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Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25495136 times)
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LFC_Bitcoin
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March 08, 2020, 07:55:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Plan B’s latest tweet -

PlanB
@100trillionUSD

#bitcoin  S2F chart adjusted for today's "crash" ... nothing really happened, btc still spot on S2F track



https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1236741267440259072?s=21
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March 08, 2020, 07:55:36 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)


No someone explain me:

  • What's wrong with Italy? (More death than any other countries, considering Positives: i.e. fatality rate?
  • What's wrong with Germany (Positives in line with other countries, no deaths)
  • What's wrong with US/UK (Very few death considering the positives)





I do think the problem is the data source for the stats. There may be differences in health system but not that much.

Things that I think could be relevant here:

- What percentage of the population has been tested for infection? If you only test the ones that come to the hospital in a very ill state you will surely have a very high death rate in comparison to the positives.

- As soon as the hospitals are overhelmed, the death rate do increase... probably a lot.

- If you don't test anyone, all deaths would be attributed to the secondary symptoms instead of the virus.

- There could be genetic and environmental differences, but no study has properly evidenced those.

- There are cultural differences in which citizens of some countries go to the hospital even for a little cold... and those that only go there when they are almost diying.

- There could be differences in the medical treatments... but I assume this would be coordinated and basically the same everywhere. It could be different in an earlier stage but now they all should know better. Or maybe not.........

Main reason, anyways, I would attribute to skewed statistics.

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March 08, 2020, 07:58:48 PM

<...>
UPDATE:
Quote
The situation in Italy: March 8, 2020, 6.00 p.m.
POSITIVE 6387
DECEASED 366
HEALED 622


Press conference of the Head of Civil Protection Angelo Borrelli at 6 pm on 7 March:

7375 people who contracted the virus, currently positive 6387, 366 died and 622 recovered.
Among the 5061 positives:

2180 are found in home isolation
3557 hospitalized with symptoms
650 in intensive care

A lot more infected than registered... .

A couple of graphs I made myself on the John Hopkins University Database


Please note the logarithmic scale.

No someone explain me:

  • What's wrong with Italy? (More death than any other countries, considering Positives: i.e. fatality rate?
  • What's wrong with Germany (Positives in line with other countries, no deaths)
  • What's wrong with US/UK (Very few death considering the positives)

Fatality Rate computed for your convenience:

Code:
Region   Positives  Death  P/D
China    80652      3070   3.81%
Italy    7375       366    4.96%
Germany  799        0      0
Spain    500        10     0.02%
US       2584       16     0.62%
UK       206        2      0.97%


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March 08, 2020, 08:01:32 PM

Given Trump seems actively involved in trying to cover up US cases of Covid-19, I now think there is a better than 50% chance this will bring him down.

Maybe. He scrapped the pandemic team in 2018. Then the tests they were using (in spite of tried-and-tested better ones being available) didn't work.  

Also, they have only managed to test around 6,000 people, while the UK has tested 25,000 and other countries are way ahead (Korea is at 170,000).  This is more concerning.

Not testing means figures for 'cases' are meaningless.  It does not mean 'there are no cases' if no large scale testing is in place.... and with no centralised chain of command to collate data and coordinate efforts, things are not looking like they got off to a good start. Plus 28% of people have no easy access to any healthcare and, oh yeah - with no statutory sick pay rules, people have an incentive to go to work rather than stay at home if they are ill.

America is at risk of being found systemically ill-prepared.  

I am guessing we are about to see how a lack of a universal care system (not the norm in first world countries) works in a real time experiment.

Then again if it is #justaflu, I am sure it will all be OK and Trump will come up smelling of roses, he seems just the man for the job.

EDIT: @HM I think you covered a little extra than I first read - and better than I did. 

Trump will go down together with his Titanic stock market, his comedia del arte energy indepency and be shot midship by the little critter with bubble needles!
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March 08, 2020, 08:02:41 PM

Edit:

Filipone your numbers are out of date.  

There are 19 fatalities in the USA as of 30 minute ago with 484 cases.  

Which gives a fatality rate of about 4%

Given the total lack of testing in the USA I would say both the case rate and the death rate are too low.
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March 08, 2020, 08:04:01 PM

you guys are considering that we're dealing with x mutations of the virus in the meantime, right?

