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Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (1.6%)
<$10,000 - 3 (4.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 2 (3.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 13 (20.6%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 19 (30.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 8 (12.7%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 7 (11.1%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (3.2%)
>$13,000 - 3 (4.8%)
>$20,000 - 5 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 63

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22517251 times)
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Lambie Slayer
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March 09, 2019, 01:58:40 PM

[ edited out]

I missed the name calling on both sides. Glad we agree on the boilerplate part. As far as labeling our probabilities of future outcomes as guesses, I stand by that.

Maybe now, we are meandering into the extent to which guesses are involved in this whole matter, or how to categorize what is a guess?

In the past few hours, I have been attempting to reflect a bit on what point you have been attempting to make with your seeming ongoing desire and persistence to label what is going on as a "bull market" or a "baby bull market," and your earlier "baby bull market" kind of gives away what you are attempting to achieve.

Largely you are trying to argue that you are pretty convinced that for whatever reason you believe that the bottom is in, and this price downtrend is reversed.  You are trying to emphasize your point by labelling the matter as a baby bull market.  Some of the rest of the matters that you are throwing in are not as central to those kinds of main points that you are trying to make with your labelling our current status as a "bull market" or "baby bull market."  And, you are largely both attempting to be predictive with your implication that the "bottom is in", and you may end up being right, but you also seem to be attempting to provide a kind of spin doctor reality to the matter by suggesting that if we all begin to believe that the bottom is in then we will act in such a way that causes the description to fulfill the prescription.

I have called you a troll, and other similar names a few times, because I had been kind of questioning some of your exaggeration intentions; however, I may be developing a little more sympathy for your whole framing of the matter if I am correct about your intention to merely cause more bullish thinking that might assist to make what you want to be reality come true.

I don't have any problem with having bullish intentions, because as you likely pointed out several times, I am a bitcoin bull myself, and my investment practices and behaviors in bitcoin attempt to reflect my bitcoin bullish sentiments and beliefs.  Nonetheless, I question how much utility comes from what seems to me to be exaggerations that are likely NOT going to change the market anyhow, and could actually result in a lot of blowback when your seeming exaggerations end up NOT even coming close to coming true.

So, for me, it may be more of a personal tone matter in which I believe in having low expectations in order that it is way more likely that my expectations are going to be reached and exceeded - because I have found that if I create or follow higher expectations or exaggeration, then there is a real high likelihood that its going to end in a lot of disappointment when those exaggerations and high expectations are not reached.  

The scientific method is based on hypotheses which are educated guesses based on prior knowledge and observation.

You are getting into a different field here, and I doubt that we need to go down the "scientific method" road in order to understand what people do.  We are not scientists, but we still are easily capable of assigning various probabilities to future events and outcomes.  Some events and outcomes are highly probable and some are not, and each person is going to assign varying probabilities to various outcomes and the compounding of calculations which might involve pure guessing in some cases is likely going cause a whole hell of a lot of different views about the future, even if there is agreement on some aspects.  For example, both of us might assign a real high probability that the sun is going to come up tomorrow even if we have differing views about the dynamics that cause that.  Predicting human behavior and markets (that involve a lot of human behavior) are way more complicated, and we do not necessarily need scientific methods to attempt to employ various kinds of probability theory, even though sometimes people with scientific minds and thinking are going to have more specialized approaches, but there are a whole hell of a lot of really smart people and scientists who don't know what they fuck they are talking about in regards to bitcoin matters (even if they might have opinions about it).. hahahahahaha

Im not implying your guesses are random dart throws,

hahahahaha  good.... however, just the fact that you bring that up seems to show that you are assigning way more randomness to opinions than they likely deserve, including the opinions of yours truly.   Tongue Tongue

but the implication is we make our best guesses, based on prior knowledge and observation.

Fair enough about this point.

If you arent guessing, then you would be 100 percent certain.

There is no need to lump all aspects of knowledge into one category.  Like I attempted to describe above, there are certain categories of information that are more certain than others and even more undisputed.  Like we are going to agree about what is going to happen, so for example, if we talk about bitcoin's halvening, we can agree to a lot of aspects about it, and if we talk about how many BTCs are produced per 10 minutes and about how miners might increase or decrease their hashing power based on BTC price.  However, the more factors that we attempt to account, the harder it comes to both assign probabilities to the behavior or what kind of an impact those factors are going to have on the BTC price and even the extent to which one factor or another matters or how other people might view the event, including how much weight to give to BTC price momentum versus news versus fundamentals versus public perceptions or regulations.  

