth of number of users n over time. Using observed data for both Facebook and Bitcoin, we derive the relationships between price, number of users, and time, and show that the resulting market capitalizations likely follow a Gompertz sigmoid growth function. This function, historically used to describe the growth of biological organisms like bacteria, tumors, and viruses, likely has some application to network economics. We conclude that the long-term growth rate in users has considerable effect on the long-term price of bitcoin.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3356098

You can do to this page here  ^  and open the doc in a pdf. Interesting.

[Toxic2040]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1954571.msg49365787#msg49365787
wow nice work
someone give us a quick run-down pls?

Awesome bitcoiners donate 8btc(47.5k euros) to help children in Africa. Its taken awhile but the campaign is now complete and all is well. Still 3btc left over and could someone take over because running a charity is time consuming and a pain in the rear...600watt is a freakin legend...basically.

[Retina]

Just woke up for a piss, blurry eyed checking phone - Over 4k - Happy days!
Now back to sleep

it's nice isn't it? I was pretty psyched myself.

Yes now celebrate the party, for that.
Now Click image.

[bitserve]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1954571.msg49365787#msg49365787
wow nice work
someone give us a quick run-down pls?

Awesome bitcoiners donate 8btc(47.5k euros) to help children in Africa. Its taken awhile but the campaign is now complete and all is well. Still 3btc left over and could someone take over because running a charity is time consuming and a pain in the rear...600watt is a freakin legend...basically.

Indeed. I have lost the count of all the helping initiatives he has carried out. A freakin legend yeah, but above all a (extremely) good human in all senses from what I have read. Kudos and hats off to him. Wish all that karma to go back.

[Last of the V8s]

^wow splendid stuff, thanks^ wait but what's the bet part and how did it morph into the fundraiser?

now no one likes a fraudster
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lithuanian-man-pleads-guilty-to-100-million-fraud-against-google-facebook-11553126126

and no one likes Frances Coppola who is here (segment from 30:30) explaining MMT lol
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172w0q74bp46lc#play

[infofront]

Think its time for a new poll infofront. How about a simple yes/no vote to see if long time mtgox hodlers plan on dumping or if they are going to continue to stand fast at the Wall.

Your wish is my command. Here are the previous results:



Note: My own vote is not related to or indicative of my stash. It's the level I think will be necessary to achieve fuckyourcoiner status for an average person if offloaded at prudent price points during the next parabolic run.

Aaaaand new poll

[Retina]

Think its time for a new poll infofront. How about a simple yes/no vote to see if long time mtgox hodlers plan on dumping or if they are going to continue to stand fast at the Wall.

Your wish is my command. Here are the previous results:



Note: My own vote is not related to or indicative of my stash. It's the level I think will be necessary to achieve fuckyourcoiner status for an average person if offloaded at prudent price points during the next parabolic run.

Aaaaand new poll

I think all of the best decision that holds this time otherwise If need emergency anything so sell or exchange something.

[bitserve]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbvYeLxMKN8

[realr0ach]

In case you didn't know how serious of a problem it is allowing women to vote:

https://www.reddit.com/r/MGTOW/comments/b3gcdm/i_dont_think_i_have_ever_seen_a_man_share_crap/

[JayJuanGee]

Think its time for a new poll infofront. How about a simple yes/no vote to see if long time mtgox hodlers plan on dumping or if they are going to continue to stand fast at the Wall.

Your wish is my command. Here are the previous results:



Note: My own vote is not related to or indicative of my stash. It's the level I think will be necessary to achieve fuckyourcoiner status for an average person if offloaded at prudent price points during the next parabolic run.

Aaaaand new poll

Thanks for providing some polling variety in recent times, infofront.

From the totals, I do see that there was a bit of a scattering of the perception of achievement of "fuck you" status results, which seems to have been a considerable amount of poetic license from pollsters regarding interpretation, and even you, in your answer, stated a presumption of an upcoming upwards BTC price movement that caused your answer based on a speculated future rather than present actuality.       

[bitserve]

IIRC I chose 200-499 which is *WAY* more than I do have. But the question was to be a fuckyoucoiner, and that's what I would consider, not that I would ever become one (or need to to, in order to be happy and reasonably wealthy).

And I am taking into account some price rise in the future. Otherwise the amount would be higher... but not much more.

[infofront]

True Jay. Later in the year maybe we can try a similar poll with more precise timing, etc.


In other news: ADVFN International Finance Awards

There are a bunch of crypto awards in there - best exchanges, etc.

[shasan]

So, based on what you are saying, you bought some BTC in the $17k price arena, and is it fair for me to assume that you have bought some more BTC below $17k (like for example at some price points between $3122 and $17k)?

I have started at that time and bought on several phases. 12k, 8k, 7k, 6k, etc. When I have a little money to take a risk I buy BTC. Also, I will buy more if I can.

Yes.  One thing is having a set of BTC accumulation targets and a tentative plan for achieving "fuck you" status, and another thing is realizing that there exists a kind of BTC price dynamics that might cause greater abilities to accumulate more BTC and therefore increasing the likelihood of reaching preconceived targets and/or reaching such targets sooner.

Long term holders contribute to the market. As there will have some portion of locked. So do not need a buyer for that portion, buyer needs only for the rest of the portion.