EDIT: so to be crystal clear. every mutation has it's own characteristic and therefore we have different results in several parts of the world.
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March 08, 2020, 08:04:16 PM


UK       206        2      0.97%

2 deaths from 206 positivies is a 0.097%. If they were using a simple spreadsheet that kind of error should not happen. That's why we can not trust any of those figures, and much less the skewed stats used as a data source.
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March 08, 2020, 08:08:15 PM


UK       206        2      0.97%

2 deaths from 206 positivies is a 0.097%. If they were using a simple spreadsheet that kind of error should not happen. That's why we can not trust any of those figures, and much less the skewed stats used as a data source.

No country or regime is providing correct data. All is massaged to avoid panic. We see per day cases, deaths, recovered but not the number of people tested... .
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March 08, 2020, 08:10:22 PM

Edit:

Filipone your numbers are out of date.  

There are 19 fatalities in the USA as of 30 minute ago with 484 cases.  

Which gives a fatality rate of about 4%



Similar in Spain with the latest figures:

600 infected, 17 deaths -> almost 3%

It's too soon to have accurate percentages with that small samples (of deaths).
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March 08, 2020, 08:11:12 PM

Quote
White House coronavirus threat downplayed as US infections surge
Jacob Greber
Mar 8, 2020 — 2.56pm


Washington | White House officials downplayed chances President Donald Trump or Vice President Mike Pence came in contact with a coronavirus-infected person at a top annual conservative conference they attended in Maryland late last month.

As the number of deaths in the US rose to 19 and reported cases jumped above 440 on Saturday (Sunday AEDT) from just under 300 on Friday, organisers of the Conservative Political Action Conference said one of their attendees had tested positive.

Mr Trump, who has been widely criticised for downplaying the crisis, said when asked at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida about the coronavirus getting closer to the White House: “I’m not concerned at all.”
But in a sign of the outbreak’s accelerating spread, New York state governor Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency that takes in the world’s most important financial centre. Countless conferences and festivals were cancelled across the nation, while the list of states impacted added Kansas and Virginia.
The District of Columbia, which hosts the White House, reported its first “presumptive positive case” late on Saturday.
Markets are likely to continue their wild ride this week after another Wall Street fall on Friday despite a robust 273,000 payroll number for February.
The jitters are being driven by concern over America’s official response to the health crisis which centres on a lack of available testing kits that have left policymakers blind to the true scale of the problem.
Quote
I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault.
— US President Donald Trump
Mr Trump was widely derided for saying on Friday that he preferred passengers on a cruise ship with potentially hundreds of infected passengers off San Francisco didn’t come onshore because that would drive up the official US count.
“I would rather because I like the numbers being where they are,” he said. “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault.”
So far American labs have done 5861 tests, a number that officials expect to rise sharply in coming days and weeks as more kits are made available.


Pence admits US doesn't have enough testing kits

The last week has been a reminder of the benefits of international collaboration and trust in fixing health emergencies with global financial implications, said Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council.
“What we’re learning – in real-time, Darwinian fashion – is that proactive countries, societies and individuals are performing far better than reactive ones,” he said on Saturday.
“Governments that engage in truth-telling are heading off dangers faster than those that obfuscate or delay.”
The US and Europe should take the crisis as a wake-up call to their “excessive dependence” on China for supply chains that range from drugs to rare-earth metals.
“Perhaps the most important lesson of the past weeks of coronavirus is that the recent rise of authoritarianism globally and the rise of populism and nationalism among Western-style democracies provide a poor recipe for sound, trusted, experienced management of an unfolding global health emergency,” Mr Kempe said.
As US businesses, governments and households try to manage their obligations, the list of big events affected continued to grow.
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March 08, 2020, 08:18:12 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)


No someone explain me:

  • What's wrong with Italy? (More death than any other countries, considering Positives: i.e. fatality rate?
  • What's wrong with Germany (Positives in line with other countries, no deaths)
  • What's wrong with US/UK (Very few death considering the positives)





I do think the problem is the data source for the stats. There may be differences in health system but not that much.

Things that I think could be relevant here:

- What percentage of the population has been tested for infection? If you only test the ones that come to the hospital in a very ill state you will surely have a very high death rate in comparison to the positives.