What I am trying to say is that we are going to weigh various factors differently, and even come to differing weighing of their impact on bitcoin and there will also be some guessing involved too.  Some people have access to more information, and do not have to guess as much as others about certain aspects, but still it is quite likely that no one really knows while at the same time no one is completely guessing about everything either.  By the way, some people seem to make some of their guesses/predictions based on a combination of numerology and conspiracy theories about bitcoin manipulation, and sometimes they might end up being correct, too.

Basically you might not prefer my word choice(no worries), but it is accurate based on widely accepted definitions.

There are word choices and there can also be questions about what factors are being considered and how much weight is given to factors and how much pure guessing might be going on.


As for answering your last questions. These are good questions and while I do enjoy sharing my hypothesis that the bottom is in and the bull market is upon us, I at this time am not willing to share all of the inner workings and procedures that led to this decision, so I will have to respectfully decline those questions.

That above is a real bullshit and seemingly disingenuous troll answer.  I had made questions that are so easy peasy that almost any genuine poster should have been able to at least make some kind of stab at disclosing which BTC price points or what factors caused them to arrive at their conclusion about when the bull market or "baby bull market" in this case and your terms was triggered and/or entered into.  

The fact that you don't even make any kind of reasonable attempt shows that you are either acting disingenuously (as a kind of troll), that you are a dumbass (I don't think that is the case, by the way) or that you are purely making shit up (guessing) just for the mere sake of it.

In other words, based on your already demonstration of writing and analyzing abilities (including your demonstration of your detailed trolling efforts aimed largely at roach and gembitz), it should be quite easy for you to write out something like this:

>>>>>>>>Between December 7 and December 15, I saw that the bears had put in a lot of effort to attempt to bring the BTC price down, and the best that they got on December 15 was $3,122.  Subsequently, by December 21 and December 25, the BTC price rebounded to $4,100 and $4,200 respectively.  At no later point have the bears been able to bring the BTC price down below $3,300.....blah blah blah<<<<<<

You should have easily been able to come up with some kind of plausible and seemingly genuine bullshit ideas to show that you are at least attempting to make an effort in the right direction, but instead you play the "trade secrets" phoney baloney card... Your handler told you to say something like that?  hahahahahaha


Some of my knowledge and procedures I consider to be "proprietary" for lack of a better word. Im not selling anything to anyone, but it is the fruit of my labor from 16 years of investing and trading so I will keep the sauce recipe to myself.

Oh my!!!!! I have heard this kind of nonsense before when I troll attempts to avoid answering by playing both the expertise card and the trade secrets card.  

Not believe-able.  You gotta try harder.. or actually try less hard.  Being genuine does not take a lot of effort, but when you are not genuine, your bullshit will tend to seep through, which likely shows that my time is being wasted attempting to explain some of these basic concepts to a disingenuous poster..

I will be serving that sauce though on Bear Meat to anyone who would like a sample Grin

Not convincing... after reading your previous few sentences.

Bravo, that may have been your longest post ever. I am honored Wink You are on the money on most parts but as for the spin doctor part. Its an interesting conjecture on your part, but no Im not trying to influence the market. I cant imagine any situation where a few hundred posts over 5 years would ever have any influence whatsoever. Surprised you would even think I might bother attempting that but its still kinda interesting, I mean WO is the CEO of Bitcoin and all the banker bigwigs are probably reading this to learn about Bitcoin. Roll Eyes

As for the last part. You wanted to know exactly why I believed the bottom was in. To give you an in depth and candid answer would require my fairly complicated trading/investing procedures that are very unorthodox and completely a product of my own sweat and creative energy over 16 years. Its not about which TA metric did I willy nilly pick out of a book and I dont want to tell you which one it is. If I had copied it from someone else Id have no problem sharing it. Im being completely truthful about this, and I cant imagine why this would be hard to believe.

I would think that many people have developed unique ways to analyze available info without resorting to being a drone like Tone Vays and counting to 9 over and over. Grin Its not so much its a trade secret and someone will steal it if I share all my methods, its more that I have no benefit to share them and dont feel like having to go through a tedious process of explaining things that would be time consuming for me to communicate effectively just so strangers on the web can critique them or whatever else they want to do. Answering your questions completely would be a major imposition on my time and privacy and doesnt benefit me in any way, so I politely declined.

If it was a simple run of the mill answer like you gave example to above, I would be happy to share that, but its not so I declined.

