Remember all those wyckoff accumulation charts we saw in last year's mid year dip. It proved to be correct, I haven't seen any such analysis getting around now but things look similar. Has anybody seen any of that analysis done on this dip?
I seem to remember someone posting about it some days ago, basically saying that it looks good.
I was posting about it before when it looked like wyckoff accumulation on the 4hr chart, though unconfirmed, but this structure has now been broken with the recent drop:
Posting this again for some New Year Hopium. Recent bounce from $46K still looking like a "spring" for Wyckoff accumulation, even more so after creating new closing low on 4hr:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.tradingview.com%2Fsnapshots%2Fj%2FjoEoeORb.png&t=664&c=D0NsE4hMP8wwSg)
Based on the current price structure, it doesn't look like wyckoff to me, at least not on a line chart. On a candle chart, we'd be in Phase B at best, prior to creating a lower low:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fschool.stockcharts.com%2Flib%2Fexe%2Ffetch.php%3Fmedia%3Dmarket_analysis%3Athe_wyckoff_method%3Awyckoffaccumulation.png&t=664&c=qUsN23fATXFDEQ)
As for current outlook, I'm personally not seeing $40K-$46K range as providing much support given the volume gap, even if a dead cat bounce could occur from here at any moment:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.tradingview.com%2Fsnapshots%2Fm%2Fmjt1HP0y.png&t=664&c=tN03W6ifVkUxzw)
The $42.5K level is merely a "last line in the sand" before lower lows, similarly to how $46K acted as such after failing to find support and getting rejected by $48K MA support. The 0.236 fib retracement around $38K where volume lies and previous VPVR point of control around $33K-35K is more likely where a macro higher low would form imo, while taking more weeks to get there. Daily RSI is bearish, but not even oversold yet (like back in May) for reference sake, the Weekly RSI hasn't even turned bearish yet, as food for thought. There's plenty for room to the downside if price strength continues to weaken basically.
Ultimately price closed below the 50 Week MA again and the bears followed through, breaking both support trend-lines, as well as MA support. Doesn't look great to me anymore to put it simply. At least the on-chain data still looks good, but price structure looks pretty f**ked now. Truth is, Bitcoin has never been continually traded below the 50 Week MA within a bull market, so best to hope for in the mid-term would be further consolidation at higher levels. Still not seeing any argument for $20K-$25K levels, even if entirely possible now (70% drop from high to low), but otherwise not seeing any buyers at current prices either.
Ideally price drops hard and we get the crash over and done with as quickly as possible, somewhat regardless of how low it goes, rather than f**king around in no mans land. Just my opinion anyway.
I sent you a merit anyhow, even though I believe that you are overly pessimistic regarding the power of king daddy and the various fake outs.. ... and sure, you gave some good descriptions regarding your views and how you arrived at your views.. nonetheless, it seems to me that we have been here so many damned times that it is not even funny, and even AlcoHoDL's earlier post comparing early 2017 sentiment seemed to have similar kinds of technical arguments going on regarding the ONLY way is down.. blah blah blah..
Probably yes, I have a habit of being overly bullish at support and short-term relatively bearish when I don't see any, not going to deny that. For better or for worse, I'd prefer to average in around $46K-48K in the hope that it holds, and failing that, wait for sub $40K. Even if price spends a very limited amount of time below this level. So far I thought $42.5K wouldn't hold as support, so I'll stick to my theories for now. Quite likely price will bounce back to $45K soon enough, and from there can see if it will get rejected or hold, so no real loss not buying much of this particular dip imo if price strands a good chance at going lower, or higher.
I recall similar in April/May 2020 too (including the well-reasoned arguments that we would not likely see supra $10k for a couple more years).. and those guys did not do too well in terms of supra $10k coming a few months later, and then we know what ended up happening between September 2020 and April 2021, right?
I wouldn't compare this current price action to pre-halving sentiment. Personally I thought a dip back down to $8K was likely, but otherwise pretty split 50-50 on immediate up or down, otherwise remained bullish.
.. but yeah, if it goes down, buy some more (if you dare).. and even buy some here (if you dare), it will likely pay off quite well in the coming 1-9 months, and if 1-9 months does not work out, at least it should be good 4-10 years down the road (as a back up plan in case the next 1-9 months do not work out so well).
For sure no no arguments there, I still think this year will lead to higher highs, despite all the doom and gloomers out there talking of $20K, $10K and other nonsense. Still don't see any of that. Bare in mind I did previously consider the idea of dropping down to $30Ks, which to me would only confirm some neutral sideways trading for 12 months (between $30K and $70K), so this still stands for me. Unlike many others out there, the short-term bearish picture still doesn't make me long term bearish, as the price structure is completely different fortunately, that of a relatively neutral market in the mid-term.
Not that we are there yet, but my main issue with breaking through $40K is that the previous higher macro low of September becomes invalidated, so somewhat resets the structure back to neutral. Neutral is certainly not a bad thing either imo, at least not in Bitcoin land and being at higher levels. Neutral sideways trading has always led to up quickly enough, even if there is a short period of down in between.
I'm still in for the long-run, so there is no worries there. I'm otherwise averaging in with some shitcoin profits now that Bitcoin's market dominance is bouncing again, so no issues there for dip buying
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