Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

1K drop out of nowhere.

Had a private health check earlier (so outside of our useless NHS system which is laughable these days with wait times). Something I'd advise every one to do now and then.
What a girl who was doing that.

[greensheep]

1K drop out of nowhere.

stairs up, elevator down

[dragonvslinux]

Remember all those wyckoff accumulation charts we saw in last year's mid year dip. It proved to be correct, I haven't seen any such analysis getting around now but things look similar. Has anybody seen any of that analysis done on this dip?

I seem to remember someone posting about it some days ago, basically saying that it looks good.

I was posting about it before when it looked like wyckoff accumulation on the 4hr chart, though unconfirmed, but this structure has now been broken with the recent drop:

Posting this again for some New Year Hopium. Recent bounce from $46K still looking like a "spring" for Wyckoff accumulation, even more so after creating new closing low on 4hr:

Based on the current price structure, it doesn't look like wyckoff to me, at least not on a line chart. On a candle chart, we'd be in Phase B at best, prior to creating a lower low:



As for current outlook, I'm personally not seeing $40K-$46K range as providing much support given the volume gap, even if a dead cat bounce could occur from here at any moment:



The $42.5K level is merely a "last line in the sand" before lower lows, similarly to how $46K acted as such after failing to find support and getting rejected by $48K MA support. The 0.236 fib retracement around $38K where volume lies and previous VPVR point of control around $33K-35K is more likely where a macro higher low would form imo, while taking more weeks to get there. Daily RSI is bearish, but not even oversold yet (like back in May) for reference sake, the Weekly RSI hasn't even turned bearish yet, as food for thought. There's plenty for room to the downside if price strength continues to weaken basically.

Ultimately price closed below the 50 Week MA again and the bears followed through, breaking both support trend-lines, as well as MA support. Doesn't look great to me anymore to put it simply. At least the on-chain data still looks good, but price structure looks pretty f**ked now. Truth is, Bitcoin has never been continually traded below the 50 Week MA within a bull market, so best to hope for in the mid-term would be further consolidation at higher levels. Still not seeing any argument for $20K-$25K levels, even if entirely possible now (70% drop from high to low), but otherwise not seeing any buyers at current prices either.

Ideally price drops hard and we get the crash over and done with as quickly as possible, somewhat regardless of how low it goes, rather than f**king around in no mans land. Just my opinion anyway.

I sent you a merit anyhow, even though I believe that you are overly pessimistic regarding the power of king daddy and the various fake outs.. ... and sure, you gave some good descriptions regarding your views and how you arrived at your views.. nonetheless, it seems to me that we have been here so many damned times that it is not even funny, and even AlcoHoDL's earlier post comparing early 2017 sentiment seemed to have similar kinds of technical arguments going on regarding the ONLY way is down.. blah blah blah..

Probably yes, I have a habit of being overly bullish at support and short-term relatively bearish when I don't see any, not going to deny that. For better or for worse, I'd prefer to average in around $46K-48K in the hope that it holds, and failing that, wait for sub $40K. Even if price spends a very limited amount of time below this level. So far I thought $42.5K wouldn't hold as support, so I'll stick to my theories for now. Quite likely price will bounce back to $45K soon enough, and from there can see if it will get rejected or hold, so no real loss not buying much of this particular dip imo if price strands a good chance at going lower, or higher.

I recall similar in April/May 2020 too (including the well-reasoned arguments that we would not likely see supra $10k for a couple more years).. and those guys did not do too well in terms of supra $10k coming a few months later, and then we know what ended up happening between September 2020 and April 2021, right?

I wouldn't compare this current price action to pre-halving sentiment. Personally I thought a dip back down to $8K was likely, but otherwise pretty split 50-50 on immediate up or down, otherwise remained bullish.

.. but yeah, if it goes down, buy some more (if you dare).. and even buy some here (if you dare), it will likely pay off quite well in the coming 1-9 months, and if 1-9 months does not work out, at least it should be good 4-10 years down the road (as a back up plan in case the next 1-9 months do not work out so well).

For sure no no arguments there, I still think this year will lead to higher highs, despite all the doom and gloomers out there talking of $20K, $10K and other nonsense. Still don't see any of that. Bare in mind I did previously consider the idea of dropping down to $30Ks, which to me would only confirm some neutral sideways trading for 12 months (between $30K and $70K), so this still stands for me. Unlike many others out there, the short-term bearish picture still doesn't make me long term bearish, as the price structure is completely different fortunately, that of a relatively neutral market in the mid-term.

Not that we are there yet, but my main issue with breaking through $40K is that the previous higher macro low of September becomes invalidated, so somewhat resets the structure back to neutral. Neutral is certainly not a bad thing either imo, at least not in Bitcoin land and being at higher levels. Neutral sideways trading has always led to up quickly enough, even if there is a short period of down in between.

I'm still in for the long-run, so there is no worries there. I'm otherwise averaging in with some shitcoin profits now that Bitcoin's market dominance is bouncing again, so no issues there for dip buying  

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin 'inventor' will face forgery claims over his Satoshi Nakamoto proof, rules High Court.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/06/craig_wright_satoshi_nakamoto_forgery_claims/

[BitcoinBunny]

Bitcoin 'inventor' will face forgery claims over his Satoshi Nakamoto proof, rules High Court.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/06/craig_wright_satoshi_nakamoto_forgery_claims/

What a complete idiot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Tick tock, tick tock... ⏲️

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/07/chinas-property-problems-spread-to-once-healthy-developers-like-shimao.html

Torque's Prediction:

1. China's over-leveraged, mega Ponzi property market will start to finally, really implode by mid 2022. This will be the catalyst for another possible worldwide recession (did we ever leave one?)