Pretty fair and reasonable and very believable if you can imagine that many people out there who are heavily involved in any activity such as trading, investing, making bbq sauce, cooking pies, running a business, etc. for over a decade might have come up with some unique insights, methods, and practices that they prefer not to put on display.

If you cant imagine those kind of people are out there in large numbers, then ok, no problem Im not offended if you dont believe me and think everyone is a drone reading books on bollinger bands and watching Tone Vays count to 9 on youtube Grin

Good chat. Have a wonderful 84th day of the new Baby Bull Market. Stack Satoshis Saturday is upon us. Cheesy





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JayJuanGee
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March 09, 2019, 02:07:47 PM

The price since February going forward has been in a bullish trend, somebody called weeks it back and on weekly bars its fairly clear.

I have been bullish since 22 January and remain of the view that the bottom is in.

It is time to put away the bear suit and bear talk.


Woo... an exact conversion date, too.

Strange (in the ironic sense).  It seems to me that bitserve allegedly capitulated after you allegedly turned unbearish, aka "bullish" in your current words.
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March 09, 2019, 02:11:47 PM

Now I’m worried because I don’t know who Ian Balina is

I didn't know either, but searched and found out:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Diaryofamademan
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March 09, 2019, 02:16:11 PM
Merited by bitserve (1)

Tech support here? my scroll wheel started smoking when reading this topic?



Submerge it in water, that should help with the smoking.

BLeh, I don't think drowning JJG would work. As I already said, he is antifragile.

More fragile than you might gather from the surface.   Shocked
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March 09, 2019, 02:37:49 PM
Last edit: March 09, 2019, 03:36:19 PM by bitcoinPsycho

must go up up up

Wait for it....

Wait for it....
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March 09, 2019, 02:39:20 PM

[edited out]

Bravo, that may have been your longest post ever. I am honored Wink

NOT...   

You are on the money on most parts but as for the spin doctor part. Its an interesting conjecture on your part, but no Im not trying to influence the market. I cant imagine any situation where a few hundred posts over 5 years would ever have any influence whatsoever. Surprised you would even think I might bother attempting that but its still kinda interesting, I mean WO is the CEO of Bitcoin and all the banker bigwigs are probably reading this to learn about Bitcoin. Roll Eyes

Some troll posters seem to have had those kinds of presumptions here, historically.  Though in recent months, it does seem to me that trolling here is generally down, unless they have gotten more sophisticated?    You guys have been replaced by bots, perhaps?  Cheaper for the lizard overlords to attempt to employ bots, and bots are getting smarter, too.

As for the last part. You wanted to know exactly why I believed the bottom was in. To give you an in depth and candid answer would require my fairly complicated trading/investing procedures that are very unorthodox and completely a product of my own sweat and creative energy over 16 years.

You think I would believe that level of bullshit explanation?  Get real... you almost deserve a batman/robin slap gif, for that comment.

By the way, I am not asking for any kind of "in depth" answer, just anything quasi-plausible would be better than your bullshit evasiveness about something so goddamned simple.

Its not about which TA metric did I willy nilly pick out of a book and I dont want to tell you which one it is. If I had copied it from someone else Id have no problem sharing it. Im being completely truthful about this, and I cant imagine why this would be hard to believe.

When posters use words like these:  "Im being completely truthful about this," it is time to run for the hills.



I would think that many people have developed unique ways to analyze available info without resorting to being a drone like Tone Vays and counting to 9 over and over. Grin Its not so much its a trade secret and someone will steal it if I share all my methods, its more that I have no benefit to share them and dont feel like having to go through a tedious process of explaining things that would be time consuming for me to communicate effectively just so strangers on the web can critique them or whatever else they want to do. Answering your questions completely would be a major imposition on my time and privacy and doesnt benefit me in any way, so I politely declined.

Oh my!!!!   When I thought that the explanation could not get any worse.  It did.   Roll Eyes

If it was a simple run of the mill answer like you gave example to above, I would be happy to share that, but its not so I declined.

I gave the example to show how easy an answer could be, and i don't see how responding could be any more convoluted than that, and your ability to make your answer (response) so stupidly convoluted shows your shit fulledness levels.

Pretty fair and reasonable and very believable if you can imagine that many people out there who are heavily involved in any activity such as trading, investing, making bbq sauce, cooking pies, running a business, etc. for over a decade might have come up with some unique insights, methods, and practices that they prefer not to put on display.

