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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25460281 times)
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March 08, 2019, 08:50:32 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.
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March 08, 2019, 08:56:38 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

$3320 today would already do so (unless its an intra-week downspike) as it's below the weekly MA200.

And if spikes above $6k on the weekly bull market would be 100% confirmed. No need to wait 2 months (daily MA200 is at $5k and weekly MA50 is at $6k).
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March 08, 2019, 09:05:22 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

Best case/worst case maybe? Regardless, within 14 months it seems a pretty safe bet we will at least be 2x from where we are today. Carry on.

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March 08, 2019, 09:06:18 PM

The European Central Bank announced today they will be handing out some "fresh funding" for banks.

It's their temporary solution to a system wide problem.

Creating money for them is as simple as clicking a button.

Buy bitcoin, bye banks. 🔥

https://twitter.com/alecziupsnys/status/1103705808695713793?s=21

Serious printing will start after they will start buying Bitcoin.






Today while reading that in my country females finally got to only 5% lower salaries then the men, what would sort of look fine if there would not be 30% more females college graduates then men.  I was thinking. We are at the brink of the biggest redistribution of wealth in human history. It is happening right now. And where are females? They will manage to skip it again. Let men take everything back. This world is so cruel.
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March 08, 2019, 09:10:10 PM

I might be alone with this but this modern day political correctness shit is annoying. I’m not interested in International Women’s Day.

Sounds like a load of bull shit to me.
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March 08, 2019, 09:13:11 PM
Last edit: March 09, 2019, 12:37:55 AM by wachtwoord
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The European Central Bank announced today they will be handing out some "fresh funding" for banks.

It's their temporary solution to a system wide problem.

Creating money for them is as simple as clicking a button.

Buy bitcoin, bye banks. 🔥

https://twitter.com/alecziupsnys/status/1103705808695713793?s=21

Serious printing will start after they will start buying Bitcoin.






Today while reading that in my country females finally got to only 5% lower salaries then the men, what would sort of look fine if there would not be 30% more females college graduates then men.  I was thinking. We are at the brink of the biggest redistribution of wealth in human history. It is happening right now. And where are females? They will manage to skip it again. Let men take everything back. This world is so cruel.

Women (as a group) still get pregnant and have babies and are generally more often sick than men. Any free market would give them a discount (on average) and 5% is not enough (it's only this low because of government intervention). Look at individuals, many women are highly successful and make a boatload of cash!

Not everyone is equal I'm sorry.
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March 08, 2019, 09:16:45 PM

I might be alone with this but this modern day political correctness shit is annoying. I’m not interested in International Women’s Day.

Sounds like a load of bull shit to me.

 Neither are the Turks it seems.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/turkish-police-tear-gas-crowd-attempting-banned-womens-day-march
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March 08, 2019, 09:18:30 PM

I might be alone with this but this modern day political correctness shit is annoying. I’m not interested in International Women’s Day.

Sounds like a load of bull shit to me.

 Neither are the Turks it seems.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/turkish-police-tear-gas-crowd-attempting-banned-womens-day-march


Haha, that’s a bit far Cheesy
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March 08, 2019, 09:18:44 PM



YouTube link. https://youtu.be/Cfg6rQaHn0s
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March 08, 2019, 09:21:24 PM
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@JJG - If I’m honest I’m way more invested in bitcoin than any sane person would be. I have a house with a mortgage on, an apartment that I rent out (it also has a mortgage on).

I have £40,000 in a shit UK fiat bank ISA savings account with 0.1% annual interest (a compensation pay out for a bad car accident I had 10 years ago - caused by a drunk driver).

Apart from that I’m all in on bitcoin. Most sensible people would buy 3 or 4 more apartments & rent them out & probably be set for life but I believe in bitcoin so much. I’m a risk taker & I will become a millionaire through crypto, I’m very certain of it.

Any way that’s my fucking shitty story Cheesy

Probably all of us have some shitty aspects to our personal stories, and it is really difficult to measure our own particular selves with the mean.  There is some aspect of everyone who is crazy when we investigate into their particulars, but then when it comes to learning about a certain topic, bitcoin, in this case.  There seems to be such a lopsided gamble taking place in terms of what the actual odds seem to be. 

I still suggest that everyone preserve themselves in case the lopsided bargain does not play out... so in that regard, if we are going to leverage in bitcoin, we have to be very careful that the terms of that leverage are not so drastic that we would be killed in the less likely bitcoin to zero scenario.

Maybe it takes a couple of bubbles (and cushions of equity) to really relax.  You keep suggesting that the next bitcoin bubble has a decent chance of sufficiently putting you over to the top in that relax mode.  I personally feel like I am more relaxed than you, but I still want the next bubble and really am looking forward to it. 

For me, it would be like going from regular rich to bordering on filthy rich.. at least in my own kind of mental framing of the situation of how much beyond my bare minimums or my expected lifestyle I would be able to live.   

Remember the link that V8 posted the other day about the billionaire diamond trader?  We just gotta keep matters in perspective, and even what we might end up considering as a low risk investment into something like penis enlargement ends up killing us, and likely it would have been better to forgo such treatment, even though we never would have thought the end result was so unacceptable and personally costly.
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March 08, 2019, 09:26:20 PM

@JJG - You’re definitely a more relaxed person than me. I’m quite an anxious guy, I get uptight & don’t find it easy to relax. I’ve always been that way though.
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March 08, 2019, 09:31:25 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

hahahahaha

I guess my thinking is not straight on the topic then.  My idea of minimum standards and anti-fragility might be pie in the sky?  Perhaps?  because I do not consider bitcoin to be dead under those kinds of extreme flat conditions... though if it really does happen, then I might reconsider if I believe that, then, it is time to convert from thinking of the BTC price situation as a bull market and having had transformed out of our current ongoing bear market (until otherwise*) status.'

(*o.k.  Lambie, I am stealing some of your descriptive choices and reframing such descriptions in my own way of thinking about the matter.. you probably stole that phraseology first, so I am not too worried about it.   Tongue Tongue)
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March 08, 2019, 09:35:15 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

$3320 today would already do so (unless its an intra-week downspike) as it's below the weekly MA200.

And if spikes above $6k on the weekly bull market would be 100% confirmed. No need to wait 2 months (daily MA200 is at $5k and weekly MA50 is at $6k).

That is why I have my own conditions in order for me to consider the transformation from bearmarket to bullmarket.  Of course, I reserve the right to change my conditions at any time, and I am NOT tied to what traditional charts tell me to place the probabilities or at what price points (or timelines) they tell me to do so.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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March 08, 2019, 09:36:43 PM

pathetic liquidity
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March 08, 2019, 09:40:59 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

Best case/worst case maybe? Regardless, within 14 months it seems a pretty safe bet we will at least be 2x from where we are today. Carry on.



Except those three are not all of the possible scenarios.  Those three do not exhaust the possibility of another scenario in which the BTC price drops below $3,320 which brings a different (and likely even more bearish scenario), though a related branch of analysis that is likely on the same tree, but a different part of the tree.....   Tongue Tongue
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March 08, 2019, 09:54:01 PM
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pathetic liquidity

Drink more fluids
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March 08, 2019, 10:01:41 PM

tell that to ETH
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March 08, 2019, 10:03:31 PM

Quite a drop here.
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March 08, 2019, 10:06:33 PM

Buy the fucking Dip!
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March 08, 2019, 10:07:53 PM

For those to care to translate it:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Bundesregierung-plant-digitale-Wertpapiere-article20896561.html
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