Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chriswilmer]

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)

I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

Just plotted it, I stand corrected!

For high enough powers, it will look like a step-function on a linear plot but a "corner" shape (i.e., exactly vertical and then exactly horizontal) on a log plot, my bad!

So yes, it will never look super-exponential. Sorry!

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[maz]

$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.

One word: Volume.

Despite gox's problem, they have the highest volume and the most amount of experience handling the most amount of money. You could probably trust bitstamp with that much money, but good luck buying a million dollars without radically changing the price and losing to slippage.

Gox has problems, but they always sort them out- supposidly the larger you are a client, the faster they sort things out too. :-)  

Agreed. There are a lot of old traders and early adopter coins there. Despite their issues, they were first in the game and have the most market depth to purchase/trade large amounts of coins. I would not be surprised at all to hear they have private deals with big investors.

The biggest factor for using gox with me is the trust issue. Not that I trust they wont be shit at exchanging, but I semi-trust they are in this for the long run and they are established. My biggest fear is whilst leaving my coins/fiat on an exchange they get seized by their local gov or they disappear with all users coins. This risk is real with BTCChina, as the Chinese government already did this with QQ's trading commodity, then there's Bitstamp, who's bank is based in Slovenia, they could easily do a 'Bitcoin-24' to their user's. Gox however has stood the test of time so-far. For which i can at least applaud them and have a sense of security in them.

[Joenaes]

In Belgium a popular stock magazine had a survey about bitcoin, I will post the google translate version here (not perfect, but guess it brings the message across):

I want to the results of the "Bitcoin survey" with you. I received 7,832 responses.

Really cool that everyone participated. Flocking here

The results then.

The first question.

Bitcoin is ...

A bubbler (32%)
Considerable promise and potential is huge (25%)
Totally unintelligible (43%)

The important lesson here is that most investors still do not know what to think. It is still elusive. To new and unknown, so to speak.

Next question.

Have you already bought Bitcoins?

Yes (5%)
No, I'm not going to (55%)
No, but I consider it (40%)

Only a small group of investors have already done something. And 5% who actually gives a wrong impression. A large part of those investors Macro Trends subscribers.

Ask the same question elsewhere and are no more than 2% -3%.

The group that is considering buying Bitcoins is quite large.

What these people holds today, is knowledge.

Been there, done that.

Keep in mind that this is for people that already invest in stocks, still only 5% actually invested in btc and probably 90% of them still for small amounts.
Just a sign that we are still (very) early adopters imo.

[chriswilmer]

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)

I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

Just plotted it, I stand corrected!

For high enough powers, it will look like a step-function on a linear plot but a "corner" shape (i.e., exactly vertical and then exactly horizontal) on a log plot, my bad!

So yes, it will never look super-exponential. Sorry!

If I could say one thing in my defense though, if you modify f(x) slightly by adding a constant epislon (a teency weency "intrinsic value", say epsilon = 0.001), then it looks like a step function on both the linear and log plots for very high powers.

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))^n + epislon

where n -> infinity

[600watt]

The Internet Archive recently suffered from a fire. They take Bitcoins

http://archive.org/donate/

Lol, no matter what century we live in, archives still suffer from fires. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_patent_office_fire_of_1836

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Personnel_Records_Center_fire

in germany they just collapse.


former archive of the city of cologne.

[Carlor]

Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.

E. Snowden maybe? Or Wikileaks?
But I would like to see more charities accepting btc, I mean it wouldn't be hard to implement and they could only win. Wrote to a few already but they don't want my btc, just my fiat.

[Drabla]

In Belgium a popular stock magazine had a survey about bitcoin

Could you post the link or give the magazin name & date? Thx :>

[ag@th0s]

Ripple is based on trust. it will fail.

All transactions are based on trust.  Since mankind first began bartering.

They're based on Trust because Fear is the backstop.  All beasts are resource dependent and vulnerable - none of us are Gods. I'm agnostic about Ripple, but either I'm an imbecile or I just can't put together in my head how it actually works.  

It works on the theory that when that guy borrowed that tool, you actually get it back.

Tool lending?  That's just about the most stressful lending in the universe.

[micalith]

Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.

E. Snowden maybe? Or Wikileaks?
But I would like to see more charities accepting btc, I mean it wouldn't be hard to implement and they could only win. Wrote to a few already but they don't want my btc, just my fiat.

https://bitme.com/donate

I wonder if it's well received, whether the red cross might start accepting if someone proposes it to them

[Richy_T]

fucking saved

Needed fixing

[the_sunship]

perfect!

[ChartBuddy]

[Joenaes]

In Belgium a popular stock magazine had a survey about bitcoin

Could you post the link or give the magazin name & date? Thx :>

http://www.beurs.com/2013/11/22/2000-vlaamse-nederlandse-beleggers-zien-gigantisch-potentieel-in-bitcoin/35233

[nagnagnag2]

sum_bid: 34,740,221 USD | sum_ask: 25,975 BTC | ratio: 1,337.43 USD/BTC

[italeffect]

The biggest factor for using gox with me is the trust issue. Not that I trust they wont be shit at exchanging, but I semi-trust they are in this for the long run and they are established. My biggest fear is whilst leaving my coins/fiat on an exchange they get seized by their local gov or they disappear with all users coins. This risk is real with BTCChina, as the Chinese government already did this with QQ's trading commodity, then there's Bitstamp, who's bank is based in Slovenia, they could easily do a 'Bitcoin-24' to their user's. Gox however has stood the test of time so-far. For which i can at least applaud them and have a sense of security in them.

I completely agree. Having used Gox since May of '11 and gone through all the various things that have happened. I reluctantly trust them more than the other players. Horrible communication? Yep. Poor (scripted) customer service? Yep. Not much has changed in over 2 years. But I certainly keep lower balances there at any given time then I used to, given the potential loss risk.

[miningnew]

Boring price movement

[Pruden]

fucking saved

Needed fixing

Thank you, mate.

[YoYa]

Go on...DO IT.....DOOOO IT NAOOOW......Light the fuse, get this rocket started!

Surely there's someone here with enough fiat on hand to start the avalanche?

[BitchicksHusband]

I don't think it works that way.

The volatility will get LESS the more people that are involved, not more.

$32->$2 (94% drop)
$266->$60 (77% drop)
$900-> $453 (50% drop)

Don't be surprised if the next bubble only has a drop of (25%-33%).

Someday, when there are 1 billion people in bitcoin, $1 billion leaving the market will affect everyone by $1.  See how that works?

[micalith]

oh dear, it's the weekend. No more new money in until Monday

I may have read somewhere (here?) that Chinese banks are open on Saturdays though...