2. Wealthy investors and hedge funds with insider knowledge will start front running these events, buying up Bitcoin starting Dec 2021 and resuming first week of January 2022. They likely already know what is coming and are front running it now.

3. To further fuel the fire, we could finally see a new U.S. Bitcoin ETF in Q1/Q2 of 2022. (this already happened Dec 2021)

4. We could see a new Bitcoin ATH and blow off top come mid year 2022.

5. China will of course retaliate by shutting down all onshore crypto exchanges, popping the Bitcoin bubble. Once again.   The bears will then take over. China PBOC will then print yuan like a mofo and bail out any and all Chinese property developers.

You heard it here first. Just doing this for funzies. Typing it here to see how well my prediction plays out.

[jojo69]

[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/cloudatio/status/1479039788967763971

[dragonvslinux]

Just an idea and some hopium for a recovery.

I thought I should add some context here, as only seems fair, or at least considerate. Last time the Daily RSI went into oversold conditions was May 18th (circled), prior to dropping 30% to close at around $36K. The RSI last closed in oversold conditions 5 days later (May 23rd) at $34K. Price then went lower to close below $30K, while the strength of the price generally increased during this entire multi-month period.



For starters, no I don't see a 30% drop, as price hasn't quickly rallied 6x within a few months, instead has merely doubled. But that said $34K or $36K I wouldn't rule out at this point, as is only -15 to -20%. As a reminder, trading of the RSI directly isn't advised, or at least not buying in when prices becomes oversold, but when the strength leaves oversold conditions. Ie, buying at $34K instead of $43K, or otherwise trading/buying when there is bullish divergence. Take the advise as you will, as not going to argue that buying back in May @ $43K wasn't a bad position for a decent discount, even if price did go significantly lower.

In this sense, RSI closing back into the bearish (30-40 level) from <30 would be a bullish sign, probably somewhere above $42.5K, but merely being oversold isn't inherently bullish what so ever, usually the opposite is true to be honest. On the other hand, the CMF hasn't been this low since March 2020, so this appears to be more of a bullish sign than price getting oversold on Daily time-frame imo. Patience is a virtue.

Edit: I see price just wicked down to $40.5K, good to see no mans land of $40K-$46K being covered so quickly (thought it could take weeks to be honest). Sub $40K and can start being bullish again 

I'm personally not seeing $40K-$46K range as providing much support given the volume gap, even if a dead cat bounce could occur from here at any moment

[Paashaas]

It's weekend that usually means more dumping.

Prepair for $35k - $40k range that would be the final bottom.

Relief rally next week, i guess.

[vapourminer]

Prepair for $35k - $40k range that would be the final bottom.

thems rookie numbers

just wait til proudhon gets here with MANLY (err aplacaly?) numbers. you will know real shame then.

[d_eddie]

This needs a #nohomo tag. Quickly.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvjDr8KKtsE&t=155s

wut wut

[cAPSLOCK]

Maybe some of your technical wizards like Dragon or Toxic et al can fix my errors here or fill in the blanks, but it looks to me lioke we are piercing the most liberally drawn trendline possible:



In the end I will be SUPER surprised if we are entering a new Bear (that is a capital 'B' as in 'Bitcoin Winter')... but the chance of it is bigger than ever so far in this "cycle".  So my "Cycles are on the way out" thesis is on the verge of being tested.

I should come up with some numbers, but I do not know how to do it.  At the very minimum I do not think we see a 80%+ pullback from ATH.

What is that umm...  We do not go below 13.8k?

See thjat's the other interesting metric.  That is the pullback based on the minimum % from other cycles.  But that also takes us to below the previous cycles ATH.  Since we have not gone up the same sort of multiples as the past, I don't see us going down that way either. 

I continue to propose that that model is breaking.

I think we see bears that last something like the last 6 month one did, and then probably new ATH again, but most likely not the same sort of huge multiple...  things like 3x instead of 30x.

LET'S GO BITCOIN!

[BobLawblaw]

This needs a #nohomo tag. Quickly.

Why? Dude looks like a balless eunuch from the photo.

No girth or visible mass whatsoever.

Might as well have a vagene.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think it’s looking pretty obvious now that the bull market is over. It shouldn’t bother any of you on a long time preference. I sold nothing in the 2017 bull & regretted it for ages. Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……



We're probably going to 30k in the next 12 months, I will buy back what I sold there. If not, no problem, 75% of stash locked away.

I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.

[nakamura12]

I am glad that bitcoin's price didn't decrease a lot. I have 0.002 btc at that time and it's value in my fiat is around 6k to 7k where It wouldn't be enough for buying supplies for rebuilding the house as I call it home. Well as of now, internet connection is accessible and can be used for a limited amount of time mostly at 11pm to 5am where I managed to convert all the btc I have left to buy materials. I am a bit disappointed that the electricity will be restored at the end of January which is a bit longer than anticipated. THANK YOU BITCOIN AND SATOSHI NAKAMOTO.