- As soon as the hospitals are overhelmed, the death rate do increase... probably a lot.

- If you don't test anyone, all deaths would be attributed to the secondary symptoms instead of the virus.

- There could be genetic and environmental differences, but no study has properly evidenced those.

- There are cultural differences in which citizens of some countries go to the hospital even for a little cold... and those that only go there when they are almost diying.

- There could be differences in the medical treatments... but I assume this would be coordinated and basically the same everywhere. It could be different in an earlier stage but now they all should know better. Or maybe not.........

Main reason, anyways, I would attribute to skewed statistics.



One german died today in hurgada (egypt).
He was there since a week.

German infections are relatively "young" and they  started with intensive testing and contact tracing in the beginning.
In Italy, friendly kisses and hugs are part of the culture. This also adds to the explosive increase, also many elderly there. They say it's because of extensive use of olive oil in their cooking.
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March 08, 2020, 08:19:31 PM

Leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they’re preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds.


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March 08, 2020, 08:22:03 PM

a bitcoin meetup in VR Huh
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March 08, 2020, 08:25:23 PM

you guys are considering that we're dealing with x mutations of the virus in the meantime, right?

EDIT: so to be crystal clear. every mutation has it's own characteristic and therefore we have different results in several parts of the world.

A german virologist (don't remember his name) said in an interview on NDR (afair) that mutations are not too bad, because viruses tend to mutate into variants that don't kill the host for effectiveness of the spreading. Makes sense. The interview was available online this week, i didn't find a link, might have watched it on the smartphone.

EDIT:

Forgot it's sunday
wife is still sick a little
time to post again

#lifehaiku

the corn is falling
but i am out of fiat
fuck, i do not care

#charthaiku
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March 08, 2020, 08:27:32 PM

So the WH downplays corona after banning travel early on while the WHO clearly stated not to restrict travel or trade?

And Trump is going to be hurt by corona by candidates that are for open borders and free health care for illegals instead of Americans?

I mean, I get that the overwhelming majority of people on this planet is mentally impaired, but come on.
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March 08, 2020, 08:29:45 PM

In Italy, friendly kisses and hugs are part of the culture. This also adds to the explosive increase, also many elderly there. They say it's because of extensive use of olive oil in their cooking.

maybe. but what is the official statement of how Italy became so massive infected with the COVID-19? are there any explanations so far?
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March 08, 2020, 08:32:32 PM

So the WH downplays corona after banning travel early on while the WHO clearly stated not to restrict travel or trade?

And Trump is going to be hurt by corona by candidates that are for open borders and free health care for illegals instead of Americans?

I mean, I get that the overwhelming majority of people on this planet is mentally impaired, but come on.

If the above figures are correct of 1.9 million US ICU admissions (they do sound like a worse case scenario), that’s not something you can casually blow off. 
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March 08, 2020, 08:32:44 PM

In Italy, friendly kisses and hugs are part of the culture. This also adds to the explosive increase, also many elderly there. They say it's because of extensive use of olive oil in their cooking.

maybe. but what is the official statement of how Italy became so massive infected with the COVID-19? are there any explanations so far?

Idk if there is an official statement, but i'd say tourism. Also quite some italians from the lombardy region working in ski resorts in the southern west of austria, hosting many international guests.
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March 08, 2020, 08:36:24 PM

In Italy, friendly kisses and hugs are part of the culture. This also adds to the explosive increase, also many elderly there. They say it's because of extensive use of olive oil in their cooking.

maybe. but what is the official statement of how Italy became so massive infected with the COVID-19? are there any explanations so far?

no idea if there's an official statement,
but here's one 'explanation' https://summit.news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-patient-zero-in-italy-was-pakistani-migrant-who-refused-to-self-isolate/
idk if true, but again, sad
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March 08, 2020, 08:37:04 PM

Plan B’s latest tweet -

PlanB
@100trillionUSD

#bitcoin  S2F chart adjusted for today's "crash" ... nothing really happened, btc still spot on S2F track



https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1236741267440259072?s=21



Like most things lately..it works...till it don't....we will see...his intentions are good..but 'experts' are usually the 'death' of my dreams in life. (sorry...jaded) Sad

(Bitcoin: You merciless Bitch!) Sad

Brad
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