Even more nonsense.  If the above is not an example of overly nonsense, I am not sure what would be.

If you cant imagine those kind of people are out there in large numbers, then ok, no problem Im not offended if you dont believe me and think everyone is a drone reading books on bollinger bands and watching Tone Vays count to 9 on youtube Grin
and even more... go figure?

Good chat. Have a wonderful 84th day of the new Baby Bull Market. Stack Satoshis Saturday is upon us. Cheesy

Stack satoshis might have been your only decent point in that whole post.  Oh my.
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March 09, 2019, 03:10:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


Ultimately  geen will win
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March 09, 2019, 03:12:33 PM

Tech support here? my scroll wheel started smoking when reading this topic?



Submerge it in water, that should help with the smoking.

BLeh, I don't think drowning JJG would work. As I already said, he is antifragile.

More fragile than you might gather from the surface.   Shocked

I gave you merit for the brief, concise and to the point reply. That's the way to go Smiley
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March 09, 2019, 03:42:21 PM

I just noticed now, is it possible to do arbitrage on this exchanges?

$4,554.09 -  LakeBTC
$4,461.34   -  IDAX
$4,418.42 -  BiteBTC
$4,417.94 -  Bit-Z


https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
bitserve
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March 09, 2019, 03:44:57 PM

I just noticed now, is it possible to do arbitrage on this exchanges?

$4,554.09 -  LakeBTC
$4,461.34   -  IDAX
$4,418.42 -  BiteBTC
$4,417.94 -  Bit-Z


https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

The difference in price already tells you how difficult/risky is to arbitrage for each of them. Possible? Yeah. Worthy? Your call.

Not my cup of tea.
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March 09, 2019, 04:16:39 PM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

^^
Bitserve in descapitulation, I'm glad. Cool

Not yet, my friend. Maybe somewhat neutral at this time, but I still think we are far away from a solid bull run. Still not even sure the bottom is already and definitely in.
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March 09, 2019, 04:18:47 PM
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Good morning guys.

1h


4h


D

#stronghands'19
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March 09, 2019, 04:21:04 PM

^^
Bitserve in descapitulation, I'm glad. Cool

I reckon he’s just superstitious & doesn’t want to jinx it. In reality he’s checking the price every couple of hours dressed as a bull holding a green dildo Cheesy

There's some of truth in there Smiley
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March 09, 2019, 04:27:41 PM

Closing in on $4000 on Bearstamp, $4k+ already on Finex.  Cool
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March 09, 2019, 04:47:22 PM
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Just a friendly reminder of some aantonop goodness coming up in 15 minutes if interested.

Crypto-Winter to the North, Crypto-Summer to the South.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wqAw9onTrM


And another PSA.

https://www.quora.com/What-does-Google-know-about-me/answer/Gabriel-Weinberg

#dyor  #btd
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March 09, 2019, 05:09:07 PM

https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2019/03/us-marshals-want-help-disposing-virtual-currencies/155381/
Quote
Stored cryptocurrencies must be kept in a segregated digital wallet set aside specifically for the Marshals Service and must be safeguarded against “theft, human error, system failures and acts of God,” the documents state. The contractor must also be able to “brute force,” or be able to hack into, wallets that are “locked by error or technical difficulties,” enabling marshals to gain access no matter what happens.

On the disposal side, the winning vendor must be able to convert the digital currencies to physical money, either by exchanging directly to U.S. dollars, exchanging for more liquid virtual currencies and assets or through a sealed-bid auction. The contractor must also have a mechanism for returning seized assets to the original owners when required.
....
Has anyone made projections on potential permanent loss of Bitcoins resulting from seizure due to criminal activity over time?

Why would a seizure count as a permanent loss?  Those Bitcoins get auctioned. Yes luckily for them it takes years, specially in countries with slow court system, to actually auction them. But they are definitely not lost.
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March 09, 2019, 05:12:42 PM
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https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1104379821864439808

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March 09, 2019, 05:23:50 PM

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1104377573725925377

Last of the V8s
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March 09, 2019, 05:28:00 PM

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March 09, 2019, 05:56:15 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Other than a couple of minor wobbles we've been going mostly sideways with a slight upward drift... currently $3917USD/$5255CAD (Bitcoinaverage).
_____

Stuck in the frozen north for a few more days. Spring break is playing havoc with the airlines. Couldn't get a reasonably priced flight until Wednesday.

Gotta get back. Got work in progress that has to be done before the 26th.

In the meantime, go Bitcoin go.
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